Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[Nithoniniel]

I'd like to see what kind of an upgrade on decence a package of Nylander+Gardiner could get us.

Not good enough. The guys we'd like to target are not for sale, even if we include Gardiner. The tier below are guys I wouldn't trade Nylander for alone.

That's not a good avenue to find improvement. We need to be smarter about it. We need to develop our youngsters, and find our own Nate Schmidt. Build a defense based on depth and not having flaws, rather than having top-end options to carry us.

 

[Sypher04]

Except Ehlers wasn't paid for what he did in his contract year. He signed his deal before year 3 of his ELC.

Ehlers had a 0.66ppg up to that point in his career. Nylander has 0.75 over his last two seasons (same sample size as Ehlers).

I didn't say he was paid for year 3. I know he was paid after year two. 0.66 vs 0.75 with no context isn't especially meaningful. I have no idea what Ehlers usage looked like his first season.

What I know is Ehlers, in his contract year, scored more points and 9 more goals. Goalscorers tend to get paid a bit more so I can quite easily claim his 29 vs 20 edge on goal scoring negate the point per game difference.

The sample they are working off is small for both and they do have some differences but Ehlers is still quite easily the best comparable to Nylander

 

[Morgs]

It's gonna be today to upstage the Kawhi news.

 

[Mess]

Except Ehlers wasn't paid for what he did in his contract year. He signed his deal before year 3 of his ELC.

Ehlers had a 0.66ppg up to that point in his career. Nylander has 0.75 over his last two seasons (same sample size as Ehlers).

You're punishing Ehlers because he made the NHL first as an NHL regular a year before Nylander. Nylander was an AHLer while Ehlers was a NHLer.

So you're comparing 19 & 20 year old Ehlers (seasons 2015-16 & 2016-17) vs 20 & 21 year old Nylander (2016-17 & 2017-18) years statistically and comparing apples to oranges..

 

[Duke Silver]

I didn't say he was paid for year 3. I know he was paid after year two. 0.66 vs 0.75 with no context isn't especially meaningful. I have no idea what Ehlers usage looked like his first season.

What I know is Ehlers, in his contract year, scored more points and 9 more goals. Goalscorers tend to get paid a bit more so I can quite easily claim his 29 vs 20 edge on goal scoring negate the point per game difference.

The sample they are working off is small for both and they do have some differences but Ehlers is still quite easily the best comparable to Nylander

Is it really a contract year if his contract was signed before the year started? Contract years are typically those where the player is playing for a new contract.

Ehlers' contract was negotiated based on his production-to-date (Year 1+2 of his ELC). So we can't retroactively use his Year 3 production to peg Nylander lower. I thought 0.66 vs 0.75 brought MORE context to the conversation, as it accounts for pre-signing production.

I just think you're going to be disappointed if you're expecting Nylander to sign for $6m per (or $6.36m when adjusted for inflation), when his production prior to the signing of a new deal is superior. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Duke Silver]

You're punishing Ehlers because he made the NHL first as an NHL regular a year before Nylander. Nylander was an AHLer while Ehlers was a NHLer.

So you're comparing 19 & 20 year old Ehlers (seasons 2015-16 & 2016-17) vs 20 & 21 year old Nylander (2016-17 & 2017-18) years statistically and comparing apples to oranges..

I'm not punishing anyone?

Just pointing out that the Ehlers deal was signed before Year 3 of his ELC, so using his Year 3 production in an argument for Nylander signing for a similar amount ignores the context behind what went into the negotiation of Ehlers' deal.

I'm essentially saying they're different situations and not good comparables unless you account for the differences. So yes, apples to oranges.

 

[Mess]

Nik Ehlers

REGULAR SEASON STATS
SEASON	TEAM	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	%	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	GTG	TOI/G	PROD
'15-'16	WPG	72	15	23	38	3	21	167	9.0	4	7	0	0	0	--	16:06	30:30
'16-'17	WPG	82	25	39	64	1	38	204	12.3	5	7	0	0	4	--	17:29	22:24
'17-'18	WPG	82	29	31	60	14	26	231	12.6	7	6	0	0	7	--	16:05	21:59
Career	236	69	93	162	18	85	602	11.5	16	20	0	0	11	0	--	--

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Willam Nylander

REGULAR SEASON STATS
SEASON	TEAM	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	%	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	GTG	TOI/G	PROD
'15-'16	TOR	22	6	7	13	1	4	43	14.0	1	2	0	0	1	--	16:20	27:39
'16-'17	TOR	81	22	39	61	-3	32	205	10.7	9	17	0	0	2	--	16:01	21:16
'17-'18	TOR	82	20	41	61	20	10	184	10.9	5	7	0	0	8	--	16:41	22:26
Career	185	48	87	135	18	46	432	11.1	15	26	0	0	11	0	--	--

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm going to agree with the @Duke Silver here, I don't think year 3 of Ehlers ELC should be used because it was not a factor in what got him that contract.

At the same time, I think that he was probably paid mostly for what he did in year 2. That was a 64 point performance, so slightly ahead of Nylander. However, Nylander have two of those performances which means that he has shown that he can repeat. I'd think the threat of it being a flash in the pan for Ehlers could be something that restricts his contract a bit.

As such, I'd put a Nylander estimate at a bit higher than Ehlers, and I would also include the cap increase. If he signs for 6 years, I'd think the AAV would be somewhere around 6.75 or something like that.

 

[Mess]

I'm going to agree with the @Duke Silver here, I don't think year 3 of Ehlers ELC should be used because it was not a factor in what got him that contract.

At the same time, I think that he was probably paid mostly for what he did in year 2. That was a 64 point performance, so slightly ahead of Nylander. However, Nylander have two of those performances which means that he has shown that he can repeat. I'd think the threat of it being a flash in the pan for Ehlers could be something that restricts his contract a bit.

As such, I'd put a Nylander estimate at a bit higher than Ehlers, and I would also include the cap increase. If he signs for 6 years, I'd think the AAV would be somewhere around 6.75 or something like that.

Last 2 seasons stats combined.

Ehlers 54 goals 124 points vs Nylander 42 goals 122 points but Nylander is > Ehlers as more proven?

The rising cap and thus C.H% of cap has a far bigger impact as Ehlers (C.H.%

: 8.00 ) of $76 mil cap = AAV $6.0 mil vs Nylander (C.H.%

: 8.00) of $80 mil ceiling = $6.4 mil AAV to adjust for a +$4mil cap bump between signings, but using the same C.H.%

: 8.00 for both based on similar points/PPG stats based on passed 2 years.

Ehlers and Nylander taken 1 draft spot apart, putting up similar stats the past 2 years are perfect comparables for each other contracts.. If 8% is the C.H% of both then Nylander gains by waiting because of the rising cap not his own stats > Ehlers. Willie gets +$400k more per season by the cap rising by $4 mil, despite scoring less goals and less points than Ehhers over the same time frame of 2016-17 & 2017-18 seasons for both.

 

[Sypher04]

Is it really a contract year if his contract was signed before the year started? Contract years are typically those where the player is playing for a new contract.

Ehlers' contract was negotiated based on his production-to-date (Year 1+2 of his ELC). So we can't retroactively use his Year 3 production to peg Nylander lower. I thought 0.66 vs 0.75 brought MORE context to the conversation, as it accounts for pre-signing production.

I just think you're going to be disappointed if you're expecting Nylander to sign for $6m per (or $6.36m when adjusted for inflation), when his production prior to the signing of a new deal is superior. That's all I'm saying.

I'm calling year 2 his contract year because he signed an extension between 2 and 3. Not the typical definition but I think it makes sense. I can see why that was confusing tho as i accidentally typed 29 goals instead of 25

 

[Nithoniniel]

Last 2 seasons stats combined.

Again. Ehlers contract was signed before the last season, so this is a pointless exercise.

... but Nylander is > Ehlers ?

That's not what is argued here. We are talking about contracts.

 

[Duke Silver]

I'm going to agree with the @Duke Silver here, I don't think year 3 of Ehlers ELC should be used because it was not a factor in what got him that contract.

At the same time, I think that he was probably paid mostly for what he did in year 2. That was a 64 point performance, so slightly ahead of Nylander. However, Nylander have two of those performances which means that he has shown that he can repeat. I'd think the threat of it being a flash in the pan for Ehlers could be something that restricts his contract a bit.

As such, I'd put a Nylander estimate at a bit higher than Ehlers, and I would also include the cap increase. If he signs for 6 years, I'd think the AAV would be somewhere around 6.75 or something like that.

This is around where I have Nylander pegged: 6.75m to 7m.

Curious why people feel Ehlers is a better comparable than Pastrnak, who got $6.67m?

Nylander over the life of his ELC: 185GP, 0.73ppg
Pastrnak over the life of his ELC: 172GP, 0.72ppg

Pastrnak signed for $6.67m (8.9% of cap)
Nylander at 8.9% of $79.5 cap = $7.08m

Then you reel the $7.08m back a little since Pastrnak (0.93ppg) had a more impressive contract year than Nylander (0.74ppg)... $6.75m seems about right ($7m if you're going 8 years instead of the 6 that Pastrnak got).

 

[Sypher04]

I'm going to agree with the @Duke Silver here, I don't think year 3 of Ehlers ELC should be used because it was not a factor in what got him that contract.

At the same time, I think that he was probably paid mostly for what he did in year 2. That was a 64 point performance, so slightly ahead of Nylander. However, Nylander have two of those performances which means that he has shown that he can repeat. I'd think the threat of it being a flash in the pan for Ehlers could be something that restricts his contract a bit.

As such, I'd put a Nylander estimate at a bit higher than Ehlers, and I would also include the cap increase. If he signs for 6 years, I'd think the AAV would be somewhere around 6.75 or something like that.

You're actually agreeing with me. I typo'd when I wrote 29 goals. It should have said 25. My argument was saying year 2 was essentially his contract year since he signed extension between 2 and 3. To be clear, I never have included year 3 in my argument.

I also agree on all the rest which is why in most discussion I tend to bump Nylander from 6.36m (same 8% as Ehlers signed for) to 6.5m instead, but I could see as high as 6.75m

 

[Nithoniniel]

Sounds like we all pretty much agree then, with a bit variation.

In the end, I don't care about the AAV. Unless it starts to touch something like $8M. The variations we are dealing here will only be the variations in what kind of mistakes we can survive on more replaceable pieces. That's what will define our cap management in my opinion. If the contracts for the big three end up at a higher AAV than we hope, that just means that we won't have any room to make mistakes, like the third year of Marleau's contract might be.

 

[Sypher04]

This is around where I have Nylander pegged: 6.75m to 7m.

Curious why people feel Ehlers is a better comparable than Pastrnak, who got $6.67m?

Nylander over the life of his ELC: 185GP, 0.73ppg
Pastrnak over the life of his ELC: 172GP, 0.72ppg

Pastrnak signed for $6.67m (8.9% of cap)
Nylander at 8.9% of $79.5 cap = $7.08m

Then you reel the $7.08m back a little since Pastrnak (0.93ppg) had a more impressive contract year than Nylander (0.74ppg)... $6.75m seems about right ($7m if you're going 8 years instead of the 6 that Pastrnak got).

I see Ehlers as the floor. And pastrnak as the ceiling. But I think career point per game is little unfair as the primary number to derive contract value from. Goalscoring is valued at a premium and coming off his elc pastrnak had just scored 34 goals (and 70 points) in just 75 games. Given this I currently see nylander closer to Ehlers end of the scale than Pastrnak.

 

[Notsince67]

I see Ehlers as the floor. And pastrnak as the ceiling. But I think career point per game is little unfair as the primary number to derive contract value from. Goalscoring is valued at a premium and coming off his elc pastrnak had just scored 34 goals (and 70 points) in just 75 games. Given this I currently see nylander closer to Ehlers end of the scale than Pastrnak.

Tavares took a discount at 11. If Matthews is asked to take a discount (from what I don't know), he might insist that the pain in shared among all new contracts.
Nylander might be asked to accept less than the numbers seen here. This contract will likely have Shanahan's fingers all over it. He is said to get along well with ex-teammate Michael Nylander. There were some questions pre-draft regarding Willy's character which Shanny publicly dismissed after meeting with them both. I doubt that Willy will make a large issue on a contract by sitting out if he doesn't get every penny.

 

[PromisedLand]

William Nylander is the last player who will bite into the Leafs cap space

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I’m thinking this goes right to start of training camp.

 

[biotk]

Again. Ehlers contract was signed before the last season, so this is a pointless exercise.

Yes, it would make no sense to even look at Ehlers for last year. He signed with a year ago because he was reducing risk. If he got big time injured or had a terrible year he was still signed for 42M going forward.

 

[Crease Master]

Looking at the Nylander situation I think the Leafs are in much better position with his contract than some people think. For all the dazzling feats of skill we've seen out of him you still need to remember that he's a 20 goal winger playing with one of the best centers in the NHL, who's been in the coach's doghouse on occasion. I see Nylander as a 5 million dollar winger coming out of elc and not a penny more. If he sees himself as an 8x8 guy then he can pretty much rot on the sidelines while Kapanen or Johnsson score 20 goals on Matthew's wing.

 

[Walshy7]

Looking at the Nylander situation I think the Leafs are in much better position with his contract than some people think. For all the dazzling feats of skill we've seen out of him you still need to remember that he's a 20 goal winger playing with one of the best centers in the NHL, who's been in the coach's doghouse on occasion. I see Nylander as a 5 million dollar winger coming out of elc and not a penny more. If he sees himself as an 8x8 guy then he can pretty much rot on the sidelines while Kapanen or Johnsson score 20 goals on Matthew's wing.

Nick Ehlers had 30 goals in 2 seasons before signing his contract that averages out to 15 goals a season and he got $6x6 but yep crease master knows whats what $5M and not a penny over. Nylander for reference in his first 2 (full) seasons has 42.

Also Matthews scoring went down with Nylander off his line while Nylander stayed relatively the same.

 

[DarkKnight]

I don't see the Leafs giving him 7, I'm in the barely 6 camp, 8 is absurd. Whatever, fact he still hasn't signed is indicative that there is a gap between the sides. Hold firm Kyle, a bridge isn't the worst idea in the world with this situation.

 

[DarkKnight]

Willie has also lost one key argument, namely he's a for sure winger on this team now, he's isn't evolving into a center with Tavares around, so there's some projection leverage gone. This new reality may be holding things up as well.

 

[Garthinater]

Nylander used to be my favourite leaf but I've lost a bit of love for him. Just seems to be missing something because he has all the skill in the world. I'll be honest, I don't think he is worth even close to 7 mil with the way he has performed. Also, with the signing of tavares, I'm not sure if he'll ever become a centre which lessons his value imo. I'd say 6 flat

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander used to be my favourite leaf but I've lost a bit of love for him. Just seems to be missing something because he has all the skill in the world. I'll be honest, I don't think he is worth even close to 7 mil with the way he has performed. Also, with the signing of tavares, I'm not sure if he'll ever become a centre which lessons his value imo. I'd say 6 flat

What does "with the way he has performed" mean? You make it sound like he's coming off a rough season.