What's the accuracy of QMJHL draft?

[Nordiques1979]

Hello, what is the rate of first round 1st QMHL draft to become NHL players? If you take Joshua Roy, does he has real chance to make it to NHL one day?

Does first rounders in QMJHL become average junior players or does in recent history we have seen 1 overall pick become top draft pick in NHL?

Thanks

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[Wintersun]

Well.. in 2017 you had

Lafreniere (top 3 lock)
Pelletier (potential 1st round)
Poulin (potential 1st round)
Légaré (top 3 rounds)
Mercer (potential top 2 rounds)

as well as guys like Guenette, Parent, Simoneau who could very well be drafted in the NHL as well..

In the 2018 draft, it looks like Lapierre will be a first rounder. Villeneuve and Poirier look like NHL prospect, Bourque already had 50+ points at 16 so will be drafted for sure, same with Patrick Guay I'd say... Lukas Cormier will be drafted for sure after his wonderful season in the top 3 rounds I'd say for sure, Rochette as well.

So basically, yeah... Top players in the Q draft have a good chance at being drafted in the NHL.

As for Joshua Roy, for exemple, I think he's a lock to be drafted in the NHL, but whether or not he becomes a real solid NHLer and gets drafted high in the NHL depends on him improving his skating and consistency in compete level. But based on what I saw at the Canada Games, he's one of the best 2003s in Canada.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Hello, what is the rate of first round 1st QMHL draft to become NHL players? If you take Joshua Roy, does he has real chance to make it to NHL one day?

Does first rounders in QMJHL become average junior players or does in recent history we have seen 1 overall pick become top draft pick in NHL?

Thanks

go to eliteprospects and look at the past drafts, and soft pts by NHL and you can have a look.


In the past 10 years we have MacKinnon, Lafreniere, Luke Green, BO Groulx, Veleno, Danielle Audette, Nic Roy, etc. MacK is in the NHL, Veleno is a 1st round pick, Laf looks to be heading to the NHL, and the rest are all signed to NHL contracts. Roy has a few games in and Audette and Green are in the AHL.

Realistically 50/50 or better to get at least a game in the NHL. If we go back further we have Gormley, Yann Sauve, Alex Grant, and Simon Despres who went 1st in the 00s and all ended up playing at least 1 NHL game.


2001 Bernier - NHL Yes
02 - Bourret No
03 - Crosby - Yes
04 - Sheppard - Yes
05 - Grant - Yes
06 - Sauve - Yes
07 - Despres - Yes
08 - Gormley - Yes
09 - Archambault - NO
10 - Fournier - No
11- MacKinnon - Yes
12- Audette - No
13 - Roy - Yes
14 - Green - No but Signed
15 - Veleno - No but 1st rounder
16 - Groulx - 2nd rounder
17 - Lafreniere - projected no 1 pick
18 - Lapierre - QMJHL offensive rookie of year

So 9/18 since 2001 have played 1 NHL game. I would be confident Veleno, Lafreniere, and Groulx will get at least 1 game. Green and Lapierre could, so we could see as many a 14/18 in that span play at least 1 NHL game.