What's going on in the US? Part 14 [Mod note in OP]

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Devilsfan992

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Apr 14, 2012
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According to Worldometer, deaths are down 41% from the month of June! Will the trend continue, or will Delta cause deaths to flatten?
 
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Dubi Doo

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This is why it's so important that areas hit a high threshold of their population vaccinated:
Data: Delta variant is not sparking mass hospitalizations in England

"Data from June 21-27 documented 1.91 hospitalizations per 100,000 new cases, staying basically unchanged from the previous week’s rate of 1.92 hospitalizations per 100,000 new cases. "
Hospitalizations will likely increase a bit since case numbers are still increasing in the UK, but the fact they've stayed steady for this long is a good sign that they will not increase dramatically.

Unfortunately, I'd assume many of those lowly vaccinated states aren't getting to enough of those middle aged adults to see a similar outcome as the UK, though I am unable to find state specific numbers on those age 30+ and are vaccinated.
 
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flyfysher

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Unfortunately, I'd assume many of those lowly vaccinated states aren't getting to enough of those middle aged adults to see a similar outcome as the UK, though I am unable to find state specific numbers on those age 30+ and are vaccinated.

I am closely watching my state’s numbers in terms of Delta variant infections, localities, vaccinations, hospitalizations and mortality. We are really just in the beginning phase of this and should have a much clearer picture in the next 4-6 weeks.
 

Lt Dan

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OOOOOOOOOF!
Remember when we were 3-3 within the last 2 weeks?

11-3 now

upload_2021-7-2_9-12-30.png


The good news here is that the baby blue is shrinking
upload_2021-7-2_9-14-5.png

and yes I am going here
 

UglyPuckling

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May 14, 2021
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According to Worldometer, deaths are down 41% from the month of June! Will the trend continue, or will Delta cause deaths to flatten?
The one graph I saw (Washington Post I think) looked like deaths (7-day average) were already flattening in roughly the last half of June. It was a little hard to tell because the timeline went back to the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), so it was a large graph and the flat part of the line (the far right of the graph which represents June) that represented the 7-day average was kind of short. Hope I'm wrong about this. Maybe someone else noticed this or already posted it?
 

Lt Dan

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The one graph I saw (Washington Post I think) looked like deaths (7-day average) were already flattening in roughly the last half of June. It was a little hard to tell because the timeline went back to the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), so it was a large graph and the flat part of the line (the far right of the graph which represents June) that represented the 7-day average was kind of short. Hope I'm wrong about this. Maybe someone else noticed this or already posted it?
Deaths are the most difficult metric to track. They are the least timely and the past is often adjusted upward retroactively

I personally track hospitalizations the most . I think it is the most timely and accurate metric
 
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UglyPuckling

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Deaths are the most difficult metric to track. They are the least timely and the past is often adjusted upward retroactively

I personally track hospitalizations the most . I think it is the most timely and accurate metric

I track all of the metrics (cases, hospitalizations, deaths), but the point you mentioned has merit.

Based on reading various articles, I do see that a few states (counties/regions might be more accurate) are seeing some increase in hospitalizations and hospital officials have noted that its because of the Delta variant and that its effecting younger adults. Not too surprising, its in locations where vaccination rates are low. I'm not saying its widespread at this time, but it seems like this is something to watch closely which I expect officials are in fact doing.

The map you show (top of #933), are they using hospitalizations as one of their metrics or criteria for ranking & color coding?

Update - I looked it up. So it appears the Covid Act Now site tracks ICU capacity but not hospitalization. See the excerpt from the website below.

Risk levels & key metrics

Covid Act Now uses six key metrics to assess COVID across U.S. states, metros, and counties. Three of these—daily new cases (incidence), infection rate (RT) and positive test rate—assess a location's overall risk level. The other three—ICU capacity used, % vaccinated and vulnerability—reflect a location's ability to protect itself and recover from COVID. Below, learn more about each metric and how it is assessed.
 
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Lt Dan

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I track all of the metrics (cases, hospitalizations, deaths), but the point you mentioned has merit.

Based on reading various articles, I do see that a few states (counties/regions might be more accurate) are seeing some increase in hospitalizations and hospital officials have noted that its because of the Delta variant and that its effecting younger adults. Not too surprising, its in locations where vaccination rates are low. I'm not saying its widespread at this time, but it seems like this is something to watch closely which I expect officials are in fact doing.

The map you show (top of #933), are they using hospitalizations as one of their metrics or criteria for ranking & color coding?
This is the site
U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker


This is how they explain their metrics
U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker
 

UglyPuckling

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You are very welcome. I like that site mostly because it is easy.
We were really close to an all yellow US and well.....the delta variant has crash our party
Yes, you are right about that.

I just took a look at the COVID ACT NOW website and noticed that Texas turned orange. Just lovely, but not surprising.
 

TaLoN

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Minnesota hasn't reached 60% vaccination yet, but the good news is the Twin Cities metro area, it's mostly around 70% or better. Thus the overall protection is probably better than the State color on the map indicates.

Population centers are much more important vaccination total-wise than rural areas...I just wish those in rural areas wouldn't be so complacent though.
 
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Lt Dan

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Yes, you are right about that.

I just took a look at the COVID ACT NOW website and noticed that Texas turned orange. Just lovely, but not surprising.
It is happening in a lot of places

California is yellow , but it's population centers have gone orange
upload_2021-7-2_10-28-36.png
upload_2021-7-2_10-34-22.png

This is my county about 3.2 million people . We are orange on the map for risk and the middle blue for vacc


20210702_103221.jpg



20210702_103252.jpg
 
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HabsAddict

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Yes, you are right about that.

I just took a look at the COVID ACT NOW website and noticed that Texas turned orange. Just lovely, but not surprising.
Covid act now...interesting site.

I think R values is one if the best indicator for our fight against covid. Sadly, it's rarely used.
 

Devilsfan992

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Apr 14, 2012
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Covid act now...interesting site.

I think R values is one if the best indicator for our fight against covid. Sadly, it's rarely used.

R value needs to used with context as it can be > 1 even when cases are very low. It's definitely important though to follow.
 

Devilsfan992

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Apr 14, 2012
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The one graph I saw (Washington Post I think) looked like deaths (7-day average) were already flattening in roughly the last half of June. It was a little hard to tell because the timeline went back to the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), so it was a large graph and the flat part of the line (the far right of the graph which represents June) that represented the 7-day average was kind of short. Hope I'm wrong about this. Maybe someone else noticed this or already posted it?

I haven't seen the graph, but this should be expected as the scale of the graph takes into account huge drops from the peak. A drop from 3000 --> 1500 is the same as a drop from 400 --> 200. One is more visible than the other.

In other news, we're under 250 deaths for the 1st time since the pandemic started.
 

UglyPuckling

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May 14, 2021
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I haven't seen the graph, but this should be expected as the scale of the graph takes into account huge drops from the peak. A drop from 3000 --> 1500 is the same as a drop from 400 --> 200. One is more visible than the other.

In other news, we're under 250 deaths for the 1st time since the pandemic started.
Yes, that's true. When you have really big numbers, a significant drop is very easy to spot because the line pitches downward in a very visible way. When you have much smaller numbers and much smaller deltas (either up or down), the differences/trends are harder to spot. That is why I took a pretty cautious tone in my post. I think I saw that graph in here a few pages back (iirc) btw.

I think we all hope that what is being observed in post #945 and the resulting concerns that health officials have doesn't become more widespread in the fall. Personally I'd feel more comfortable if vaccination percentages were higher i.e., rather safe than sorry. For states to have just a 35 - 40% vaccination rate (fully vaccinated) at this point in time (6 1/2 months after vaccines were first started) I'd think is underwhelming.
 

DarrenBanks56

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May 16, 2005
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85 teens, staffers get coronavirus at summer camp that didn't require masks or check vaccine status






The pandemic isn't over people... especially for those who are not vaccinated. A summer super spreader event that could've been avoided if people would just get vaccinated...
my 8 year old just had the flu for a week.
and its because the summer camp didnt have masks for teachers or kids.
all school year no viruses. then boom. one week at camp and shes sick. not covid tho. That was the first they tested her for. that and strep.
 
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