What's going on in the US? Part 13 [Mod note in OP]

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Dubi Doo

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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/got...r-lifting-indoor-covid-mask-mandates-now.html

former head of FDA wants indoor mask mandates gone through summer, but is open to them being reimposed in the winter
Not an outlandish take. We dont know how long the vaccines are protective for. Variants will impact that as well. It may depend how many people take the boosters, which will likely be less than how many are taking the original vaccines.

Still, it's all speculation at this point. Hopefully we're leaving this pandemic behind us for good. The rest of the world, however, eekkk....
 

dortt

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Not an outlandish take. We dont know how long the vaccines are protective for. Variants will impact that as well. It may depend how many people take the boosters, which will likely be less than how many are taking the original vaccines.

Still, it's all speculation at this point. Hopefully we're leaving this pandemic behind us for good. The rest of the world, however, eekkk....

Hopefully, the annual vaccine proves more popular than the flu vaccine does
 
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JMCx4

Censorship is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
Sep 3, 2017
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Hopefully, the annual vaccine proves more popular than the flu vaccine does
And hopefully I win the lottery every week for the next year. I'm OK with the minimum jackpot for Weeks 2 thru 52, no need to get greedy.
 

Hoek

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May 12, 2003
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Hopefully, the annual vaccine proves more popular than the flu vaccine does
I think part of what makes the flu vaccine unpopular is its widely varying effectiveness (also the fact that we've lived with the flu for so long many people don't see the big deal, hence the "it's just a flu" talk now). COVID-19 has proven to be a far more predictable virus so I expect any booster to be quite solid.
 

TaLoN

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Yeah I was more making the point that it isn't 100% "back to normal" here.
I'm sure there will be businesses that require it for a while after the official mandates end.

How long? That's the real question.

We're looking at a July 1st or 70% vaccinated adult population, which ever comes first, for the end of the official mask mandate in Minnesota... who knows how many businesses continue their requirements and for how long after they require them?

I'm just glad that we're going to be fully open on May 28th otherwise. No capacity limits or other restrictions.
 

Devilsfan992

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Apr 14, 2012
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Growth! .01% :sarcasm:

upload_2021-5-7_16-41-16.png
 
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Lt Dan

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Sep 13, 2018
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Didn't see this posted
COVID-19 US death toll as high as 905,000, worldwide is double official estimates, study claims

The worldwide COVID-19 death toll is more than double the official count of 3.24 million, a controversial new study estimates, and the U.S. is no exception.
More than 905,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the U.S., 57% more than the official tally, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington said Thursday in a new analysis. That’s more than any other country.
The official U.S. toll is about 580,000, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics.
Worldwide the total is close to 7 million, which is more than double the official toll of 3.24 million, as recorded by Johns Hopkins University.
Looking at excess mortality between March 2020 through May 3, 2021, the researchers compared that to what would normally happen in a year without a pandemic, then made allowances for ancillary pandemic-related factors. They were left with, they said, numbers reflecting solely deaths from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.


I don't know if I believe it, but it is something to talk about
 

Devilsfan992

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Really you’re just focused on Texas in the middle of a global pandemic. And that’s a pretty silly metric.

How are cases a silly metric? And focusing on states which have relaxed mask mandates and capacities indoor and outdoor and seeing the results are important moving forward in the pandemic. It can show how much an impact certain restrictions have, given you also take in account all the other variables.

Furthermore, just because other countries aren't faring as well, does not mean we should not celebrate our own coming to normal. We're in a completely different scenario as India for example. Yes we should help them, but what is happening in Texas won't make any difference on what is happening in India.
 

flyfysher

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Mar 21, 2012
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Furthermore, just because other countries aren't faring as well, does not mean we should not celebrate our own coming to normal. We're in a completely different scenario as India for example. Yes we should help them, but what is happening in Texas won't make any difference on what is happening in India.

Your last paragraph is where I disagree. I would argue that we remain just as vulnerable to an emerging variant of concern and downplaying face masks, while seemingly okay NOW is not really a prudent strategy over a period of time. What's happening in Texas is simply irrelevant from my POV.

So far, the vaccines, especially the mRNA vaccines seem effective against all the B lineage variants including the Indian, South African and Brazilian variants. I'm all in about touting that. Driving down infections too.

But to act like the virus and its emerging variants are over just seems premature, especially because there is another potential VOC out there, the Tanzanian variant that has many mutations. It's from the A lineage.

I specifically asked Treb weeks ago if the vaccines would work against it and he had no opinion because he didn't know. That's fair. Neither do I.

But it's like blankall suggesting we have people that will contribute towards effective herd immunity. I don't disagree with blankall as a matter of what makes sense - BUT we don't know what the effective herd immunity threshold is. I posted just the other day that Noubar Afeyan, the co-founder of Moderna said the same thing in a YouTube Bloomberg Markets and Finance video.

Do I think things are better here in the States? Yes. Washington Post is reporting that 150.4M Americans have been vaccinated. Infections are dropping. However, our population is roughly 331M in the USA. So that's 181M Americans that haven't been vaccinated yet. That's a shitload of people and the majority of Americans. Drop a highly infectious variant in the middle of them and then let's see how fast it spreads. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I don't know.

Actually, I don't think anyone knows for sure but it seems to me that dortt wants to act like it won't. I have no problem with dortt doing so for himself. But I sure as heck won't ASSUME that it's no longer dangerous and I view it as irresponsible to act like it's safe when it's not. If Treb said so, that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the Tanzanian variant then perhaps I would change my mind.

Right now though, the Indian state of Goa was reporting positivity of like 50%. So you have a huge pool of infectees for mutations to arise. And until infections can be brought down worldwide, it just seems silly to say we should be done with wearing face masks or denigrate that practice. Because if an outbreak like India is experiencing comes here, then it could easily and quickly overwhelm our healthcare facilities, especially in more rural areas.

Remember when the Texas and Arizona and Florida governors were initially declaring that Covid-19 hadn't affected their states and then it hit? I do.

We may yet need face masks again. It's not a popular thing to say I'm sure, but it's true.
 
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dortt

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Didn't see this posted
COVID-19 US death toll as high as 905,000, worldwide is double official estimates, study claims




I don't know if I believe it, but it is something to talk about

excess deaths is always a tricky situation. Ran into this situation with Hurricane Maria in PR. In the end, the excess deaths were classified as INDIRECT deaths and the official death toll stood.

There are many who likely would be alive had it not been for the virus, yet they didn't die from the virus
 
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