What's going on in the US? Part 13 [Mod note in OP]

[Lt Dan]

Yes. Once again, very few cases of people catching Covid twice. Places like the UK had 10s of millions of people exposed to the original virus and then variants. If there was no natural immunity, you'd have seen 100s of thousands of documented cases of multiple infections.

Your Immune System Evolves to Fight Coronavirus Variants





Immune Response from COVID Recognizes Variants

Yes

The real trick here is to "remove" for lack of a better word. The novel status of this virus.
Once our bodies see a virus, the severity is much lower, and even if the virus does mutate the body still knows what it is and how to fight it

 

[flyfysher]

BS. Natural immunity to Covid is very strong. There are very very few documented cases of people getting covid multiple times, and we've been documenting who gets Covid more than any virus in history. Even the very limited number of cases we have of people getting Covid twice, typically involve a mild case the second time, which suggests partial immunity.

Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19

Oh you mean immunity from a prior Covid-19 infection and not some innate immunity when you’re using the term ‘natural immunity’ then.

 

[blankall]

Oh you mean immunity from a prior Covid-19 infection and not some innate immunity when you’re using the term ‘natural immunity’ then.

Sorry. Yes. If that was unclear. When I say natural immunity, I meant through natural exposure, as opposed to via a vaccine. I should have made that clearer. There is a significant portion of the population that has natural immunity that makes them either not get infected or be asymptomatic though.

Yes

The real trick here is to "remove" for lack of a better word. The novel status of this virus.
Once our bodies see a virus, the severity is much lower, and even if the virus does mutate the body still knows what it is and how to fight it

The "novel" word doesn't mean what most people think it means. It's called "novel" corona virus, because we are already very familiar with many different coronaviruses. This is a new species of a virus family that is very common. It's not some new type of virus that we've never dealt with before.

About 15% of colds are cause by very similarly structured and related coronaviruses to Covid-19.

 

[Lt Dan]

Remember they thought they had effective herd immunity in Manaus, Brazil and then the P.1 variant hit there and now they have a disaster.

The real problem here is that it is tough to prove in a place like Brazil. We have no idea how bad it got or didn't get.

I think our most effective case study is Los Angeles. It got BAD there. And even with the US being one of the leaders in testing, it is said that cases were still severely undercounted.

LA county estimated in January that 1/3 people had it, as of Jan 13 2021
http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1101466_COVID-19ProjectionPublicUpdateLewis01.13.21English.pdf




These are nationwide numbers

Los Angeles isn't doing anything different than most other major cities. I think low level herd immunity is the most likely reasoning.
But it is still all a guess at this point because the Dakotas faced something similar and aren't in the yellow status yet

 

[Lt Dan]

And Texas is yellow! This is huge

From yellow to orange:
Louisiana and AZ

 

[Devilsfan992]

Imagine the # of cases being lower than the best case scenario. Who would have thought of that?



Projected Case for May 6th - 3500
Actual Case Count for May 6th - 1628
Projected Hospitalizations for May 6th - ~1600
Actual Hospitalizations for May 6th - 1306

 

[flyfysher]

Sorry. Yes. If that was unclear. When I say natural immunity, I meant through natural exposure, as opposed to via a vaccine. I should have made that clearer. There is a significant portion of the population that has natural immunity that makes them either not get infected or be asymptomatic though.



The "novel" word doesn't mean what most people think it means. It's called "novel" corona virus, because we are already very familiar with many different coronaviruses. This is a new species of a virus family that is very common. It's not some new type of virus that we've never dealt with before.

About 15% of colds are cause by very similarly structured and related coronaviruses to Covid-19.

Regardless of the title, ‘novel’ is really irrelevant. Where you and I likely disagree is that I think the responsible thing to do is evaluate and assess each emerging variant of concern (VOC) independently in terms of viral behavior.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Imagine the # of cases being lower than the best case scenario. Who would have thought of that?



Projected Case for May 6th - 3500
Actual Case Count for May 6th - 1628
Projected Hospitalizations for May 6th - ~1600
Actual Hospitalizations for May 6th - 1306

View attachment 430552

View attachment 430553

Is the hospitalizations across the nation? If so, kudos to the Americans. Really rebounded.

 

[Dubi Doo]

1.27% percent positivity. Like it or not, this pandemic is ending very soon in the US.

The numbers are staying stubbornly stagnant in my area. We plateaued over a week ago, but we've only dropped from 3.2% positive to 2.9% positive, and have been at 2.9% positive for a week now. Im assuming this is due to the fact that we've been much further ahead of NYC in our reopening while also dealing with subpar weather; it's been a cold and rainy spring, though there have been some nice days sprinkled in.

I worry about NYC reopening 100% on May 19th, but they'll have way more of their population fully vaccinated than my community has had the past month while also having much warmer weather.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Is the hospitalizations across the nation? If so, kudos to the Americans. Really rebounded.

New Jersey

 

[Devilsfan992]

The numbers are staying stubbornly stagnant in my area. We plateaued over a week ago, but we've only dropped from 3.2% positive to 2.9% positive, and have been at 2.9% positive for a week now. Im assuming this is due to the fact that we've been much further ahead of NYC in our reopening while also dealing with subpar weather; it's been a cold and rainy spring, though there has been some nice days sprinkled in.

I worry about NYC reopening 100% on May 19th, but they'll have way more of their population fully vaccinated than my community has had the past month while also having much warmer weather.

I can certainly see weather being a factor. Upstate NY vs Lower NY have different weather patterns.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Minnesota will be ending their mask mandate by July 1st. I think youll see many north east states do the same barring any surge, which is highly unlikely at this point.

Im really hoping NY follow what PA is doing, but does it based on regions like they did with restrictions. As of today, we sit at nearly 65% of adults rcving at least one dose in my county. If Cuomo said tomorrow that mask mandates will be lifted once 70% of the adult population is fully vaccinated- I think we'd get there in 3-4 weeks, and have the mask mandates dropped by July (at least in my area).

 

[Devilsfan992]

Minnesota will be ending their mask mandate by July 1st. I think youll see many north east states do the same barring any surge, which is highly unlikely at this point.

Im really hoping NY follow what PA is doing, but does it based on regions like they did with restrictions. As of today, we sit at nearly 65% of adults rcving at least one dose in my county. If Cuomo said tomorrow that mask mandates will be lifted once 70% of the adult population is fully vaccinated- I think we'd get there in 3-4 weeks, and have the mask mandates dropped by July (at least in my area).

I saw West Virginia is also doing this, but for partials. This article was from 2 weeks ago. At the time 50.9% of the state had been partially vaccinated. Two weeks later, only 53.8%. It doesn't seem to be working to well in West Virginia, but even if it helps push a few extra percentage points, it ultimately helps in the long run.

Governor Jim Justice: If West Virginia Gets 70 Percent Partially Vaccinated, Mask Mandate Will Be Rescinded

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

New Jersey

Well, dang. I really thought it was across USA. Still, that's good.

 

[TaLoN]

Walz: All COVID business restrictions end May 28, mask mandate to follow July 1

All COVID-19 restrictions on businesses will be lifted completely by May 28, with the face mask mandate following by July, Gov. Tim Walz has announced.

The governor will confirm the three-phase at a noon press conference, with looser restrictions on outdoor and indoor gatherings starting as soon as Friday, before all COVID restrictions on businesses are brought to an end on May 28, before Memorial Day weekend.

That will be followed July 1 with the end of the face mask mandate – which could happen sooner if Minnesota reaches 70% of adults vaccinated.

This will not mean that private businesses can't require face masks for entry.

 

[Troy McClure]

Why I'm optimistic: "Coronavirus infections could be driven to low levels and the pandemic at least temporarily throttled in the United States by July. . ."
Why I'm pessimistic: "if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and continue with precautions against viral transmission"

Coronavirus could be under control this summer in U.S. if people get vaccinated and are careful, CDC says

 

[Lt Dan]

Why I'm pessimistic: "if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and continue with precautions against viral transmission"

Indeed man, the Covid Malaise is real.
People are OVER it and it might drag this all on even longer

 

[Devilsfan992]

45% Of Americans partially vaccinated, 57% of adults and 83% of seniors. Nice even numbers today. Also it was nice to see the 7 day average only drop .04 percentage points.

 

[Mario_is_BACK!!]

New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.

 

[TaLoN]

New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.

We knew the number would get larger when it started including the estimates that are typically used with other viruses.

 

[dortt]

We knew the number would get larger when it started including the estimates that are typically used with other viruses.

Japan under count by a factor of 10? That seems like a major stretch. I could buy India, but Japan?

The paramaterizations used in the equations are a bit iffy

 

[TaLoN]

Japan under count by a factor of 10? That seems like a major stretch. I could buy India, but Japan?

The paramaterizations used in the equations are a bit iffy

From the article. Seems reasonable.

The group reached its estimates by calculating excess mortality based on a variety of sources, including official death statistics from various countries, as well as academic studies of other locations.

Then, it examined other mortality factors influenced by the pandemic. For example, some of the extra deaths were caused by increased opioid overdoses or deferred health care. On the other hand, the dramatic reduction in flu cases last winter and a modest drop in deaths caused by injury resulted in lower mortality in those categories than usual.

Researchers at UW ultimately concluded that the extra deaths not directly caused by COVID-19 were effectively offset by the other reductions in death rates, leaving them to attribute all of the net excess deaths to the coronavirus.

Then when you account for this...

Experts are in agreement that official reports of COVID-19 deaths undercount the true death toll of the virus. Some countries only report deaths that take place in hospitals, or only when patients are confirmed to have been infected; others have poor health care access altogether.

It even seems more than reasonable.

 

[dortt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/got...r-lifting-indoor-covid-mask-mandates-now.html

former head of FDA wants indoor mask mandates gone through summer, but is open to them being reimposed in the winter

 

[Kennedys]

If you're bored of covid restrictions go to Florida. Closest from 2019 you can be

 

[Devilsfan992]

If you're bored of covid restrictions go to Florida. Closest from 2019 you can be

I have multiple friends who have went the past month. It looks crazier than anything I've seen pre-2020..