What's going on in the US? Part 11 [Mod note in OP]

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dortt

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Sep 21, 2018
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More Than 26 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

More than 8 million have already been vaccinated so far in the USA. Most in the very high risk groups. This should start reducing the death rates somewhat.

Probably will not reduce the Ro value significantly yet as it is a small number of people vaccinated. I'd think you'd need 10% of the country vaccinated before that starts to drop in any noticeable way
 

JacketsFanWest

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Jun 14, 2005
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The spread is so bad in California, now two gorillas at the San Diego zoo have tested positive.

Gorilla Troop at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park Test Positive for COVID-19

Edited to add:

UC Davis is running a preclinical animal trial for the Moderna vaccine and likely Novavax on infant primates:

UC Davis researchers run COVID-19 childhood vaccine trials on infant primates | The Aggie

Most of the safety trials previously were done on ferrets and not primates. Maybe once they're proven safe for primates, they can vaccine the poor zoo animals.
 
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HoweHullOrr

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Oct 3, 2013
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We're not into the Xmas deaths yet. Still only 2 weeks out. In other words, we're not at peak. I wouldn't expect that until end of the month or so to allow for all the idiots that had New Year's Eve parties ...
I took a look at the IHME model last week (post #910). It projected Feb.10th I think. The U.S. blew by the more optimistic prediction scenario.
 

JacketsFanWest

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LA County health director Barbara Ferrer has admitted that all the spread is happening at homes. Restaurants are closed. Many businesses are closed. But the numbers keep skyrocketing. And nothing they're doing is slowing the spread.

Her new solution - wear a mask at home.

“Because there is so much spread, we’re also recommending that people keep their face coverings on while they’re inside the home,” Ferrer said. For anyone who works outside or is the person who runs the essential errands in the family, wearing a mask at home “will just add a layer of protection while we get through the surge.”

Some L.A. County residents should wear masks at home to slow virus spread, officials say

The utterly uselessness of these recommendations is just compounding the problem. First, don't travel more than 120 miles from home. Then wear a mask at home.
 

Pens1566

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Aug 2, 2005
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LA County health director Barbara Ferrer has admitted that all the spread is happening at homes. Restaurants are closed. Many businesses are closed. But the numbers keep skyrocketing. And nothing they're doing is slowing the spread.

Her new solution - wear a mask at home.



Some L.A. County residents should wear masks at home to slow virus spread, officials say

The utterly uselessness of these recommendations is just compounding the problem. First, don't travel more than 120 miles from home. Then wear a mask at home.

The flaw in that logic is that it has to spread to the first individual in the home in some external location (work, school, etc). It can't just mysteriously appear out of nowhere. So, no, not all spread is occurring at home.
 

JacketsFanWest

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The flaw in that logic is that it has to spread to the first individual in the home in some external location (work, school, etc). It can't just mysteriously appear out of nowhere. So, no, not all spread is occurring at home.

People are going to homes of others and there's not much that can be done to stop it. If they're ignoring the guidelines to host social gatherings, then they're not going to wear masks at home.

Once this got going through communities with very high density and living arrangements which includes converted garages and many people in the same house or apartments, the numbers can go up very quickly.

These guidelines are set-up for people living in suburban houses, not 8 people living in a converted garage who go hang out with their friends because they only sleep there and there isn't enough room to actually live.

There's a reason there's actually starting now to be a decrease in cases in the affluent areas of So Cal and massive increases in the very poor areas. Everything is set-up for suburban homes not this type of situations where viruses spread.

This was what Ventura County was trying to stop, but the mass outrage over the Covid camps stopped it:
Ventura County clarifies claims it would force people from homes into isolated coronavirus centers | Fox News
 
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Devilsfan992

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Apr 14, 2012
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Drop of 35,000 cases from one week ago. Percent Positivity seems to be moving in the right direction. The closest holiday is one month away, Super Bowl Sunday. I'm cautiously optimistic that we may finally be rounding the curve.
 

voxel

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Feb 14, 2007
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South Dakota has been the best test for herd immunity with so few restrictions but maybe not representative of the US because of low population density.

They've basically allowed 1/8th (that were detected) of their population to be infected with a CFR of 1.52% and death per capita 1792 per 1M. Cases are declining but I suspect they will only decline so far like in FL and stay a constant infection level after.

COVID-19 in South Dakota: 452 total new cases; Death toll rises to 1,604; Active cases at 4,762 | KELOLAND.com

They will hit 2000 deaths per 1M before vaccines kick in. The problem with their approach is their deaths happened within 3 months and overwhelmed their hospitals for about two months.
 

Jacob

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Feb 27, 2002
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I don’t think population density is a big factor. Urban centers got hit early just because they’re entry points.

Someone living in Brooklyn probably comes in close, prolonged contact with as many people and as frequently as someone from rural Iowa. Nobody’s living off the land with minimal human contact or traveling ability nowadays, they’re still going to stores, work, traveling, socializing with friends and family.
 

Fireonk

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Jan 10, 2006
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I don’t think population density is a big factor. Urban centers got hit early just because they’re entry points.

Someone living in Brooklyn probably comes in close, prolonged contact with as many people and as frequently as someone from rural Iowa. Nobody’s living off the land with minimal human contact or traveling ability nowadays, they’re still going to stores, work, traveling, socializing with friends and family.

While I think there is some truth to this it is still easier to stay away from others in rural areas overall. Much less reliance on public transportation, much less shared common areas in apartment buildings such as elevators, etc.

The entry points is definitely a key factor. Look at South Dakota, they largely had no issues with Covid until the rising cases that the Sturgis rally seemed to bring in.
 
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blankall

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Jul 4, 2007
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South Dakota has been the best test for herd immunity with so few restrictions but maybe not representative of the US because of low population density.

They've basically allowed 1/8th (that were detected) of their population to be infected with a CFR of 1.52% and death per capita 1792 per 1M. Cases are declining but I suspect they will only decline so far like in FL and stay a constant infection level after.

COVID-19 in South Dakota: 452 total new cases; Death toll rises to 1,604; Active cases at 4,762 | KELOLAND.com

They will hit 2000 deaths per 1M before vaccines kick in. The problem with their approach is their deaths happened within 3 months and overwhelmed their hospitals for about two months.

I think South Dakota may actually be close to herd immunity. SD is also vaccinating very heavily. With 12.5% confirmed cases, they probably have another 30-40% of the population that were asmyptomatic or chose not to go to the doctor. Throw in children (who typically have no symptoms) and the already vaccinated, and you're getting to a point where large portions of the population are likely immune.

Herd immunity levels also vary from place to place, depending on factors like climate, population density, etc...Florida has much denser and larger urban areas than SD, so they likely require a higher level of immunity to reach herd immunity.
 

blankall

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Jul 4, 2007
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I don’t think population density is a big factor. Urban centers got hit early just because they’re entry points.

Someone living in Brooklyn probably comes in close, prolonged contact with as many people and as frequently as someone from rural Iowa. Nobody’s living off the land with minimal human contact or traveling ability nowadays, they’re still going to stores, work, traveling, socializing with friends and family.

This depends largely on the measures in place. People in rural areas aren't getting crammed onto public transit. Most rural people don't work in office buildings with contained air circulation systems.
 

voxel

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Feb 14, 2007
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Florida
While I think there is some truth to this it is still easier to stay away from others in rural areas overall. Much less reliance on public transportation, much less shared common areas in apartment buildings such as elevators, etc.

The entry points is definitely a key factor. Look at South Dakota, they largely had no issues with Covid until the rising cases that the Sturgis rally seemed to bring in.

Yeah, I've always argued travel is the trigger for spread. Once borders open up... Australia and NZ will get hit hard if they don't vaccinate their populations.

SD still has a high PCR positivity % - they are declining but I still argue it won't go below a certain level given what I've seen in Florida... if COVID exists widely in population it will continue to spread (in FL it was 2-3K new detected cases per day with a population of 21M). And vaccines are not approved for use in children so they will continue to be a vector for spread.
 

JacketsFanWest

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Jun 14, 2005
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This depends largely on the measures in place. People in rural areas aren't getting crammed onto public transit. Most rural people don't work in office buildings with contained air circulation systems.

Rural areas in California which are now getting hit hard tend to have overcrowded housing situations with many people living in small areas.

In So Cal, one of the areas with the highest rates of infection is Santa Paula - an agricultural area where many people living a crowded homes. 80% of the population is Hispanic. There's been 3,766 official cases in an area with 30,000 people. That's officially 12.6% of the population testing positive.

Updated: Another 112 new cases today for Santa Paula, so 12.9% of the population has now officially tested positive.

In rural South Dakota, people in a small town may go socialize in a bar or another home or at church, but there's a limited number of people they would come into contact with that limits the spread. Unless someone goes to a huge motorcycle rally, it limits the number of people who could be infected and the pool are depleted quickly.

In a place in Santa Paula, it's an hour from other larger cities which many people there have family in and continue to visit and socialize with and go to find work as day laborers when there isn't work in produce packing plants or picking crops.

That's why stressing ventilation is crucial since the situation with 5+ people living in small homes together is the issue:


Masks are great, but getting people wearing them indoors the entire day is impractical. But at least opening the windows would help prevent that type of spread.

Opening windows in a small home in South Dakota isn't practical, but it's 85+ today in many areas around Los Angeles. But with so many businesses closed, people are hanging out in homes with others. And that's fine if you live with 1 other person in a 2,500 square house. It's not when there are 5+ people in 1,000 square feet including multiple adults who work as day laborers and in service jobs.
 
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Mar 1, 2002
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According to Bloomberg, Oregon has only used 38.7% of their distributed doses. Why are they asking for more dosages now? Louisiana has a similar population as Oregon yet has delivered 3x as many 2nd doses as Oregon.

The federal government flat out lied to America in regards to how many doses they had. That isn't a political opinion, that's just fact.

"When Health and Human Service Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses that were being held in reserve for second shots, it turns out that no such reserve existed, according to federal and state officials briefed on the matter."

Guess who quit their job last night? Azar.

The states rolled out their plans assuming the facts they were given by the federal government were the truth.
 

dortt

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Sep 21, 2018
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Houston, TX
why are we allowing vaccine to go to waste

We should be giving the doses that would otherwise expire to ANYBODY. Even giving those to the young and healthy is better than letting them go to waste
 
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