dortt
Registered User
Even Andrew Cuomo is getting nervous about the shutdowns going on much longer
I took a look at the IHME model last week (post #910). It projected Feb.10th I think. The U.S. blew by the more optimistic prediction scenario.We're not into the Xmas deaths yet. Still only 2 weeks out. In other words, we're not at peak. I wouldn't expect that until end of the month or so to allow for all the idiots that had New Year's Eve parties ...
“Because there is so much spread, we’re also recommending that people keep their face coverings on while they’re inside the home,” Ferrer said. For anyone who works outside or is the person who runs the essential errands in the family, wearing a mask at home “will just add a layer of protection while we get through the surge.”
LA County health director Barbara Ferrer has admitted that all the spread is happening at homes. Restaurants are closed. Many businesses are closed. But the numbers keep skyrocketing. And nothing they're doing is slowing the spread.
Her new solution - wear a mask at home.
Some L.A. County residents should wear masks at home to slow virus spread, officials say
The utterly uselessness of these recommendations is just compounding the problem. First, don't travel more than 120 miles from home. Then wear a mask at home.
The flaw in that logic is that it has to spread to the first individual in the home in some external location (work, school, etc). It can't just mysteriously appear out of nowhere. So, no, not all spread is occurring at home.
I don’t think population density is a big factor. Urban centers got hit early just because they’re entry points.
Someone living in Brooklyn probably comes in close, prolonged contact with as many people and as frequently as someone from rural Iowa. Nobody’s living off the land with minimal human contact or traveling ability nowadays, they’re still going to stores, work, traveling, socializing with friends and family.
South Dakota has been the best test for herd immunity with so few restrictions but maybe not representative of the US because of low population density.
They've basically allowed 1/8th (that were detected) of their population to be infected with a CFR of 1.52% and death per capita 1792 per 1M. Cases are declining but I suspect they will only decline so far like in FL and stay a constant infection level after.
COVID-19 in South Dakota: 452 total new cases; Death toll rises to 1,604; Active cases at 4,762 | KELOLAND.com
They will hit 2000 deaths per 1M before vaccines kick in. The problem with their approach is their deaths happened within 3 months and overwhelmed their hospitals for about two months.
I don’t think population density is a big factor. Urban centers got hit early just because they’re entry points.
Someone living in Brooklyn probably comes in close, prolonged contact with as many people and as frequently as someone from rural Iowa. Nobody’s living off the land with minimal human contact or traveling ability nowadays, they’re still going to stores, work, traveling, socializing with friends and family.
While I think there is some truth to this it is still easier to stay away from others in rural areas overall. Much less reliance on public transportation, much less shared common areas in apartment buildings such as elevators, etc.
The entry points is definitely a key factor. Look at South Dakota, they largely had no issues with Covid until the rising cases that the Sturgis rally seemed to bring in.
This depends largely on the measures in place. People in rural areas aren't getting crammed onto public transit. Most rural people don't work in office buildings with contained air circulation systems.
According to Bloomberg, Oregon has only used 38.7% of their distributed doses. Why are they asking for more dosages now? Louisiana has a similar population as Oregon yet has delivered 3x as many 2nd doses as Oregon.