What's going on in Sweden? Part 2

Dubi Doo

Registered User
Aug 27, 2008
19,221
12,693
Cases are falling dramatically in Sweden for the last month. Is this just due to their lag in reporting, or are cases actually falling? Genuine question, can anyone in Sweden comment?
Definitely a decrease in every important metric- ICU admissions, hospitalizations, etc...it seems like the worst *may*, be behind Sweden. *fingercrossed*

Though there is growing concern over the mutated strain found in the UK. There have been 95 cases of the UK strain in Sweden with 29 of those cases having no connection to the UK. The South African one has popped up as well, which is causing concern. Hopefully these concerns do not materialize.
 
  • Like
Reactions: blankall

blankall

Registered User
Jul 4, 2007
14,935
5,263
Definitely a decrease in every important metric- ICU admissions, hospitalizations, etc...it seems like the worst *may*, be behind Sweden. *fingercrossed*

Though there is growing concern over the mutated strain found in the UK. There have been 95 cases of the UK strain in Sweden with 29 of those cases having no connection to the UK. The South African one has popped up as well, which is causing concern. Hopefully these concerns do not materialize.
Interesting. I wonder if this is part of a post holiday fall, or a federal trend. Is it possible the virus has stopped spreading in the larger cities? What are restrictions like there right now?
 

Dubi Doo

Registered User
Aug 27, 2008
19,221
12,693
Interesting. I wonder if this is part of a post holiday fall, or a federal trend. Is it possible the virus has stopped spreading in the larger cities? What are restrictions like there right now?
I havent been keeping up with Sweden much anymore. I know they passed a bill that would allow for more restrictions, but Im not sure if any of those restrictions came to fruition. I think it's relatively the same...limited capacity at certain places, no mass gatherings, etc....it seems like herd immunity is playing a role, though how big of a role it'd play without restrictions remains to be seen.

Just for a comparison- I work at a hospital in upstate NY, so Ive been given a lot of intel throughout this pandemic regarding the virus surges in our area. We were hit pretty hard in the spring, then even harder during the fall and winter, but cases are starting to drop and we havent made any new regulations that would attribute to these fall in cases.

It's either A) herd immunity is slowing this virus down, though this is with regulations in place. I believe we'd have another (hopefully) smaller surge that would hit us if we hastly reopened or B) Human behavior has changed due to the virhs wreaking havoc on our community again. I noticed many of my family and friend cutting down on get togethers and wearing masks more once the virus began surging again.

I personally believe herd immunity (with restrictions) is the main reason the virus is slowing down in my area, though human behavior is helping a bit. The weather cannot be attributed to this slow down like it was last spring, so Im a bit optimistic. Still, the mutated variants bring some concern, but a strong base of herd immunity will likely mitigate the spread so we don't end up like the UK (fingers crossed). Also, vaccinations are going to start having a much bigger impact in the coming months, which will hopefully allow us to avoid another surge as we reopen more. They may already be playing a minor role if 1 dose does provide adequate protection.

Sorry for rambling there. I know NY had a different response than Sweden, but just note- while our rules were stricter- we didnt shutdown any businesses this winter...we just had stricter limited capacity on more businesses, so there are some parallels we can make between the two.
 

blankall

Registered User
Jul 4, 2007
14,935
5,263
I havent been keeping up with Sweden much anymore. I know they passed a bill that would allow for more restrictions, but Im not sure if any of those restrictions came to fruition. I think it's relatively the same...limited capacity at certain places, no mass gatherings, etc....it seems like herd immunity is playing a role, though how big of a role it'd play without restrictions remains to be seen.

Just for a comparison- I work at a hospital in upstate NY, so Ive been given a lot of intel throughout this pandemic regarding the virus surges in our area. We were hit pretty hard in the spring, then even harder during the fall and winter, but cases are starting to drop and we havent made any new regulations that would attribute to these fall in cases.

It's either A) herd immunity is slowing this virus down, though this is with regulations in place. I believe we'd have another (hopefully) smaller surge that would hit us if we hastly reopened or B) Human behavior has changed due to the virhs wreaking havoc on our community again. I noticed many of my family and friend cutting down on get togethers and wearing masks more once the virus began surging again.

I personally believe herd immunity (with restrictions) is the main reason the virus is slowing down in my area, though human behavior is helping a bit. The weather cannot be attributed to this slow down like it was last spring, so Im a bit optimistic. Still, the mutated variants bring some concern, but a strong base of herd immunity will likely mitigate the spread so we don't end up like the UK (fingers crossed). Also, vaccinations are going to start having a much bigger impact in the coming months, which will hopefully allow us to avoid another surge as we reopen more. They may already be playing a minor role if 1 dose does provide adequate protection.

Sorry for rambling there. I know NY had a different response than Sweden, but just note- while our rules were stricter- we didnt shutdown any businesses this winter...we just had stricter limited capacity on more businesses, so there are some parallels we can make between the two.

Given how easy this virus spreads, human behaviour, short of no contact at all, doesn't seem to do much to stop spread. Based on infection rates, there's likely herd immunity in various communities within NYC. The younger the community, the more likely you are to have herd immunity.
 

I am toxic

. . . even in small doses
Oct 24, 2014
9,352
14,635
Vancouver
I havent been keeping up with Sweden much anymore. I know they passed a bill that would allow for more restrictions, but Im not sure if any of those restrictions came to fruition. I think it's relatively the same...limited capacity at certain places, no mass gatherings, etc....it seems like herd immunity is playing a role, though how big of a role it'd play without restrictions remains to be seen.

Just for a comparison- I work at a hospital in upstate NY, so Ive been given a lot of intel throughout this pandemic regarding the virus surges in our area. We were hit pretty hard in the spring, then even harder during the fall and winter, but cases are starting to drop and we havent made any new regulations that would attribute to these fall in cases.

It's either A) herd immunity is slowing this virus down, though this is with regulations in place. I believe we'd have another (hopefully) smaller surge that would hit us if we hastly reopened or B) Human behavior has changed due to the virhs wreaking havoc on our community again. I noticed many of my family and friend cutting down on get togethers and wearing masks more once the virus began surging again.

I personally believe herd immunity (with restrictions) is the main reason the virus is slowing down in my area, though human behavior is helping a bit. The weather cannot be attributed to this slow down like it was last spring, so Im a bit optimistic. Still, the mutated variants bring some concern, but a strong base of herd immunity will likely mitigate the spread so we don't end up like the UK (fingers crossed). Also, vaccinations are going to start having a much bigger impact in the coming months, which will hopefully allow us to avoid another surge as we reopen more. They may already be playing a minor role if 1 dose does provide adequate protection.

Sorry for rambling there. I know NY had a different response than Sweden, but just note- while our rules were stricter- we didnt shutdown any businesses this winter...we just had stricter limited capacity on more businesses, so there are some parallels we can make between the two.

Sweden required masks to be worn at times while on public transit.

Looks like it is working, despite one of their chief health officers ignoring their own guidance.

I would take a look at the IHME mobility numbers for Swedes, it is more likely cases are declining currently due to those factors you mention about people - finally - seriously adjusting their behaviour, rather than herd immunity through exposure/vaccination.

Essentially, the covidiots that never followed proper health advice likely got sick and spread it early on, now they are no longer doing as much damage as they are far less likely to become re-infected at this stage, and other people have begun to recognize that Tegnell's strategy was moronic and are likely wearing masks more and truly cutting down interactions.

Just a hunch.

eta: link to IHME mobility data, sure enough people began distancing more, I have seen no evidence provided that any herd immunity has been achieved, again no surprise

New York State mobility data , if that's of interest
 
Last edited:

Perry Mason

Registered User
Nov 8, 2020
4
0
Sweden required masks to be worn at times while on public transit.

Looks like it is working, despite one of their chief health officers ignoring their own guidance.

I would take a look at the IHME mobility numbers for Swedes, it is more likely cases are declining currently due to those factors you mention about people - finally - seriously adjusting their behaviour, rather than herd immunity through exposure/vaccination.

Essentially, the covidiots that never followed proper health advice likely got sick and spread it early on, now they are no longer doing as much damage as they are far less likely to become re-infected at this stage, and other people have begun to recognize that Tegnell's strategy was moronic and are likely wearing masks more and truly cutting down interactions.

Just a hunch.

eta: link to IHME mobility data, sure enough people began distancing more, I have seen no evidence provided that any herd immunity has been achieved, again no surprise

New York State mobility data , if that's of interest
hardly the reason, around 10-20 % are wearing mask at the times proposed at my opinion. When times it is not encouraged, hardly anones wearing a mask. Still, its not worse here then places with much harder restrictions. Distance is what matters
 

Dubi Doo

Registered User
Aug 27, 2008
19,221
12,693
hardly the reason, around 10-20 % are wearing mask at the times proposed at my opinion. When times it is not encouraged, hardly anones wearing a mask. Still, its not worse here then places with much harder restrictions. Distance is what matters
Disagreed. Strong mask usage helps, too. Unfortunately, masks are politicized in many areas and rarely used in private gatherings.

Case and point, at my hospital we have seen 50% less cases among staff than that of the outside community, and most of our infections have come from maskless get togethers outside of work and people having lunch at work. We don't social distance at all on our units and there are plenty of young nurses who were partying it up as if there wasnt a pandemic going on.

Unfortunately, people rarely wear masks at private gatherings, which seemed to be the momentum behind the recent surge due to holidays and people letting their guards down (at least in the US).

Sweden required masks to be worn at times while on public transit.

Looks like it is working, despite one of their chief health officers ignoring their own guidance.

I would take a look at the IHME mobility numbers for Swedes, it is more likely cases are declining currently due to those factors you mention about people - finally - seriously adjusting their behaviour, rather than herd immunity through exposure/vaccination.

Essentially, the covidiots that never followed proper health advice likely got sick and spread it early on, now they are no longer doing as much damage as they are far less likely to become re-infected at this stage, and other people have begun to recognize that Tegnell's strategy was moronic and are likely wearing masks more and truly cutting down interactions.

Just a hunch.

eta: link to IHME mobility data, sure enough people began distancing more, I have seen no evidence provided that any herd immunity has been achieved, again no surprise

New York State mobility data , if that's of interest
Interesting stuff. I havent followed mobility data. I definitely think this virus has another jab or two left to give. Hopefully vaccinations will be more wide spread by the time more people let their guards down. A lot of people who were safe during the spring let their guards down by the fall time due to many areas not seeing a surge during the summer...
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: I am toxic

I am toxic

. . . even in small doses
Oct 24, 2014
9,352
14,635
Vancouver
hardly the reason, around 10-20 % are wearing mask at the times proposed at my opinion. When times it is not encouraged, hardly anones wearing a mask. Still, its not worse here then places with much harder restrictions. Distance is what matters

No, masks are at least as equally important as social distancing, one need only look to the Mayo Clinic or Taiwan to see that is the case.

In Sweden, masks at times on transit is likely only a recommendation, who cares, the point that is being diverted from is that the reason the numbers are declining in Sweden is because of distancing, and of course any mask use will contribute as well. Not herd immunity.

And we only need to look at the most comparable nations like Finland, Norway and to a lesser extent Denmark to see how much worse it is in Sweden.
 

I am toxic

. . . even in small doses
Oct 24, 2014
9,352
14,635
Vancouver
Disagreed. Strong mask usage helps, too. Unfortunately, masks are politicized in many areas and rarely used in private gatherings.

Case and point, at my hospital we have seen 50% less cases among staff than that of the outside community, and most of our infections have come from maskless get togethers outside of work and people having lunch at work. We don't social distance at all on our units and there are plenty of young nurses who were partying it up as if there wasnt a pandemic going on.

Unfortunately, people rarely wear masks at private gatherings, which seemed to be the momentum behind the recent surge due to holidays and people letting their guards down (at least in the US).


Interesting stuff. I havent followed mobility data. I definitely think this virus has another jab or two left to give. Hopefully vaccinations will be more wide spread by the time more people let their guards down. A lot of people who were safe during the spring let their guards down by the fall time due to many areas not seeing a surge during the summer...

The mobility data is quite powerful - you can watch the numbers follow it, with deaths lagging. Combine that by overlaying seasonal flu numbers and none of the numbers are a surprise.

My kid started rec hockey in September, at that time I said to the rest of the coaches that I expected things to be shut down by some time in November. Sure enough, games were banned on November 7 and will continue to be banned until at least February 5 when we get our next round of updated restrictions. Practices are allowed to continue, it's unfortunate that games can't because our protocols are very strong, we have had no transmissions to date. But we promote the health guidance - and take extra steps as well like coaches wearing masks on the ice, which is not required - even if we quibble with parts of it. That will be the fasted way to get the kids back to playing full time.

It is just really unfortunate for the kids that it is at this stage, in no small part to people who fail to follow proper health guidance, and people who spread falsehoods to discourage mask use.
 

DowJones

Registered User
Aug 30, 2008
1,111
360
Sweden required masks to be worn at times while on public transit.

Looks like it is working, despite one of their chief health officers ignoring their own guidance.


I would take a look at the IHME mobility numbers for Swedes, it is more likely cases are declining currently due to those factors you mention about people - finally - seriously adjusting their behaviour, rather than herd immunity through exposure/vaccination.

Essentially, the covidiots that never followed proper health advice likely got sick and spread it early on, now they are no longer doing as much damage as they are far less likely to become re-infected at this stage, and other people have begun to recognize that Tegnell's strategy was moronic and are likely wearing masks more and truly cutting down interactions.

Just a hunch.

eta: link to IHME mobility data, sure enough people began distancing more, I have seen no evidence provided that any herd immunity has been achieved, again no surprise

New York State mobility data , if that's of interest

Ok Let me first say that I absolutely think masks could be a thing that could decrease the spread. Again (imo) social distancing should be prio 1,2,3,4,5. But all things equal, most science reports Leans towards a certain decrease with masks. In public transport I definitely think we should use masks.

But from that to draw the conclusion that “masks work” based on the mask use in Stockholm public transport is idiocracy. I am sorry if I offend you but as a guy that works with numbers 10 hours a day I have a hard time to let posts like this pass.

With that, again, I am not saying masks don’t work. I am saying your argument don’t work.

If you look at videos from Stockholm subways from the last days it will make clear.
 
Last edited:

I am toxic

. . . even in small doses
Oct 24, 2014
9,352
14,635
Vancouver
Ok Let me first say that I absolutely think masks could be a thing that could decrease the spread. Again (imo) social distancing should be prio 1,2,3,4,5. But all things equal, most science reports Leans towards a certain decrease with masks. In public transport I definitely think we should use masks.

But from that to draw the conclusion that “masks work” based on the mask use in Stockholm public transport is idiocracy. I am sorry if I offend you but as a guy that works with numbers 10 hours a day I have a hard time to let posts like this pass.

With that, again, I am not saying masks don’t work. I am saying your argument don’t work.

If you look at videos from Stockholm subways from the last days it will make clear.
Stop making stuff up.

You have completely misconstrued my argument.

Masks work, and likely better than social distancing. I have already pointed out the Mayo Clinic and Taiwan. People are free to ignore that is reality all they want.

With regards to Sweden, because they have an anti-masker whacko running the show, mask use is relatively low. That is why I pointed out that mobility/social distance was leading to the reduction there, not some herd immunity.

The limited mask use on transit will also be helping bring the numbers down. If Sweden also had a high rate of mask use, their numbers would be even lower.
 

Albatros

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
12,274
7,723
Ostsee
And we only need to look at the most comparable nations like Finland, Norway and to a lesser extent Denmark to see how much worse it is in Sweden.

That's a funny way to describe a situation where in Sweden cases have been coming down fast and for example in Finland threatening to explode.
 

Stubu

Registered User
Dec 16, 2015
4,097
4,758
F.
That's a funny way to describe a situation where in Sweden cases have been coming down fast and for example in Finland threatening to explode.
I hope dear neighbor Sweden's situation is improving, but it seems cases have been exploding or threatening to explode everywhere in Europe.

BTW. According to Johns Hopkins data, last 10 days: Sweden 19791 new cases, Finland 3148; Sweden 586 Covid deaths, Finland 27. However, in this timespan Finland has had the relatively larger increase in new cases, 7% vs 4%. So you could say Finland is on a worse trajectory right now.

Our government just introduced a revamped multi-tiered model for restrictions; now with the harshest, essentially wartime oriented options baked in it. (As were used last March to quench the first wawe.) Were still at the "level one" of local fine-tuned measures, but it's good to see the gubmint has the readiness in place to go quickly back to central control and amp it up to that "level three" if the situation escalates. Right now we seem to be second in Europe after Iceland when it comes to the containment of the pandemic per capita; and I sincerely hope we continue to not make a song and dance about it. The less cross border traffic the better.
 

Albatros

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
12,274
7,723
Ostsee
In large cities such as Helsinki the current growth rate sees the number of cases double in 2-3 weeks. This already occurred in November, but stricter restrictions cut the growth over the end of the year holidays. Yet now the same is occurring despite the restrictions and a hard lockdown seems very much like a possibility. Going forward, the governmental vaccination campaign by design prioritizes barely affected rural areas while in the cities progress threatens to be very slow so that this might not even be the last lockdown winter.
 

Stubu

Registered User
Dec 16, 2015
4,097
4,758
F.
In large cities such as Helsinki the current growth rate sees the number of cases double in 2-3 weeks. This already occurred in November, but stricter restrictions cut the growth over the end of the year holidays. Yet now the same is occurring despite the restrictions and a hard lockdown seems very much like a possibility.
You sort of assume Helsinki and similar cities aren't changing their approach as a result of the new outbreaks, but it's clear they are ready if reluctant to do so; and anyway the government is prepared to step in if they don't, as per the recent strategy update. (IMNSHO, Helsinki and Vantaa have had the worst, most cavalier leadership out of all Finnish cities.)

Going forward, the governmental vaccination campaign by design prioritizes barely affected rural areas while in the cities progress threatens to be very slow so that this might not even be the last lockdown winter.
The problem with that logic, any "barely affected" rural area today can be a corona hotbed tomorrow. We've seen sudden and surprising outbreaks happen all over the country, small towns and large cities alike. And I'd say you exaggerate the share of those rural areas; their percentages may be higher but the absolute vaccine numbers are insignificant in the big picture.

In any case the emphasis will shift toward the larger population centers as the campaign progresses toward larger and larger demographic/risk groups. The starting point, the care personnel, was just about the largest number of smallest collections of people most widely distributed around the country possible... but it was a very well-reasoned starting point.

At this pace, in a couple of weeks the only relevant bottleneck is getting the vaccines in the country from the manufacturers, not the jabbing. (And it's going to be a pretty bad bottleneck for a good while, unfortunately, it seems.)
 

Albatros

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
12,274
7,723
Ostsee
The numbers do add up, the Helsinki healthcare region with roughly a third of the national population and more than a half of all COVID-19 cases has so far vaccinated 38.000 people out of the 146.000 in all of Finland. When the worst affected areas are falling behind like that it creates better conditions for spread elsewhere as well, the virus is much more likely to spread from the cities to rural places than between rural areas. But perhaps the unspoken strategy is to vaccinate as many of the elderly as possible and then simply let the rest of the population get ill.
 

Macbanan

Registered User
Dec 28, 2013
1,269
1,171
Uppsala, Sweden
Also, there is not one single death by Covid 19 in the ages 40 and below in Sweden according to statistics from FHM. Experience

The handling of nursing homes has not been very good in Sweden, otherwise, I don´t have a problem with how the pandemic has been handled.

There's been 55 deaths from ages 40 and below. You need to use the slider on their page to zoom in and highlight the columns in those age intervals.
 

Stubu

Registered User
Dec 16, 2015
4,097
4,758
F.
The numbers do add up, the Helsinki healthcare region with roughly a third of the national population and more than a half of all COVID-19 cases has so far vaccinated 38.000 people out of the 146.000 in all of Finland. When the worst affected areas are falling behind like that it creates better conditions for spread elsewhere as well, the virus is much more likely to spread from the cities to rural places than between rural areas. But perhaps the unspoken strategy is to vaccinate as many of the elderly as possible and then simply let the rest of the population get ill.
The stats are problematic because the numbers are recorded in the national database with variable delays; and the numbers of vaccinations given doesn't necessarily correspond to the number of dosages distributed, especially in this early stage when the individual recipient groups are smallest. The realities of logistics nationwide also play a part in the distribution. The figures are likely to even out as vaccination progresses to larger risk/age groups.

No need to worry about evil secret herd immunity strategies; the national strategy is very well explained on THL's website. The start was necessarily going to be slow due to the planned order of protecting care personnel first, then proceeding in order of health risk; meaning from a larger number of smaller widely distributed groups to larger groups. The decisive bottleneck is getting the stuff in the country to begin with.

BTW, this is rather OT in this thread. Reply in the general Vaccine thread if you will. It's much the same situation in most other EU countries anyway; and some are faring worse, unfortunately.
 

Snauen

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
1,349
526
Ah, you are correct. I was fooled by the graph not being zoomed in enough. Thanks.
And your posted death rate info (here) just got 54 times higher than what you said to us to begin with.. Did this new corrected info change your stance? Or you still going with the "I have no problem with the handling of the pandemic" ?
 
Last edited:

Snauen

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
1,349
526
LEIF GW PERSSON: Allt jag begär är ett stick i armen

A good read. Celebrity G.W.-Persson on whats wrong with this country. "-A country that is expert on describing problems and expert on doing nothing about it, or getting nothing done"
"The bureaucracy and boat loads of nonsense bureaucrats are the cause of it"
According to his calculation , Sweden will have vaccinated its people against Covid in the year 2024.
"-Give me that f***ing shot already" says Leif GW Persson who is old and in multiple risk groups.
 

Macbanan

Registered User
Dec 28, 2013
1,269
1,171
Uppsala, Sweden
LEIF GW PERSSON: Allt jag begär är ett stick i armen

A good read. Celebrity G.W.-Persson on whats wrong with this country. "-A country that is expert on describing problems and expert on doing nothing about it, or getting nothing done"
"The bureaucracy and boat loads of nonsense bureaucrats are the cause of it"
According to his calculation , Sweden will have vaccinated its people against Covid in the year 2024.
"-Give me that f***ing shot already" says Leif GW Persson who is old and in multiple risk groups.

I don't know if GW is arguing in bad faith or just severely ignorant of the situation. It's a bit surprising to see him be argue so cluelessly. Of course the estimate is many years if you go by the vaccination pace of today. Everyone should know the current pace is only a fraction of the full estimated speed. You can't vaccinate with the doses you haven't yet received.

The fastest vaccinating country in Europe, the UK, wouldn't be able to fully vaccinate all its citizens until 2022 if you would go by that measure. And they signed vaccination protectionistic deals with their suppliers, as did Israel and the US. How many countries can demand to get priority before it just ends up either with no-one getting priority or an inhuman queues where some countries vaccinate their entire population before risk groups in other countries get their first doses. That practice should be frowned upon and not celebrated.
 

Snauen

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
1,349
526
I don't know if GW is arguing in bad faith or just severely ignorant of the situation. It's a bit surprising to see him be argue so cluelessly. Of course the estimate is many years if you go by the vaccination pace of today. Everyone should know the current pace is only a fraction of the full estimated speed. You can't vaccinate with the doses you haven't yet received.

The fastest vaccinating country in Europe, the UK, wouldn't be able to fully vaccinate all its citizens until 2022 if you would go by that measure. And they signed vaccination protectionistic deals with their suppliers, as did Israel and the US. How many countries can demand to get priority before it just ends up either with no-one getting priority or an inhuman queues where some countries vaccinate their entire population before risk groups in other countries get their first doses. That practice should be frowned upon and not celebrated.
I dont agree with him on everything he writes. One point of his though.. Im sorry, you and your post is such a fine example in itself. You describe the problem so well, good with words, you have such a sober view. Where does that get us though (nowhere much really. ). Someone needs to make the tough decisions. Create the action. Make the stuff that you babble about, happen. Mobilize a Pandemic defense-system. Be it vaccinations or whatever. At this particular part of the process its more than obvious that our country suck at it. Our leaders are hesitant and weary. That is not their job, that is not what we elected them to do/be. Our authoritys are malfunctional, system failiure there. In general. If you are from the outside and gotten the chance to work with and see and be within the Swedish authority-system you know.. Theese endless meetings, theese endless talks of what should be done at work. That end up in nothing. Then there is 1 out of 20 that does work. There rest slack themselves thru the day.

And theese are the people running Sweden now.

They are some great talkers working there though and they know how to word it out for us, make a nice long ongoing presentation in front of the media..its swell. *sarcasm*
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->