There are 30 teams in the NHL. With, basically, 20 players per team that equals 600 players. If the average career is about 10 years that means that about 60 players from an average draft can expect to become full-time NHL players. A further breakdown looks like this: there are 180 1st line FWS, top pairing dfmen, or 1st string goalies in the NHL. If an average career for the better players as a top-line player is 10 years (at a 1st line level), that means we can logically expect the top 18 prospects of an average draft to become top line players. Therefore: - pick #1-18 = a top line FW or top pairing DF - #19-30 = 2nd line FW or 2nd pairing dfman. - #31-45= 3rd line FW, 5th dfman or back-up goalie - #46-60 = 4th line FW, 6th dfman, back-up goalie A fringe player may spend some time as a 3rd/4th liner but not for too long and may end up being a 13th fw, 7th df or regular call-up. The average for this might be about 6 years. If every team has about 6 of these players, that's 180 in the league. That becomes about 25 of this type of player per draft (based on 6 year turnover). So: - pick #60-90 = fringe player - #90-120 = cup of coffee The math above is very general but more or less on target I think. This should cause those who say things like "I rate player X #12. I think he'll be a good 3rd liner" or "I have player Y at #85. I predict 20-25 goals from him in the show" to think twice about what they are saying (and ranking).