Speculation: What would you be willing to give up for Kovalchuk?

[tc 23]

What do you guys think Kovalchuk's numbers will look like in the next few years? I realize that he affects a game in many areas besides his offence - terrific defensive play, physical play, even dropping the mitts if it's called for. I also realize his offensive numbers have been held back while playing in New Jersey because NJ plays a defensive system.

But he is turning 30 this season. And from what I have read, goal scoring forwards tend to peak early in their careers.

So considering this, but also considering his elite talent and the system he plays in and all the other factors, what do you think his offensive numbers will look like in the coming years?



Here are his goal totals so far.

Age (at start of season) - Goal Total

18 - 29
19 - 38
20 - 41 -- Peak Beginning
21 - na
22 - 52
23 - 42
24 - 52
25 - 43
26 - 41 -- Peak End
27 - 31
28 - 37

He scored in the 40s or 50s every single season between ages 20 - 27. Was this his peak?

I wouldn't necessarily say it was his peak. Keep in mind that while in Atlanta, the one and only thing Kovalchuk had to do was score goals, hence the high goal totals for that long stretch. Since coming into NJ, he's been called on to be more defensively responsible and has become a much better all-rounded player as of late. While he hasn't potted 40 since, he still put up 37 last season and 30 on a terrible Devils team the season before. I don't think Kovy's goal scoring abilities will disappear because of the kind of game he plays. Kovy's game seems to be based on using his speed and hockey sense to create room for himself to get a pass or shot off that, more often than not, results in a goal. Players whose game doesn't rely so heavily on being physical tend to remain consistent longer. For these reasons, I believe Kovy will continue to pot 30-40 for atleast 4-5 more seasons before slowing down to pot 20-30.

 

[strattonius]

While that was the calling point. If New Jersey is actively considering to move Kovalchuk, our plans abruptly change as a result. We have exactly the assets they would be looking for and would be foolish not to make a pitch. We can rebuild the prospect depth later on but good luck ever having an opportunity to run a juggernaut team that may arguably rival some of the dynasty teams in sheer scoring ability.

It would also be foolish to destroy our farm as well as open up more holes on our roster to attain Kovalchuk. This team's offense is run by the Sedins. The Canucks are already a very strong team from top to bottom and are arguably a solid top 6 RW'er away from once again contending for the cup. Considering Kovalchuk is likely to cost Edler, Luongo, Jensen and a 1st, do you really think this would be the best move going forward?

Like I said, if the cost is just Luongo, Raymond, Gaunce and a 1st I will hum and haw and probably pull the trigger.

 

[Luongos Knob]

I'd trade Schneider/Luongo + 1st + Jensen + Ballard at very most

 

[Orca Smash]

Ehh, I forget the article. I think it's somewhere in the Luongo thread or the #1 d-man thread.

I cant find this....

 

[Jabba The Hutton]

Made this proposal to NJ fans a few weeks ago and most were still staying no, although it was close.

Schneider
Kesler
Kassian

for

Kovalchuk
Zajac (going to UFA)

 

[Orca Smash]

No way ^^^^

From me anyway.

If we are trying to go after kovalchuk i would rather spend the farm trying to make cap space and a bid for perry rather then giving up kesler/schneider for kovalchuk.

 

[Wilch]

Made this proposal to NJ fans a few weeks ago and most were still staying no, although it was close.

Schneider
Kesler
Kassian

for

Kovalchuk
Zajac (going to UFA)

**** deal for us.

We give 2 game changers plus a blue chip prospect for 1 game changer and an upcoming UFA.

 

[Jyrki]

Kesler's better than Zajac and he's tied to a good contract for a couple more years... no thanks. I'd do Schneids + Kassian for Kovy though.

 

[Win One Before I Die]

Kovalchuk is the last thing the Canucks need. Lets get softer and go the OPPOSITE direction we have been going.

 

[Wilch]

Kovalchuk is the last thing the Canucks need. Lets get softer and go the OPPOSITE direction we have been going.

Yeah screw Kovalchuk, let's trade the Sedins for Hordichuk and Mike Rupp.

Nobody would mess with us now.

 

[Nuck Bonino]

Kovalchuk is not soft lol. Dude at least drops the gloves to stick up for himself and his teammates

 

[Jabba The Hutton]

Kesler's better than Zajac and he's tied to a good contract for a couple more years... no thanks. I'd do Schneids + Kassian for Kovy though.

In points Zajac and Kesler are very similar actually, but keep in mind getting Kovalchuk would give us 3 of the top 10 players in the world, it would be worth it.

Sedins-Burrows
Kovalchuk-Zajac-Higgins

Not sure how defenses could stop that.

 

[Jyrki]

In points Zajac and Kesler are very similar actually, but keep in mind getting Kovalchuk would give us 3 of the top 10 players in the world, it would be worth it.

Sedins-Burrows
Kovalchuk-Zajac-Higgins

Not sure how defenses could stop that.

And what do we do when Zajac AND Edler are due a new paycheck, now that we've got Kovalchuk's contract as well? We'd have to gut our defense or our forward depth.

 

[arsmaster*]

Kovalchuk is not soft lol. Dude at least drops the gloves to stick up for himself and his teammates

 

[huntison]

Schneider, Jensen and Raymond.

 

[Jabba The Hutton]

And what do we do when Zajac AND Edler are due a new paycheck, now that we've got Kovalchuk's contract as well? We'd have to gut our defense or our forward depth.

Schneider contract + Malhotra off books = 6.5m (Kovy contract)
Kesler contract = Zajac new contract
Bury d.booth or another contract + kassian contract = edler contract.

 

[DKQ]

NJ fan here chiming in. If we were to deal Kovy we would want forwards, both in the form of roster players and prospects. Schneider and Luongo are great goaltenders, but we are pretty content to go forward with our current goalie situation and would much rather address a major organizational need (lack of scoring forward depth at all levels) than make a deal centered around either of your goalies. A 2014 1st could also be a good piece since we won't have a 1st that year

 

[Cogburn]

NJ fan here chiming in. If we were to deal Kovy we would want forwards, both in the form of roster players and prospects. Schneider and Luongo are great goaltenders, but we are pretty content to go forward with our current goalie situation and would much rather address a major organizational need (lack of scoring forward depth at all levels) than make a deal centered around either of your goalies. A 2014 1st could also be a good piece since we won't have a 1st that year

We are sort of in the same boat, with a lack of high end scoring talent. We have the goalies as higher end moving pieces, or debatably Edler, but the Sedins aren't moving, and I don't see Kesler or Burrows either. Prospects...well I guess any of them can be added, it is Kovalchuk after all, but I don't think our roster forwards that we can afford to move have a ton of value.

Booth+Gaunce+Schroeder+1st or Booth+Raymond+Jensen+1st....I mean, is that...is that even in the ball park?

 

[DKQ]

We are sort of in the same boat, with a lack of high end scoring talent. We have the goalies as higher end moving pieces, or debatably Edler, but the Sedins aren't moving, and I don't see Kesler or Burrows either. Prospects...well I guess any of them can be added, it is Kovalchuk after all, but I don't think our roster forwards that we can afford to move have a ton of value.

Booth+Gaunce+Schroeder+1st or Booth+Raymond+Jensen+1st....I mean, is that...is that even in the ball park?

I wasn't expecting any super high end forwards, since that's what you're trying to add with Kovalchuk. Both offers are...meh. Booth is probably a must from a cap perspective, Raymond is a good addition, Jensen and Gaunce are both good pieces (Jensen more so). Schroeder isn't really an attractive piece to me, but I can't speak for the Devils, and the 1st is obviously a good piece. Neither package makes me want to give up Kovalchuk, but if he requested a trade or we were forced to deal him, the second package I could maybe live with. I feel like another team would give us a better deal though (Booth and Raymond aren't really conducive to a rebuild, which is what NJ would be doing without Kovy)

 

[luongo321]

We are sort of in the same boat, with a lack of high end scoring talent. We have the goalies as higher end moving pieces, or debatably Edler, but the Sedins aren't moving, and I don't see Kesler or Burrows either. Prospects...well I guess any of them can be added, it is Kovalchuk after all, but I don't think our roster forwards that we can afford to move have a ton of value.

Booth+Gaunce+Schroeder+1st or Booth+Raymond+Jensen+1st....I mean, is that...is that even in the ball park?

Gonna take a lot more than that.
Well, Schroeder kinda looks like an ahl'er. Raymond is always good if you want someone to trip over the blue line.

I would say not even close on either. Booth has no vision. I still don't mind him though. Hoping him and a healthy kesler can do some damage, but neither like to or know how to pass. We really need a playmaker for those two. I wish we had patrick kane (minus how much of a schmuck he is off of the ice).

 

[Barney Gumble]

We are sort of in the same boat, with a lack of high end scoring talent.

I know what you mean but it still sounds strange with a team that had two guys that won the Art Ross trophy in two of the last three years.

IMHO, bigger problems are the huge drop-off in goal scoring ability in our the bottom six.

 

[luongo321]

I know what you mean but it still sounds strange with a team that had two guys that won the Art Ross trophy in two of the last three years.

IMHO, bigger problems are the huge drop-off in goal scoring ability in our the bottom six.

Totally agree. I mean, the Sedins are super consistent and make brilliant plays all of the time, but even they don't have that frightening speed, deking/sniping ability. I actually think the Sedins have a fancy skillset that they don't use for whatever reason. Maybe they are too humble. I'm not sure why, but they have to have it because that goal they scored a few years back in the last game against Calgary shows it. Henrik's tip-pass between his legs and then Daniel pulls his stick/puck between his legs and makes kipper look like a minor leaguer. You'd think he'd try something like that in a shootout. No one on our team can really dangle and snipe. I mean, Kesler is just embarrassing when he tries to deke by someone. Now,the Oilers are loaded with those explosive, clutch players that can make a team look silly. NEED MORE EBERLE

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

NJ fan here chiming in. If we were to deal Kovy we would want forwards, both in the form of roster players and prospects. Schneider and Luongo are great goaltenders, but we are pretty content to go forward with our current goalie situation and would much rather address a major organizational need (lack of scoring forward depth at all levels) than make a deal centered around either of your goalies. A 2014 1st could also be a good piece since we won't have a 1st that year

The septuagenarians are going to have to retire sooner than later and although Frazee is putting up good numbers in the AHL, at 25 he has yet to play a game in the NHL; but who knows, he could end up being your Schneider.

Devils fans have been spoiled with possibly the best goaltending ever for a couple of decades now. You don't want to risk Frazee not panning out and going through what us Canuck fans (and now TO fans ) went through for years and years.

 

[Cogburn]

I wasn't expecting any super high end forwards, since that's what you're trying to add with Kovalchuk. Both offers are...meh. Booth is probably a must from a cap perspective, Raymond is a good addition, Jensen and Gaunce are both good pieces (Jensen more so). Schroeder isn't really an attractive piece to me, but I can't speak for the Devils, and the 1st is obviously a good piece. Neither package makes me want to give up Kovalchuk, but if he requested a trade or we were forced to deal him, the second package I could maybe live with. I feel like another team would give us a better deal though (Booth and Raymond aren't really conducive to a rebuild, which is what NJ would be doing without Kovy)

Raymond/Booth would more be a bandaid solution for losing a winger. Kovalchuk, obviously, is a tik higher then Booth, or several, what ever, but he has experience playing top line minutes in Florida, and his skills have translated over in Vancouver in his short time with us.

Raymond I thought would have been worth less than Schroeder, hence his inclusion from my side, but if he fills a gap for the Devils, I am more then happy to include him in other proposals.

I too prefer Jensen from what I have seen,and honestly, that's the hardest piece for me to give up in that package of 6 pieces. Gaunce won't be a bad player either, but I sorta think he will be more a Kesler kind of player, not a Henrik.

It sounds like the pieces are well received, but there isn't enough value to them individually to justify a trade. So no more, I'd rather quality then quantity as well for a star player. You've said no to Schneider as a main piece at this time, but what about Edler? Even if a lesser defenseman is included back from the Devils? And lastly, is there a way you could tweek my proposal(s) to make them more palpable to the Devils needs/wants and not include one of our top 4 forwards or Hamhuis?

Gonna take a lot more than that.
Well, Schroeder kinda looks like an ahl'er. Raymond is always good if you want someone to trip over the blue line.

I would say not even close on either. Booth has no vision. I still don't mind him though. Hoping him and a healthy kesler can do some damage, but neither like to or know how to pass. We really need a playmaker for those two. I wish we had patrick kane (minus how much of a schmuck he is off of the ice).

Raymond isn't as bad as that, but he's certainly not a fit here on the fourth line. Schroeder I am still holding hope for, but if he's next to worthless to other teams, I'm happy to keep him and see if he pans out.

Booth is fast, fairly physical (although he definitely needs to add some strength IMO) and has hands, but my only concern from his play is his health, having just one 82 game season his whole career. I wouldn't he is totally devoid of vision or hockey sense, but it's definately not a strength. You don't score 20 goals in this league, twice, let alone a thirty goal season, on nothing but pluck and luck. I'd rather keep Booth as well....but I mean, c'mon, it's Kovalchuk, right? I won't shed tears about how good Booth and Kesler could have been with a playmaker if it means one of the best snipers in the game coming our way.

I know what you mean but it still sounds strange with a team that had two guys that won the Art Ross trophy in two of the last three years.

IMHO, bigger problems are the huge drop-off in goal scoring ability in our the bottom six.

Sorry, I wrote that this morning. Good clarification. This is exactly what I wanted to say. But in the event that the Sedin Machine is shut down, we haven't got anyone we can rely. Good save, Mr. Gumble. Outside of the Sedins, whom we have no desire or need to trade, our offence is less than reliable.

 

[me2]

**** deal for us.

We give 2 game changers plus a blue chip prospect for 1 game changer and an upcoming UFA.

but it's also not good for them.

Kesler = Zajac. Kesler is better but Zajac is healthier.

Kovy for Kassian and Schneider. NJ win this if they get an elite goalie and Bertuzzi clone. OTOH they could end up with nothing. Schneider might just turn out to be an average goalie when forced to play a whole season and Kassian has shown signs of going either way. I wouldn't make that deal if it was going to the other.