While one doesn't doubt the sincerity of your views or wishes, or that that Hen Kolland has been a little provocative, your last few posts come across as incredibly arrogant, blinkered and patronising.
You do realise that multiple people can invest time in looking at something and reach different conclusions, particularly when it comes to projecting the future, and assessing the best of multiple options with no direct recent historical comparison like for like?
Your extensive watching hockey and Dynasty leagues may make you more knowledgeable on certain elements, but it certainly doesn't afford you the right to dictate absolutism in a conversation that cannot by definition be resolved absolutely. And 'the my friends are smarter than your friends' line is hardly endearing, when the only certainty we have is that there is more than one way to skin a cat, and it is the specifics that define the comparative success of competing methodologies.
I personally would take Karlsson in the very unlikely event he doesn't get a better offer elsewhere, for the following reasons:
1) He would be the best D we've had since Lidstrom, and while he will inevitably slow down, his PPG is still high and stable, and injury permitting could easily remain so for several years.
2) He's excellent on the PP. We have been awful on the PP for a number of years now, but with the impending arrival of Zadina, our next draft pick(s), and the development of Rasmussen and our young D, a top level PP D-man could be massive for both their development and the team.
3) Given our record at drafting D, it seems unlikely we'll find anyone that way any time soon that can play at Karlsson's level.
4) Equally, the red wings finally have 2-3 Dmen coming up who could be regular 2nd liner's without being above their heads, which, if augmented by Karlsson's arrival, and the retention of some of our current regular D, would give us the most exciting D core since we last made it to the SC final, only most of our roster would be younger players.
5) We all want to draft a star. Karlsson is a star...if we get lucky this year, maybe we'll have 2 stars! In all seriousness though, the last few draft lotteries have taught us that even if this team remains awful, we might still never get a top 5 pick, and signing an elite player in FA would compensate.
6) While it is far from certain, if our recent draft picks and younger players continue to develop as most have over the last 12-18 months, we could find ourselves being a playoff team soon enough anyway, depending on the evolution of other teams.
7) He's an extremely entertaining player, who would fit it well with what Blash's system hopes to be. If nothing else watching the team would be a lot more exciting.
8) You land EK and suddenly other FA's look at you very differently.
Now of course it isn't without risk. Its a gamble that is dependent on the success of other elements alongside it to really be seen as successful in the long term. It would certainly require someone with more defensive instincts to flourish as a partner for him.
But ultimately all the options on the table have risk. As others have said, nothing offers guarantees.
Sure you might Draft Sid & Geno or Kane and Toews, or Matthews and Marner. But Edmonton have drafted lots of top players in round 1, but have nothing to show for it. Arizona are still not a playoff team despite how many high picks? Buffalo are finally improving, but STILL aren't a playoff team. The Devils remain massively reliant on 1 man to be competitive. etc
What if our fwds all continue developing but we never find that #1 D, and are locked into picking 10-20 every year, and don't nail those picks?
What if we continue to be poor but never get any lottery luck?
What if we do finally draft a defensive superstar but not for another 7 years?
Personally, I'd go hard for multiple top Free Agents, and be willing to trade the likes of Daley for peanuts and cap dump Abby etc in order to make the cap work. As in this year, we may see other high quality FAs hit the market. While unlikely, as has been pointed out, bag EK and Trouba in back to back years and suddenly our biggest weakness is a strength
Do I think its going to happen? NO.
Is it impossible? NO.
But to ascribe certainty or absolutism because you 'know more' is not just insulting to everyone else, but also gets you into the entrenched tunnel thinking that has exactly the impact that you complain about.
I think collectively, as you do watch so many other teams, most would find it more interesting to benefit from that knowledge re draft options, trade targets or DRW prospects, particularly as you suggest you take interest in how they fit into playing styles, synergies and the broader picture. I for one would find that more interesting and useful than seeing my preferred strategy ridiculed (not directly with me obvs), when the myriad of variables mean it is impossible for me and those who agree with me to be fundamentally wrong.
