Speculation: What top 4D could Anders Lee return?

[rent free]

Oilers would Flip Klefbom

i want yamahato

 

[HockeyAnalystGenius]

Is it fair? Yeah. Does it excite me as a sens fan? I mean, not really.

I doubt he gets traded unsigned. Everyone says "sign and trades never happen", and they don't often. But trading of franchise players also never happen. If Edmonton is giving up a lot of assets, they want the guarantee.

I also don't really see a scenario where Karlsson goes to EDM without one of Draisaitl or RNH being the main piece coming back.

i want yamahato

Then add a 2ned...Anders Lee is NOT sustainability.

 

[rent free]

Then add a 2ned...Anders Lee is NOT sustainability.

ok will do

 

[HockeyAnalystGenius]

ok will do

You are the only poster with a brain

 

[Magic Man]

dermott. guy has top-4 potential. let him play there.

Maybe put him beside Gards or Rielly and you need one more good dman for that top-4. If you remove Gards you're stuck with 2, one being very new to the league.

 

[Rangediddy]

Brodie's 2 down seasons would have me very leery.

His down seasons can be explained. Off ice distractions and a bad system to play in. Obviously we would be trading him at a lower value than what he's had a couple years ago, or will have once the personal issues are dealt with. The fact is he's a potential top 2 d man, solid #3 and is on the market.

 

[72hockey guy]

Who do *YOU* think Lee could land? You asked the question in the OP, Crew, but every single legitimate top four option that's been suggested has been shot down without hesitation.

You're not getting a Doughty, Hedman, Karlsson, Subban, Josi, etc. for Lee. So if you believe anything below that level of defenseman isn't worth Lee, then you're probably not going to be trading Lee for a defenseman.

sid none of them are worth lee and you of all people know it, youre being disingenuous here, name the last current 40 goal scorer traded for a Scandella or Gardiner or Klefbom or Brodie. Ill wait for your reply

and by current I meantraded off a 40 goal season for a defenseman of that caliber

 

[Juxtaposer]

Would want Braun so bad on the Panthers. Interested in Bjugstad?

Not sure. I didn’t get a chance to watch the Panthers much this season but his stats look good. What’s the scoop with him?

 

[EastonBlues22]

There's no "history" that strongly suggests Lee will regress, just vague references to other players and crystal ball predictions. Ignoring Lee's net-strong, "offensive rebound" type of goal playstyle that's radically different from the way a player like Ovechkin or Boeser scores most of their goals. When you're scoring goals in front of the net, your percentage will be high: lots of tap-ins and deflections which inflate your shooting percentage. I've never actually cared that much about Lee's shooting percentage, but I do know with his style of game and a talented center, he can easily pot 30-40 as long as he's healthy. But you're comparing his shooting percentage to Stamkos, missing the mark in the difference in playing styles.

All season long fans have been discrediting any and all Islanders players who do anything remotely impressive. Every Barzal thread is filled with the same vague references to other players and crystal ball predictions that all follow the same "LOL you delusional Islander fans he'll be bad soon just you wait" pattern. We had an atrocious season. Yet the few bright spots we can't be happy about either - as fans insist on "correcting" us that Barzal is a 70-point player at best. We've heard "unsustainable" oh so many times, that we're naive stupid homers for thinking Barzal could hit 50 points. We're sick of hearing "unsustainable", and we're not going into Colton Parayko threads to say he's comparable to Luke Schenn or whatever.

So yes, you want to discredit Islander players and say they'll regress in the future because you say so? I'm gonna equate your post to "Islanders lulz".

I "compared" him to everyone who has ever played the game of hockey since 1967, and also to all current active players. If you think that Lee is the only active player who has successfully played the style of game that he plays, or that he plays it better than anyone in modern history has ever played it before, then you are simply wrong. I've already named one guy who mastered the art in Tkachuk, who is going to easily eclipse Lee in terms of peak and almost certainly in terms of career, which you're conveniently ignoring.

Nothing about what I said "discredits" what he's done. It's simply a cautionary tale about what's likely to happen moving forward. If you can't see the sense in what's been said, or at least digest it enough to have a decent conversation about it, that's on you...but don't project your insecurities and hangups onto my motivations.

 

[CodeE]

I "compared" him to everyone who has ever played the game of hockey since 1967, and also to all current active players. If you think that Lee is the only active player who has successfully played the style of game that he plays, or that he plays it better than anyone in modern history has ever played it before, then you are simply wrong. I've already named one guy who mastered the art in Tkachuk, who is going to easily eclipse Lee in terms of peak and almost certainly in terms of career, which you're conveniently ignoring.

Nothing about what I said "discredits" what he's done. It's simply a cautionary tale about what's likely to happen moving forward. If you can't see the sense in what's been said, or at least digest it enough to have a decent conversation about it, that's on you...but don't project your insecurities and hangups onto my motivations.

Your argument was picked apart directly after you posted it:

Look at a heat map of where he scores his goals, 5 foot radius from the net. His shooting percentage is high because all of his chances are rebounds, deflections, and that sick backhand in tight. He's no frills, nothing fancy. He parks his ass in front of the net and creates havoc. Old school. Tim Kerr clone.

You're comparing Lee's shooting percentage to everyone else in the NHL, specifically a lot to Stamkos. Stamkos is a far more offensively gifted player than Lee - players like him, Crosby, McDavid, Barzal, etc etc are many times the main focus of attack when their line is in the offensive zone.

Lee is a complimentary player, albeit a very good one who is very good at the hockey equivalent of "offensive rebounds". So to compare his game to "all current active players", or even other 40+ goal scorers, is deliberately only telling a fraction of the story and ignoring the full picture. Like if I were to trash Colton Parayko because he doesn't put up offensive numbers like Erik Karlsson - you'd want to defend Parayko by pointing out he plays an entirely different game than Karlsson. I sure wouldn't then accuse you of being insecure and projecting hangups for daring to defend your player.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Anders Lee was drafted late because he was deciding between hockey and football, then after committing to hockey he played 3 full years of college and one in the AHL. Regardless of what his age was at the time, it was still his sophomore season... he still had to acclimate to the league, and that 12% was recorded as a rookie. His sh% is unusually high because of the style he plays. Almost all of his goals are tip ins, deflections or rebounds from right on top of the goalie.

Yeah, I'm intimately familiar with his game, but thanks.

Tip-ins and rebounds are still subject to the whims of variability, which should not be a surprise since you are literally talking about events that depend on the puck bouncing off things. Tip-ins and rebounds don't defy age, either. Tkachuk was a master of the art, and only 10 of his 18 NHL seasons were over 14%...with 6 of those coming in the first 6 seasons after his rookie year, and only 4 coming in his last 11 seasons. He played until he was 37, and generally played well through almost all of that, but his career still peaked and declined like anyone else's.

If you don't want to believe it, that's fine. I'm not here to convert anyone who doesn't want to hear it. We can agree to disagree and time will ultimately show the truth of it.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Your argument was picked apart directly after you posted it:



You're comparing Lee's shooting percentage to everyone else in the NHL, specifically a lot to Stamkos. Stamkos is a far more offensively gifted player than Lee - players like him, Crosby, McDavid, Barzal, etc etc are many times the main focus of attack when their line is in the offensive zone.

Lee is a complimentary player, albeit a very good one who is very good at the hockey equivalent of "offensive rebounds". So to compare his game to "all current active players", or even other 40+ goal scorers, is deliberately only telling a fraction of the story and ignoring the full picture. Like if I were to trash Colton Parayko because he doesn't put up offensive numbers like Erik Karlsson - you'd want to defend Parayko by pointing out he plays an entirely different game than Karlsson. I sure wouldn't then accuse you of being insecure and projecting hangups for daring to defend your player.

You're still not getting it.

Stamkos' name came up, yes, but my post was not a direct comparison between the two players in any way. If you don't think Tkachuk had a heat map like the one Lee has, or that no other active players (or players going back to 1967) do as well, I don't know what to tell you. Lee's simply not as unique as you are making him out to be. There are a lot of NHL players who make their living in front of the net, since most goals are scored within 10' of the net, yet there is no player like Lee who has ever sustained that sort of shooting percentage over the long haul...at least not while putting up the sort of goal totals that Lee is currently putting up. Lee hasn't even done it himself.

The last two years represents a 67% increase in shooting percentage over what he did the first 180 games of his career through age 25. If you're comfortable saying that's his new baseline, then fine. I disagree, and we can leave it at that.

 

[72hockey guy]

I "compared" him to everyone who has ever played the game of hockey since 1967, and also to all current active players. If you think that Lee is the only active player who has successfully played the style of game that he plays, or that he plays it better than anyone in modern history has ever played it before, then you are simply wrong. I've already named one guy who mastered the art in Tkachuk, who is going to easily eclipse Lee in terms of peak and almost certainly in terms of career, which you're conveniently ignoring.

Nothing about what I said "discredits" what he's done. It's simply a cautionary tale about what's likely to happen moving forward. If you can't see the sense in what's been said, or at least digest it enough to have a decent conversation about it, that's on you...but don't project your insecurities and hangups onto my motivations.

you cant say that "Tkachuk, who is going to easily eclipse Lee in terms of peak" because he hasnt done it yet, unless you have the crystal ball Crew keeps accusing you of using. its the same as when sabres fans said eichel was better than tavares, when is that supposed to start exactly. and if youre referring to keith and not his sons, he was traded for 2 1sts a 2nd,3rd and Glen Metropolit hardly the trash offered for Lee in this thread

if someone offered the islanders 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd and an nhl player im sure the isles would consider it, just like the blues did with Keith YOURE THE ONE NOT GETTING IT

HE IS WHAT HE IS NOW, in this nhl. its not the gretzky NHL ANYMORE

 

[CodeE]

You're still not getting it.

Stamkos' name came up, yes, but my post was not a direct comparison between the two players in any way. If you don't think Tkachuk had a heat map like the one Lee has, or that no other active players (or players going back to 1967) do as well, I don't know what to tell you. Lee's simply not as unique as you are making him out to be. There are a lot of NHL players who make their living in front of the net, since most goals are scored within 10' of the net, yet there is no player like Lee who has ever sustained that sort of shooting percentage over the long haul...at least not while putting up the sort of goal totals that Lee is currently putting up. Lee hasn't even done it himself.

The last two years represents a 67% increase in shooting percentage over what he did the first 180 games of his career through age 25. If you're comfortable saying that's his new baseline, then fine. I disagree, and we can leave it at that.

And honestly, that's what annoys me. Instead of being impressed that Lee has 163 combined games (hardly a small sample size) performing with a high shooting percentage, you look for ways to discredit it. To call it "unsustainable", and inform us Islander fans there's no way he's keeping up this level of performance.

Again, if I marched into a Colton Parayko thread looking to negatively discredit his game with flimsy "he's not good enough to put up the numbers he's putting up" arguments, I'm sure you and all the other Blues fans would shoot down my crap as well. Not sure why you want to cling so strongly to the notion that Anders Lee absolutely has to get worse starting right now.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Parayko is the type of dman I'd trade him for, Brodie too OEL too and maybe Brodin. You can't trade him for a guy that doesn't headline a second pairing at least, because than you'd might as well re-sign de Haan.

 

[Shwabeal]

Parayko is the type of dman I'd trade him for, Brodie too OEL too and maybe Brodin. You can't trade him for a guy that doesn't headline a second pairing at least, because than you'd might as well re-sign de Haan.

I know you said "Parayko type of dman" and not actually Parayko, but the Blues can't afford to move him for a LW. Lee's net front presence and goal scoring would be welcome but the Blues have to find a center for the 2nd line first or his scoring would take a pretty big hit because they'd have no one that could get him the puck. If he was a RH RW, it wouldn't be the worst idea, but even then it would probably be a no. I wish the Blues had a guy like Lee. (But with a more sustainable SH% )

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I know you said "Parayko type of dman" and not actually Parayko, but the Blues can't afford to move him for a LW. Lee's net front presence and goal scoring would be welcome but the Blues have to find a center for the 2nd line first or his scoring would take a pretty big hit because they'd have no one that could get him the puck. If he was a RH RW, it wouldn't be the worst idea, but even then it would probably be a no. I wish the Blues had a guy like Lee. (But with a more sustainable SH% )

Lmao I actually looked at the roster to see if there was a fit, noticed that LW was not a need and was disappointed... value wise I liked it.

 

[EastonBlues22]

you cant say that "Tkachuk, who is going to easily eclipse Lee in terms of peak" because he hasnt done it yet, unless you have the crystal ball Crew keeps accusing you of using. its the same as when sabres fans said eichel was better than tavares, when is that supposed to start exactly. and if youre referring to keith and not his sons, he was traded for 2 1sts a 2nd,3rd and Glen Metropolit hardly the trash offered for Lee in this thread

if someone offered the islanders 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd and an nhl player im sure the isles would consider it, just like the blues did with Keith YOURE THE ONE NOT GETTING IT

HE IS WHAT HE IS NOW, in this nhl. its not the gretzky NHL ANYMORE

Tkachuk had 294 goals (including two 50+ goal seasons, two 40+ goal seasons, and a 30+ goal season) by the time he was Lee's age...with 98, 86, 81, 68, and 66 point seasons already in the bag.

Lee's peak thus far consists of a exactly two seasons: a 40 goal/62 point season and a 34 goal/52 point effort.

It's, frankly, not even close at this point, and age 27 is generally established to be towards the end of a forward's production peak. Lee's going to have to pull some serious stuff out of his butt the next couple of years to even make it a conversation. Saying Tkachuk is a better player than Lee is not exactly controversial for anyone who has seen the two play through their primes.

I have no idea what your trade rantings are about. I'm not here to waste my time with trade proposals, but whatever Lee does next year, he's hardly a risk to be a bad value at only $3.75 million. That's mid-to-low end 3rd liner money, and Lee's rental value should absolutely reflect that lack of downside (and correspondingly huge upside) if he's actually shopped.

My interest here is pretty much limited to his next contract. Assuming he doesn't fall apart next year, he's going to be able to command quite a lot based upon his recent goal scoring numbers. Would you be comfortable with the Islanders re-signing him to a contract worth $6+ million AAV over 5+ years? Backes (another sand-paper, net-front, two-way, leadership/intangibles guy) just commanded that at age 32, and his goal scoring didn't peak as high as Lee's (though he does get more assists).

I wouldn't be comfortable with that.

 

[EastonBlues22]

And honestly, that's what annoys me. Instead of being impressed that Lee has 163 combined games (hardly a small sample size) performing with a high shooting percentage, you look for ways to discredit it. To call it "unsustainable", and inform us Islander fans there's no way he's keeping up this level of performance.

Again, if I marched into a Colton Parayko thread looking to negatively discredit his game with flimsy "he's not good enough to put up the numbers he's putting up" arguments, I'm sure you and all the other Blues fans would shoot down my crap as well. Not sure why you want to cling so strongly to the notion that Anders Lee absolutely has to get worse starting right now.

You're putting words in my mouth.

Who said I'm not impressed? I enjoy watching the Islanders play, and I don't particularly care if they lose, so I watch them a decent amount and generally enjoy those games since they play an entertaining style. Watching Lee play is part of that. He's a good player.

I also never said "he absolutely has to get worse," and certainly not "right now." In fact, I've gone out of my way on multiple occasions to say that he could be the exception...I just think the odds are stacked against him, and I've pointed out why.

Variance is a thing. So are outliers. You can't talk in absolutes when you're talking about those things, and I certainly haven't been using that sort of language, so once again you're reading into my post something that simply isn't there.

 

[72hockey guy]

Tkachuk had 294 goals (including two 50+ goal seasons, two 40+ goal seasons, and a 30+ goal season) by the time he was Lee's age...with 98, 86, 81, 68, and 66 point seasons already in the bag.

Lee's peak thus far consists of a exactly two seasons: a 40 goal/62 point season and a 34 goal/52 point effort.

It's, frankly, not even close at this point, and age 27 is generally established to be towards the end of a forward's production peak. Lee's going to have to pull some serious stuff out of his butt the next couple of years to even make it a conversation. Saying Tkachuk is a better player than Lee is not exactly controversial for anyone who has seen the two play through their primes.

I have no idea what your trade rantings are about. I'm not here to waste my time with trade proposals, but whatever Lee does next year, he's hardly a risk to be a bad value at only $3.75 million. That's mid-to-low end 3rd liner money, and Lee's rental value should absolutely reflect that lack of downside (and correspondingly huge upside) if he's actually shopped.

My interest here is pretty much limited to his next contract. Assuming he doesn't fall apart next year, he's going to be able to command quite a lot based upon his recent goal scoring numbers. Would you be comfortable with the Islanders re-signing him to a contract worth $6+ million AAV over 5+ years? Backes (another sand-paper, net-front, two-way, leadership/intangibles guy) just commanded that at age 32, and his goal scoring didn't peak as high as Lee's (though he does get more assists).

I wouldn't be comfortable with that.

ONCE AGAIN THIS IS NOT GRETZKYS NHL

YOU KEEP INSISTING IT IS

SO I GUESS TARASENKO IS TRASH TOO

I WOULDNT BE COMFORTABLE WITH TRYING TO SAY THAT THE THE GAME HASNT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN

DURING KEITH HEY DAY THEIR WERE 19 100 POINT SCORERS IN THE NHL (1985) IN 2018 THERE WERE 3

YOUR ENTIRE ARGUMENT IS **** AND YOU KNOW IT YOURE COMPARING APPLES TO ORANGES..... YOU NEED TO EQUALIZE THE DATA FOR IT TO BE RELEVANT

 

[Colt55]

Parayko is the type of dman I'd trade him for, Brodie too OEL too and maybe Brodin. You can't trade him for a guy that doesn't headline a second pairing at least, because than you'd might as well re-sign de Haan.

We are not trading parayko for another lwer.

 

[72hockey guy]

We are not trading parayko for another lwer.

Colt im not saying you should, im just pointing out that easton is making a bogus argumentw hich he knows is false on its face. he's way too intelligent to think he can get away with that. I know the man ive read his posts for ten years so i know hes better than that

put it this way.... if you did need defense. I agree you truly dont but if you did, would YOU trade Tarasenko for the likes of Scandella, Gardiner, klefbom or Brodie?

you dont need to answer, i read your posts too, Youd say "hell no" and wouldnt even think twice and thats true even if you have great prospects like Thomas and Kyrou who could possibly replace Tarasenko

if you were trading Tarasenko or in this case Lee, youd expect more or you wouldnt trade him and no bogus argument changes that

Tarasenko and Lee are every bit as good as Keith Tkatchuk when you adjust for the changes in he game over the last 20-25 years

put it this way in 1985 there were 34 ppg players in 2018 there are 20

the 34th highest scorer was your own brayden Schenn at 70 points, that was good for 60th in the NHL in 1985

SO only an idiot would try to pass that off as equivalent and trust me Easton Blues is about as far from an idiot as ive ever known, he's just as smart as any poster here including myself, so i wasnt going to let him get away with a lazy argument... I respect him too much to do so

 

[rent free]

You are the only poster with a brain

That makes two of us

 

[rent free]

We are not trading parayko for another lwer.

Then trade him for a rwer. Nylander

 

[Colt55]

Colt im not saying you should, im just pointing out that easton is making a bogus argumentw hich he knows is false on its face. he's way too intelligent to think he can get away with that. I know the man ive read his posts for ten years so i know hes better than that

put it this way if you did need defense. I agree you truly dont but if you did, would YOU trade Tarasenko for the likes of Scandella, Gardiner, klefbom or Brodie?

you dont need to answer, i read your posts too, Youd say "hell no" and wouldnt even think twice and thats true even if you have great prospects like Thomas and Kyrou who could possibly replace Tarasenko

if you were trading Tarasenko or in this case Lee, youd expect more or you wouldnt trade him and no bogus argument changes that

Tarasenko is legit player, his sh% is a Lil more normal, on top of that tarasenko is a tier or two above lee and 1 year younger. He is also signed for 5 more years where lee is signed for 1. You can't compare the two. On top of that parayko is a teir above the defensemen you mentioned and signed for a long time.

I'm pretty sure easton wouldn't want me to back him up cause I'm more of an in your face type. But he is right. You are over valuing your player who happens to have one if the best centers in the league centering him.