Confirmed with Link: What to do with Trouba? (UPD: 1y/5.5m arb award)

[nobody imp0rtant]

I also think it is cut and dried that rentals are a bad strategy, including own rentals. But that is purely my opinion. I will maintain that till I die - I'm absolutely convinced of it. But it is still opinion.

Cut and dried, and not open for debate. Can anyone provide an instance where a rental acquisition was absolutely the determining factor in that team winning the Cup? I doubt it. I don't think it can be done. Too many variables. Whereas the instances of a team acquiring a rental and not winning the Cup are there for all to see.

 

[ps241]

Cut and dried, and not open for debate. Can anyone provide an instance where a rental acquisition was absolutely the determining factor in that team winning the Cup? I doubt it. I don't think it can be done. Too many variables. Whereas the instances of a team acquiring a rental and not winning the Cup are there for all to see.

Off the top of my head The LA Kings won the cup in in 2013-14 by the thinnest of margins. That season rental Marion Gaborik had a huge playoffs and registered 22 points in 26 games. I don't think they would have won the cup that season without him in the mix.

You might not be asking the question in the only fashion that flushes out the cost benefit. I think you might want to ask has there been an instance of a team who has won the cup that didn't add assets at the trade deadline?? I am not the biggest fan of doing it but it does seem like much smarter guys than me think its how you roll when you are right there. If I had more time it would be great to go back and figure out what teams gave up to acquire rentals in the seasons they won cups and what the cost of said rentals actually ended up turning in to??

 

[DRW204]

Off the top of my head The LA Kings won the cup in in 2013-14 by the thinnest of margins. That season rental Marion Gaborik had a huge playoffs and registered 22 points in 26 games. I don't think they would have won the cup that season without him in the mix.

You might not be asking the question in the only fashion that flushes out the cost benefit. I think you might want to ask has there been an instance of a team who has won the cup that didn't add assets at the trade deadline?? I am not the biggest fan of doing it but it does seem like much smarter guys than me think its how you roll when you are right there. If I had more time it would be great to go back and figure out what teams gave up to acquire rentals in the seasons they won cups and what the cost of said rentals actually ended up turning in to??

2010 CHI might have been the last one

2011 BOS - Kaberle for Colborne, 1st and 2nd
2012 LAK - Carter for Jack Johnson and a 1st
2013 CHI - Handzus for a 4th
2014 LAK - Gaborik for Matt Frattin, a 2nd and a 3rd
2015 CHI - Vermette for Klas Dahlback and a 1st
2016 PIT - J. Schultz for a 3rd
2017 PIT - Hainsey for Danny Kristo and a 2nd
2018 WSH - Kempny for 3rd

 

[sting13]

John Carlson just signed 8 year-$8 million a year with the Caps. He is a right shooting number #1 D-man on the the #1 PP unit. Just getting into his prime. Can't see Trouba getting over $7 million a year based on this contract.

 

[10Ducky10]

All of Carlson's years are UFA years. Trouba still has two years of RFA left. He shouldn't get 8m a year.
Laine or Wheeler might deserve it but Trouba doesn't...I can see him getting 7m though.

 

[Bob E]

Can’t see Jets going over $6.5 mill for Trouba. His offence isn’t $7 - $8 mill worthy.

 

[Whileee]

Can’t see Jets going over $6.5 mill for Trouba. His offence isn’t $7 - $8 mill worthy.

His even strength point production is top-20, and not much behind Carlson. His overall production is dampened because he isn't on the PP. He probably should be on PP2 over Myers.

 

[surixon]

His even strength point production is top-20, and not much behind Carlson. His overall production is dampened because he isn't on the PP. He probably should be on PP2 over Myers.

As much as I like Trouba they gave him first crack this past season on PP unit 2 and didn't perform as well as Myers this past year.

I also suspect Morrissey will pass Trouba by on the PP depth chart soon

 

[Sweech]

As much as I like Trouba they gave him first crack this past season on PP unit 2 and didn't perform as well as Myers this past year.

I also suspect Morrissey will pass Trouba by on the PP depth chart soon

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s someone like Niku who jumps up onto the PP2.

 

[cbcwpg]

Trouba contract could take time to resolve: Arbitration might be a temporary solution

 

[surixon]

Trouba contract could take time to resolve: Arbitration might be a temporary solution

Pretty short sighted by Wiebe. Yeah one year worth if relief but does he really think it's smart to have Trouba one year away from UFA the same summer he also has to sign Laine and keep Wheeler. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

 

[LowLefty]

As much as I like Trouba they gave him first crack this past season on PP unit 2 and didn't perform as well as Myers this past year.

I also suspect Morrissey will pass Trouba by on the PP depth chart soon

I don't think Trouba is going to grow into a offensive beast at any point - but he's a solid, top pairing shut down D-man - how much are they going for these days?

 

[MardyBum]

I don't think Trouba is going to grow into a offensive beast at any point - but he's a solid, top pairing shut down D-man - how much are they going for these days?

He is an offensive beast at 5v5. Top 10 in the league in 5v5 p/60 scoring in the last two years. He just hasn't gotten top pairing minutes. If Myers is gone and he gets a bump up in minutes his raw totals will go up.

 

[mcpw]

2016-18 5v5

Subban 46 points in 148 games
Byfuglien 44 in 149
Suter 43 in 160
Chara 42 in 148
Doughty 40 in 164
Trouba 40 in 115
Ellis 38 in 115

"Not an offensive defenseman"

 

[Saidin]

2016-18 5v5

Subban 46 points in 148 games
Byfuglien 44 in 149
Suter 43 in 160
Chara 42 in 148
Doughty 40 in 164
Trouba 40 in 115
Ellis 38 in 115

"Not an offensive defenseman"

Shhh, have to wait to sign him long term then post this.

 

[scelaton]

He is an offensive beast at 5v5. Top 10 in the league in 5v5 p/60 scoring in the last two years. He just hasn't gotten top pairing minutes. If Myers is gone and he gets a bump up in minutes his raw totals will go up.

There are lots of ways to parse the numbers, but separating 5v5 from total points isn't necessarily the best one. The highest paid D in the league are also PP beasts and it shows in their totals. Here is an example from just the Jets over the past 3 reg seasons :
Buff: Total points-9th in NHL; P/GP -16th in NHL; TOI/GP-5th in NHL
Trouba: Total points-56th in NHL; P/GP-66th TOI/GP-32nd

If Trouba were so great on the PP, he would have more PP time and points, but the fact is that he isn't. I'm surprised how offensively uncreative he is relative to the top tier of D in the league and, even on our team, compared to Buff and Myers.

 

[LowLefty]

Stat's don't lie but I'm surprised by these numbers.
Flying under the Radar - thanks for the eye opener

 

[Bob E]

I don’t think Trouba is poor on the pp, I just think we have better options currently. It’s something that Trouba needs to develop, but if he does, he could easily be a 10-15 goal/30-40 assist dman. Who is pretty good defensively, btw.

 

[surixon]

I don’t think Trouba is poor on the pp, I just think we have better options currently. It’s something that Trouba needs to develop, but if he does, he could easily be a 10-15 goal/30-40 assist dman. Who is pretty good defensively, btw.

Trouba scores well at ES due to housing his physical gifts to jump up in the play either as a puck rusher or without it. He also volume shooter which helps.

What he doesn't show a lot of is patience with the puck on the point and he doesn't read the play and move the puck fluidly enough on the point to really be elite on the PP. He more often then not just wants to put his head down and fire the puck.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Off the top of my head The LA Kings won the cup in in 2013-14 by the thinnest of margins. That season rental Marion Gaborik had a huge playoffs and registered 22 points in 26 games. I don't think they would have won the cup that season without him in the mix.

You might not be asking the question in the only fashion that flushes out the cost benefit. I think you might want to ask has there been an instance of a team who has won the cup that didn't add assets at the trade deadline?? I am not the biggest fan of doing it but it does seem like much smarter guys than me think its how you roll when you are right there. If I had more time it would be great to go back and figure out what teams gave up to acquire rentals in the seasons they won cups and what the cost of said rentals actually ended up turning in to??

You also need to look at the teams that added at the TD and did not win the cup. And consider how many possibilities exist of it being won by a team that didn't add. If all PO teams always add then there will never be an instance of a winner that did not add.

Dumber guys than you also think that is how it should be done. Smarter guys than you keep trying to draft the next Chara and pass on really good players because they are 'only' 5'10.

Well, I'm assuming they are smarter than you because they have those jobs. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit - or you too little.

 

[cbcwpg]

IMO regardless of what the Jets do with Trouba, they sure need to do it soon. It all starts with Trouba as far as making offers for all the other players and setting a roster for next season. Do something....

 

[Jack722]

You also need to look at the teams that added at the TD and did not win the cup.

I'm not sure that's the right way to look at it. Lots of teams have made all kinds of smart moves and never won a cup; there are teams that have drafted well, been patient, taken care of their assets and not won the cup. That doesn't mean that doing those things doesn't work... winning the cup is really tough.

It likely ends up breaking down something like:
Adding a (good) rental increases odds of winning the cup by 1.7%.
The assets lost for the rental decrease the long-term odds over the next 4 years of winning the cup by .4% per year.

Obviously made up numbers but IMO it's something like that.

 

[ERYX]

Trouba contract could take time to resolve: Arbitration might be a temporary solution

This article — and more importantly he fact that there’s been no deal yet — is doing nothing to persuade me I’m wrong that Trouba still doesn’t want to be in winnipeg or at least not for a grievous overpayment.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not sure that's the right way to look at it. Lots of teams have made all kinds of smart moves and never won a cup; there are teams that have drafted well, been patient, taken care of their assets and not won the cup. That doesn't mean that doing those things doesn't work... winning the cup is really tough.

It likely ends up breaking down something like:
Adding a (good) rental increases odds of winning the cup by 1.7%.
The assets lost for the rental decrease the long-term odds over the next 4 years of winning the cup by .4% per year.

Obviously made up numbers but IMO it's something like that.

My point was simply that if you are going to evaluate TD rentals you need to look at the entire picture.

I like your made up numbers well enough but you didn't go far enough. "The assets lost for the rental decrease the long-term odds over the next 4 years of winning the cup by .4% per year" and by 1.2% each year for another 6 years after that.

Looking at a hypothetical and starting with a fact that we need to move a 4+ mil contract this off-season we can see some possibilities. 1) Perreault traded for a couple of 2nd rd picks, adding good value to our prospect pool. Erik Foley playing 3LW this year replacing MP. That is going to = a step back for this year. Not a huge one though if we acknowledge Perreault's shortcomings. Foley is well suited to a 3rd line role. We need to move that cap hit anyway. 2) Joe Veleno drafted with the 1st we lost. He has a good chance of being that 2C we need in 2-3 years. Sooner would be better but you can't have everything.

That is a lot of positives in exchange for a move that, while it did work well, didn't achieve the desired goal.

Not having made that short term move would give a pretty large long term boost to the chances of winning a cup in one of the next 5-10 years. Maybe more than once.

 

[Whileee]

Trouba scores well at ES due to housing his physical gifts to jump up in the play either as a puck rusher or without it. He also volume shooter which helps.

What he doesn't show a lot of is patience with the puck on the point and he doesn't read the play and move the puck fluidly enough on the point to really be elite on the PP. He more often then not just wants to put his head down and fire the puck.

Still, would almost certainly bag an extra 10-15 points if he got substantial PP time, which would put him into the 45-50 point range.