Confirmed with Link: What to do with Trouba? (UPD: 1y/5.5m arb award)

[Mortimer Snerd]

Aside from the fact that the jets haven't hit on a 2nd rounder yet in 7 years even if we got 2 2nds for Perreault how does that help us next 2 years with his 40 points gone. 1 of trouba or myers has to go. Especially with poolman there as a 3rd pairing guy. Perrault is needed and should not be traded for draft picks.

Cap constraints say we only keep Perreault for 1 more year anyway. Myers also has to leave. The only alternative to moving those 2 is to move 1 more expensive player. If that is Trouba then a lot of other possibilities open up.

Perreault turns 31 next season. His style of play and his body suggest he won't have a long career. His decline may have already started. He may not earn his contract next year and then he becomes hard to move, much less getting a good return.

If you can consider Poolman as adequate to make 1 of Trouba, Myers expendable then certainly 1 of Lemieux, Petan, Dano, Vesalainen make Perreault expendable. Any of them is likely better at 3LW than Poolman is at 3RD.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To me - this is the most logical argument as to why Myers should go. I still think Trouba is the one who is going. I don't buy all this nicey nicey bulll****. He wants to play in a US major market city. I think the smartest play for the Jets (if this is really the case) is to trade him now while we still have valuable club owned years.

If I am wrong, and Trouba re-signs - then have at er - trade Myers. I just don't think it's a no brainer, and I don't really get the hate for Tyler around here.

Lots of people suggesting trading Myers but I don't recall having seen anything remotely close to hate. It is just simple arithmetic. Myers (and Perreault) is the odd man out. Add up high market value (presumed), injury history, D zone weakness, and cap hit. Throw in cap crunch. He has to go - unless you are right about Trouba, in which case Trouba has to go, IMO.

Frenchie is probably my favourite Jet. I had hoped to keep him one more year. But the more I think about it, the more I am convinced that he should be moved before the draft. Regardless of the Trouba situation.

 

[Jet]

Lots of people suggesting trading Myers but I don't recall having seen anything remotely close to hate. It is just simple arithmetic. Myers (and Perreault) is the odd man out. Add up high market value (presumed), injury history, D zone weakness, and cap hit. Throw in cap crunch. He has to go - unless you are right about Trouba, in which case Trouba has to go, IMO.

Frenchie is probably my favourite Jet. I had hoped to keep him one more year. But the more I think about it, the more I am convinced that he should be moved before the draft. Regardless of the Trouba situation.

Theres plenty of hate for Tyler. I feel like often if a player isn't perfect we just rag on him, happens to a lot of guys. I do understand that contract value plays into that (rightfully so).

 

[ffh]

You don't think Roslovic can fill that gap?

Jets are in a win now mode for a few years to say the least. Trading a proven player for draft picks isn't smart and won't happen. He is still a good player can replace injured top 6 players for sure and is a 3rd line guy. Roslovic I don't think can score as much as Perreault yet but that's not the point. We need to adding to roslovic and Perreault on that line not replacing 1 with the other. It's obvious to me at least everybody else on this team that played on the bottom 6 has no business playing with these 2 guys next year on the same line. Everyone else is a glorified 4th liner. As long as we can afford him he should stay.

 

[Flair Hay]

Theres plenty of hate for Tyler. I feel like often if a player isn't perfect we just rag on him, happens to a lot of guys. I do understand that contract value plays into that (rightfully so).

Let's call it what it is, he has a shit dorsi compared to the other two RD.

The pendulum has swung far enough that people on HF and Twitter care less about high profile mistakes and more about the differences in long term percentages.

Our best 3 D are all pretty gaffe prone and Myers has the weakest long term percentages so I get why hes valued least.

Trouba, Buff and Myers all excelled in their roles last year in part because of each other. They lessen the load on each other which makes them all better.

If we didnt have so many wingers I wouldn't want to trade Perreault before Myers. But we do. Including a stud in Vesalainen who plays LW and will probably command PP time within a year max.

What's a bigger luxury, top 4 D on 3rd pair or top six wing playing 4th line? Quite open to interpretation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Theres plenty of hate for Tyler. I feel like often if a player isn't perfect we just rag on him, happens to a lot of guys. I do understand that contract value plays into that (rightfully so).

Myers has flaws. I've seen those flaws pointed out repeatedly. I don't see how you can use the hate word for honest evaluation that usually also gives credit where due. He is good offensively. He is good defending the rush, using his reach. He gets rattled under pressure in his own end. Better opposition makes him look bad.

Every player has strengths and weaknesses. Myers is good at 3-4 mil as a #4 D. He is great as a #5-6 D but is paid too much for that, even at 3-4 mil. His next contract is likely 5 mil. I don't hate him at all. I like him. But I see his flaws. Then I look at the Jets pending cap. I would love to keep Myers for 2 mil/yr but that isn't happening.

OTOH, if we traded Trouba I would keep Myers for next year and probably make him an offer of a new contract after that. Maybe not an offer he would accept but that is FA for you.

 

[potroaster]

Whatever number you use it doesn't mean much without a term attached. I wouldn't do 5.5 for 1 or 2 years but I would go more than that for 8. I think 5.5x5 years sounds about right.

I think 5.5x5 years would be a slam dunk. This is the perfect contract. But Trouba thinks he's a 7 mil guy.

 

[ps241]

Theres plenty of hate for Tyler. I feel like often if a player isn't perfect we just rag on him, happens to a lot of guys. I do understand that contract value plays into that (rightfully so).

On these boards I think Scheifele and Morrissey are the only guys above the frey currently. Everyone else takes heat from some faction and some players take a relentless pounding. I look at Myers in that mid ground.

Right now TM and Matty P are getting way more attention due to their normal allocation of heat but also the cap focused scrutiny. If we had the cap luxury of last season I would kill to roll the same line up again. As we are forced to make choices they are players that may need to take the fall but who really knows how this will play out?

 

[KingBogo]

Myers has flaws. I've seen those flaws pointed out repeatedly. I don't see how you can use the hate word for honest evaluation that usually also gives credit where due. He is good offensively. He is good defending the rush, using his reach. He gets rattled under pressure in his own end. Better opposition makes him look bad.

Every player has strengths and weaknesses. Myers is good at 3-4 mil as a #4 D. He is great as a #5-6 D but is paid too much for that, even at 3-4 mil. His next contract is likely 5 mil. I don't hate him at all. I like him. But I see his flaws. Then I look at the Jets pending cap. I would love to keep Myers for 2 mil/yr but that isn't happening.

OTOH, if we traded Trouba I would keep Myers for next year and probably make him an offer of a new contract after that. Maybe not an offer he would accept but that is FA for you.

I still don't think we move Myers. True he has a bit of a high cap hit for his current role, but we have suffered way too many injuries on the back end over the last couple season's not to go into the season with a cushion. IMO Chevy treats Myers as his own rental and then tries to sign him for what he can afford under the cap. Myers had an odd contract under old CBA rules where he had a $10 M signing bonus than a much lower contract in the later years than his cap hit would suggest. His actual take home pay has only averaged $4.07 M over the last 7 years. Maybe he sees himself as being in the right place at the right time early in his career for a financial windfall, and will now trade that off for the security and fit in an organization that has treated him and his family very well. Would you be willing to re-sign Myers at a $4 M AAV?

I'm just a little fearful of tossing away a season at the front end of our competing window because we threw away our defensive depth for a draft pick that would at best be 3-4 years away from cracking the roster. Without Myers a long term injury to Trouba or Buff has Poolman in the 2nd pair, with someone like Morrow on his off side on the 3rd pair playing with Chiarot. With Toby gone and a huge question mark with Kulikov's health, we could get real thin real quick.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think 5.5x5 years would be a slam dunk. This is the perfect contract. But Trouba thinks he's a 7 mil guy.

Well, maybe he is a 7 mil guy - if he signs for the full 8 years. But he is still a 5.5-6 guy for 4-5 years. The term makes a difference.

Personally, I think 7 is still a little high but not out of sight. I'd be happier with 6.5-6.75 for 7-8 years but we are getting very close to that 7 at that point.

If Chevy could get him under 6 for longer than 5 years it would be another feather in his cap.

 

[Whileee]

Well, maybe he is a 7 mil guy - if he signs for the full 8 years. But he is still a 5.5-6 guy for 4-5 years. The term makes a difference.

Personally, I think 7 is still a little high but not out of sight. I'd be happier with 6.5-6.75 for 7-8 years but we are getting very close to that 7 at that point.

If Chevy could get him under 6 for longer than 5 years it would be another feather in his cap.

I'd give Trouba $7M on a 7 or 8 year deal without blinking.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still don't think we move Myers. True he has a bit of a high cap hit for his current role, but we have suffered way too many injuries on the back end over the last couple season's not to go into the season with a cushion. IMO Chevy treats Myers as his own rental and then tries to sign him for what he can afford under the cap. Myers had an odd contract under old CBA rules where he had a $10 M signing bonus than a much lower contract in the later years than his cap hit would suggest. His actual take home pay has only averaged $4.07 M over the last 7 years. Maybe he sees himself as being in the right place at the right time early in his career for a financial windfall, and will now trade that off for the security and fit in an organization that has treated him and his family very well. Would you be willing to re-sign Myers at a $4 M AAV?

I'm just a little fearful of tossing away a season at the front end of our competing window because we threw away our defensive depth for a draft pick that would at best be 3-4 years away from cracking the roster. Without Myers a long term injury to Trouba or Buff has Poolman in the 2nd pair, with someone like Morrow on his off side on the 3rd pair playing with Chiarot. With Toby gone and a huge question mark with Kulikov's health, we could get real thin real quick.

I wouldn't argue that it doesn't happen your way - except the "sign him for what he can afford under the cap" part. There is no number that is even remotely possible.

I don't think he is a 4mil player, maybe close though. But we can't even come close to affording him at 4 mil. The most we could afford is about 1.5 and that would be an insult to him.

I get your point about depth for injuries but how deeply can you practically cover yourself for every risk? Myers is only here for 1 more year at the most. There is no reasonably likely scenario that sees him here any longer than that.

Rentals shorten the window. That applies to 'own rentals' exactly as much as it does to TD pickups. The goal should be to keep the window open as long as possible. I'm convinced that that is the best way to win a cup. Keep giving yourself a shot at it. Don't take short term steps to try and increase your chance in just 1 year.

It isn't throwing away our depth for a draft pick. It is recognizing that Myers has to go and getting something rather than nothing. We can't keep everybody. The cap dictates that some must go. Failure to recognize that and respond in a timely fashion will slam shut the window very quickly.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd give Trouba $7M on a 7 or 8 year deal without blinking.

That might seem a little steep for the first year or two but probably looks like a bargain by the 3rd year.

I think it was a bad signing but EK9 just got 7x7. We have to recognize where the market is right now.

 

[Heldig]

Well, on the main board it was stated he might not be worth the 12th overall pick this year.

 

[buggs]

Well, on the main board it was stated he might not be worth the 12th overall pick this year.

I kind of had a good chuckle over that one. Fair enough that Trouba isn't a Norris candidate atm but he's a top pairing guy on the more desirable side (right) who has proven his ability to actually play in the league. Whoever goes at #12 has lots of potential and proven exactly nothing at the NHL level. Must be draft season when picks are worth gold, even if they're not top ten.

 

[KingBogo]

I wouldn't argue that it doesn't happen your way - except the "sign him for what he can afford under the cap" part. There is no number that is even remotely possible.

I don't think he is a 4mil player, maybe close though. But we can't even come close to affording him at 4 mil. The most we could afford is about 1.5 and that would be an insult to him.

I get your point about depth for injuries but how deeply can you practically cover yourself for every risk? Myers is only here for 1 more year at the most. There is no reasonably likely scenario that sees him here any longer than that.

Rentals shorten the window. That applies to 'own rentals' exactly as much as it does to TD pickups. The goal should be to keep the window open as long as possible. I'm convinced that that is the best way to win a cup. Keep giving yourself a shot at it. Don't take short term steps to try and increase your chance in just 1 year.

It isn't throwing away our depth for a draft pick. It is recognizing that Myers has to go and getting something rather than nothing. We can't keep everybody. The cap dictates that some must go. Failure to recognize that and respond in a timely fashion will slam shut the window very quickly.

I just don't see it that way. Myers gives us a better shot at the cup this season and every season in your contending window is important. At this time of year maybe you get a late 1st or early 2nd for Myers and that player pans out 3-5 years from now and becomes a contributing member of the team. On average you have a middle of the line up player that is fairly replaceable, but in the meantime Buff, Wheeler and Little are all unlikely to be more than supporting pieces if they are around at all, so a whole bunch of other things need to happen to replace other pieces. IMO moving Myers for a pick only makes sense if it is a high 1st that has a strong likelihood of being a member of the young core. If not IMO you are better off keeping a 28 y/o 3-5 defenseman and see if you are able to re-sign him.

 

[MardyBum]

I just don't see it that way. Myers gives us a better shot at the cup this season and every season in your contending window is important. At this time of year maybe you get a late 1st or early 2nd for Myers and that player pans out 3-5 years from now and becomes a contributing member of the team. On average you have a middle of the line up player that is fairly replaceable, but in the meantime Buff, Wheeler and Little are all unlikely to be more than supporting pieces if they are around at all, so a whole bunch of other things need to happen to replace other pieces. IMO moving Myers for a pick only makes sense if it is a high 1st that has a strong likelihood of being a member of the young core. If not IMO you are better off keeping a 28 y/o 3-5 defenseman and see if you are able to re-sign him.

I mean, in retrospect, should the Leafs have gotten a first++ for JVR and Bozak?

They kept them as rentals and got bounced in the first round, and are now losing them for nothing. This isn't Buff or Trouba we're talking about, he's a third pair D on this team. On other teams he'd be a top 4 D, and will command a 1st rounder easily. He's not going to make or break our year.

With our record of first round picks, I'm making that deal. Most of our core is 1st rounders. Stanley is the only one you could argue was a miss out of . . . 9 first round picks so far.

And there's likely zero chance we can afford Myers. He may like it here but he's not going to play for free.

 

[KingBogo]

I mean, in retrospect, should the Leafs have gotten a first++ for JVR and Bozak?

They kept them as rentals and got bounced in the first round, and are now losing them for nothing. This isn't Buff or Trouba we're talking about, he's a third pair D on this team. On other teams he'd be a top 4 D, and will command a 1st rounder easily. He's not going to make or break our year.

With our record of first round picks, I'm making that deal. Most of our core is 1st rounders. Stanley is the only one you could argue was a miss out of . . . 9 first round picks so far.

And there's likely zero chance we can afford Myers. He may like it here but he's not going to play for free.

I think you over estimate Myers value in realizing a top pick at this time of year. The week of the entry draft, picks cost retail++. Like doing your weekly grocery shopping in the lobby of a 5 star hotel. You are not getting a 1st++. Then come next March and we are down a couple D and playing AHL guys we will be forced to dig even deeper at the TD and pay retail+ in a pick and a prospect when they have their least value to pick up a worse defenseman. I just don't believe in ridding yourself of NHL defenseman. They are far too valuable a commodity.

 

[MardyBum]

I think you over estimate Myers value in realizing a top pick at this time of year. The week of the entry draft, picks cost retail++. Like doing your weekly grocery shopping in the lobby of a 5 star hotel. You are not getting a 1st++. Then come next March and we are down a couple D and playing AHL guys we will be forced to dig even deeper at the TD and pay retail+ in a pick and a prospect when they have their least value to pick up a worse defenseman. I just don't believe in ridding yourself of NHL defenseman. They are far too valuable a commodity.

Oh I doubt he'll get a 2018 1st, this time of the year draft picks are more important than improving your team. I think he'll be moved in the offseason once the Trouba situation is figured out, or re-signed if we have to trade Trouba.

A 1st rounder who has years of team control vs 1 year of a third pairing dman.

 

[KingBogo]

Oh I doubt he'll get a 2018 1st, this time of the year draft picks are more important than improving your team. I think he'll be moved in the offseason once the Trouba situation is figured out, or re-signed if we have to trade Trouba.

A 1st rounder who has years of team control vs 1 year of a third pairing dman.

This makes much more sense with the likelihood of a much better return, but I'm still doubtful they move Myers even if the re-sign Trouba.

 

[Whileee]

If the Jets move Myers, I hope it's to get a 2/3 C. That's their biggest need in the next couple of seasons.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just don't see it that way. Myers gives us a better shot at the cup this season and every season in your contending window is important. At this time of year maybe you get a late 1st or early 2nd for Myers and that player pans out 3-5 years from now and becomes a contributing member of the team. On average you have a middle of the line up player that is fairly replaceable, but in the meantime Buff, Wheeler and Little are all unlikely to be more than supporting pieces if they are around at all, so a whole bunch of other things need to happen to replace other pieces. IMO moving Myers for a pick only makes sense if it is a high 1st that has a strong likelihood of being a member of the young core. If not IMO you are better off keeping a 28 y/o 3-5 defenseman and see if you are able to re-sign him.

The thing is that there is no "see if you are able to re-sign him". That is simply out of the question unless you trade Trouba or Buff or one of the top paid forwards not named Perreault (Perreault has to go too). That's why this is so clearly cut and dried to me. He can't be any more than a rental because he is not going to sign for under 1.5 million. Rentals shorten the window.

Stastny was a 'good' rental at a 'good' price. Did we win the cup? No. Did acquiring him weaken us in the future? Yes.

 

[PhilJets]

Sign him

Jets can afford to skip 1 first rounder this year.

 

[KingBogo]

The thing is that there is no "see if you are able to re-sign him". That is simply out of the question unless you trade Trouba or Buff or one of the top paid forwards not named Perreault (Perreault has to go too). That's why this is so clearly cut and dried to me. He can't be any more than a rental because he is not going to sign for under 1.5 million. Rentals shorten the window.

Stastny was a 'good' rental at a 'good' price. Did we win the cup? No. Did acquiring him weaken us in the future? Yes.

Enjoying the discussion Mort. But IMO at least nothing is cut and dried at this point as there are countless unknowns to all us posters. Everyone of our defenseman has a question mark by their name.

Trouba: Does he really want out or is he willing to stay, but at what cost? If we have to move him can we get a comparable defenseman in return?
Morrissey: Is he signed long term or bridged to free up cap room?
Buff: Does he hit that drop off cliff at some point and do you try and maximize a return on him before he does?
Kulivov: Does his back ever recover or is he a LTIR candidate for the final 2 years of his contract?
Morrow: Do we resign him, and if we do is he the steady bottom pairing guy we need?
Chairot: too many question marks to even go through.
Poolman: Still a work in progress and uncertain how far he can develop.
Niku: Tremendous potential, but still very raw and uncertain how quickly he develops.

Myers has his own question marks but he is currently our 4th best defenseman and more years than not we have been rocked with injuries on our back end. I just think Chevy keeps him this season because he gives a better chance to win, and tries to find cap room next year. Jets aren't so deep at defense that you get rid of solid NHLers unless you are absolutely forced to, and I don't think we are anywhere near that point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Enjoying the discussion Mort. But IMO at least nothing is cut and dried at this point as there are countless unknowns to all us posters. Everyone of our defenseman has a question mark by their name.

Trouba: Does he really want out or is he willing to stay, but at what cost? If we have to move him can we get a comparable defenseman in return?
Morrissey: Is he signed long term or bridged to free up cap room?
Buff: Does he hit that drop off cliff at some point and do you try and maximize a return on him before he does?
Kulivov: Does his back ever recover or is he a LTIR candidate for the final 2 years of his contract?
Morrow: Do we resign him, and if we do is he the steady bottom pairing guy we need?
Chairot: too many question marks to even go through.
Poolman: Still a work in progress and uncertain how far he can develop.
Niku: Tremendous potential, but still very raw and uncertain how quickly he develops.

Myers has his own question marks but he is currently our 4th best defenseman and more years than not we have been rocked with injuries on our back end. I just think Chevy keeps him this season because he gives a better chance to win, and tries to find cap room next year. Jets aren't so deep at defense that you get rid of solid NHLers unless you are absolutely forced to, and I don't think we are anywhere near that point.

There are many things that could happen. I said it is cut and dried unless "you trade Trouba or Buff or one of the top paid forwards".

I also said I wouldn't argue against the liklihood Chevy doing as you say. I think you are more than likely correct. Chevy keeps him as an 'own rental'. I don't think there is any 'trying to find room for him next year' though because it isn't even close. I mean not even remotely close. Except in the case of moving someone a lot more important to the Jets than Myers is, as listed above.

I suppose it is conceivable that Buff is moved after next year. I see that as extremely unlikely. But it is not completely out of the question. There had been talk here of moving him after this season, when his NTC opens up. The season he just had quieted that talk. Maybe we get a good offer after next season and decide to take it before Buff 'falls off the cliff'. Not likely, but could happen. I think Buff finishes his career with the Jets.

The fact is that we need to move out substantial cap for the '20 season. If not Myers (and Perreault) then it will have to be someone else. The only somewhat high % chance of that is Trouba.

Kulikov may be the one thing that could change my opinion. Jets know his medical report. We don't. If his future looks too shaky I would hang on to Myers. In the absence of information beyond him coming back in for that last game, I am assuming he is OK. Kulikov would need to put together a strong season with no recurrence of his back problems to become a possible trade piece. Highly unlikely, IMO that he can be moved before his contract expires, but if he could then there might be room for Myers for 1 more year - maybe.

So - what is cut and dried is that we can't keep everybody. If Myers stays, who goes? It has to be someone.

I also think it is cut and dried that rentals are a bad strategy, including own rentals. But that is purely my opinion. I will maintain that till I die - I'm absolutely convinced of it. But it is still opinion.