What to do with Nikita Zaitsev....

[Zybalto]

Zaitsev objectively sucks, not subjectively sucks.

If objectively means what I think it means, stats and results oriented info says hes been good this year. Is that objective?

 

[Pi]

Nikita Zaitsev got a big fat contract because of Mike Babcock and his stupid reason to not play Rielly on the PP that year.

What happened? A rookie who sucked on ES compiled a lot of PP points and played a premium position and got a 7 year deal based on PP points.

Thank you to Lou and Babcock.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Strange argument against one of the best players in the league this year on the ice ahead with under 2:30 left in the third.

This is a stat that makes me hate stats lol
Either way, shouldn't be such a weak d corps that our pairing to end games is hainsey-zaitsev.
Also would love to see
Rielly-Derms
Muzzin-Z
Gardiner-Hainsey

That or put Gardiner-Dermott together and give them more ice time.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

If objectively means what I think it means, stats and results oriented info says hes been good this year. Is that objective?

Just curious to know which stats these are? I'm a zaitsev hater and would love to have some positives about him. He's a good PKer but I've seen nothing 5v5 that makes me like him. Objectively and Subjectively.

 

[Mess]

Been our best pairing since they were put together but I would prefer Rielly/Muzzin who were just dynamite. I still think that Gards injury was what forced the change.

I think the plan was to bring in Gardiner's replacement when he walks as a UFA after this season, so that next year Leafs LHD will be Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott.

Zaitsev is really on the only NHL caliber RHD on the roster at present. Oz/Holl are more depth/spare guys.

 

[DanM]

All I know is we will be better over the next few years, and Z, Connor, Marleau, and co. will not be here, and players will continue to be drafted and moved up from the Marlies (plus some free wallets)

Our best contending years are ahead of us, especially as Babcock get's his fav toys taken away, if Babs is still here of course. I still wonder if he is the right coach for this team.

Z will be so damn hard to move, it will take some very creative work from Dubas, but I also believe some team out there will think they can help him play better, his contract is long, but not that expensive tbh.

 

[TheScandal89]

Strange argument against one of the best players in the league this year on the ice ahead with under 2:30 left in the third.

You can trust regular season analytics all you want, but when it comes to the Bruins in the playoffs, I don't trust him in the situation we've been burned a lot. I'd love to be wrong in this regard though

 

[Zybalto]

Just curious to know which stats these are? I'm a zaitsev hater and would love to have some positives about him. He's a good PKer but I've seen nothing 5v5 that makes me like him. Objectively and Subjectively.

The first thing you have to take into account with Zaitsev is his quality of competition and his deployment. Its not like the Leafs just started running their top 4 hard, they are actually one of the teams that have done it the most of the year. Rielly/Hainsey face some of the toughest QoC of all top pairings and Gards/Ziatsev were the same thing as a second pairing. This left Dermott and whoever to feast on other teams bottom lines but it also gave the mistaken impression that Dermott is better than he actually is (not crapping on Dermott but hes just not a top 4 on this team quite yet....probably next year though.) The Leafs third pairing is one of the most sheltered pairings in the game by design as Babs is a big match up coach.

But not only has Zaitsev actually facing competition at a high end 2nd pairing , he's also deployed far more defensively than any players on the Leafs. This has accelerated after the recent injuries as well. He's in the top 10 for defensive deployments league wide for top 4 defenders.

So right off the bat you have a #4 defender who is both at the top of the list for tough QoC and tough zone starts when compared to his peers.

Quick examples:

Last night he played 19:22 5v5 minutes, 7:22 against Eichel line and 6:07 against the Reinhart line. completely shut down the opposition and scoring chances were 14-2 Leafs. He lead all players in expected goal %.
Against Nashville he played 15:16 5v5 minutes, 7+ of them against the Forsberg/Johansson duo and completely shut them down as scoring chances were 9-2 Leafs. He, again, led all players on both team in practically all analytics and did this despite having the lowest zone starts of any dman.
Even the the game against Ottawa he manged to have an even scoring chance differential in a game where the forwards were horrible in front of him and despite an amazing 0% offensive zone faceoffs.

Kind of odd this thread popped up when he's playing some elite defensive hockey...

But anyways, back to it.

So, despite all that tough defensive usage, his analytics are good no matter how you look at them.

Looking at the top 4 players around the league, here are Zaitsevs analytic comparables (Oct. 17th-present. I use this date when discussing Zaitsev and Gards as I want an accurate reflection of what both bring to the table and not no legs 40% corsi Gards affecting things after missing camp having a baby):



SF%: 48.02 - people like to go after him for this for some reason despite his usage and its better than Riellys so what the heck? I know he allows zone entries and all but if it just ends up with a weak shot and then going the other way, sounds good to me.
GF% 48.69 - Would like to see it higher but not really surprised. He's not exactly an offensive dynamo.
CF%: 50.54 - Into the top half of the dman list just ahead of three guys named Ekblad, OEL and Trouba. (Not saying he is them, just saying)
SCF%: 53.14 - Not up there with the Giordanos or Suters of the world but the list goes in order Burns, Zaitsev, Pietrangelo, Mcdonaugh, Hedman.....(again, not saying hes those guys, just where his scoring differential is on the list.)
HDCF%: 55.06 - Getting near the top of the league here. Again around Burns, McDonaugh, Pietro, Slavin.

PDO: 1.002 - One of the most stable PDOs in the league meaning he is who he is. No luck involved either way.

Now Zaitsev obviously isnt in the same league as those other guys but the fact his analytics are that high in scoring chance differential shows he must be doing something right....that something is preventing scoring chances better than anyone on the team. Offense is certainly more valuable though and there is where an argument can be made for how much hes actually worth.

He's not going to be the two way guy some thought but he is one of the better defensive 4s in the league....and isnt that what we were looking for all along?

Like I said earlier, I ran the comparable to the best of my ability and Zaitsev has a pretty strong analytical and statistical comparable this year.

Guess who?

 

[Zybalto]

You can trust regular season analytics all you want, but when it comes to the Bruins in the playoffs, I don't trust him in the situation we've been burned a lot. I'd love to be wrong in this regard though

He was good against the Bruins last year.....really good.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

The first thing you have to take into account with Zaitsev is his quality of competition and his deployment. Its not like the Leafs just started running their top 4 hard, they are actually one of the teams that have done it the most of the year. Rielly/Hainsey face some of the toughest QoC of all top pairings and Gards/Ziatsev were the same thing as a second pairing. This left Dermott and whoever to feast on other teams bottom lines but it also gave the mistaken impression that Dermott is better than he actually is (not crapping on Dermott but hes just not a top 4 on this team quite yet....probably next year though.) The Leafs third pairing is one of the most sheltered pairings in the game by design as Babs is a big match up coach.

But not only has Zaitsev actually facing competition at a high end 2nd pairing , he's also deployed far more defensively than any players on the Leafs. This has accelerated after the recent injuries as well. He's in the top 10 for defensive deployments league wide for top 4 defenders.

So right off the bat you have a #4 defender who is both at the top of the list for tough QoC and tough zone starts when compared to his peers.

Quick examples:

Last night he played 19:22 5v5 minutes, 7:22 against Eichel line and 6:07 against the Reinhart line. completely shut down the opposition and scoring chances were 14-2 Leafs. He lead all players in expected goal %.
Against Nashville he played 15:16 5v5 minutes, 7+ of them against the Forsberg/Johansson duo and completely shut them down as scoring chances were 9-2 Leafs. He, again, led all players on both team in practically all analytics and did this despite having the lowest zone starts of any dman.
Even the the game against Ottawa he manged to have an even scoring chance differential in a game where the forwards were horrible in front of him and despite an amazing 0% offensive zone faceoffs.

Kind of odd this thread popped up when he's playing some elite defensive hockey...

But anyways, back to it.

So, despite all that tough defensive usage, his analytics are good no matter how you look at them.

Looking at the top 4 players around the league, here are Zaitsevs analytic comparables (Oct. 17th-present. I use this date when discussing Zaitsev and Gards as I want an accurate reflection of what both bring to the table and not no legs 40% corsi Gards affecting things after missing camp having a baby):



SF%: 48.02 - people like to go after him for this for some reason despite his usage and its better than Riellys so what the heck? I know he allows zone entries and all but if it just ends up with a weak shot and then going the other way, sounds good to me.
GF% 48.69 - Would like to see it higher but not really surprised. He's not exactly an offensive dynamo.
CF%: 50.54 - Into the top half of the dman list just ahead of three guys named Ekblad, OEL and Trouba. (Not saying he is them, just saying)
SCF%: 53.14 - Not up there with the Giordanos or Suters of the world but the list goes in order Burns, Zaitsev, Pietrangelo, Mcdonaugh, Hedman.....(again, not saying hes those guys, just where his scoring differential is on the list.)
HDCF%: 55.06 - Getting near the top of the league here. Again around Burns, McDonaugh, Pietro, Slavin.

PDO: 1.002 - One of the most stable PDOs in the league meaning he is who he is. No luck involved either way.

Now Zaitsev obviously isnt in the same league as those other guys but the fact his analytics are that high in scoring chance differential shows he must be doing something right....that something is preventing scoring chances better than anyone on the team. Offense is certainly more valuable though and there is where an argument can be made for how much hes actually worth.

He's not going to be the two way guy some thought but he is one of the better defensive 4s in the league....and isnt that what we were looking for all along?

Like I said earlier, I ran the comparable to the best of my ability and Zaitsev has a pretty strong analytical and statistical comparable this year.

Guess who?

Zaitsev has to be the only person I've seen people go to such lengths to defend and hate on. Gardiner fans don't do this.

Anywho, 2 of the best defensemen in the whole league when it comes to advanced metrics, especially LHD, are Gardiner and Muzzin who yes do help drag Zaitsev's stats to average. That's not my issue with him though. My issue with him resides in the fact that he produces next to no offense which is inexcusable for any NHL player let alone one making that much money. My other problem is he's the actual version of what Leafs fans exaggerate Gardiner's turnovers to be. I've never seen a Dman throw the puck in front of his net as many times as Z and it's slowly killing my heart. Dude plays an insane QoC and I'm aware but even when that's been reduced he hasn't looked like he excels at much of anything. Great PKer though can't deny that. Also at least he tries to move people from out front.

 

[Zybalto]

Zaitsev has to be the only person I've seen people go to such lengths to defend and hate on. Gardiner fans don't do this.

Anywho, 2 of the best defensemen in the whole league when it comes to advanced metrics, especially LHD, are Gardiner and Muzzin who yes do help drag Zaitsev's stats to average. That's not my issue with him though. My issue with him resides in the fact that he produces next to no offense which is inexcusable for any NHL player let alone one making that much money. My other problem is he's the actual version of what Leafs fans exaggerate Gardiner's turnovers to be. I've never seen a Dman throw the puck in front of his net as many times as Z and it's slowly killing my heart. Dude plays an insane QoC and I'm aware but even when that's been reduced he hasn't looked like he excels at much of anything. Great PKer though can't deny that. Also at least he tries to move people from out front.

Hey, everyone needs a hobby.

So no guesses on who his comparable is. Kinds pissed no one is biting on this after I did the work on a day off

 

[mashedpotato]

We play him until we can trade him.

Simple as that isn't it?

 

[tmlms13]

I keep hearing this and am never given any examples. I wonder why?

Example of what?

There are defenseman that make 1m who are of equal skill as zaitsev but zaitsev make over 4m. That is the problem.

If the Leafs had that extra 3m available. They could use it for other players... they'll likely lose Gardiner due to the cap. Having that 3m might be the difference in keeping and losing him.

Despite the hate he gets Gardiner is a very valuable and important part of this team

 

[Zybalto]

Example of what?

There are defenseman that make 1m who are of equal skill as zaitsev but zaitsev make over 4m. That is the problem.

If the Leafs had that extra 3m available. They could use it for other players... they'll likely lose Gardiner due to the cap. Having that 3m might be the difference in keeping and losing him.

Despite the hate he gets Gardiner is a very valuable and important part of this team

Who are the equal examples of Zaitsev?

 

[Polaris1010]

Who are the equal examples of Zaitsev?

Not to comment on your discussion so far, which kind of lengthy and exhausting . . . heh . . .

Another way of looking at this, is that the Maple Leafs are a hockey team in the NHL, and teams in the NHL tend to have their starts and their role players.

Zaitsev as a role player, is very good.

He is not a star, but he is good at what he does.

If we look at the standings and goals allowed, that is rather good, and Zaitsev has been here all that time, playing his role. In fact, give him more to do like the power play time in his rookie year, he would do even better. Leafs do not have to do that because they got Reilly and Gardiner.

Every game, he is on the ice for 1 or 2 goals at most, or often zero goals against. He makes plays in the defensive zone, and that is what this team needs because the forwards half them do not know how to break up the play.

People who complain about Zaitsev do not understand the NHL and what players are suppose to do.

 

[tmlms13]

Who are the equal examples of Zaitsev?

if you look at a list of defenseman making his salary range and rank them he would

Here is a list of the RHD making between 3.5 and 4.5 tell me where zaitsev ranks. How many of those players would the opposing team trade straight up for zaitsev?

Probably 0.

Stralman
Demers
Zaitsev
Tanev
Cici
Klingberg
Savard
Severson
Larsson
Manson
Pesce
Gudbranson
miller
Hamonic
Murphy
braun
Stone

I have nothing against zaitsev as a player, he is what he is. it is all about his contract. He is paid too much for what he is.

 

[Dough72]

Nikita Zaitsev got a big fat contract because of Mike Babcock and his stupid reason to not play Rielly on the PP that year.

What happened? A rookie who sucked on ES compiled a lot of PP points and played a premium position and got a 7 year deal based on PP points.

Thank you to Lou and Babcock.

he didn't suck at even strength he had 20 assists. Reilly had 17 and Gardiner led the team with 23. That's pretty good for a rookie espeially still learning the angles on larger rinks so I wouldn't say it was just the power-play that got him a contract. The team decided to take a gamble for a longterm bargain and it didn't pay off because he regressed probably thanks to an unlucky concussion. Win some lose some. The same type of gamble paid off huge getting us Freddy Andersen.

 

[Zybalto]

if you look at a list of defenseman making his salary range and rank them he would

Here is a list of the RHD making between 3.5 and 4.5 tell me where zaitsev ranks. How many of those players would the opposing team trade straight up for zaitsev?

Probably 0.

Stralman
Demers
Zaitsev
Tanev
Cici
Klingberg
Savard
Severson
Larsson
Manson
Pesce
Gudbranson
miller
Hamonic
Murphy
braun
Stone

I have nothing against zaitsev as a player, he is what he is. it is all about his contract. He is paid too much for what he is.

An interesting list as it really does highlight the scarcity of RHD around the league at this level and why Zaitsev has been paid the way he has.

Not addressing term or contract and just value to the team this year, Zaitsev has outperformed many on that list this year and there are injuries, some players there are on the decline and there are obviously more valuable players there, some on really good contracts. It would take a ton of work to rank those guys but Zaitsevs value to his team this year is probably around the middle of that list, in there with the Brauns, Pesces and similar type role players that teams need to be successful.

 

[tmlms13]

An interesting list as it really does highlight the scarcity of RHD around the league at this level and why Zaitsev has been paid the way he has.

Not addressing term or contract and just value to the team this year, Zaitsev has outperformed many on that list this year and there are injuries, some players there are on the decline and there are obviously more valuable players there, some on really good contracts. It would take a ton of work to rank those guys but Zaitsevs value to his team this year is probably around the middle of that list, in there with the Brauns, Pesces and similar type role players that teams need to be successful.

We've established contract cap hit values are roughly the same.... Just count how many of opposing GMs would accept a trade 1 for 1... on ice factors only. There are only a few I would keep Zaitsev. Then take that smaller list and look the subtle differences, age vs length vs cap hit. Then rank them again

If Zaitsev is above last place why hasn't Dubas traded for him?

 

[pucci2001]

Send him back to Russia. Kovalchuk style or just send him to the Marlies, make his life hell for a few years til he wants to leave. Its dirty but we need that contract gone and buying him out just saves us 2.xmil when we could save at least 900k sending him down to the Marlies. Its too early to buy out his contract now.