What stocks are you buying now? Part 20

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BreadManPanarin

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Mar 15, 2017
4,599
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In response to @Oneiro:

Batteries: Panasonic, LG, CATL I guess you could say are competitors in some vague sense, but they are actually suppliers. BYD is a competitor in a more general sense, but EVs are in competition with ICE vehicles moreso than with other EVs for the most part. There is a huge addressable market for many EV companies to all have a piece of the pie. Also, no other battery company currently has publicly announced ambitions to be producing 3 TWh of batteries by 2030. Currently that is by far the most ambition plan by a wife margjn, though that’ll change with demand. Most companies wait for demand and then set up production to satisfy it. Tesla is anticipating demand so they can be ready to satisfy it when it comes (similar to their supercharger network).

By AI I assume you mean autonomy, though Tesla is likely to also get into other generalized AI applications long term. Our confidence comes from the standpoint that the competition (Zoox, Mobileye, Waymo, etc) are all using LIDAR which is a great technology, but it is expensive (sure, Wright’s Law will bring it down over time, but cumulative production doublings will be slow) and ugly (not changing any time soon), and it restricts vehicles that are dependent on it to functioning in geofenced areas with constantly up-to-date HD maps. IF IT WORKS, Tesla’s approach of solving passive optical and teaching AI to drive the way humans do (by sight and intuition) is vastly more generalized and useful than lidar based technologies. They have a huge fleet to roll it out to when it does work (whereas the competition will have the huge task of scaling it), and the FSD beta shows some very encouraging early results (watch some FSD beta videos on youtube if you haven’t already). I believe passive optical is a solvable problem and Tesla has the engineering ability to pull it off. They also have the million vehicles on the road constantly gathering real world data, which should be an order of magnitude or two more useful than Applied Intuition’s simulation software. Simulation is great, but the real world is very messy and chaotic, and edge cases are the hardest to simulate and solve. Getting to 99% effective/safe driving isn’t the hard part. The hard part is adding another two, three, or four 9’s in the decimal place, which is where you need to get in order for level 5 autonomy and robotaxis to work. Without experiencing and machine learning through a crazy number of real world edge cases it will be extremely difficult to achieve.

What is Blue Origin doing that is relevant to Tesla? I view them more as a SpaceX competitor, so I’m intrigued on that one.

Ultimately for me it comes down to vision, innovation and manufacturing excellence. (By manufacturing excellence I don’t mean the individual cars. Sure, Tesla has had fit and finish issues and such). What I mean is designing super efficient and capital cost effective factories, designing and building machines in house to build the machines that make the cars. Re-thinking from the wheels up how a car should be built in order to be as safe, cost effective, and high performance as possible. Redesigning batteries to make them more energy dense, faster charging, and cheaper to produce. I just don’t see any other competitor that has demonstrated the ability to do one or two of these core competencies of Tesla efficiently, much less all of them. Elon Musk came right out and said that he doesn’t think Tesa can make all the world’s cars, and that they need competitors to step up. Competition is a good thing, as long as you’re leading the pack.

It also bears mentioning that based on studies Tesla is the #1 most desired place of employment by graduating engineers (SpaceX being #2), and engineering talent is the most valuable resource that there is when you are trying to solve big, hard problems. Also the collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX provides very unique advantages in R&D, materials science, manufacturing technology, etc.

That’s enough for the moment. Sorry for rambling.

Edit: ah, yeah - you mentioned solar too. Honestly, there is so much business available in solar that competition isn’t a huge concern. But it does help that Tesla’s solar panels are now 30% cheaper than the industry average (down below $1.50 per watt). Their constraint at this point seems to be installation manpower, but that’ll work itself out over time as they train and onboard more installation contractors. Also the Tesla Solar Roof will prove to be a fantastic product for customers who want to replace their roof rather than adding tiles to their existing roof. Honestly I am the least knowledgeable/excited about their solar business out of everything they do, though I’ll definitely be a solar roof customer.

In response to @StLHokie:

Energy is a massive opportunity, no doubt. But I think you are downplaying how huge the automotive opportunity is. I think before weighing the likelihood of success or execution risk you just need to look at exactly what they say they will do. If by 2030 they can achieve production and sale of 10-20 million vehicles per year with around 40% gross auto margins, plus a $10-40k FSD software option with a decent take rate, plus a data driven/risk optimized Tesla insurance product with a high take rate, and throw a functioning autonomous ridehailing network on top.... the value associated with all of that is astronomical. We can argue about whether they will achieve it or not, but the path forward is extremely clear and the rewards associated with successful execution are immense.

Edit: I should have mentioned this before but somehow it slipped my mind. Tesla has another huge advantage in access to cheap capital. With a valuation nearing $500B and probably $1T in the not distant future, they have the ability to raise billions of dollars in exchange for trivial amounts of equity. They could do an at the market cap raise of 1% or less tomorrow and build a giga factory or two with the cash. Having access to huge amounts of cheap capital and allocating it correctly in infrastructure and production capacity creates a flywheel effect that keeps adding value to the business, which makes access to even more capital even cheaper, which adds value to the business, which makes capital cheaper, and on and on it goes. This is a massive advantage that Tesla’s competitors mostly do not have access to. Essentially myself and other Tesla investors are saying “we believe that you can do the things you say you can do. Here’s all the money you could possibly need to make it happen.”
 
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Mike8

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Jun 24, 2002
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StarDucks said:
I wouldn’t say the growth rates are comparable. GoodRx growth rate for the first half of 2020 was 48%. TDocs was over 100%

Once again, this is not true.

TDOC's growth rate 1H2020 was 63% year-on-year. GDRX's was 47%.

And you've cherry-picked an arbitrary high growth period for TDOC, bolstered by acquisitions for inorganic growth as the company incurs more debt and is lowering its gross margins.

I'm not even sure why you're putting out these exaggerations (that GDRX is valued higher than TDOC; TDOC's growth rates, etc.) when we seem to be in the same camp (I'm actually invested in both now--though far more in TDOC than GDRX).

In any event, as noted, GDRX is still valued pretty highly but certainly lower than TDOC, has vastly superior gross margins, and has experienced far more organic growth thus far while protecting its gross margins. This says nothing about whether it should be as highly valued as TDOC... but does make it an interesting play on innovation in healthcare, especially as it was beaten down by Amazon threats (unfairly).
 

WingsMJN2965

Registered User
Oct 13, 2017
18,106
17,699
"And then he said, 'Boeing's headed to $120.'"

giphy.gif
 

TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
Feb 18, 2013
4,647
1,781
In April I predicted a stock would go up, all praise lord noir

Listen to my posts of: this stock should or will do this or will no do that
I will be right sometimes, and in the spring I am the one who kept spam posting how there is a stock or several stocks that will appreciate in price
 
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Devilsfan992

Registered User
Apr 14, 2012
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"And then he said, 'Boeing's headed to $120.'"

giphy.gif

Did someone really think it was going to drop to 120?

People love to travel and it won't stop post-pandemic. You may see a decrease in business travel as companies realize they can lower their operating cost, but there will be a high demand for leisure as many will want to vacation again.

Pile on the vaccine news + 737 Max certification and this was an easy buy.

Millions stick to Thanksgiving travel plans despite warnings
Delta hints at the possibility of purchasing Boeing's 737 MAX: FT
Alaska to swap Airbus A320s for Boeing 737 Max
 

JamestheNewbie

Registered User
Nov 24, 2020
1
0
Hey guys, A newbie here never invested or bought stocks but due started to look into it due to the pandemic lol. Any tips or advice would be appreciated from those pros, i started with $5000 in to my TFSA account and looking to invest now.
 

TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
Feb 18, 2013
4,647
1,781
Hey guys, A newbie here never invested or bought stocks but due started to look into it due to the pandemic lol. Any tips or advice would be appreciated from those pros, i started with $5000 in to my TFSA account and looking to invest now.

What is your 5,000 on your TFSA invested in? Cash? Mutual funds? Other?
 

StarDucks

Registered User
Sep 14, 2020
1,998
1,552
Once again, this is not true.

TDOC's growth rate 1H2020 was 63% year-on-year. GDRX's was 47%.

And you've cherry-picked an arbitrary high growth period for TDOC, bolstered by acquisitions for inorganic growth as the company incurs more debt and is lowering its gross margins.

I'm not even sure why you're putting out these exaggerations (that GDRX is valued higher than TDOC; TDOC's growth rates, etc.) when we seem to be in the same camp (I'm actually invested in both now--though far more in TDOC than GDRX).

In any event, as noted, GDRX is still valued pretty highly but certainly lower than TDOC, has vastly superior gross margins, and has experienced far more organic growth thus far while protecting its gross margins. This says nothing about whether it should be as highly valued as TDOC... but does make it an interesting play on innovation in healthcare, especially as it was beaten down by Amazon threats (unfairly).

TDOCS growth rate by quarter YoY this year:

1st quarter: 41%
2nd quarter: 85%
3rd quarter: 120%( I recognize the affects of the acquisition here but the organic growth rate was 90% as per their earnings report)
4th quarter projected at 92% (No longer inorganic)

total projected revenue this year is estimated that at 1.005-1.015B with a 28.12B market cap. Their revenue in 2019 was 553.31m. Over 1b in revenue is slightly shy 100% growth. Why are we only using H1 here? Because of the acquisition? Are we discounting 4th quarter guidance now?

Btw their p/s Ratio (since you are using it) is 27.98 If you use the 4th quarter estimates of 2020

I can’t find GoodRx growth rate by quarter for H1 since they just Ipo’d but for the 1st half they grew at 48%(according to their S1 filing)
3rd quarter: 38% YoY.
4th quarter: estimated 31% YoY growth.

Their estimated revenue for the year is 545m which would represent 40% yoy growth on the year. With a 15.25B market cap. This is Pulled straight From their earnings report.

their p/s ratio is 27.89 if you use their 4th quarter estimates.

I’m not exaggerating anything
 
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pepperMonkey

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Aug 2, 2005
5,252
1,459
Toronto
This guy said NIO will be double from Jan 1st 2021 share price by Dec 31st 2021. I'll buy more on Jan 1st and ride that double.


I don't know...I watched some of his videos and I have always come out the same...a little disappointed. I don't know what it is but it just seems as if he only skimmed the surface and never got into the meat and potatoes of it. Or rather, it just seems he doesn't have a deep understanding of any of the companies he talks about. I'm not saying I do...yet it seems as if I have dove deeper than he has which is absurd since I know I only skimmed the surface of most of the companies I have researched into.
 
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pepperMonkey

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
5,252
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Did someone really think it was going to drop to 120?

People love to travel and it won't stop post-pandemic. You may see a decrease in business travel as companies realize they can lower their operating cost, but there will be a high demand for leisure as many will want to vacation again.

Pile on the vaccine news + 737 Max certification and this was an easy buy.

Millions stick to Thanksgiving travel plans despite warnings
Delta hints at the possibility of purchasing Boeing's 737 MAX: FT
Alaska to swap Airbus A320s for Boeing 737 Max
Um...although business travel only consists of about 15% of all travel, unless I'm mistaken, business travel also makes about 75% (80%?) of the actual travel business. The loss of business travel will hurt airlines really badly.
 

BreadManPanarin

Registered User
Mar 15, 2017
4,599
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I don't know...I watched some of his videos and I have always come out the same...a little disappointed. I don't know what it is but it just seems as if he only skimmed the surface and never got into the meat and potatoes of it. Or rather, it just seems he doesn't have a deep understanding of any of the companies he talks about. I'm not saying I do...yet it seems as if I have dove deeper than he has which is absurd since I know I only skimmed the surface of most of the companies I have researched into.

Totally. He is a TSLA bull too, and his lack of creative reasoning or in-depth analysis on TSLA makes me think he isn’t very credible on NIO either. His videos are 5-10% actual information that is obvious and readily available to anyone, and 90-95% stock pumping/cheerleading. But what else would we expect from somebody who calls himself “Stock Moe”? Lol

YouTube has been fantastically positive for decentralizing information/news and giving people a platform to share information and ideas, but unfortunately the ad monetization has made it so that 4/5 content creators (especially investing related ones) are just trying to crank out as much content as they can on topics they know people are interested in, and a lot of the information is very superficial and low value as a result.

By the way, in my opinion Tesla Daily (on podcast and youtube) is easily the best daily resource for Tesla news and periodic analyst interviews for Tesla investors to stay up to date. Rob Mauer has been running the podcast for many years and is 100% about sharing relevant news and information on the company and basically 0% about stock pumping, which is super refreshing. He’s also very financially adept and able to discuss finer points of the company’s financials in an accurate and coherent way. I see much more value in his content than a guy like Chicken Genius who is 100% right about the stock, but is way more on the pumper side than the sober news conveyer side.
 
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PithShiver

Registered User
May 21, 2020
16
4
With all the crypto talk around here you guys have me interested. That being said, as a Canadian I don't want to get taxed out the ass. Do any of these sites such as coinbase or coinsmart have TFSA options? Or is the only way to buy a stock or ETF under a TFSA account?
 

Devilsfan992

Registered User
Apr 14, 2012
8,623
3,539
Um...although business travel only consists of about 15% of all travel, unless I'm mistaken, business travel also makes about 75% (80%?) of the actual travel business. The loss of business travel will hurt airlines really badly.

You may be correct. I did not realize this. Interesting article states that only 12% of air travel is from businesses, but ~75% of their profit is also from business.

Which Passengers Make the Most Money for Airlines?.

I don't think business travel will go away, but it will be reformed.
 

StLHokie

Registered User
May 27, 2014
2,051
286
North Carolina
In response to @StLHokie:

Energy is a massive opportunity, no doubt. But I think you are downplaying how huge the automotive opportunity is. I think before weighing the likelihood of success or execution risk you just need to look at exactly what they say they will do. If by 2030 they can achieve production and sale of 10-20 million vehicles per year with around 40% gross auto margins, plus a $10-40k FSD software option with a decent take rate, plus a data driven/risk optimized Tesla insurance product with a high take rate, and throw a functioning autonomous ridehailing network on top.... the value associated with all of that is astronomical. We can argue about whether they will achieve it or not, but the path forward is extremely clear and the rewards associated with successful execution are immense.

Edit: I should have mentioned this before but somehow it slipped my mind. Tesla has another huge advantage in access to cheap capital. With a valuation nearing $500B and probably $1T in the not distant future, they have the ability to raise billions of dollars in exchange for trivial amounts of equity. They could do an at the market cap raise of 1% or less tomorrow and build a giga factory or two with the cash. Having access to huge amounts of cheap capital and allocating it correctly in infrastructure and production capacity creates a flywheel effect that keeps adding value to the business, which makes access to even more capital even cheaper, which adds value to the business, which makes capital cheaper, and on and on it goes. This is a massive advantage that Tesla’s competitors mostly do not have access to. Essentially myself and other Tesla investors are saying “we believe that you can do the things you say you can do. Here’s all the money you could possibly need to make it happen.”

Relative to it's direct competitors, I can absolutely see how one could feel that Tesla is the future. They have significantly more infrastructure and funding than other EV manufacturers/battery development/energy solutions/etc. But I think you missed the point that I was trying to make. It's not the direct competitors that are a threat to Tesla, but rather the indirect competitors, solutions to the problems Tesla is pursuing that are of a completely different mindset, alternative energy solutions being probably the best example.

Tesla may be able to achieve the production levels based on the infrastructure they are developing in the timeframe they have provided based on their current projections, but what if an alternative to EVs, like using a different energy source to power vehicles, is developed prior to the rollout of all these vehicles and that causes the benefits of the electric vehicle to become obsolete? If there is no longer a demand for electric vehicles, then Tesla's business model is shot. There are a lot of sectors that are currently researching and developing solutions to the same problems that Tesla is, just with a different mentality in mind, and I feel these are the biggest reason to be cautious with Tesla as a whole.
 

CRAZY_FAN

Registered User
Aug 26, 2002
1,362
415
Quebec
RSI (DMYT) Q3 revenue up 370% YoY and they raised guidance by 20% for 2020. I kept saying this was super undervalued, should run between now and the merger.
 

BreadManPanarin

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Mar 15, 2017
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Relative to it's direct competitors, I can absolutely see how one could feel that Tesla is the future. They have significantly more infrastructure and funding than other EV manufacturers/battery development/energy solutions/etc. But I think you missed the point that I was trying to make. It's not the direct competitors that are a threat to Tesla, but rather the indirect competitors, solutions to the problems Tesla is pursuing that are of a completely different mindset, alternative energy solutions being probably the best example.

Tesla may be able to achieve the production levels based on the infrastructure they are developing in the timeframe they have provided based on their current projections, but what if an alternative to EVs, like using a different energy source to power vehicles, is developed prior to the rollout of all these vehicles and that causes the benefits of the electric vehicle to become obsolete? If there is no longer a demand for electric vehicles, then Tesla's business model is shot. There are a lot of sectors that are currently researching and developing solutions to the same problems that Tesla is, just with a different mentality in mind, and I feel these are the biggest reason to be cautious with Tesla as a whole.

I agree that while no legitimate competition currently exists, it is theoretically feasible for it to exist at some point. I rate that risk over the time frame of the next 10 years to be low enough to be comfortable with having a large position. It took Tesla 12+ years just to get to this point, so no other technology will be born overnight and dominate.

It is worth noting that energy is not even a component of most analysts’ ratings on Tesla. Even ARK with their uber bull case of $4400 by 2024 does not include energy or insurance in that case, it is purely based on scaling factories, reducing car costs, and achieving autonomy. I think that energy is just a nice huge addressable bonus market for Tesla, but if others were to address that market more effectively it would not present a significant threat to Tesla. In fact, it would allow them to focus on their core business rather than having to split resources solving both clean vehicles and clean energy production/supply. Elon would likely be thrilled, as the mission of Tesla is “to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy”, not “to become a highly profitable monopoly.”

Bottom line, I realize you are sort of taking a devil’s advocate position for the point of the exercise and you aren’t wrong at all. Risks exist, without any doubt. I just think it falls to each investor to weigh those risks and decide how to proceed. I’m unlikely to convince you that the overall risk is low, and you are unlikely to convince me that the overall risk exposure is high. :)

Nonetheless, I do point out that I’m only risking the amount of money that I’m willing and able to lose without jeopardizing my ability to retire by 55. If Tesla went BK tomorrow and I lost 70% of my portfolio, I still have a road map to comfortable retirement. I think that is a very important factor for people to keep in mind. Don’t take big risks on your ability to retire folks, bad idea!
 
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puck stoppa

Registered User
Jul 5, 2011
12,905
6,441
Winnipeg
"And then he said, 'Boeing's headed to $120.'"

giphy.gif
This is starting to get old. We get it, he said it. But you bringing it up every second day and trying to rub it in his face is equally as annoying.
He also told me to sell Well.to, doesn’t mean I’m going to rub it in his face constantly when it hits 10$.
 

BreadManPanarin

Registered User
Mar 15, 2017
4,599
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This is starting to get old. We get it, he said it. But you bringing it up every second day and trying to rub it in his face is equally as annoying.

This is true. The real question is, are those things more or less annoying than me refusing to shut up about Tesla? :laugh:
 

puck stoppa

Registered User
Jul 5, 2011
12,905
6,441
Winnipeg
This is true. The real question is, are those things more or less annoying than me refusing to shut up about Tesla? :laugh:
Your bringing actual information to the table. You along with others convinced me to finally start a position even though I felt it was over priced. I mean I’ve been waiting since 1100 for it to come down :laugh:
Thanks for the nudge, small position in low 400s is better than nothing!
I should add it’s tough when youre new to investing and don’t have lots of money to work with. Buying Tesla at 2000 seemed daunting at the time.
 
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CRAZY_FAN

Registered User
Aug 26, 2002
1,362
415
Quebec
LCA making a move pre market into mid 15 range. Let’s get this merger completed! I’ve been waiting to buy SQ on the next dip, not sure when that will be at this point?

They are also getting access to Illinois and West Virginia. Once this is GNOG it will double in price fast. I had high expectations with 3 states, now we can say that they will be in 5 states likely by end of 2021.
 

StLHokie

Registered User
May 27, 2014
2,051
286
North Carolina
I agree that while no legitimate competition currently exists, it is theoretically feasible for it to exist at some point. I rate that risk over the time frame of the next 10 years to be low enough to be comfortable with having a large position. It took Tesla 12+ years just to get to this point, so no other technology will be born overnight and dominate.

It is worth noting that energy is not even a component of most analysts’ ratings on Tesla. Even ARK with their uber bull case of $4400 by 2024 does not include energy or insurance in that case, it is purely based on scaling factories, reducing car costs, and achieving autonomy. I think that energy is just a nice huge addressable bonus market for Tesla, but if others were to address that market more effectively it would not present a significant threat to Tesla. In fact, it would allow them to focus on their core business rather than having to split resources solving both clean vehicles and clean energy production/supply. Elon would likely be thrilled, as the mission of Tesla is “to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy”, not “to become a highly profitable monopoly.”

Bottom line, I realize you are sort of taking a devil’s advocate position for the point of the exercise and you aren’t wrong at all. Risks exist, without any doubt. I just think it falls to each investor to weigh those risks and decide how to proceed. I’m unlikely to convince you that the risks are low, and you are unlikely to convince me that the risks are high. :)

(I do point out that I’m only risking the amount of money that I’m willing and able to lose without jeopardizing my ability to retire by 55. I think that is a very important factor for people to keep in mind. Don’t take big risks on your ability to retire folks, bad idea!)

Yes but many of these competitors are already up and running and have infrastructure in place. Take CLNE for example (which I admittedly hold shares in). CLNE first went public back in 2007 and it was initially founded by oil giant T Boone Pickens back in 1996. There are already 540 stations nationwide providing RNG, and are contracted for at least 100 more this year. Recently California has CARB certified number RNG fueled vehicles for multi-class use. Last year the company sold over 140million gallons of RNG and the annual increase YoY has been close to 30%.

These aren't companies that are startups and just now getting funding, they are companies that already have significant backing, infrastructure, and in many cases are already profitable.
 
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dortt

Registered User
Sep 21, 2018
5,298
2,656
Houston, TX
You may be correct. I did not realize this. Interesting article states that only 12% of air travel is from businesses, but ~75% of their profit is also from business.

Which Passengers Make the Most Money for Airlines?.

I don't think business travel will go away, but it will be reformed.

Premium cabins are where airlines make money, along with the FF programs.

Economy class passengers do not make much for the airlines
 
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