What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Eternal Leaf]

Doesn't matter if he catches Gretzky anyway. He's the GOAT goal scorer.

 

[BLNY]

Barring injury, I think he plays till he beats it. Gretzky played 1487 NHL games to reach 894 goals. Ovi has 713 goals in 1171 games. He won't likely do it in the next ~ 4 seasons, but he should be able to maintain a 30-35 goal pace as long as he's healthy. He plays to 40 or 41 years of age and he'll be right there.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

I give him 50/50 on getting to 800. 2% on getting the record.

Hope he does it though!

 

[Hank Plank]

He's not gonna catch Wayne but it doesn't matter: when you factor in the era, multiple lockdowns and shortened seasons, he is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

When you factor in no excuses, 99 is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

He's not gonna catch Wayne but it doesn't matter: when you factor in the era, multiple lockdowns and shortened seasons, he is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

False. Mario Lemieux is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

690 in 915 >>> 713 in 1171

Now factor in cancer, chronic back, and hip problems.

 

[Sykur]

Don't compare age or seasons. Compare games.

Gretzky got 894 in 1487 games, good for .601 gpg.

As of this post Ovechkin has 713 in 1171 games, good for .608 gpg.

Ovie is slightly ahead of the Great One but the big caveat is that goal production seriously declines with age. Ovie still has 316 games in hand, which would be 5 more whole seasons not including this one. He has 182 goals to go so that means if he continues scoring at a .575 gpg pace he will catch Gretzky but that's a tall order: That's 47.2 goals a season. Yes, even the season he turns 40. And any season where he scores less than that makes the last season figure even higher.

A very tall order.

 

[The Nuge]

I’d say 50%. I think it really comes down to whether or not he wants to stay in the league into his early 40s or not.

This. He was on pace for 58 goals last year. He’s down this year, but still on pace for 30+ over a full season. Even being pessimistic, if he is only scoring 20-30 goals from here out, it’s doable. It’s just a matter of how long he wants to keep going. If he wants the record, he’ll break it. With his shot, he’ll be able to hang around as a PP specialist long enough to make it happen

 

[Sykur]

False. Mario Lemieux is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

Mario, incidentally, had 690 goals in only 915 games. A staggering .754 gpg.

But that's not even the best. That would be Mike Bossy, whose 573 goals in a 752 game shortened career for .762 gpg is the highest of all time.

It pays to have only played hockey in the 80s, and to retire at your peak due to injury.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I don't think it's going to happen. I'm not even sure he'll catch Howe. Should pass Jagr for third though.

 

[BM14]

Laughable take, Ovechkin would destroy Gretzky's era just picking him up and dropping him in tomorrow.

Laughable take. Ovechkin wouldn't have knees to skate on and if he tried that spear in the 80's, he wouldn't have a head either.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Zero, he looks slow, heavy and disinterested. Maybe he will be on putins line in the KHL and score 80s goals a year but putinsky will score 467, so he cannot win.

 

[abo9]

Laughable take. Ovechkin wouldn't have knees to skate on and if he tried that spear in the 80's, he wouldn't have a head either.

I can see the argument for McDavid having trouble with the "toughness" of that era, but Ovechkin? The guy is 6'3 240 lbs, heavy hitter most of his career too. He's probably the star today that would have been most unimpaired by the different rules.

 

[Riddum]

It doesn't matter. The guy with most rockets is the best goal scorer ever.

Laughable take. Ovechkin wouldn't have knees to skate on and if he tried that spear in the 80's, he wouldn't have a head either.

To be fair, there was a time when Ovi was an extremely dirty player. Can you imagine Ovi in the 80s and 90s when blind side hits to the heads were essentially legal? Ovi would have murdered a few players.

Ovi would have no problems playing dirty like a Messier

Edit: For example, look at this attempted murder... There was no penalty called on the play lol


That Lindros hit was "clean" [at the time], can you believe it?

 

[Stimpythecat]

If allowances are made for Ovechkin losing games due to work stoppages and the pandemic, then allowances have to be made for Gretzky as well. He played his prime years in an 80 game season and his age 18 year is not included in his NHL totals because the oilers were in the WHA.

 

[Koivu11]

He’s going to have to play well into his 40s to do it I think.

 

[Minar]

Laughable take, Ovechkin would destroy Gretzky's era just picking him up and dropping him in tomorrow.

This is irrelevant. Putting players on different eras to evaluate their rank is a irrelevant argument. For instance we could fantasize about Tavares in the 1980s and how well he would do. Does that mean Tavares is the GOAT? We can only evaluate players according to how they do against their peers.

 

[jetsforever]

Depends how long he plans to play, but I really hope that Ovechkin chases the record. If he plays until he's 40/41, which is pretty realistic for a player of his calibre, he'd need "only" about 36 goals per season (or less given that doesn't count this year).

And I wonder, if he's 5 goals away from the record, would the media attention be enough for a team to take him on even if he's a total liability on the ice? Like, play him on the PP until he's done?

I'm just 25 but my dad hammered from the day I could understand hockey that nobody could ever touch Gretzky's point, assist and goal records. Well, I'd love for him to be wrong!

Hang on apparently I got flagged with a warning for being unclear in my response.

Let me try again: if Ovi gets close I could definitely imagine his teammates constantly feeding him, similar to what they did with Kobe Bryant in his retirement game that netted him 60 points

 

[Dondini]

As long as he hits 802 he’s the greatest goal scorer of all time in my books.

 

[Dondini]

This is irrelevant. Putting players on different eras to evaluate their rank is a irrelevant argument. For instance we could fantasize about Tavares in the 1980s and how well he would do. Does that mean Tavares is the GOAT? We can only evaluate players according to how they do against their peers.

you could put tavares in the 80s and he wouldn’t be the goat lol

 

[max21]

Hang on apparently I got flagged with a warning for being unclear in my response.

Let me try again: if Ovi gets close I could definitely imagine his teammates constantly feeding him, similar to what they did with Kobe Bryant in his retirement game that netted him 60 points

I knew what you meant, I can see why your comment could have been skewed though lol

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Hang on apparently I got flagged with a warning for being unclear in my response.

Let me try again: if Ovi gets close I could definitely imagine his teammates constantly feeding him, similar to what they did with Kobe Bryant in his retirement game that netted him 60 points

Ah - I legitimately thought you meant that someone would try to have Ovechkin killed. I'll reverse the infraction.

 

[jcs0218]

I personally think Ovechkin will keep playing until he catches Gretzky, even if it takes him until 45 years old to do it.

I don't think it will take him until 45, but my point is that he will keep playing until he breaks it.

Does anyone believe he will actually retire if he is only 10-20 goals away?

 

[jetsforever]

As long as he hits 802 he’s the greatest goal scorer of all time in my books.

So Howe counts but Gretzky doesn't?

 

[BM14]

It doesn't matter. The guy with most rockets is the best goal scorer ever.

To be fair, there was a time when Ovi was an extremely dirty player. Can you imagine Ovi in the 80s and 90s when blind side hits to the heads were essentially legal? Ovi would have murdered a few players.

Ovi would have no problems playing dirty like a Messier

He's also doing all of this with full body armour. It's a lot easier to be fearless when you're not wearing leather elbow pads and shoulder pads not too much bigger than what women wore under their blouses at work.

Remember the equipment of the 80's?

Could he even shoot with a wooden stick?

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

I feel the same now as I did last year, and 2 years ago, and 3 years ago... extremely unlikely Ovi will catch Gretzky.