What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[blankall]

Looks to me like he's declining. I just don't see it happening. Missing all these games did to covid is probably the nail in the coffin for his run at the record.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Put a few bucks on him doing it for the potential payoff, then bet against it.

 

[Islands]

100% easy full 82 tho needed*

 

[CpatainCanuck]

7 goals in 19 games this year says to me "not good". If he averages 30 goals a year from now on, which would be quite impressive for someone in their late 30's/early 40s, it would take him 6 more seasons to surpass the record. It would require Selanne-like longevity.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Zero. I'm not going to say he's done but I watch every Caps game and outside of one game against the Flyers he's looked average at best, awful a lot and very slow. Maybe he gets it going again and all reserve judgement until the postseason where he's been excellent in each showing the past 3 years.

Ultimately it doesn't matter, he's already the best and when he eventually gets 800 that should put it all to rest. The multiple lockouts and now multiple shortened seasons have robbed him of what would have been something inevitable. Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the NHL.

 

[Seras]

Was a small chance before covid, now there is a zero chance

 

[Madifer]

I hope OV retires when it feels right instead of becoming Jagr to beat that record.
I do fear the latter though. That would be sad.

 

[Amazinmets73]

Those saying 0 or 1 percent are crazy. Ovie already derives the overwhelming majority of his value from his elite shot. As I've previously stated, age does not have nearly as adverse an impact on shooting ability as other skills.

Ovechkin could easily be an above average/average player until his early 40s. I.e 6+ years from now.

 

[Amazinmets73]

I hope OV retires when it feels right instead of becoming Jagr to beat that record.
I do fear the latter though. That would be sad.

Jagr had excellent seasons in his 40s

 

[Bondurant]

What is the Vegas line on the record?

 

[GrizzGreen]

Honestly hard to speculate as he's been less consistent in his later years. Hope he stays in NA for his remaining years of production though

 

[42]

0.00000000001%

 

[TeeTee]

Those saying 0 or 1 percent are crazy. Ovie already derives the overwhelming majority of his value from his elite shot. As I've previously stated, age does not have nearly as adverse an impact on shooting ability as other skills.
Ovechkin could easily be an above average/average player until his early 40s. I.e 6+ years from now.

Currently, other than his shot, he is not even an average player.

 

[End of Line]

Threeve

 

[Barnum]

Earlier today, I was walking around Fairfield County, CT and thinking the same thing. Can Ovechkin beat Gretzky? Things I thought of were very deep and compelling to myself and a group of other skeptics. Did Ovechkin truly score those many goals or were those goals scored through video manipulation and documented by a vast amount of people who disagree that Alexander scored those many goals? Who’s to say, eh?

 

[Amazinmets73]

Currently, other than his shot, he is not even an average player.

I agree, but due to his shot he's above average.

 

[Beukeboom]

Those saying 0 or 1 percent are crazy. Ovie already derives the overwhelming majority of his value from his elite shot. As I've previously stated, age does not have nearly as adverse an impact on shooting ability as other skills.

Ovechkin could easily be an above average/average player until his early 40s. I.e 6+ years from now.

I feel he's too competitive to allow himself trudging along in the league just to reach a record. I'm not talking about now, but can't see him clinging on to a roster spot in order to get a few 20 goals + 15 assist campaigns at the end. The day he's not close to being a ppg player I'd bet he ends up in Russia a few seasons.

 

[abo9]

People saying 0 are forgetting who this guy is.
Gretzky's total is pretty high though, although Ovi has aged gracefully with about 50 goals the past 3 years.
I'll go with 30%.

Depends how long he plans to play, but I really hope that Ovechkin chases the record. If he plays until he's 40/41, which is pretty realistic for a player of his calibre, he'd need "only" about 36 goals per season (or less given that doesn't count this year).

And I wonder, if he's 5 goals away from the record, would the media attention be enough for a team to take him on even if he's a total liability on the ice? Like, play him on the PP until he's done?

I'm just 25 but my dad hammered from the day I could understand hockey that nobody could ever touch Gretzky's point, assist and goal records. Well, I'd love for him to be wrong!

 

[BM14]

He's not gonna catch Wayne but it doesn't matter: when you factor in the era, multiple lockdowns and shortened seasons, he is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

Then factor in the style of hockey played in the eras and the Russian isn't even top 5.

 

[Barnum]

Delete

 

[SML2]

He won't get it done.
He's not going to sign for cheap, the core around him is aging even though he's a freak, and teams shooting for cups dump futures trying to keep runs alive. Add in the shortened season and it's going to be close but no cigar.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Crazy that Gretzky got to 800 at 33 years old

 

[Gargyn]

1%. Very very unlikely. But I guess there is a chance.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Those saying 0 or 1 percent are crazy. Ovie already derives the overwhelming majority of his value from his elite shot. As I've previously stated, age does not have nearly as adverse an impact on shooting ability as other skills.

Ovechkin could easily be an above average/average player until his early 40s. I.e 6+ years from now.

He's not getting that shot off right now and isn't working hard enough on the increasingly ineffective PP to get open. I don't care what the percentages say right now as I know they're top 10 but with the talent on that unit they're not consistent and still have trouble entering the zone and giving up short handed chances.

He's going to come close but I think he's just lost too many games when it really mattered.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Then factor in the style of hockey played in the eras and the Russian isn't even top 5.

Laughable take, Ovechkin would destroy Gretzky's era just picking him up and dropping him in tomorrow.