What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Big Phil, Mar 6, 2021.

  1. Slapshot Sultan Registered User

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    I love Ovi, but these type of things sound more impressive than they are as there are not that many players that have played all seasons from 05-21.

    Not just Ovi, same problem with all these arguments ie any statistic from 98-21 with Marleau. He probably ranks pretty high in all statistics through that specific time period as there are only Thornton & Chara who have played all those specific seasons or even close.

    But of course when counting goals, any statistic with Ovi is nuts..
     
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  2. Slapshot Sultan Registered User

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    It's actually pretty impressive accuracy when you count in the amount of shots & era he played
     
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  3. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    So, odds of him getting to 894? 50/50?
     
  4. GrizzGreen Registered User

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    Goalie save percentage has to play a part as well in that case.
     
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  5. abo9 Registered User

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    Yeah that number is a little "unfair" to younger players and since Ovechkin is 34 (35?) already, not a lot of players older than him are left.
    But, look at these from the table in the previous page (BTW that's an insane labour of love, wow), I think these rows summarize well the scoring situation of each era, and how dominant Ovechkin was compared to his peers in a more fair fashion:

    *As of 3/26/20Ovi*BrettMarioGretzBossyEspoBobbyHoweRichard

    Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs22789011068^301011

    % of 50 goal seasons / 1st 1536%6.40%6.70%8%13%16.7%50%0%100%

    From what I understand, it means that in the 15 years Ovechkin played, there were only 14 50-goal seasons other than his. And we all know that there was no other consistent 50 goals scorer, the others are split across a few players.
     
  6. filinski77 Registered User

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    Seems pretty hard to find without doing a ton of manual labor. I did find some that were close, but not as good as what Ovi will likely have next year:

    Ovi (next year)728Crosby47852%
    Gretzky (last year of career)894Messier61047%
    Howe (in 1970/1971)786Hull Sr55442%

    I would need someone with more data to verify it, but there's a good chance that next year (not including tiny sample sizes from the very start of the NHL) will be the largest gap in NHL history between the 1st and 2nd most career goals of any active players in the league.
     
  7. Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    The best example I could find would be at the end of the Original Six era. Howe had 649 goals, and the closest active player was Beliveau with 399 goals - almost a 63% margin. I can't find any other examples going back to WWII.

    But I think that highlights how rare it is for one person to have score ~50% more goals than the next closest active player.
     
  8. Midnight Judges HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    That is correct.

    But My favorite stat from that line is Rocket Richard had 100% of the 50 goal seasons from his era.
     
  9. ALLCAPSALLTHETIME Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.

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    Barring the end of the world/collapse of civilization or catastrophic injury, I’d say 90%.
     
  10. Weztex Registered User

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    So you don’t have any defenseman or goalie ahead of Ovechkin?

    The last top-100 was put up 3 years ago and Ovechkin was ranked 22nd. He won 2 rockets since so it’s safe to say he would go up 4-6 spots now. If you think ranking Ovi around 15 is embarrassing maybe you are the one underestimating the bulky careers of a lot of players.
     
  11. Midnight Judges HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Bobby Orr.

    No goalies.
     
  12. Midnight Judges HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    There is no justification. Just emotions, nationalistic pride, homerism, nostalgia, etc. Objectively speaking, Ovechkin compares to his generation better than anyone you could rank 10-15. So you can do what the history forum guys do: Simply assume the top end talent was far superior for several consecutive decades back when 90-97% of players were coming from one small country. Some of those guys would claim the 1956 Canadiens had 3 or 4 players that were all superior to the best players of the past 2 decades. And then they'd explain that kids today don't have the opportunities that kids who grew up during the Great Depression had. Seriously. Great Depression era kids were privileged. That was their argument. And that's far from the nuttiest assertion I encountered.

    The participants weren't even honest, and it wasn't a very diverse group. It's was like 65% Canadians plus 15% Pens fans. 0 Caps fans. The only Russian participant quit the project in protest. So yeah, Ovie didn't get a fair shake, and he never will from those guys.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2021
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  13. CageRage Registered User

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    I think age catches up with him before he can crack it. Would have been close if not for lockouts and covid. Still the greatest goal scorer ever, all considered.
     
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  14. ViD #CBJNeedHugs

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    Washington window will close in a couple years. I don’t see why they can’t keep re-signing Ovie for one year until he breaks the record while they rebuild. There’s no way he gets so bad he can’t score at least 15 a year
     
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  15. Selanne00008 Registered User

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    That's kind of where I am at. Doesn't look like he is falling off a cliff health/shot/production wise. Lets say he can put up 80 more in two more seasons after this year. Fairly reasonable? Considering he's on pace this year for 46 goals over an 82 game season right now.

    Lets say he finishes this year with 735 total, again, reasonable. 159 to go.

    2 years later and he needs 79 goals? It's so close you can taste it. He'll stick around.

    And if I had to bet right now on Ovie scoring O/U 80 goals over the next two seasons, I'd be hammering the over. So the 79 goals could be more like 70. A 50 goal season and it's even closer.

    Seriously who in their right mind would stop at say 862 goals?
     
  16. tread102 Registered User

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    Never said it didn’t
     
  17. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    Think he gets 8 more in 13 games? Wait, of course he will lol.
     
  18. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    He'll likely get at least one tonight against the crappy Sabres.
     
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  19. Selanne00008 Registered User

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    He's due a hatty this year. (or back to back hatty)
     
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  20. ALLCAPSALLTHETIME Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.

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    He’s had back to back tricks in 3 straight seasons. :D
     
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  21. Wolf357 Registered User

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    One of those records I always thought unbreakable...As a Gretzky fan TBH I don’t want his record to be broken. But as a fan of the game I am always happy to see new records broken...
    I also like Ovie...just seems like a guy who really has fun out there...if Ovi does for some reason not break the record I hope it’s not due to injury...
     
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  22. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    Great night. In order.
    Canes won, Caps lost, no Ovi goal!

    ;)
     
  23. BallardEra Leafs&Caps Since 1982™

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  24. 123offtheglass Registered User

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    Might have to play into his 40s but I say it's 51/49 he gets it done before then.
     
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  25. SkyFaile Registered User

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    95% if no major injuries
     

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