What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[BRUINS since 1995]

Can’t say. But Ovi racing for the top of NHL goal scorer in this era is something. Wow.

And 99 is at the very top....witch for one if not the best NHL playmaker tells you all you need to know on this great athlete!

 

[tread102]

Team awards are _team awards_ . [Mod]

Yet almost every hockey expert considers sid superior. Sid is still playing at an insanely high level. Still one of the top players in the league. Ovi has been reduced to a one truck pony.

 

[canucklover123]

Yet almost every hockey expert considers sid superior. Sid is still playing at an insanely high level. Still one of the top players in the league. Ovi has been reduced to a one truck pony.

That does the most important thing in a competitive sport lol

 

[tread102]

Defensemen and goalies are second class hockey players everybody knows that. It's like with acting. Clint Eastwood and Arnold Schwarzenegger are the stars (forwards) and Gary Oldman and Steve Buscemi are the supporting actors (defensemen, goalies).

Arnold was a very poor choice for a star actor! Lol and Steve buscemi is great Arnie couldn’t carry his jock strap

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Crosby 3 Stanley Cups > Ovechkin 1 Stanley Cup.

Truly the only thing that matters.

Truly, much more matters than that.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

You'd think so, but then you can go check HF's embarrassing nutty little history forum.

Nostalgia fooled wackos reside there, weird place.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

I'm not trying to talk Ovie down, but the top 4 is cemented in stone. Plante, Sawchuk, Hasek, Hall are four goalies that have a case. Harvey as a D for sure. Rocket Richard as a forward for sure. There are tops 3 places up for grabs after that (assuming only one goalie belongs).

What is Ovie's case over Jagr for instance? Jagr's level of dominance was longer and more impressive. He won scoring races in the dead puck era despite missing 19 games. Or Believau? Even Bobby Hull, people forget that he actually set scoring records. I mean, can anyone honestly say Ovie was a better hockey player than Crosby?

IF Ovi reaches 895 there is more of a case, I'll admit that. Preferably in combo with another SC. But otherwise I can't see why.

At this point there is zero case for Richard over Ovechkin. Both Crosby and Ovechkin are top 10 players ever and I have Crosby exactly one spot ahead. You guys choose where they are in that stratus, but they're there and they're not done.

 

[pi314]

That does the most important thing in a competitive sport lol

Winning is the most important thing.

 

[abo9]

Just checked shots on goal. Ovi already has over 600 more than Wayne and many more than Lemieux. Starting to rethink this whole, greatest goal scorer of all time thing.

I don't understand this argument against Ovechkin. He scores a lot of goals... by shooting more than anyone else, it kinda makes sense?

 

[tread102]

I don't understand this argument against Ovechkin. He scores a lot of goals... by shooting more than anyone else, it kinda makes sense?

shooting percentage has to play a part. Ovi is going to go down as the most prolific shooter ever he’s going to end up with 500-1000 more shots than number 2. That’s not even counting all the shots into the defenders shins or wide of the goal. Gretzky was a playmaker first goal scorer 2nd how many goal would he have scored if he played the game like Ovi.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

What did Gretzky say about shots?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

It seems that the greatest hockey player ever approves of Ovie's shot volume.

Such a weird criticism.

 

[DearDiary]

What did Gretzky say about shots?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

It seems that the greatest hockey player ever approves of Ovie's shot volume.

Such a weird criticism.

I think people have a problem moreso with the idea of Ovechkin being called the best goal scorer, when he has a very inaccurate shot.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I think people have a problem moreso with the idea of Ovechkin being called the best goal scorer, when he has a very inaccurate shot.

Perhaps those people should actually watch him play. He has pinpoint accuracy. Watch where he shoots. In particular, watch for the shot that is above the right pad and below the blocker. That's an area he has been working on lately, with a lot of success.

It's just harder to score these days, believe it or not. What with giant Michelin men in net.

Shooting percentages are a lot lower than the pond hockey of the 1980s through early 1990s for a reason.

 

[abo9]

shooting percentage has to play a part. Ovi is going to go down as the most prolific shooter ever he’s going to end up with 500-1000 more shots than number 2. That’s not even counting all the shots into the defenders shins or wide of the goal. Gretzky was a playmaker first goal scorer 2nd how many goal would he have scored if he played the game like Ovi.

Does it really matter at the end of the day? The fact that Ovechkin manages to shoot that much more than everyone else has value. Why does no one else shoot as much, when it obviously produces results? And Gretzky could have played a different game and scored even more goals, but he did not. Imo, it's a compliment to Gretzky to be beaten by a specialist like Ovechkin. It really is indicative of how dominant he was in the offensive aspect of the game for such devotion to goalscoring from a generational player to even be in the conversation of beating the record.

Also, while I hate to bring a topic that's been beaten to death, the 80's were a higher scoring era, so that would influence shooting percentages as well. Of course it's gonna be higher when goalies have sub-900 save percentages.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

shooting percentage has to play a part. Ovi is going to go down as the most prolific shooter ever he’s going to end up with 500-1000 more shots than number 2. That’s not even counting all the shots into the defenders shins or wide of the goal. Gretzky was a playmaker first goal scorer 2nd how many goal would he have scored if he played the game like Ovi.

It plays absolutely zero part. This isn't basketball, efficiency doesn't matter just the total. It's hard enough to get 3 shots on goal let alone 6. It's a complete non argument made by people with an agenda to knock Ovechkin off his pedestal. It's embarrassing.

This isn't 1982, Ovechkin isn't teeing it up from just inside the blue line and scoring routinely against 5'8 pylons in goal who all sport sub .900 SV% while leaving a wake of subpar defensemen reeling on the ice, who all likely rip a pack of darts every single day. Terrible take.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

I think people have a problem moreso with the idea of Ovechkin being called the best goal scorer, when he has a very inaccurate shot.

Who are these people?

 

[filinski77]

Since Ovechkin entered the league he has 250 more goals than the next closest player. That’s like five 50 goal seasons worth of goals.

That’s just insane.

Assuming that Marleau retires after this season: Ovechkin will have about 52% more career goals than the next active player in the NHL. Has there ever been a gap that large amongst active players? It's just ridiculous.

 

[filinski77]

So funny when people try to use shots as a NEGATIVE here lol. Getting a shot off is so much harder today than it was in the 80's, and is an extremely valuable skill.

Here are the NHL leaders for # of times leading the league in shots:

Ovi - 11
Hull Sr. -7
Bure/Esposito/Gretzky/Dionne - 4
Howe/Bourque/Hull Jr. - 3

I'm sure if all the other top goal scorers in league history could have generated more shots, they would have won more (retro) rockets lol.

 

[Miri]

nvm

 

[Midnight Judges]

Assuming that Marleau retires after this season: Ovechkin will have about 52% more career goals than the next active player in the NHL. Has there ever been a gap that large amongst active players? It's just ridiculous.

The answer is no - no other player has ever had a 50% + gap between them and the next goal scorer over a period of 15 years (I realize this year makes 16. My data is for 15 years, but I doubt 16 is all that different). Look at the "Lead over next best, first 15 years" row.

Esposito had a 45% gap. Gretzky had 30%. Richard had a 40% gap.

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	706	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	8	4	11	1	22	6	18	2	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	798	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	3	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think people have a problem moreso with the idea of Ovechkin being called the best goal scorer, when he has a very inaccurate shot.

Wow.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I have seen a lot of people go through all types of mental gymnastics to try and come up with ways to diminish Ovi's accomplishments and status as arguably the greatest goal scorer of all time but saying he's shouldn't be considered a great goal scorer because he shoots too much is really something else.

 

[filinski77]

The answer is no - no other player has ever had a 50% + gap between them and the next goal scorer over a period of 15 years (I realize this year makes 16. My data is for 15 years, but I doubt 16 is all that different). Look at the "Lead over next best, first 15 years" row.

Esposito had a 45% gap. Gretzky had 30%. Richard had a 40% gap.

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	706	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	8	4	11	1	22	6	18	2	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	798	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	3	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Right, but not even over 15 years (which is obviously still impressive) - I mean as in just an active players. So also including guys that started before Ovi came into the league (Staal etc).

 

[Midnight Judges]

Right, but not even over 15 years (which is obviously still impressive) - I mean as in just an active players. So also including guys that started before Ovi came into the league (Staal etc).

Ah, yes. That's right - 15 year spans vs all active NHL players are two different things.

 

[canucklover123]

Winning is the most important thing.

Ironically only used in an argument as a deterrent lol......
Unfortunate, you don't push that agenda on inferior players who won a lot.

Goals are the most important thing in hockey, Ovi is the best in the world at it. Does that make him the best player nah... because other items even though don't carry as much weight are important and he lacks in some of that.

But oddly enough, were in an Ovi goal thread lol