He
has taken
some steps forward in improving his all-around game...but even "massive strides" (which i don't really agree he took), only kinda take him up to average-ish or serviceable in a lot of aspects. He's still not a particularly good forechecker or defensive player, his lack of speed holds him back there...and the skating hasn't really seemed to improve (may even have regressed with injury). He's still showing some pretty terrible puck management tendencies, in his own zone especially. He has taken some steps in being a better "puck possession player" offensively, as well as in his ability to get involved and connect some decent passes rather than just floating around waiting to get his shot off all the time. He's become a little bit more physically engaged, but it's still not a whole lot.
It's just that, even with notable improvement in a lot of those areas, he's still far from a "special" or even really "above average" player with respect to his all-around game. Which, not too far down the line...when you're starting to talk about a $7.5M player (which
is probably a fair and reasonable "market value" expectation), you kinda hope for something a bit special. Which basically just comes down to his shot and goal-scoring instincts. That's the "special" dimension you're really paying for. So it's a twofold question from there.
1)Whether he's going to get back to where he was in that dimension as a reliable, take it to the bank perennial 30G+ guy, or more of a 20-25G guy he looked in the last stretch we saw of him?
2)Even if he
is going to be that easy 30G+ every year guy, is
that a piece that you want to lock in as one of your absolute "core" top-end salaries. I just think you have to be a bit selective in who you commit those long-term $7.5M+ type contracts to.
Pettersson and Hughes are going to be absolute bank-breakers coming up on the horizon. Horvat isn't signed at a bargain
forever, and whether it's Markstrom now...or Demko in a bit, there's going to have to be substantial money going into the goaltender. So that's kinda your "core money". Is there room for Boeser to be part of that group?
I'd liken it to the quandary the Leafs have run into with allocating their "core money" and how they've handled Nylander, specifically. Same
type of player as Boeser in a lot of respects, and really talking about the same ballpark $$$ value probably. They had to decide if Nylander was a guy they wanted to commit to as part of that core money, and they did. But it's where i think they went wrong, and now have a crazy top-heavy cap structure where i think Nylander is really the piece that tips the scales too far...on a player who is effectively quite one-dimensional.
Ideally, we
would keep everyone including Boeser. We really aren't in a position to be losing 20-30 Goals like that. But cap-wise, i think something's gotta give...and we have a real need on the blueline that i think is probably harder to bandaid than at least partially replacing Boeser's goal-scoring from the wing by committee.
Dumba certainly isn't the right piece to do that for. Absolutely agree there. And you're not getting a guy like Parayko for Boeser (especially not with Pietro potentially leaving them). Realistically, i'd be hoping for something like maybe Brett Pesce or Josh Manson. I think that's more the market you're shooting for in a swap for a winger like Boeser. But options are slim out there, and there's a good chance that you'd have to do something more like the Drouin for Sergachev swap, trying to pick your spot on a much more unproven piece with "upside". Which would make it even riskier.
It absolutely has to be the right piece. But unless you think Boeser is going to radically morph into a very different player in the next little while, i believe you have to seriously evaluate whether he's going to be a core big money piece for the long-term future, and explore moving him right now while there's top value in it. And for me, expecting a radical growth in a player (winger specifically) at what will be 24 years of age and 3 full NHL seasons under his belt, and a generally pretty flat trajectory, seems fairly dubious. Not impossible, but i wouldn't count on it.