deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
- 21,617
Don't really care what Fletcher does this summer as long as he doesn't mortgage the future.
If Hart can regain his mojo and be "average," this is a 95-100 point team, above average, 100+.
So don't panic, don't trade guys like Zamula or Frost, don't give up on Patrick and sell low.
The Flyers' "cycle" of the last few seasons has been driven by bad goalie play:
2016-17: 26th in all strength S%, PDO .983
2018-19: 29th in all strength S%, PDO .988
2020-21: 31th in all strength S%, PDO .974
See a trend in the off years?
2015-16: 7th in all strength S%, PDO 1.00
2017-18: 22nd in all strength S%, PDO .998
2019-20: 16th in all strength S%, PDO 1.008
Notice the "good" years, other than 2015, the Flyers weren't being carried by their goaltenders.
So the last two good years are actually closer to their norm than the bad years. 98 points and 106 points (pro-rated).
For all the gnashing of teeth, when you account for bad goalie play, this team has steadily improved the last five seasons.
Goalies (GAA - xGA/60):
2015-16: Mason 54g +0.01, Neuvirth 32g -0.25
2016-17: Mason 58g +0.35, Neuvirth 28g +0.72, Stolarz 7g -0.28
2017-18: Elliott 43g +0.16, Neuvirth 21g +0.15, Mrazek 17g +0.84, Lyon 11g +0.15
2018-19: Hart 31g +0.30, Elliott 26g +0.28, Stolarz 12g +0.66, Pickard 11g +1.64, Neuvirth 7g +1.84
2019-20: Hart 43g +0.06, Elliott 31g +0.45
2020-21: Hart 27g +1.45, Elliott 25g +0.61
This is goals above expected, so it generally incorporates any defensive flaws.
The only goalie during this stretch to play above average was Neuvirth in 2015-16, Mason that year, and Hart last season put in average performances.
Kinda funny that a GM who was an goaltender couldn't find goaltenders.
If Hart can regain his mojo and be "average," this is a 95-100 point team, above average, 100+.
So don't panic, don't trade guys like Zamula or Frost, don't give up on Patrick and sell low.
The Flyers' "cycle" of the last few seasons has been driven by bad goalie play:
2016-17: 26th in all strength S%, PDO .983
2018-19: 29th in all strength S%, PDO .988
2020-21: 31th in all strength S%, PDO .974
See a trend in the off years?
2015-16: 7th in all strength S%, PDO 1.00
2017-18: 22nd in all strength S%, PDO .998
2019-20: 16th in all strength S%, PDO 1.008
Notice the "good" years, other than 2015, the Flyers weren't being carried by their goaltenders.
So the last two good years are actually closer to their norm than the bad years. 98 points and 106 points (pro-rated).
For all the gnashing of teeth, when you account for bad goalie play, this team has steadily improved the last five seasons.
Goalies (GAA - xGA/60):
2015-16: Mason 54g +0.01, Neuvirth 32g -0.25
2016-17: Mason 58g +0.35, Neuvirth 28g +0.72, Stolarz 7g -0.28
2017-18: Elliott 43g +0.16, Neuvirth 21g +0.15, Mrazek 17g +0.84, Lyon 11g +0.15
2018-19: Hart 31g +0.30, Elliott 26g +0.28, Stolarz 12g +0.66, Pickard 11g +1.64, Neuvirth 7g +1.84
2019-20: Hart 43g +0.06, Elliott 31g +0.45
2020-21: Hart 27g +1.45, Elliott 25g +0.61
This is goals above expected, so it generally incorporates any defensive flaws.
The only goalie during this stretch to play above average was Neuvirth in 2015-16, Mason that year, and Hart last season put in average performances.
Kinda funny that a GM who was an goaltender couldn't find goaltenders.