What moves would you make this summer?

[Rebels57]

Because it makes no sense to spend 4-6 million on depth players AND give them term, when we do have the replacements in house within 1 year.

I personally want a stopgap F who can play C. But we don't need to spend that money on guys with term, unless they are elite...like a Panarin. Afterall, we "could" have those holes filled already by Patrick, Frost and Farabee. Having a backup plan is smart. But that plan should not be signing 2 guys coming off career years to long term deals.

Connolly had 3 straight years of 25-27 points....this year 46.
Nelson 4 straight years of 35-45 points....this year 53.

Exactly. These guys are going to be looking for long-term deals and are simply not good enough to be worth investing money and term in. Swing for the fences with top UFA like Panarin or Duchene, OR look to acquire players via trade that don't have long-terms left, OR just let it ride with prospects until better options present themselves.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Duchene

 

[Rebels57]

Duchene

Absolutely.

 

[TCTC]

Duchene

We obviously won't be the only team interested in him, but man, if Fletcher doesn't try everything to get him on this team...

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Because it makes no sense to spend 4-6 million on depth players AND give them term, when we do have the replacements in house within 1 year.

I personally want a stopgap F who can play C. But we don't need to spend that money on guys with term, unless they are elite...like a Panarin. Afterall, we "could" have those holes filled already by Patrick, Frost and Farabee. Having a backup plan is smart. But that plan should not be signing 2 guys coming off career years to long term deals.

Connolly had 3 straight years of 25-27 points....this year 46.
Nelson 4 straight years of 35-45 points....this year 53.

Brock Nelson is 37th in the entire NHL in even strength goals over the last 5 seasons.

On the Flyers, only JVR has more ESG in the last 5 years.

Those scoffing at even the notion of signing Nelson to address the Flyers’ big hole at 2C are really underrating him. (No, this is not the same as arguing the Flyers must target Nelson at any cost, or over other potential options, for those itching at their straw men).

However, if the Flyers don’t add a 2nd line caliber C, there’s no point even playing next season.

I think you have to look into each of Duchene, Hayes, & Nelson & weigh their demands. I’m not sure Duchene has the 200 ft game they want, & he’ll be the most costly, but I’d still gauge his demands vs the others. He’s had a good playoffs. Hayes did not, but I tend to think he’s their target; a lot of that will depend on Vigneault.

 

[Stizzle]

However, if the Flyers don’t add a 2nd line caliber C, there’s no point even playing next season.

This place is really something.

 

[Tripod]

Brock Nelson is 37th in the entire NHL in even strength goals over the last 5 seasons.

On the Flyers, only JVR has more ESG in the last 5 years.

Those scoffing at even the notion of signing Nelson to address the Flyers’ big hole at 2C are really underrating him. (No, this is not the same as arguing the Flyers must target Nelson at any cost, or over other potential options, for those itching at their straw men).

However, if the Flyers don’t add a 2nd line caliber C, there’s no point even playing next season.

I think you have to look into each of Duchene, Hayes, & Nelson & weigh their demands. I’m not sure Duchene has the 200 ft game they want, & he’ll be the most costly, but I’d still gauge his demands vs the others. He’s had a good playoffs. Hayes did not, but I tend to think he’s their target; a lot of that will depend on Vigneault.

And the last TWO years, Nelson is 63rd in ES goals...behind Couts, JVR, Giroux and Konecny from the Flyers. I think that is a truer representation of him.

I want a #2C, but unlike you, don't think signing a long term 5-8 million C is the solution. Short term stopgap is the answer. And ideally, Patrick AND Frost are more than ready to start next season....with this stopgap, a luxury.

 

[TCTC]

And the last TWO years, Nelson is 63rd in ES goals...behind Couts, JVR, Giroux and Konecny from the Flyers. I think that is a truer representation of him.

I want a #2C, but unlike you, don't think signing a long term 5-8 million C is the solution. Short term stopgap is the answer. And ideally, Patrick AND Frost are more than ready to start next season....with this stopgap an a luxury.

Good FA centers won't sign short term contracts though. You'd have to trade for one.

 

[Magua]

I find it curious how Brock Nelson being a 2C (on a Cup contender yet -- or might as well punt the season!) is some foregone conclusion. Because of 1 season, where every season prior he was a 3C caliber player? While I'm not saying I wouldn't want the right upgrade, Nolan Patrick is 7 years younger and half his career has been at a ~50 point pace, but we're only allowed to criticize him.

I also didn't realize goals was the best metric for evaluating a center. For the talk of defensive play, Nelson has been a -2 relxGF% play over that same time span. He'll likely be the definition of UFA overpay.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

And the last TWO years, Nelson is 63rd in ES goals...behind Couts, JVR, Giroux and Konecny from the Flyers. I think that is a truer representation of him.

I want a #2C, but unlike you, don't think signing a long term 5-8 million C is the solution. Short term stopgap is the answer. And ideally, Patrick AND Frost are more than ready to start next season....with this stopgap, a luxury.

63rd in ES goals over the last 2 seasons in the entire NHL is a negative to you? He’s 1 ESG behind Hertl, tied with Kessel & Tkachuk, 1 ahead of Stamkos & Marner; only 2 behind Laine, Barkov, Huberdeau & Schiefele .... & You’re implying that’s a NEGATIVE?

To me it shows you don’t realize how good he’s been, & don’t want to change your existing opinion. You also seem to imply he’s unreliable, when he’s scored 20+ goals in 4 of the last 5 seasons, with the only exception being 19, & with 25 this year (& 3 in 5 playoff games). And he’s 27.

Come on.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

This place is really something.

I agree. Such overrating of players who haven’t done anything yet in the NHL, & ignoring of the actual depth on rival teams.

 

[Tripod]

63rd in ES goals over the last 2 seasons in the entire NHL is a negative to you? He’s 1 ESG behind Hertl, tied with Kessel & Tkachuk, 1 ahead of Stamkos & Marner; only 2 behind Laine, Barkov, Huberdeau & Schiefele .... & You’re implying that’s a NEGATIVE?

To me it shows you don’t realize how good he’s been, & don’t want to change your existing opinion. You also seem to imply he’s unreliable, when he’s scored 20+ goals in 4 of the last 5 seasons, with the only exception being 19, & with 25 this year (& 3 in 5 playoff games). And he’s 27.

Come on.

Did I say it was a negative? No. I was giving a more recent account of where he REALLY slots, not an inflated one like yourself.

I would not commit 5+ million for 4-5 years for a guy coming off a career year. One year ago, he had 27 ES points. That's less than Laughton and Patrick this year.

The cost vs reward is just not there for him.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Did I say it was a negative? No. I was giving a more recent account of where he REALLY slots, not an inflated one like yourself.

I would not commit 5+ million for 4-5 years for a guy coming off a career year. One year ago, he had 27 ES points. That's less than Laughton and Patrick this year.

The cost vs reward is just not there for him.

He’s been among the most consistent goal scoring centers in the league for 5 years. Even going by the last 2 years, which included his “down” year of 19 goals, he ranks very well. And stands to be underpaid based on his company over the heralded “large sample size.”

Where he “really slots” is at 2C. At least more than competently until Patrick or Frost takes it — which they may or may not. And when they do he goes to 3C or W. Again, he’s one of 3 options. Just one that’s getting unfairly rated.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Did I say it was a negative? No. I was giving a more recent account of where he REALLY slots, not an inflated one like yourself.

What did I misrepresent? Nothing. If you don’t think the FACT that Nelson is 37th in ES goals the last 5 years is valid, & think that he’s 63rd the last 2 years (right with Stamkos, Laine, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, Schiefele, Barkov) is some kind of win for you that I’m overrating him, well, I think you’re sadly grasping at straws & actually proved my point that he’s underrated. We could use a C who could REALLY score 37 ESG in 2 years.

 

[deadhead]

However, if the Flyers don’t add a 2nd line caliber C, there’s no point even playing next season.

So how did they garner 98 points in 2017-18 with subpar goalie play and Filppula as their 2C?
Scoring is not the issue with our forwards.
Even playoff teams rarely have 6 forwards with 40+ ES points:

Flyers: Giroux (61), Couts (58), Voracek (48), TK (41), JVR (35 in 66g), Lindblom (30), Laughton (30), Patrick (29)
Teams in bold can match or exceed Flyers scoring at forward

Caps: Ovechkin (61), Backstrom (49), Kuznetsov (49), Connolly (44), Vrana (43), Oshie (39)
NYI: Barzal (44), Nelson (44), Bailey (41), Lee (35), Eberle (30), Cizikas (30), Filppula (30)
Pens: Crosby (69), Guentzel (64), Kessel (46), Hornqvist (39), Rust (31)
Car: Aho (54), Teravainen (47), Williams (39), Neiderreiter (38), Svechnikov (32), Ferland (27), Staal (26 in 50g)
CBJ: Panarin (69), Dubois (52), Atkinson (51), Anderson (37), Jenner (34), Bjorkstrand (33), Foligno (29)
TB: Kucherov (80), Point (57), Stamkos (56), Johnson (38), Guorde (37), Killorn (33), Cirelli (32)
BOS: Marchand (59), Krejci (57) Pastrnak (48), Bergeron (45), DeBrusk (31 in 68g), Heinen (27), Kuraly (21)
NASH: Johansen (46), Arvidsson (41), Forsberg (38), Bonino (31), Smith (30)
STL: ROR (52), Tarasenko (46), Schenn (42), Perron (32), Schwartz (31 in 69g), Bozak (30)
WIN: Scheifele (58), Wheeler (55), Connor (46), Little (32), Ehlers (30), Laine (27)
DAL: Seguin (53), Radulov (49), Benn (42), Faksa (23), Janmark (23)
COL: McKinnon (62), Rantanen (54), Landeskog (48), Soderberg (36), Kerfoot (26), Calvert (22)
CAL: Gaudreau (72), Monahan (59), Tkachuk (53), Lindholm (48), Backlund (43), Kurlik (32), Ryan (27)
SJ: Hertl (57), Meier (55), Couture (50), Kane (43), Pavelski (42), Labanc (36), Thornton (36), Donskoi (34)
VGK: Stone (52), Tuch (46), Marchessault (43), Karlsson (39), Stastny (36 in 50g), Smith (35), Eakin (34), Pacioretty (32 in 66g), Haula (6 in 15g)

 

[Ghosts Beer]

So how did they garner 98 points in 2017-18 with subpar goalie play and Filppula as their 2C?
Scoring is not the issue with our forwards.
Even playoff teams rarely have 6 forwards with 40+ ES points:

Flyers: Giroux (61), Couts (58), Voracek (48), TK (41), JVR (35 in 66g), Lindblom (30), Laughton (30), Patrick (29)
Teams in bold can match or exceed Flyers scoring at forward

Caps: Ovechkin (61), Backstrom (49), Kuznetsov (49), Connolly (44), Vrana (43), Oshie (39)
NYI: Barzal (44), Nelson (44), Bailey (41), Lee (35), Eberle (30), Cizikas (30), Filppula (30)
Pens: Crosby (69), Guentzel (64), Kessel (46), Hornqvist (39), Rust (31)
Car: Aho (54), Teravainen (47), Williams (39), Neiderreiter (38), Svechnikov (32), Ferland (27), Staal (26 in 50g)
CBJ: Panarin (69), Dubois (52), Atkinson (51), Anderson (37), Jenner (34), Bjorkstrand (33), Foligno (29)
TB: Kucherov (80), Point (57), Stamkos (56), Johnson (38), Guorde (37), Killorn (33), Cirelli (32)
BOS: Marchand (59), Krejci (57) Pastrnak (48), Bergeron (45), DeBrusk (31 in 68g), Heinen (27), Kuraly (21)
NASH: Johansen (46), Arvidsson (41), Forsberg (38), Bonino (31), Smith (30)
STL: ROR (52), Tarasenko (46), Schenn (42), Perron (32), Schwartz (31 in 69g), Bozak (30)
WIN: Scheifele (58), Wheeler (55), Connor (46), Little (32), Ehlers (30), Laine (27)
DAL: Seguin (53), Radulov (49), Benn (42), Faksa (23), Janmark (23)
COL: McKinnon (62), Rantanen (54), Landeskog (48), Soderberg (36), Kerfoot (26), Calvert (22)
CAL: Gaudreau (72), Monahan (59), Tkachuk (53), Lindholm (48), Backlund (43), Kurlik (32), Ryan (27)
SJ: Hertl (57), Meier (55), Couture (50), Kane (43), Pavelski (42), Labanc (36), Thornton (36), Donskoi (34)
VGK: Stone (52), Tuch (46), Marchessault (43), Karlsson (39), Stastny (36 in 50g), Smith (35), Eakin (34), Pacioretty (32 in 66g), Haula (6 in 15g)

You expect G & V to repeat their impact from two seasons ago, now that they’re 32 & 30? With the acknowledgment that the young guys need more years to even see if they’re Cup caliber??? Something doesn’t match.

 

[baudib1]

Word is that Fletcher actually talked Homer and Scott down from making major moves immediately. So that's encouraging.

Still, I enter this offseason with a lot of trepidation. I'm not a fan of making a major move for a 2C and not really a fan of making a big move for Trouba.

 

[Tripod]

What did I misrepresent? Nothing. If you don’t think the FACT that Nelson is 37th in ES goals the last 5 years is valid, & think that he’s 63rd the last 2 years (right with Stamkos, Laine, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, Schiefele, Barkov) is some kind of win for you that I’m overrating him, well, I think you’re sadly grasping at straws & actually proved my point that he’s underrated. We could use a C who could REALLY score 37 ESG in 2 years.

I didn't say you misrepresented anything. Using the 5 years is too big a sample size as it eliminates a bunch players who have just started their career the last few years. The last 2 years is a truer indication. I am not looking for a "win". I am giving a more accurate picture of the guy you are getting.

Last 2 years, Couts is a 76 point guy. The last 5 years, a 52 point guy. Which is the truer representation of what he is?

Again, we can agree to disagree on this. I would not tie up 5 million for 4-5 years on him. Or Hayes.

 

[deadhead]

You expect G & V to repeat their impact from two seasons ago, now that they’re 32 & 30? With the acknowledgment that the young guys need more years to even see if they’re Cup caliber??? Something doesn’t match.

G is probably not going to get 60+ ES points again, but I'd be more than happy with a couple 50+ point seasons followed by 40+ in a 2nd/3rd line role at 34-35. Couts should remain in the 50 point range the next few years.
Voracek is a 40+ point 2RW.
JVR should be 40+, TK 40+, Lindblom pushing 40 coming off that second half performance and his SHL history
That's 6 guys before you get production from Patrick and Frost. Or a top scoring 4th line with Laughton and Hartman.
By spring, you may be getting help from Farabee and Rubtsov/Kase/Ratcliffe.
Forward scoring simply isn't an issue for this team now or going forward, forward defense, that's another issue.

The big jump is going to come as Sanheim emerges as an elite scoring defender, Myers gets comfortable, and Provorov integrates both aspects of his game.

Combine forward depth with 4 mobile defensemen with offensive skills, and AV aggressive scheme, and scoring goals will not be a problem

 

[deadhead]

Nelson would be a good add if he wasn't going to get paid off a career year, buyer beware with players having career years in contract years. Especially a player with a reputation for less than consistent effort.
Last five years:
xGF .290, -.053, -.078, -.161, .060
xGA .067, .152, .077, .037, -.089
GAR EV 4.5, 2.0, 2.6, 2.4, 4.6
GAR PP 2.1, -1.3, 1.3, -0.3, -1.0
GAR SH -1.0, 0.1, 0.6, -0.6, -0.3
GAR PEN 2.8, 1.3, 2.3, 0.0, 0.9

His EV offense has been meh until this season, where it's decent but not special.
His defense has been below average until this season, you have to suspect that Trotz's coaching - Trotz pushed him to be more physical. Is it sustainable?
Nelson offers little on special teams.
He's a 3C who'll give you maybe one 2C season on a 5 year deal - pay him a 2C rate and you'll be sorely disappointed.
He's not a good possession guy or great playmaker, he does have an above average shot which makes him a good candidate to move to wing.

 

[TheKingPin]

We obviously won't be the only team interested in him, but man, if Fletcher doesn't try everything to get him on this team...

Thinking us and DET at least. They will be looking for D more. Not sure if the Avs are a good fit considering. Florida should be out. Don’t think Nashville can afford it. Maybe we are favorite in getting Duchene?

 

[Tripod]

Thinking us and DET at least. They will be looking for D more. Not sure if the Avs are a good fit considering. Florida should be out. Don’t think Nashville can afford it. Maybe we are favorite in getting Duchene?

Columbus could re-sign him.

 

[TCTC]

Thinking us and DET at least. They will be looking for D more. Not sure if the Avs are a good fit considering. Florida should be out. Don’t think Nashville can afford it. Maybe we are favorite in getting Duchene?

Montreal is also a team that's probably going to go hard after him.

 

[baudib1]

I really want a trade with Minnesota to happen.

 

[deadhead]

Columbus could re-sign him.

Columbus almost have to resign him or start a serious rebuild if they lose Panarin and Bob.
Problem with rebuilding:
McQuaid cost 2019 4th, 7th
Dzingel cost DuClair, 2020 2nd, 2021 2nd
Duchene cost 2019 1st (2020 1st if he resigns)
Cole (2018) cost 2020 3rd