Americanadian
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Datsyuk has won a cup and no longer wanted to play in the league.
I said that it makes sense for Ottawa in the same way that it made sense for Arizona.
Datsyuk has won a cup and no longer wanted to play in the league.
Not winning anything with that defenceOk. Just want to post my thoughts on how I think the off-season will go down. Sorry for the long post. So I think, the way the leafs will try to keep all of their big ticket players will be to ensure that we have enough cheap (i.e. close to league minimum, ELC), players to surround them with. It’ll be a highly-paid core, with mostly cheap guys in between. That’s the way it needs to be done in order to keep this together. If you can keep a core of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Reilly, Dermott, Muzzin, Andersen (plus Liljegren and Sandin), that’s the core you build around. You can make a contender by filling around the edges of that roster.
I understand people are made about the Matthews and Nylander contracts, which are perceived as over-payments, and for sure you prefer a discount, but I’d rather slightly over-pay and retain core than middling players (i.e. Okposo, Lucic). At the beginning of the year most people thought 8x11M was a fair contract for Matthews, and the Pastrank Deal (6x6.66M) was a baseline for Willy. So for Willy, our deal exceeded Pastrnaks by 0.24M. Matthews deal was about 0.6M above what we expected, and the term was less. But in terms of cap it wasn’t way higher than we expected. This year was tough, so I think we’re all being a little too sensitive towards anything that’s not 100% ideal.
In terms of next year, Dubas has already started locking up cheap talent (Petan, Moore, Rosen) that probably has more to offer than we’ve seen in the past.
I also think the Leafs cap problems have been vastly overstated. First, off after this year everything opens up (due to Marleau’s contract ending), but even this year. I went on cap friendly to the GM mode and you can make a cap compliant team based on a projected 83M cap with very simple moves.
1. Trade Connor Brown for picks
2. Sign Marner to 9.5M x 8 years (should be in this ball park realistically based on his comparables, stone, kucherov).
3. Sign Kapanen to 2.5M x 2 years
4. Sign Johnsson to 3M x 3 years.
5. Hainsey and Gardiner walk.
6. Horton and Dermott on LTIR.
This results in you having a team as below.
Zack Hyman - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Trevor Moore - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Andreas Johnsson - Nazem Kadri - Kasperi Kapanen
Patrick Marleau - Frederik Gauthier - Nick Petan
Morgan Reilly - Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Muzzin - Justin Holl
Calle Rosen - Timothy Lijegren
Frederik Andersen
Garrett Sparks
I know some people will say that the RFA signing are too low and unrealistic. I think if the players are being reasonable that those are fair deals. However, for this team to be cap compliant all I have done is move Brown. I haven’t even had to move one of Marleau or Zaitsev. If you just move on of them, the resulting cap space makes it easy to fit slightly above the costs I’ve attributed to the RFAs. Or you could move Hyman if you really wanted to. Or trade one of Kapanen/Johnsson (not both). Anyway, the point of this was to show that the situation is not nearly as dire as the mainstream media would have you believe, and I’m sure the much smarter team in Leafs Management can be much more creative to improve the team.
Anyway, I’ll end this with a couple of predictions for what I think will happen in the off-season. These will be different than the team I posted above. The team was just to show that this can be done, easier than most think.
1. Zaitsev traded. I’m not sure what for, but I think this will happen. It makes the most sense. Then by the year after next we open up 10+M between him and Marleau. Even if we have to trade like a 2nd, I think it’s worth it. We can make that value up with free agent signings (NCAA, CHL, Europe) and undrafted players.
2. Connor Brown traded for picks/players. Not sure of the deal, but I’d bet on the player coming back being a prospect that doesn’t count against the cap, or just picks. This is the easiest way to clear space. Maybe like a 3rd or 4th (hopefully a 2nd).
3. Hainsey walks (unless he signs close to a league min deal). I still think Dubas will let him go to mould the defence into a more mobile corps.
4. Marner signs a vanity contract with us for 10.16M x 8 years (I know this is different than the team above, but I’m just guessing here).
5. One of Johnsson/Kapanen traded. The other kept, Bracco makes the team to replace one of them.
6. In general I think we will invest heavily in scouting for NCAA, CHL, and European leagues. We have less picks right now, and might have to pay more to get rid of bad contracts (i.e. Zaitsev) but we can use our scouting and development to regain that value if we hit on players like Trevor Moore as unsigned players that we pick up. I think the leafs management will try this route.
7. Both assistant coaches replaced (possibly Keefe, although I’m not in love with this idea. I love Sheldon but this would create a toxic work environment).
8. The team will adopt a new structure for the coming season, specifically new breakout system, new lines, and usage (TOI increased for stars, and more PP1 time). The new schemes will be more in line with puck possession type teams that Dubas is known to favor.
9. Sparks will be given a chance but a more established back-up will be brought in to challenge him (unlike this year).
I’m looking forward to see how the off-season turns out, and I think next year will be a lot more fun as all main contracts will be locked up, and we’ll be able to focus on the season. I know this year it was tough to watch a bunch of guys score and then cringe at the thought of their contracts. Let me know what other people think. I’m not 100% sure on any of this, but I think it’ll be fun to discuss. I just wanted to add some optimism to the negativity that I see towards the team everywhere.
Also, let me know if I put this in the wrong place, or feel free to move it to the correct place.
Looking forward to hearing what other people think.
Go Leafs Go
Ok. Just want to post my thoughts on how I think the off-season will go down. Sorry for the long post. So I think, the way the leafs will try to keep all of their big ticket players will be to ensure that we have enough cheap (i.e. close to league minimum, ELC), players to surround them with. It’ll be a highly-paid core, with mostly cheap guys in between. That’s the way it needs to be done in order to keep this together. If you can keep a core of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Reilly, Dermott, Muzzin, Andersen (plus Liljegren and Sandin), that’s the core you build around. You can make a contender by filling around the edges of that roster.
I understand people are made about the Matthews and Nylander contracts, which are perceived as over-payments, and for sure you prefer a discount, but I’d rather slightly over-pay and retain core than middling players (i.e. Okposo, Lucic). At the beginning of the year most people thought 8x11M was a fair contract for Matthews, and the Pastrank Deal (6x6.66M) was a baseline for Willy. So for Willy, our deal exceeded Pastrnaks by 0.24M. Matthews deal was about 0.6M above what we expected, and the term was less. But in terms of cap it wasn’t way higher than we expected. This year was tough, so I think we’re all being a little too sensitive towards anything that’s not 100% ideal.
In terms of next year, Dubas has already started locking up cheap talent (Petan, Moore, Rosen) that probably has more to offer than we’ve seen in the past.
I also think the Leafs cap problems have been vastly overstated. First, off after this year everything opens up (due to Marleau’s contract ending), but even this year. I went on cap friendly to the GM mode and you can make a cap compliant team based on a projected 83M cap with very simple moves.
1. Trade Connor Brown for picks
2. Sign Marner to 9.5M x 8 years (should be in this ball park realistically based on his comparables, stone, kucherov).
3. Sign Kapanen to 2.5M x 2 years
4. Sign Johnsson to 3M x 3 years.
5. Hainsey and Gardiner walk.
6. Horton and Dermott on LTIR.
This results in you having a team as below.
Zack Hyman - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Trevor Moore - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Andreas Johnsson - Nazem Kadri - Kasperi Kapanen
Patrick Marleau - Frederik Gauthier - Nick Petan
Morgan Reilly - Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Muzzin - Justin Holl
Calle Rosen - Timothy Lijegren
Frederik Andersen
Garrett Sparks
I know some people will say that the RFA signing are too low and unrealistic. I think if the players are being reasonable that those are fair deals. However, for this team to be cap compliant all I have done is move Brown. I haven’t even had to move one of Marleau or Zaitsev. If you just move on of them, the resulting cap space makes it easy to fit slightly above the costs I’ve attributed to the RFAs. Or you could move Hyman if you really wanted to. Or trade one of Kapanen/Johnsson (not both). Anyway, the point of this was to show that the situation is not nearly as dire as the mainstream media would have you believe, and I’m sure the much smarter team in Leafs Management can be much more creative to improve the team.
Anyway, I’ll end this with a couple of predictions for what I think will happen in the off-season. These will be different than the team I posted above. The team was just to show that this can be done, easier than most think.
1. Zaitsev traded. I’m not sure what for, but I think this will happen. It makes the most sense. Then by the year after next we open up 10+M between him and Marleau. Even if we have to trade like a 2nd, I think it’s worth it. We can make that value up with free agent signings (NCAA, CHL, Europe) and undrafted players.
2. Connor Brown traded for picks/players. Not sure of the deal, but I’d bet on the player coming back being a prospect that doesn’t count against the cap, or just picks. This is the easiest way to clear space. Maybe like a 3rd or 4th (hopefully a 2nd).
3. Hainsey walks (unless he signs close to a league min deal). I still think Dubas will let him go to mould the defence into a more mobile corps.
4. Marner signs a vanity contract with us for 10.16M x 8 years (I know this is different than the team above, but I’m just guessing here).
5. One of Johnsson/Kapanen traded. The other kept, Bracco makes the team to replace one of them.
6. In general I think we will invest heavily in scouting for NCAA, CHL, and European leagues. We have less picks right now, and might have to pay more to get rid of bad contracts (i.e. Zaitsev) but we can use our scouting and development to regain that value if we hit on players like Trevor Moore as unsigned players that we pick up. I think the leafs management will try this route.
7. Both assistant coaches replaced (possibly Keefe, although I’m not in love with this idea. I love Sheldon but this would create a toxic work environment).
8. The team will adopt a new structure for the coming season, specifically new breakout system, new lines, and usage (TOI increased for stars, and more PP1 time). The new schemes will be more in line with puck possession type teams that Dubas is known to favor.
9. Sparks will be given a chance but a more established back-up will be brought in to challenge him (unlike this year).
I’m looking forward to see how the off-season turns out, and I think next year will be a lot more fun as all main contracts will be locked up, and we’ll be able to focus on the season. I know this year it was tough to watch a bunch of guys score and then cringe at the thought of their contracts. Let me know what other people think. I’m not 100% sure on any of this, but I think it’ll be fun to discuss. I just wanted to add some optimism to the negativity that I see towards the team everywhere.
Also, let me know if I put this in the wrong place, or feel free to move it to the correct place.
Looking forward to hearing what other people think.
Go Leafs Go
I see what your saying. Something creative has to happen.
I think I your scenario you’d have a cap hit of 81.3 million which is ok, however, if I understand correctly, the day you put the two players on LTIR that’s your cap ceiling for the season. They also have to have some room for day to day injuries and call ups.
I can’t see any scenario that doesn’t involve trading away one or more of Marleau, Zaitsev or Nylander in addition to Brown.
Trade or sign two RHD, one for Reilly and one for Muzzin.
Resign Hainsey to man RHD spot on bottom pairing with Dermott (when he returns) or Rosen in short term.
Trade Brown (don't need him we have Moore that will be just as good if not better for half the price)
Trade Zaitsev (has re-couped his value with a strong playoffs) its the time to rid yourself of the long contract for cap purposes moving forward
Trade Marleau if you can. Do something, anything to get him off the books.
Trade one of Johnsson/Kapanen to acquire one of the RHD. With Koroshov, Mikheyev and Bracco waiting in the wings one of them are expendable when the others will be making much less then they want.
My guess is this will be a busy off season.
Trade or sign two RHD, one for Reilly and one for Muzzin.
Resign Hainsey to man RHD spot on bottom pairing with Dermott (when he returns) or Rosen in short term.
Trade Brown (don't need him we have Moore that will be just as good if not better for half the price)
Trade Zaitsev (has re-couped his value with a strong playoffs) its the time to rid yourself of the long contract for cap purposes moving forward
Trade Marleau if you can. Do something, anything to get him off the books.
Trade one of Johnsson/Kapanen to acquire one of the RHD. With Koroshov, Mikheyev and Bracco waiting in the wings one of them are expendable when the others will be making much less then they want.
My guess is this will be a busy off season.
I said that it makes sense for Ottawa in the same way that it made sense for Arizona.
Absolutely......maybe top of the list?
I think there will be a blockbuster and the Leafs will trade a core piece, like Nylander ( considering him aa core for demo purposes only), and some of those assets they get could be used to move Marleau...13 million in cap space is a valuable asset.
It would make sense for the same financial reasons the Datsyuk made sense for Arizona.Arizona only acquired the Datsyuk contract though. He never played for them. Your scenario had Marleau playing for Ottawa, which is potentially both a different type of trade and also a different circumstance of Marleau waiving his NMC for.
It would make sense for the same financial reasons the Datsyuk made sense for Arizona.
Only one it needs to make sense to is Marleau and it doesn't appear to.I said that it makes sense for Ottawa in the same way that it made sense for Arizona.
Could not have said it better. My thoughts entirely. If we do this then next year we got a real chance at Stanley.Trade or sign two RHD, one for Reilly and one for Muzzin.
Resign Hainsey to man RHD spot on bottom pairing with Dermott (when he returns) or Rosen in short term.
Trade Brown (don't need him we have Moore that will be just as good if not better for half the price)
Trade Zaitsev (has re-couped his value with a strong playoffs) its the time to rid yourself of the long contract for cap purposes moving forward
Trade Marleau if you can. Do something, anything to get him off the books.
Trade one of Johnsson/Kapanen to acquire one of the RHD. With Koroshov, Mikheyev and Bracco waiting in the wings one of them are expendable when the others will be making much less then they want.
My guess is this will be a busy off season.
It needs to make sense for a team to take him on.Only one it needs to make sense to is Marleau and it doesn't appear to.
Doesn't matter if he won't waive his NMC.It needs to make sense for a team to take him on.
Potential Free Agent Targets: Tyler Myers, Ben Lovejoy
Best Fit: Tyler Myers would immediately address the quality and quantity of the Leafs’ blue line. He is also the right-handed shot that Mike Babcock craves.
Outlook: Sorry, Yogi Berra, but geez that was déjà vu all over again for the Maple Leafs, with another loss to the Bruins in a seven-game series. More problematic for GM Kyle Dubas is that life becomes exponentially more difficult in trying to get this team over the playoff hump and to a point where they might win a playoff round for the first time since 2004. He’ll likely part ways with Jake Gardiner, whose absence as a puck-mover will be felt in ways fans might not understand. Ron Hainsey, 38, will go, too, unless he takes a discount as an aging unrestricted free agent, and the team might walk away from restricted free agent Igor Ozhiganov.
Even if Rasmus Sandin and Calle Rosen push for playing time, both are left-handed shots. That means Dubas will be looking to upgrade the blue line and will need to look for some right-handed help a la Tyler Myers or Jacob Trouba, who is a restricted free agent. But finding competent help outside the organization might be a non-starter given the cap constraints. No question Dubas’ top priority is signing restricted free agent Mitch Marner as he will command a payday likely north of $9 million annually. Everything else will flow from how the Marner deal looks.
Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson are also due new contracts as restricted free agents. If Dubas is going to keep those assets, is it possible he has to renege on his promise to not trade William Nylander? It’s a popular narrative in Toronto, but it’s doubtful that Dubas goes down that road if for no other reason than it hampers his credibility internally and in the public. Another factor when considering the restricted free agents that Dubas must juggle is the potential for someone, let’s say former Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello now with the Islanders, to deliver an offer sheet that would disrupt the Leafs’ plans.
The bottom line is that not everyone gets to stay in Leafland, especially up front. So, who goes? Maybe it’s Nazem Kadri, who has a limited no-trade clause. But can you afford to lose him given how his absence through suspension for the final five games of the Boston series hurt the Leafs? But can you afford to keep a player who cannot control his emotions and has been suspended two playoff years in a row? Tough call. The Nikita Zaitsev contract, which carries a $4.5 million cap hit through 2023-24, is a millstone of a contract that is unlikely to go anywhere without it costing the team other assets. Patrick Marleau doesn’t fit, and finding a team to take the veteran’s $6.25 million will also cost assets or cap space in terms of salary retention, but it needs to be done — and that’s assuming Marleau would agree to waive his no-move clause.