I may be in the minority. But this Red Wing fan believes Detroit is positioned pretty well to be competitive again in 2-3 years (i.e. starting in 20-21). A few down years is the price you pay for dominating the league for almost 3 decades: 25 straight years in the playoffs; 4 Stanley Cups; 6 Presidents Trophies, yada-yada-yada...
But, if you're looking for a firesale at the end of the year, you're actually pretty late to the party. It's been going on for a few years already. As soon as they realized the streak was over (i.e Datsyuk went home to be with his family) they started the sale. When you look, you'll see that many assets have already been moved and there are only a few left.
One of the first moves was the Pavel Datsyuk/Jakob Chykrun trade. Detroit traded down from #16 to #20, and picked up an extra second-rounder. They also gained $7.5 million in cap space. At #20 they selected Cholowski. With the extra 2nd-rounder they acquired Filip Hronek. One can also argue that they were able to sign Frans Neilsen and Tomas Vanek with the extra $7.5 million cap space. Nielsen declined relatively quickly, but that was unexpected. He'd been a reliable 50-60 point, 2C for years. He's still a serviceable 3C on a non-playoff team, a good leader, and is a decent penalty-killer. He just earns too much. But who cares? The extra cap-space right now wouldn't fix anything anyway. So, why complain? At the trade deadline, the Wings turned around and traded Tomas Vanek for a 3rd-round pick, plus Dylan McIlrath. McIlrath has been an important player and leader for Grand Rapids (AHL) ever since. Detroit selected Kasper Kotkansalo with the third-round pick they acquired for Vanek. Kotkansalo is a borderline NHL prospect. So, Detroit essentially traded Jakob Chykrun for Chowlowski (maybe #2/#3 upside), Hronek (#3/#4 who can run the PP), Nielsen (3-4C for several years), Kotkansalo (stay-at-home responsible #5/#6 upside), and McIlrath. That's a lot of organizational assets for one player; granted one potentially very good player.
In another deal, Detroit traded Tomas Jurco for a 3rd round pick. That pick turned into Keith Petruzzelli, who is a decent goalie prospect (at least 4-5 years away).
They also traded Brendan Smith for a 2nd and 3rd. The 3rd turned into Zach Gallant (probably won't make NHL). But the 2nd-rounder turned into Jonatan Berggren. Berggren could be a steal and an important cog in the 21-22 Red Wings (top-6 or -9 scoring winger with speed, who is difficult to play against).
They signed Joe Hicketts and Libor Sulak, who were undrafted. Despite all the naysayers, Hicketts is already a solid #6/#7 energy guy that many teams would love on their team. Sulak was surprisingly good in the preseason and during his short stint with the Wings to start the season. He could turn into a solid a #5/#6 with speed, good first pass, and an edge. Still people will complain because they're not #1s. But teams actually need #5s, #6s and #7s. Hicketts and Sulak pretty much fit that bill.
Later they traded Riley Sheahan and a 2018 5th... for a 2018 3rd and Scott Wilson. The 3rd turned into Jesper Eliasson, another decent goalie prospect. Of course, we won't know for at least 3-5 years. Scott Wilson was traded to Buffalo for a 2019 5th rounder. We'll see what comes of that pick.
Then they traded Tomas Tatar at the deadline last year for a 2018 1st, 2019 2nd, and 2021 3rd. They used the 2018 1st to select Joe Veleno. Plus, the 2019 2nd-rounder they picked up originally belonged to the NY Islanders. Not to be overly critical of the Islanders, but my guess is that pick will end up being a top-40 selection. Maybe even a top-35 or -36 pick.
They've also made a couple minor trades: Tom McCollum turned into Otto Kivenmaki; Jakub Kindl turned into Reily Webb. It's unlikely anything will come of either of those trades. But who knows? I read something in The Athletic (I think) about Kivenmaki turning some heads at a recent tournament. But he is tiny.
So, for those looking for a firesale, the firesale has been going on for a couple years now. As with most sales, the shelves are getting a little sparse. They still have Gus Nyquist who will produce a nice return. Howard, Kronwall, Jensen, and maybe Trevor Daley may generate some interest. Daley is an interesting option because he'll have a year left on his contract, which will increase his value like it did with Tatar. But even if they don't trade anybody except Nyquist, the others will be gone soon along with their contracts.
I doubt they Trade Vanek because he doesn't want to move his family any more at the trade deadline... And yes... Ken Holland believes strongly in loyalty. Love it or hate it, it's an important part of the Red Wing culture. It's part of the reason why so many great players came to Detroit over the past couple decades.
Green may be traded at the deadline next year.
A playoff team might have interest in Helm, Glendenning, Abdelkader or Dekeyser as they get closer to the end of their contracts. Until then, they can plug holes in the lineup and provide leadership. Again, who cares about their contracts now? The Wings will miss the playoffs for at least two more seasons. They're not going to need large sums of money to pay any premier free agents for a couple years. If they make a trade, they can dump salary then.
To summarize, after being in the playoffs for 25 consecutive years and not picking in the top 10 for decades, they've missed the playoffs for 2 years. Pavel Datsyuk's return to Russia probably triggered the end of the playoff streak. But his trade also started the rebuild and the firesale. Since that trade, the Wings have been selling assets: Datsyuk/Chykrun, Brendan Smith, Tomas Jurco, Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar. In return, they've already acquired likely NHL'ers Dennis Cholowski, Filip Hronek, Jonatan Berggren, and Joe Veleno. Plus, they've drafted a couple other potential NHL'ers from the picks acquired in the trades in Kasper Kotkansalo, Keith Petruzzelli and Jesper Eliasson. The Tatar trade still has two picks to go, including a likely top-40 2019 2nd-rounder and a 2021 3rd rounder. The Scott Wilson trade also produced a 2019 5th. From my perspective, the firesale has already been pretty darn productive.
Also, since the sale started, they've used their 2017 and 2018 1st's and 2nd's to acquire:
* 2017 1st: Michael Rasmussen (likely top-6 forward; needs to grow into his 6'6" frame)
* 2017 2nd: Gustav Lindstrom (upside RH top-4 puck-moving D)
* 2018 1st: Filip Zadina (top-line scoring RW, potential star)
* 2018 2nd: Jared McIssac (upside LH, top-4, puck-moving D, with an edge)
This year, they already have 3 likely top-40 picks and are in the race for the highest-odds for the #1 overall selection. Whatever happens in the lottery, they're likely to pick top 5. With that pick, they will almost certainly select a 1C. This draft is loaded with them. It's a good year to bottom-out. The pick could be Jack Hughes, Kirby Dach, or Dylan Cozens. They could also select Kaapo Kaako, in which case they'd probably eventually move Rasmussen to center (his natural position). In any case, the likely top-5 selection in 2019 will round-out their long-term top-9 and make them formidable in 3 seasons, or so.
They also have their own 2nd rounder this year (likely top-35, maybe 32) and the Islanders 2nd (likely top-40). Depending on who falls this year, it's likely they will select 1 or 2 Ds in the 32-40 range, or perhaps a D and Spencer Night, if he somehow slips to the second round. Plus, they're very likely to trade Nyquist and will get at least a 2nd-rounder... maybe a late first... If they get a late first, they'll be set up for another draft like they had in 2018 (4 picks in the top 36, which yielded Zadina, Veleno, Berggren and McIsaac).
They're also unlikely to make the playoffs next year and will have another lottery pick in the 2020 draft. Green, Daley and Ericksson are all UFAs at the end of next season (19-20) and will bring more picks in 2020, plus free up $12.5 million in cap space. Sulak, Hronek, Saarijarvi, Hicketts, and perhaps one of McIsaac or Lindstrom will be competing to replace them.
If it all works out (which it won't)... even without any trades, UFAs, or the emergence of a surprise late round pick, the 21-22 lineup could already look something like:
Rasmussen, Hughes/Kaako/Dach/Cozens, Zadina
Bertuzzi, Larkin, Mantha
Athanisiou, Veleno, Berggren (talking about speed)
Svechnikov, De La Rose/Ehn/Turgeon, Givani Smith
Cholowski, a trade/UFA/pick
McIsaac, Hronek
Sulak, Lindstrom
Hicketts
With the exception of possible trades or UFA signing for #1D and a goalie, Mantha, Anthanasiou and Sulak will be the oldest at 27 years old.
Also in the mix at D: Saarijaarvi, Regula and Kotkansolo, plus 1 or 2 high 2019 2nd-round picks (maybe 2 of Bjornfot, Ryan Johnson, Kokkanen, Korczak, or someone who settles into the 32-40 range by draft day?). Hakan Andersson also thinks Malte Setkov could be a late bloomer (2017 4th round pick). He's another 6'6" player that may need some time to grow into his body. If Hakan likes him, I like him.
If the Wings get truly lucky, Spencer Night might be in goal. If not, one of Larsson, Eliassson, Petruzzelli, or Van Pottelberghe... all of which have shown some potential... or someone like Taylor Gutthier from the 2019 draft. If not Spencer Night, they will most likely take the trade- or UFA-route for a #1 goalie, until one of the prospects is ready.
That team has:
* Strength down the middle: 1C Hughes/Dach/Cozens; 2C Larkin; 3C Veleno
* 3 scoring lines
* Tons of top-end speed at forward: Larkin, Anthanasiou, Berggren, Veleno, and whichever 1C they draft in 2019 (especially Hughes or Cozens)
* High-end scoring (Zadina, 2019 Pick, Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, Berggren, and maybe 2020 first round pick)
* Net-front specialists: Rasmussen, Bertuzzi
* 6-7 solid, puck-moving D
* And one can hope: Spencer Night in goal.
Unfortunately, they may not have a true #1 D. This year's draft doesn't have many elite D prospects.
There will be a couple legacy players close to the end of their contracts to provide continuity to the Red Wing culture: Abdelkader, Dekeyser, Nielsen. The remaining 'bad' contracts, which everyone whines about, will be gone. The cap will continue to grow, so cap-space will not be an issue. Many of the players will still be in their entry-level contracts or have a bridge contract. Some of the stars (as they emerge) will be locked up long-term (Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, and maybe Zadina and/or their 2019 first). Dylan Larkin will be captain.
With a trade or two, maybe a solid UFA signing... or maybe an unlikely later-round pick emerges ... and this team becomes a team to be reckoned with again.
For all the whining about Ken Holland and the front-office, the future actually looks bright. They've been crafting the new Red Wings for a few years now. They still need some star-power to compete with the best. But Larkin and Zadina may become stars. They'll probably select another star with their 2019 1st... It may even be Jack Hughes. Plus, they'll almost certainly be a lottery team for the 2020 draft, which may produce another high-end prospect or two.
Then you have Mantha and Rasmussen who are giant kids (6'5" and 6'6"). Some question their progress and hence their upside. But I suspect they may take a little longer than some just to give them time to grow into their frames. It's not unreasonable to expect one or both to approach some sort of star-level. And Jonatan Berggren is my dark-horse to become an Arvidsson or Marchand. Veleno could easily become a high-end player.
I don't know what's going to happen on D. But Cholowski, Hronek and McIsaac seem like good bets to become solid top-4s. I also have a good feeling about Lindstrom; but that may be his name speaking to me more than his upside. Maybe one of them will surprise and become a #1-lite.
The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for 2 years. They'll miss them again this year and almost certainly again next year. They may contend for a playoff spot in 20-21, but not the Cup. But for what it's worth, 21-22 is starting to look pretty darn intriguing to me. Maybe the Wings front-office actually knows what they're doing after all? And then there's the wild card. Will Stevie Y will be the new Red Wings GM in a couple years? If he is, he'll have a ton to work with... similar to Tampa when he took over.
