Speculation: What is the best use of our assets this offseason?

[Brian39]

I don't have much interest in Drai without the Oilers retaining a good amount of salary (assuming we're talking about giving up a package like Parayko+). I'm still concerned that he is just a 6-65 point guy if he isn't on a line with McDavid. I know he was dealing with an injury for some of the year, but he didn't look like a 1C to me in any game I watched. He looks great on McDavid's wing and he looked very good when he was centering his own line. But he didn't look like he was worth Parayko, another good asset and an $8.5 mil cap hit.

 

[David Dennison]

I don't recall ROR outright saying he wants out of Buffalo. The only article I remember is him talking about how he lost some of his love for the game from all the losing and how he needs to get the right mindset back.

Well we are working on the assumption that he wants out one way or another. Otherwise, if he doesnt, why would Buffalo trade him? 5 years left on his deal, they aren't in a cap crunch, still relatively young, and they still need to keep Eichel happy. At the very least there would be zero rush to move him this off-season.

 

[simon IC]

I could see Edmonton asking for Parayko+ Kyrou + Fabbri + 1st for Draisaitl + Klefbloom. Blues would be stupid to do that.

I completely agree. It would be a remarkably dumb move. I have zero interest in Klefbom. He is a LD to start with, and I think he would be behind Ed and Dunn on our depth chart. Oiler fans on these boards have not been happy with his defensive play. I think even Bouw and Gunnar might be better, at least defensively. This is why I demanded that Larsson comes back in any trade for Parayko. The more I think about it, however, the more I think there just isn't a deal to be made here. Oh well.

 

[Ranksu]

It's absolutely relevant that the players acquired by "tying Bills hands" have been long term contributors to the team. If Army doesn't make those trades then Bill Armstrong has more chances to make picks. Obviously. However, he also needs to hit on every single one of those picks just to match the return that Army could have gotten (and passed up as to not tie his scout's hands). Unless he turns 2-3 extra picks into a 70 point center and a top 4 D man or two, then we were better of trading them like we did. We don't have zero to show for those picks like you are suggesting. I'm not confident that 2-3 extra first round picks would have led to players who contributed nearly as much as Bouwmeester, Schenn and Shatty have over the last 5 + years and into the future. B Armstrong's hands haven't been tied. He's had the tools to do his job and has done it well. By giving him 'more tools' we would also be requiring that he do significantly better than he has been doing.

You keep saying that B Armstrong is the guy who built this team while ignoring that at least half our core was not B Armstrong. You keep criticizing Army for 'tying the hands of the guy who built the team' and acting like Army is throwing away 1sts. It isn't true. If you want people to stop attacking that part of your argument, stop making an argument that is based in fiction.

As to your claim that you just want to see a couple extra mid round picks, you should be happy with what D Armstrong has done for B Armstrong. We've picked 15 times in the 2nd/3rd round in the last 7 years and 11 of those picks were in the 2nd round. Army has given B Armstrong plenty of tools to build this team in the 2nd round, often giving him picks just outside the 1st round (like I mentioned earlier, Army has traded for the 32nd, 33rd and 35th overall picks in the 7 years we've had B Armstrong as the Director of Scouting). We currently have a pick in every round this draft and have all our picks but the 4th rounder next year. We have picked 14 times in the last 2 years (out of 14 rounds) with 3 first round picks and two 2nd round picks. This narrative that B Armstrong doesn't have enough picks to work with is just not based in reality.

B Armstrong has picked 7 forwards in the 2nd and 3rd rounds since he has been in charge of scouting. The best one of them (until Kyrou proves otherwise) is Jaskin. Jaskin is the only forward B Armstrong has taken outside the 1st round with 100+ career NHL games. This isn't a criticism of B Armstrong. I think he is a top 10 Director of Scouting in the NHL, but the reality is that drafting forwards outside the NHL is wildly unpredictable. You're advocating trading 5 legitimate NHL players for lottery tickets who (best case scenario) are 3 years away from contributing to an NHL team. Everyone around here wants to shed some fat by moving one or two of the guys you listed. There is no argument from anyone on that front. The criticism is that you seem to want to trade all of them and offer no solution to replacing the contribution of 5 players for a team who already had issues scoring goals. You're talking about trading a full offensive line worth of forwards who combined for 43 goals and 103 points. Your proposal would require the Blues to fill about 6 forward vacancies and you want to do it in the name of getting the scouting department some extra mid round picks.

Alex Steen had 46 points this year. Every single forward B Armstrong has selected outside the 1st round as Director of Scouting has combined for 119 career NHL points. If you exclude Jaskin from that group, the number goes down to 58 points. Steen isn't worth the money he makes, but acting like he is useless is insane. Trading him just to get B Armstrong a couple mid round picks is insane. Everyone here wants one or two of the players you listed traded in order to free up cap space and/or roster spots. But guys like Steen/Bergie need to return more than mid round picks to make it worth it. If that's all they return, make the trade in a year or two.

So much talk yet again, but nothing about what I mean by having 1-2 extra picks and flexibility BIll to go players whom potential might not be high right away when drafted, but could be long run better ones then what we've seen Bill forced to draft, BPA or fill the holes of positions.

Idk, maybe its just language barrier problme that I don't understand what I write and can't express myself better way.

 

[TheDizee]

sign JT then trade for tyler johnson.

 

[Brian39]

sign JT then trade for tyler johnson.

Technically it's not really an option to go in that order. Johnson's full NTC kicks in on July 1, which is the earliest we could sign Tavares. If Johnson is moved, it will be before Tavares signs. With that said, these are my 2 favorite targets. My ideal summer is that we trade the 1st and a prospect (besides Thomas/Kyrou) for Johnson at the draft, move Sobotka at the draft for a mid round pick and then sign Tavares on July 1.

Fabbri/Steen-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Johnson
Fabbri/Steen-Thomas-Berglund
Some combo of Barby/Sosh/Brodz/Blais/Thorburn/Jaskin/Foley/Sanford/Kostin/Thompson for the 4th line and 13th/14th forwards.

That's what I would have penciled in at the start of camp and it would be up to young guys to steal that job from Berglund instead of being handed a lineup spot. I don't like Bergy at RW, but he's not in my long term plans if we land 2 more legitimate top 6 players and would essentially be keeping a spot warm until a young guy steals it from him. I'd be comfortable trading Bergy at any time if we land Tavares and Johnson, but I'm not sure if that's realistic until we see some kids earn it in camp. Realistically, Brodz is probably gone in this scenario as adding $15-$17 mil in cap space with TJ/JT is going to force some cap creativity. Brodz would probably be a luxury we can't afford on the 4th line, which isn't the end of the world when you look at all the guys competing for spots at this point.

No matter how it shakes out to make the cap work, adding TJ and JT would put our offense among the best in the league. That would allow us to ice two lines that are 1st line caliber. Even if all of the prospects perform below expectations in camp, having those two top lines allows you to shelter the 3rd line or use it as a shutdown line. You could rely on a Steen/Bergy line as a shutdown group while playing youngsters in heavily sheltered minutes or you could fill your 4th line with PK specialists and roll the 3rd line I listed above in all situations to develop Thomas. Any way you slice it, our offense would be in amazing shape if we land both.

As I've mentioned before, I like going after Johnson in no small part due to the flexibility he affords. If you land Tavares, he could slide into the 3C spot if Thomas isn't as ready as we think and one of Kyrou/Kostin/Thompson shows he is ready for top 9 duties. If you don't land Tavares, acquiring TJ at the draft lets you target RWs and Cs in UFA and trades, rather than focusing on one specific position. It doesn't slam the door shut on Tavares like ROR likely would and shouldn't cost anything close to what Kessel would.

 

[67Blues]

If Thompson progresses over the off-season, I would be comfortable with
Steen/Thomas/Thompson

Steen is an excellent defensive minded forward who can cover for the two young'uns

 

[67Blues]

I think ROR's price will be ridiculous as they really have no real need to sell him unless they get a stupid overpayment. Johnson on the other hand is more easily moveable and should cost less, but then again, when has Stevie Y ever lost a trade deal? It may come down to the lesser of pain for the Blues.

 

[pawnjohn]

I'd agree that TJ could be the ideal target for the reasons Brian listed above. He also fits that speedy, RHS we are looking for. I just wonder what the cost would end up being ? Is the 1st + Kostin/Thompson going to be enough, or would they prefer a D prospect in the Walman/Schmaltz mold?

 

[Brian39]

I'd agree that TJ could be the ideal target for the reasons Brian listed above. He also fits that speedy, RHS we are looking for. I just wonder what the cost would end up being ? Is the 1st + Kostin/Thompson going to be enough, or would they prefer a D prospect in the Walman/Schmaltz mold?

I'd be pushing hard for the 1st and Walman/Schmaltz. I'd happily add another forward prospect to that as well, assuming it's not one of Thomas/Kyrou/Thompson/Kostin. I believe that we've got our top 4 D moving forward in Ed/Dunn/Petro/Parayko and I have pretty full confidence that all of those guys will be here for the next 3-4 years. Schmaltz/Walman may end up being top 4 caliber D men, but they are a bit expendable in my eyes because I have a ton of confidence in B Armstrong's ability to find D in the 2nd/3rd rounds and D Armstrong's ability to identify and acquire solid bottom pairing guys via low cost trades, UFA or possibly extending Bortz. I realize that our D prospect depth would be getting thin if we move one, but I don't think we really need multiple D prospects to make a significant contribution in the next 3 years.

Stevie Y is a very good GM, but I'm happy to 'overpay' for Johnson if that overpayment consists of expendable assets. I'll happily pay whatever the cost if we can get Johnson without sacrificing a roster piece, multiple 1st round picks or any of the top prospects that we are realistically relying on to make an NHL impact in the next 3 years. With that said, I'm also willing to part with Thompson or Kostin in the deal if that's what it takes and we're not giving up other prospects too.

 

[Brian39]

If Thompson progresses over the off-season, I would be comfortable with
Steen/Thomas/Thompson

Steen is an excellent defensive minded forward who can cover for the two young'uns

I'm also comfortable with that (or another prospect if they pass Thompson), but I just don't want to rely on that heading into camp. I'd rather force those guys to prove that they deserve a spot and then shop Bergie throughout the first few months of the season.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

They’d almost certainly be getting back a RHD from whomever they deal with.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Beer. Lots and lots of Beer.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Beer. Lots and lots of Beer.

I agree

 

[The Note in MI]

Technically it's not really an option to go in that order. Johnson's full NTC kicks in on July 1, which is the earliest we could sign Tavares. If Johnson is moved, it will be before Tavares signs. With that said, these are my 2 favorite targets. My ideal summer is that we trade the 1st and a prospect (besides Thomas/Kyrou) for Johnson at the draft, move Sobotka at the draft for a mid round pick and then sign Tavares on July 1.

Fabbri/Steen-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Johnson
Fabbri/Steen-Thomas-Berglund
Some combo of Barby/Sosh/Brodz/Blais/Thorburn/Jaskin/Foley/Sanford/Kostin/Thompson for the 4th line and 13th/14th forwards.

That's what I would have penciled in at the start of camp and it would be up to young guys to steal that job from Berglund instead of being handed a lineup spot. I don't like Bergy at RW, but he's not in my long term plans if we land 2 more legitimate top 6 players and would essentially be keeping a spot warm until a young guy steals it from him. I'd be comfortable trading Bergy at any time if we land Tavares and Johnson, but I'm not sure if that's realistic until we see some kids earn it in camp. Realistically, Brodz is probably gone in this scenario as adding $15-$17 mil in cap space with TJ/JT is going to force some cap creativity. Brodz would probably be a luxury we can't afford on the 4th line, which isn't the end of the world when you look at all the guys competing for spots at this point.

No matter how it shakes out to make the cap work, adding TJ and JT would put our offense among the best in the league. That would allow us to ice two lines that are 1st line caliber. Even if all of the prospects perform below expectations in camp, having those two top lines allows you to shelter the 3rd line or use it as a shutdown line. You could rely on a Steen/Bergy line as a shutdown group while playing youngsters in heavily sheltered minutes or you could fill your 4th line with PK specialists and roll the 3rd line I listed above in all situations to develop Thomas. Any way you slice it, our offense would be in amazing shape if we land both.

As I've mentioned before, I like going after Johnson in no small part due to the flexibility he affords. If you land Tavares, he could slide into the 3C spot if Thomas isn't as ready as we think and one of Kyrou/Kostin/Thompson shows he is ready for top 9 duties. If you don't land Tavares, acquiring TJ at the draft lets you target RWs and Cs in UFA and trades, rather than focusing on one specific position. It doesn't slam the door shut on Tavares like ROR likely would and shouldn't cost anything close to what Kessel would.

I agree with this post.

The logic behind the moves here is the strongest in my opinion. Tyler Johnson represents an upgrade for us, not only at 2C but also as a 2RW. That provides us the most flexibility moving forward which in this situation is probably the smartest move to make.

Another option I like is signing Tavares and JVR but that requires us to make some moves to clear cap space. I prefer option 1 given that bringing in a Top 6 player is a good sell for Tavares.

Don’t get me wrong I would love to target a true first line RHS RW but that’s going to cost us long term with assets I would love to hang on to.

Ideally we move Sobotka out for 2nd + weak prospect. We try to sell Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson as an injured player for a 3/4/5th round pick + like a 2/3rd rounder contingent on them playing 40+ games in the season. Re sign Brodziak, Jaskin, Schmaltz, Eddy and Fabbri to team friendly deals including one year bridge for Fabbri and shorter 4ish year deal for Eddy. Avoid signing depth players unless a bottom pair RHD can be had for AHL depth at 1m.

If moving Berglund or Steen is necessary to make a deal then do it, they are expendable but more difficult to make work.

Run Allen and Husso as your 1A/1B this year and wait for Husso to push Allen to backup duties.

Fabbri Tavares Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Johnson
Steen Thomas Berglund
Barbashev Brodziak Jaskin
Soshnikov/Sundquist
With Kyrou/Kostin/Sanford/Blais/Thompson callups

Edmundson Pietrangelo
Dunn Parayko
Gunarsson Bortuzzo
Schmaltz/Walman/Mikkola/Butler/Depth Signing

Obviously one of our young players or maybe even two are moved in trade for Johnson.

In the event Tavares is not attainable we slot Johnson over to Center, and search for a RW replacement which is easier said than done but perhaps a guy like Simmonds could be had for a cheap move, or we just sit pat and let kids develop. Another option is to sign Stastny.

Could see something like:

Fabbri Stastny Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Johnson
Steen Thomas Berglund

Fabbri Johnson Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Thomas
Steen Stastny Berglund

Fabbri Stastny Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Insert anyone
Steen Thomas Berglund

The possibilities are endless

Our success in the forseeable future hinges on two things IMO. One we sign JT or Two Thomas becomes a legit Top 6 centerman in the next two years.

If both happen I’m drooling.

 

[KirkOut]

Those all look real solid. Hope something along those lines happens. We need another impact player in the top 6

 

[mk80]

Given the recent happenings would you still go for Hoffman if the accusations against his girlfriend are true?

Good player, but certainly if true that girl is the definition of locker room drama. But on the other hand you may be able to get him for less because of it.

 

[BlueDream]

Given the recent happenings would you still go for Hoffman if the accusations against his girlfriend are true?

Good player, but certainly if true that girl is the definition of locker room drama. But on the other hand you may be able to get him for less because of it.

At the very least, Armstrong has to go to our leadership group (especially Pietro) and ask “would you accept this guy in the room?”

I’d be kinda surprised if the answer is yes. But we’ll see.

 

[Majorityof1]

Pietrangelo might already know Hoffman. They are the same age and both grew up in Ontario, albeit like 70 miles away.

 

[CoMoBlues]

Tyler Johnson. I'd prefer Kessel or RoR if the cost to acquire all the players is the same, but both of those guys will likely command a much higher cost. I don't see RoR or Kessel being moved for anything less than a top 4 D (or top 6 forward) plus a damn good prospect. If I were Buffalo/Pittsburgh, I wouldn't accept anything less than a combination of:

One of Ed/Dunn
and
One of Thomas/Kryou.

IMO, that is not worth it for our team, but neither of those teams needs to trade those guys. If they want to trade them, they can spend 2 years exploring the market and finding the best deal possible. They shouldn't be moved this summer unless it makes clear sense to do so. As a fan of both those organizations, I'd be upset if those players are moved for anything less than a top prospect and good roster player (unless it's to the Blues of course).

Johnson is not as good as either of those players, but can probably be acquired at a cost that won't create a massive hole elsewhere on the roster. He is a right hand shot, can effectively play RW or center, is a very safe bet to score at a 45-55 point pace and allows more cap flexibility than a RoR or Kessel. I think Tampa has way more incentive to move him than the Pens or Sabres have to move their guys and his impending full NTC (combined with the full NTCs for Palat and Killorn) means that the potential return will plummet if they try to wait until next summer to address their impending cap crunch.

I gotta push back here since I feel that Yzerman will hold out until the last possible second to squeeze the absolute most value out of these players/prospects, as evidenced by the Jonathan Droin deal, where everyone in the hockey universe knew that he had to move the player (Drouin) but he still got tremendous value back in a needed position, defense, in top D prospect Mikhail Sergachev.

Don’t be surprised that Army and Bergevin are each in the middle/bottom pack of GM’s and Stevie Y is up in the top rung. He doesn’t feel the pressure of a possible cap crunch a season ahead of time, like an Army would, IMO.

I disagree Tyler Johnson would cost less and am unwilling to move a top prospect like a Kostin or Kyrou to help Yzerman avoid a possible cap crunch, especially a year from now, since we won’t know how much the cap will raise in a year anyway. Maybe I’m just bitter over the 1996 double OT loss to the Wings, but I’d be cautious of doing any favors for Yzerman.

 

[Thallis]

If Thompson progresses over the off-season, I would be comfortable with
Steen/Thomas/Thompson

Steen is an excellent defensive minded forward who can cover for the two young'uns

You can't really go into the season with that in mind though. Hope isn't a strategy and development is not linear. Thompson should be considered an extra forward for our lineup until he proves he's an every day player.

 

[Brian39]

I gotta push back here since I feel that Yzerman will hold out until the last possible second to squeeze the absolute most value out of these players/prospects, as evidenced by the Jonathan Droin deal, where everyone in the hockey universe knew that he had to move the player (Drouin) but he still got tremendous value back in a needed position, defense, in top D prospect Mikhail Sergachev.

Don’t be surprised that Army and Bergevin are each in the middle/bottom pack of GM’s and Stevie Y is up in the top rung. He doesn’t feel the pressure of a possible cap crunch a season ahead of time, like an Army would, IMO.

I disagree Tyler Johnson would cost less and am unwilling to move a top prospect like a Kostin or Kyrou to help Yzerman avoid a possible cap crunch, especially a year from now, since we won’t know how much the cap will raise in a year anyway. Maybe I’m just bitter over the 1996 double OT loss to the Wings, but I’d be cautious of doing any favors for Yzerman.

This is the last possible second on Johnson. His full NTC activates in 15 days. If he isn't moved in that span, the player has full control. If he isn't traded in the next 15 days, he can wholesale veto any trade for the next 3 years.

As to the second bolded, ignoring next season's cap crunch until it is too late to shed assets is shortsightedness, not a virtue. The Lightning currently have $43 mil tied up in 8 guys for the 2019/20 season and no one else is under contract (excluding prospects outside the NHL). 5 of those 8 guys have full NTCs and another has a modified NTC with unknown details. Kucherov is due a massive raise that summer and 4 of their D are UFAs that summer. Let's assume Kucherov gets $8 mil on a long term deal. That would be an incredible discount for a player who scored 40 goals and 100 points this season after a 39 goal, 86 point season the year before. But for the sake of argument lets assume that Stevie Y can get him to sign that. Let's also assume that McDonagh and Stralman take big discounts and cost $10 mil combined. They would now be at $61 mil for 11 guys. $49 mil is tied up in guys with full NTCs, another $5.8 is tied up in a guy with an unknown modified NTC and another $3.5 mil is tied up in your Vezina candidate goalie who isn't going anywhere. So you're locked into pretty much all those deals, need to fill a dozen roster spots, which includes contracts for Point (who you've identified as your 2C and just had a 66 point season at 21), Miller (58 points as a 25 year old), and 2 NHL caliber D men. And by the way, you can't get too close to the Cap because Vasilevski and Sergachev will both be due big raises the next summer and you still won't be able to move any of your big contracts since they all have full trade protection at that point. Even if the cap increases $5 mil a year for each of the next 3 seasons (very unlikely), keeping Johnson means that a more important piece becomes a cap casualty. That isn't senseless pressure. That is reality. You can only have so many guys making $4.5 mil+, especially when you have two $8 mil forwards and an $8 mil D man. This isn't some panic move. This is keeping Johnson until his NTC forces you to make a decision about who you value more for a 3 year span and then recovering assets before keeping him costs you another player that you like more.

As to the 3rd bolded. Tyler Johnson is a 2nd line center or RW. He's a good two way player who had 50 points last season, hasn't exceeded 50 points in 3 seasons and has scored on a 45-55 point pace in each of his 3 last seasons. ROR is arguably a 1C, but at worst is a top end 2C. He hasn't been below 55 points since the lockout season and and has been on pace for 60 or better in each of the last 3 seasons. He is better defensively than Johnson and better at the faceoff dot. Phil Kessel had 92 points last season and 70 the year before. On what basis do you believe that Johnson will return a similar return in a trade as those two players?

 

[67Blues]

You can't really go into the season with that in mind though. Hope isn't a strategy and development is not linear. Thompson should be considered an extra forward for our lineup until he proves he's an every day player.

Then the same should be said for Thomas, Kyrou, and any other rookies/prospects. So, lets fill up the open positions with vets and short term contracts and see if we can work these kids into the line up when injuries occur?

 

[Brian39]

Then the same should be said for Thomas, Kyrou, and any other rookies/prospects. So, lets fill up the open positions with vets and short term contracts and see if we can work these kids into the line up when injuries occur?

Thomas looks more prepared right now to handle 3rd line NHL duty than Thompson has at any time I've watched him. I'm comfortable penciling Thomas into the 3rd line center spot because he looked like a 3rd line NHLer in May of this year. His skating, passing and IQ all look NHL ready to me and his defensive play looks good enough to at least not be a liability in sheltered NHL minutes. It isn't because I'm confident he will take another step over the summer to hit that point.

On the other hand, by the end of last season, Thompson didn't look like an NHL caliber player to me. He needs to take another step to be ready for that and I'm not comfortable allocating roster spots based on that with no real backup plan.

At the moment, I'm comfortable with Steen/Thomas as two thirds of the 3rd line. I'm not comfortable with Thompson as the last part unless and until he demonstrates that he has progressed. There is nothing contradictory about those positions.

And yes, I want to fill open spots with NHL caliber players. Right now we have Schenn, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Steen, Bergie, Sobotka, Fabbri, and Thomas as guys who I have penciled into the top 9. One of Bergie/Sobotka should absolutely be gone and we should be bringing in 2 middle 6 or better quality players. That fills the 9 spots. If Thompson/Kyrou/Blais/Kostin/Sanford/Barby/Foley/Sosh outplays Bergie then that is a fantastic problem to have. You work them into the lineup on the 4th line or put them into the top 9 and demote the vet who they outperformed to the 4th line. Then you move the vet and give the rookie the spot for good. If multiple prospects outperform expectations, that's even better. But you force them to earn spots by proving it rather than giving them a spot hoping that they prove it at camp.

At 5 on 5, our biggest issue last year was the middle 6 forward group (more specifically, a gaping lack of quality 7th-9th forwards). We watched Barby, Thompson, Jaskin, Sundqvist, and Blais all demonstrate that they weren't good enough to contribute in those roles and then lost one of our top 6 forwards. Hoping that prospects are ready to fill multiple spots in that group is insanity.

 

[Thallis]

Then the same should be said for Thomas, Kyrou, and any other rookies/prospects. So, lets fill up the open positions with vets and short term contracts and see if we can work these kids into the line up when injuries occur?

Yes. Don't hand off spots to kids for the sake of having a young lineup. It's one of the reasons I think we should keep Berglund around. I expect Thomas to win the 3C job in camp, but if he doesn't earn it, then he shouldn't be there. I don't think Kyrou is going to play a prominent role for the Blues this season either. We aren't in a position to let the kids play, we're not rebuilders. We're trying to improve and be contenders.