Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by not quite yoda, Feb 20, 2005.
What is plan B for Bob Goodenow now that the season is canceled? How does he get the deal he wants?
I e-mailed Ted Leonsis (owner of the Capitals-you can e-mail him via the Caps' web site)...
I asked him what could possibly be Goodenow's plan B; that I couldn't understand how any League offer could get any better for the players...asLeague revenues drop, player salaries have to drop...
Leonsis answered this:
"You are a wise man--it only gets worse for the players now--he overplayed his hand! Ted"
I hacked his laptop and got this
hold out for more cash. Repeat until success or Bettman cancels the season. If season is cancelled, try plan B.
Have Bill Guerin and Ted Saskins build a time machine.
Rewind 6 months.
Try again with a cap.
If this fails, see plan C
Sad part is unless he plans on overseeing the ruin of some other sport, I don't think he has a Plan B.
Now anybody have an intelligent opinion out there that doesn't make a joke of this thread?
No seriously... he MUST have a plab B! he didn't turn down a 42.5 cap unless he believes there is a way of getting a better number. Even Saskin said Saturday: "I can't imagine getting an offer that gets any worse".
Goodenow thinks he can achieve something better than a 42.5 cap. What is the way?
Regroup. Bettman and the hawks in the NHL won't deal until they sense the PA is getting its act together again and uniting behind the leadership. If the players rally behind a new cause, movement, ideal etc... until then, the NHL will just wait them out.
If surveys also show that blind fan support for the owners is waning, then the NHL might also reconsider its hardline. I'm not saying the hawkish pro-owner fans will ever support the players, but the NHL support group might morph into 'a pox-on-both-their-houses' type attitude.
Well if Ted doesn't think it will get worse for him as an owners, he better think again.
He never said it wouldn't get worse for the League... naturally he admits that revenues would go down otherwise there would be no reason for him to say that the cap level goes down.
I think the point is getting to a low cap level. Then winning back the fans and corporate sponsorship with the "new" product -new rules, new league logo- over time.
Naturally things will get worse for the owners too.
I want to know HOW Goodenow thinks things will get better for the NHLPA. WHAT is his plan?
If Saskin can't imagine getting an offer that gets worse, I sincerely hope he braces himself for the offer he's going to see for next season. Goodenow's had two chances now to work off of the league's offer, save a ton of face, and he's blown it both times. I find it hard to believe he's still deadline hunting at this point. The only thing I can see him doing would go something like this: enough owners who could easily thrive under a 45 or higher cap start turning against the few teams who are holding out for the 42. At some point the Dolan's of the NHL are going to be screaming that everything's being held up due to a few clubs who, if they can't thrive under a 45 or so million dollar cap, shouldn't even be in this league. That's the only thing I can possibly see him doing.
Plan B for Goodenow is to wait. The longer this goes the better he looks in the union because he can say he was right. The owners best offer (if there is to be one) will come some time in the spring (May), because they would have to sell tickets and sponsorships and such for the next season. They also have to get working on a new TV deal because there is a very good chance that ESPN will pull the plug on them. They also have to figure out an entry draft. This is when the big money owners are going to start the speak up. They aren't going to let the Wirtz, Jacobs and other idiots ruin this for them, completely.
I think Bill Daly left something when he said the owners want to have a deal done in order to do this. They do not want to have to resort to the thought of replacement players.
If not, I don't think the players union will hold together enough to last through another canceled season.
BTW, email any owner you want, espically one of the hard line owners. It is laughable at best if you expected any other answer, even if it was clear the owners were going to lose this.
At this point in time, Goodenow may have overplayed his hand, by this September 2005, if a deal is not done, the perception may be that Bettman overplayed his hand in February.
In addition, I would expect nothing less from an owner's reply.
This is one of the areas that the league shot themselves in the foot. They could've used these 28 games in order to showcase the new rule changes, win back some fans, and make the package look attractive to ESPN. After yesterday, which I think did far more damage the the NHL as a whole than Wednesday, ESPN has to know that if there's a shot that the NHL will dip into the negative in terms of ratings, the chances just improved greatly.
Now the door's open for prime time poker shows....Poker2Nite....and any other poker show that'll blow the NHL's ratings out of the water if/when it ever comes back.
It'd be in the best interests for everyone to get together, hammer this thing out today, get the season started ASAP. It's this little area where we start talking about snowballs and chances....
This situation has already been ruined.On the brink of disaster,the NHL refuses to negotiate a higher cap than $42.5 million knowing the damage being done.Why will anything change in May?Why haven't the big market teams put their foot down by now?They are going to lose all of the playoff revenue
The situation is already ruined for the sport, this is true. But it is not ruined for the business of the big money teams, because in all liklihood the big money teams won't have that much of a problem brining fans back as long as they lower ticket prices, as long as they come back next season (the Rangers wouldn't have had any playoff revenue anyways). They're not making money right now, but they're also not losing money. They're staying united right now, but that won't be for much longer.
As for why would anything change in May, read my last post again.
Plan A = wait.
He's had his ass handed to him on a plate. Any he gets offered later is going to be worse than what he just got offered. His only hope is to out wait the owners. Its lose-lose but what else can he do? The longer he waits the more teams his risks killing, the less jobs for players. I don't think there is a plan B, just more of plan A.
IMHO best chance for a deal was now. The players had less to lose than the owners during the Feb negotiations. The owners had the playoffs & revenue to lose, they had the draft to lose. That leverage is now gone. Both sides will cool down and get back to organised shape. The owners haven't got much left to lose before Christmas.
The whip hand goes back to the owners in September because that is when the players start losing paycheques again. Maybe the owners crack in September, but the players maybe the crack too.
It worth remembering the players biggest chip was the rollback. Less and less players are effected by that as time ticks by.
The only way to prove that theory is to wait and see if it is true. I think owners and fans of larger markets are going to turn on the 'parity hawks' in the smaller markets. Fans in larger markets originally backing the owners will change when they see how a strict cap might decimate their home team after a dispersal draft. The pendulum had swung to Bettman, but a pendulum swings and momentum often shifts in a battle. I think larger markets, owners, fans and corporations, who were backing Bettman and the hawks up to now, may start to re-think their positions.
It'll happen a lot sooner than that. Look for the NHL to declare an impasse by late April so they can hold a draft and avoid all the problems that will happen if they don't. The players will be under extreme pressure as they watch teams being assembled for the 2005-06 season. Plans will be made to shift games of teams in provinces that don't allow replacement players to provinces that do. The NHL has been scrupulous about not using impasse/replacement player threats or discussing it publically as it's evidence negotiating was not done in good faith. Bettman's assurance that there will be a season next year is practically a guarantee that they have a plan laid out, and realistically they need to implement it at least 30 days before the June 1st signing deadline for players selected in 2003.
Listening to Bill Daly talk, it seems as if a deal does in fact get done by May-ish, that a draft will happen.
1. handing out resumes and hope that McDonalds is willing to take a chance on him.
2. He won't!
If the difference was solely between the 42-45 numbers as some believe, no one would listen to talk of impasse, they would be sent back to the table. That's why it was so important for the NHL to make sure that the PA would not go along with anything else in the deal, re revenue sharing,escalators arbitration etc. Now they can more easily point to a clear disagreement. Keeping in mind that I know nothing of legal gymnastics, though I am quite sneaky.
What's plan B? Wait.
Goodenow only has one option right now and that is wait to see what the NHL does. That will determine what plan B is.
Obviously the players hope they can fairly negotiate a deal with the NHL. Barring that they can't reply with a plan B until the NHL shows its next move.
If it is impasse then plan B for the players is to challenge the impasse in court and hope for a win.
If it is replacement players then plan B for the players is to picket and make all sorts of public relation nightmares for the NHL.
Sad to say...it is a waiting game at this point.
Goodenow's Plan B has to include using the legal system to somehow tie the hands of the owners. I don't see any other way to get what he wants without taking some power away from the league. But, since he did put the cap offer out there, it seems like he caved on the most precious aspect of the new deal from his side. At this point, it comes down to how long they can wait and what is the best deal they can extract. It obvious that they aren't going to like the terms of that deal. Is there any way to force change in those terms? I don't see how.
Goodenow = beaten
I think you are right about what happens next. I think the NHLPA has to understand that fans WILL show up for replacements.
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