Speculation: What If The Salary Cap Goes Down?

[DeVols]

With the whole situation going on right now and with the season Hall had I can't see any team offering him more than 7.5. No chance he's worth 9 to 12 million dollars

You are insane if you think no team will offer Hall more than $7.5M. I’d sign him to that yesterday.

 

[BlueBaron]

The only logical thing to do is for the league to lower all salaries in proportion to how much the cap drops. Forcing every team to buyout players to fit under the cap defeats the purpose of the Cap since you will have teams spending much more while giving a bonus payday to players bought out and then re-signed.It also creates all kinds of unnecessary transactions and chaos when it's easy to avoid.

This very much feels like wishful thinking for many here and just something to talk about for the media. There has yet to be any kind of intelligent reason put forth to create all this kind of chaos for no reason when a fair solution is so simple and obvious.

It's like people think the league is run by 10 year olds.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Teams will have less cap dollars to allocate to their players.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

The only logical thing to do is for the league to lower all salaries in proportion to how much the cap drops. Forcing every team to buyout players to fit under the cap defeats the purpose of the Cap since you will have teams spending much more while giving a bonus payday to players bought out and then re-signed.It also creates all kinds of unnecessary transactions and chaos when it's easy to avoid.

This very much feels like wishful thinking for many here and just something to talk about for the media. There has yet to be any kind of intelligent reason put forth to create all this kind of chaos for no reason when a fair solution is so simple and obvious.

It's like people think the league is run by 10 year olds.

That is wishful thinking. A contract is a contract. You can't breach it with shenanigans like that.

 

[Hogan86]

Who knows if there will even be a 2020/2021 season. Covid-19 might shut down the sporting world well into 2021.

 

[BlueBaron]

That is wishful thinking. A contract is a contract. You can't breach it with shenanigans like that.

It is logical thinking, something absent from your post.

You can if both parties consent. Not always good to state opinions like fact when you don't know what you are talking about. Who gains from all these buy outs and screwing over cap teams? Is that good for the league? Will it grow the game? No it will piss off fans who already lost their season and playoffs.

You have strong feelings that the only way things will play out is the way worst for the league. Makes 0 sense. Also these things always shaft the lower end and middle class players, so most of them. Stars will not suffer nearly as much. Guess who make up more NHLPA votes?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It is logical thinking, something absent from your post.

You can if both parties consent. Not always good to state opinions like fact when you don't know what you are talking about. Who gains from all these buy outs and screwing over cap teams? Is that good for the league? Will it grow the game? No it will piss off fans who already lost their season and playoffs.

You have strong feelings that the only way things will play out is the way worst for the league. Makes 0 sense. Also these things always shaft the lower end and middle class players, so most of them. Stars will not suffer nearly as much. Guess who make up more NHLPA votes?

You fail understand what a contract is. Good luck to you in the future. lol

 

[Legion34]

You fail understand what a contract is. Good luck to you in the future. lol

Yes. The contract between the NHL and PA is a 50% split. If cancelled, the contract states that the PA will owe approximately 1 billion dollars.


there are multiple versions of how the PA can fulfil that contract. One of those would be a salary rollback.

The players (if the season is cancelled) are actually not fulfilling their contracts technically (by not playing the 82 games) of course it’s not a “breach” really as the players aren’t refusing but technically the NHL paid them. They didn’t play.


The actual issue is the players will owe about 1 billion in revenue. So they will either


1.) pay it back in full this summer
2.) make a payment plan, which would be salary rollbacks.

 

[BlueBaron]

You fail understand what a contract is. Good luck to you in the future. lol

You fail to realize contracts can be renegotiated. Kinda bizarre but ok....Unions have agreed to renegotiate contracts thousands upon thousands of times but you seem determined there must be a certain outcome regardless of how stupid it is for every party involved except the buyout boys.

It is clear you understand the word contract but have little to no insight into business or organized labor so why keep pretending you know what you are talking about?

Better you just outright state you are hoping for chaos or the downfall of team X because all you have done is post your hopes and dreams so far and you have avoided being pragmatic at all costs. You can keep saying your mantra of "contract, contract" but until you learn they are not set in stone and 100% unnegotiable you will continue to misrepresent it's significance.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

But what has he done outside of one great season? He scored 30 goals once and hit over 70 points once in the last 7 years. He's got 5 total playoff games in his career which doesn't help anything either. Hall is so overrated and won't get 9 million

you realize Hall has played on bottom feeder teams his whole career right?

I know its the unspoken notion here but any star player's numbers take a nosedive when playing with a subpar supporting cast.

 

[93gilmour93]

you realize Hall has played on bottom feeder teams his whole career right?

I know its the unspoken notion here but any star player's numbers take a nosedive when playing with a subpar supporting cast.

Agreed but it certainly won't help anything in negotiations on a new deal

 

[Cousin Eddie]

OMG I just realized Steve Yzerman created COVID-19. Look at all that Detroit cap space.

- Invent deadly disease to cause a mass pandemic and kill the economy
- NHL lowers salary cap
- Draft Lafrenieire
- Finds a bunch of Datsyuk’s in the later rounds like the old days because of lack of scouting/U-18’s/CHL playoffs/European League finals etc.
- Sign Lehner, Hall and Pietrangelo to sweetheart deals.
- Tampa wins the next Stanley Cup (whenever it’s awarded) and Yzerman gets credit for building that foundation.
- Detroit takes over as the next wagon of the NHL while Tampa falls apart because of future cap issues.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You fail to realize contracts can be renegotiated. Kinda bizarre but ok....Unions have agreed to renegotiate contracts thousands upon thousands of times but you seem determined there must be a certain outcome regardless of how stupid it is for every party involved except the buyout boys.

It is clear you understand the word contract but have little to no insight into business or organized labor so why keep pretending you know what you are talking about?

Better you just outright state you are hoping for chaos or the downfall of team X because all you have done is post your hopes and dreams so far and you have avoided being pragmatic at all costs. You can keep saying your mantra of "contract, contract" but until you learn they are not set in stone and 100% unnegotiable you will continue to misrepresent it's significance.

There is no downfall of team X. You are uber dramatic for some reason. Simple outcome is that all contracts remain in tact and cap either goes down or stays flat. Teams will make do. Its not the end of the world. The players association will stand with the status quo (as contracts are sacred) and the GMs accept it and adjust accordingly.

 

[Legion34]

There is no downfall of team X. You are uber dramatic for some reason. Simple outcome is that all contracts remain in tact and cap either goes down or stays flat. Teams will make do. Its not the end of the world. The players association will stand with the status quo (as contracts are sacred) and the GMs accept it and adjust accordingly.

????

And what happens to the half billion dollars the players owe?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

????

And what happens to the half billion dollars the players owe?

That is why they have escrow. And the amount owed, if at all, has yet to be determined.

 

[Legion34]

That is why they have escrow. And the amount owed, if at all, has yet to be determined.

? And if it goes over the 14%holdback. You do realize they still owe it right? It’s 50/50. It’s not
“Owners can get a maximum of 14% back”


it’s pretty simple. The owners have paid 2.5 billion in salaries. That means the HRR must be 5 billion. IF the NHL only makes 3.5-4 billion. The players owe money back. The NHLPA has said for players to expect an extra 21% escrow if the League shuts down for the year. They owe that money. This year. Not next.

scenario 1: worst case. Season is cancelled. NHL loses their shirt. Claws back as much as they can.
And the players make a payment plan or pay all upfront.

Scenario 2: the NHL starts back up. And the league makes as much money as they can. If escrow covers it they cover it.

the cap could remain flat for next year. But all that will mean is that the owners will owe the players next year if the HRR exceeds the cap.

your weird scenario of the cap dropping, which as never happened in practice. And compliance buyouts without salary rollback/prorated hits has also never happened. Ever.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

? And if it goes over the 14%holdback. You do realize they still owe it right? It’s 50/50. It’s not
“Owners can get a maximum of 14% back”


it’s pretty simple. The owners have paid 2.5 billion in salaries. That means the HRR must be 5 billion. IF the NHL only makes 3.5-4 billion. The players owe money back. The NHLPA has said for players to expect an extra 21% escrow if the League shuts down for the year. They owe that money. This year. Not next.

scenario 1: worst case. Season is cancelled. NHL loses their shirt. Claws back as much as they can.
And the players make a payment plan or pay all upfront.

Scenario 2: the NHL starts back up. And the league makes as much money as they can. If escrow covers it they cover it.

the cap could remain flat for next year. But all that will mean is that the owners will owe the players next year if the HRR exceeds the cap.

your weird scenario of the cap dropping, which as never happened in practice. And compliance buyouts without salary rollback/prorated hits has also never happened. Ever.

Then they pay the difference, in a scenario where it exceeds escrow. But that has yet to be determined. And for the record, this could occur for the 2019/2020 season anyways.

I think what you fail to understand is that the cap impacts are already realized for 2020 and any costs coming back will be from the current escrow and any additional payments that may be required from the players.

for 2020/2021, there is no need to change the system.

 

[Legion34]

Then they pay the difference, in a scenario where it exceeds escrow. But that has yet to be determined. And for the record, this could occur for the 2020 season anyways.

yes. They do. So how does that effect next years cap?

if your suggestion is that the players lose up to 35% of their salaries this year.... and then agree to lose salaries NEXT year as well?


Bizarre.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

yes. They do. So how does that effect next years cap?

if your suggestion is that the players lose up to 35% of their salaries this year.... and then agree to lose salaries NEXT year as well?


Bizarre.

IF the players lose up to 30% of their salaries this year, that is unavoidable. As for next season, the only change may be a higher escrow percentage corresponding with a reduction in cap. What the players WILL NOT allow is a cut in their contract value.

 

[Stephen]

The cap may come down, but I don't see the owners collectively writing checks in the order of a hundred million dollars plus for compliance buyouts, only to have to re-sign the same pool of players set loose to free agency to fresh new contracts. It will have to be a negotiated compromise to keep as much of the 50/50 balance.

 

[Legion34]

IF the players lose up to 30% of their salaries this year, that is unavoidable. As for next season, the only change may be a higher escrow percentage corresponding with a reduction in cap. What the players WILL NOT allow is a cut in their contract value.

? There are 250 free agents next year. Cutting cap will reduce their contract values.

i might be confused as to what you are arguing. Are you predicting that the cap will stay the same or reduce?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

? There are 250 free agents next year. Cutting cap will reduce their contract values.

i might be confused as to what you are arguing. Are you predicting that the cap will stay the same or reduce?

I'm not arguing. I'm just saying that the system currently in place accommodates a reduction in cap. Players contribute to escrow and if required, may need to contribute more. What they likely would not allow would be a cut in their contract values. Contract values are sacred to the players association. The only time they take a cut is during a lockout when they get bullied with the NHL ownership.

 

[Legion34]

I'm not arguing. I'm just saying that the system currently in place accommodates a reduction in cap. Players contribute to escrow and if required, may need to contribute more. What they likely would not allow would be a cut in their contract values. Contract values are sacred to the players association. The only time they take a cut is during a lockout when they get bullied with the NHL ownership.

you have a strange definition of sacred considering it happened multiple times.

The difference here is that they actually owe money this time (most likely). They have taken 2 cuts in 15 years. When they didn’t even owe money. The cap has Never actually went down in practice. Players have taken 2 cuts.

Based on history salary rollbacks are way more likely than a cap reduction. Which is actually unprecedented.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

you have a strange definition of sacred considering it happened multiple times.

The difference here is that they actually owe money this time (most likely). They have taken 2 cuts in 15 years. When they didn’t even owe money. The cap has Never actually went down in practice. Players have taken 2 cuts.

Based on history salary rollbacks are way more likely than a cap reduction. Which is actually unprecedented.

When did the NHLPA take a cut in salary, other than during the lockouts?? The whole issue of the lockout was that the players did not want a rollback in salary. They fought tooth and and nail and ended up giving in due to the prospect of not playing hockey. This is different, its not a lockout. The players have no reason to take a cut in contract value. They just need to honor the 50/50 clause and give back (i.e. contribute more to escrow) if required.

 

[TheNewEra]

The only logical thing to do is for the league to lower all salaries in proportion to how much the cap drops. Forcing every team to buyout players to fit under the cap defeats the purpose of the Cap since you will have teams spending much more while giving a bonus payday to players bought out and then re-signed.It also creates all kinds of unnecessary transactions and chaos when it's easy to avoid.

This very much feels like wishful thinking for many here and just something to talk about for the media. There has yet to be any kind of intelligent reason put forth to create all this kind of chaos for no reason when a fair solution is so simple and obvious.

It's like people think the league is run by 10 year olds.

While this maybe the most logical solution, getting the majority of the players/NHL PA to agree to a salary reduction is a hard sell

it would be much easier for the compliance buyout to be agreed upon as it wouldnt effect the majority of the players/nhlpa (only 30 players) and some of those 30 players that will be given the compliance buyout will actually want the change of scenery since they will get paid anyways

examples
schneider got sent down and maybe forced to bounce between ahl and nhl. This way he gets paid and can potentially get to play in the nhl for much cheaper on another team
same reasoning as above for alzner, baertschi

those are the big name contracts if you could say that. There are also the big contracts of players in the nhl that need a change of scenery to see if they have anything left but due to their cap hit they will not get it with their current team.

Basically what im trying to say is that it will be much easier to convince the nhlpa of 30 buyouts then a universal reduction in salary