What If Mario Played in 95

[CharlestownChiefsESC]

Just a random thought I had. As we know Mario sat out in 95 due to fatigue from his radiation treatment. But what if he decided to play anyway. I averaged his ppg from 93-94 and 95-96 which arrived at a 1.99 ppg pace, this would have given him 96 pts in 48 games which is crazy in itself as he would have been 26 pts ahead of Jagr and Lindros. Also the Pens had finished 2nd to the Nordiques in the Northeast that year with him in the lineup do they pass them and win the division? If not and things remain the same, do they beat the Devils in round 2, if so do they take the Flyers in the ECF (remember they finished 1pt better than them and would have had home ice) and does a Pens - Red Wings final kill the DPE? . Another thought I had was if he pulled a Forsberg in 02 or Kucherov this year and comes back for the playoffs, how do they fare then? All things to ponder.

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

I mean if he had played - and if he had played enough games - he'd have won the Ross pretty easily. Good chance at hart/pearson too. He was a much better offensive player than anyone else - including peak Jagr/Lindros.

As for team results - impossible to say. Lemieux is almost as big an x-factor as you can come up with in the history of hockey - so throw him in the playoffs (especially if he was rested and skipped playoffs as you suggest) - and there's a very good chance he wins a 3rd smythe/they win the cup. But of course - it's possible they just fizzle out too.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Just a random thought I had. As we know Mario sat out in 95 due to fatigue from his radiation treatment. But what if he decided to play anyway. I averaged his ppg from 93-94 and 95-96 which arrived at a 1.99 ppg pace, this would have given him 96 pts in 48 games which is crazy in itself as he would have been 26 pts ahead of Jagr and Lindros. Also the Pens had finished 2nd to the Nordiques in the Northeast that year with him in the lineup do they pass them and win the division? If not and things remain the same, do they beat the Devils in round 2, if so do they take the Flyers in the ECF (remember they finished 1pt better than them and would have had home ice) and does a Pens - Red Wings final kill the DPE? . Another thought I had was if he pulled a Forsberg in 02 or Kucherov this year and comes back for the playoffs, how do they fare then? All things to ponder.

if he'd played and managed to hit 100, that would have really tempered our enthusiasm about mcdavid this year i think

but i'd venture that if he'd come back there is no way he plays all 48, and most likely sits out at least ten games.

 

[kaiser matias]

if he'd played and managed to hit 100, that would have really tempered our enthusiasm about mcdavid this year i think

but i'd venture that if he'd come back there is no way he plays all 48, and most likely sits out at least ten games.

I would agree with the latter: considering the condensed schedule that year, he would have been sitting out plenty of games. He did that in normal years, there's no way it wouldn't happen in 1995 as well.

Question is would it have been enough to keep him from winning the Art Ross? Also consider that with Lemieux in the lineup, Jagr's totals would be wildly different: no longer the driving force on the Penguins, but benefitting from Lemieux in the lineup, it would be interesting to see what would happen to Jagr as well.

 

[Czech Your Math]

There's too many variables/questions to come up with anything approaching a definitive answer with high confidence, but let's at least take a look at some of the variables involved and try to make a guess.

These are some post-1993 seasons in which Lemieux was still in his prime (1993 and before is more his peak than prime... after 2001 is outside of his prime) in terms of the league scoring environment, the Penguins' scoring performance, and Lemieux's own performance:

NOTE: PPOPG = power play opportunities per game ES = even strength ML = Mario Lemieux

	Avg. Team GPG	Avg. Team ES GPG	Avg. Team PPOPG	ML GP	ML ES PTS	ML PP+SH PTS	ML ES PPG	ML PP+SH PPG
1993-94	3.24	2.24	4.85	22	22	15	1.00	0.68
1994-95	2.98	2.08	4.35
1994-95 (East)	2.88	2.08	4.15
1995-96	3.15	2.10	5.04	70	73	88	1.04	1.26
1996-97	2.91	2.12	4.10	76	79	43	1.04	0.57
2000-01	2.76	1.88	4.59	43	43	32	1.00	0.74

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So I see these as the primary variables, from which we can make a guess at his points scored in 1994-95:

GP: How many games would Lemieux have played?
ES PPG : What would Lemieux's ES PPG have been?
PP & SH Points: What would Lemieux's special teams points have been?

Games Played: Even after taking the '95 season off, Lemieux didn't play back to back games in the 1995-96 season. Given that he wouldn't have had that year of rest, it seems reasonable to assume he would have not played back to back games in 1994-95. That's not a certainty though, because he did play back to back games in 1996-97 (although he missed 6 games), and in 2000-01 (although he had three years of rest before that season). 2000-01 was somewhat similar to 1994-95, in that he played 43/46 of the Penguins' remaining games from Dec. 27 to April 8, while the 1994-95 schedule was 48 games from Jan. 20 to May 3. The Penguins had 9 pairs of back to back games on the accelerated 1994-95 schedule. Even when playing back to back games, Lemieux still missed some games (6/82 in '97 and 3/46 in '01). We should also note that while Lemieux only played 22 regular season games in 1993-94, these were mostly in the latter part of the season, as he played 18 of the Pens' final 30 games, then played in all six of their playoff games. So he wouldn't be nearly as rested in 1994-95 as he was in 1995-96.

Best guesses: Low end- He doesn't play back to back games, so plays 39 games. High end- He plays back to back games, but still misses 3 games, so plays 45 games. Best guess- Midpoint of 42 games.

Even Strength Points: Fortunately, this number was incredibly steady during Lemieux's non-peak prime years, twice being 1.00 and twice being 1.04. The NHL ES GPG was 2.08, which was very similar to '96 (2.10) and '97 (2.12), which were the two largest samples of his play in this period. It was higher in '94 (2.24) and lower in '08 (1.88), so there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect a big change in his ES PPG. So the low end is 1.00, the high end 1.04, with best guess being the average or 1.02.

Best case: 45 GP x 1.04 ES PPG = 46.8 ES Points
Worst case: 39 GP x 1.00 ES PPG = 39 ES Points
Best guess: 42 GP x 1.02 ES PPG = 42.8 ES Points

PP Points: This is by far the most difficult variable at which to guess. The Pens' 1995-96 power play was historically great, although their power play was usually excellent under Lemieux (21.8% in '97), who was probably as good as anyone in history on the power play. Still, I don't think we could expect Lemieux to produce at quite the level which he did in 1995-96, since he wouldn't have been nearly as rested, and so probably wouldn't have been able to play nearly as high of a % of PP ice time. The Pens' 1994-95 power play was ~7.2% more effective than league average (19.0% vs. 17.7%), so I used this ratio to calculate the Pens' PP% w/o Lemieux in '94, '96, '97 & '01, then used that calculate their PP% with Lemieux in those years:

1994: 15.5%
1996: 27.1%
1997: 22.2%
2001: 22.5%

I think we can toss 1994 as an anomaly based on small sample. So for PP%, our high end would be 27.1%, the low end 22.2% and the best guess is an average of '97 & '01 or ~22.3%. For the same reason, I'm only going to sue '96, '97 & '01 to calculate his PP points as a % of PP goals in games he plays. Those numbers are calculated to be:

1996: 81.3%
1997: 53.1%
2001: 72.4%

A simple average of those numbers is 68.9%, while a weighted average is 70.1%. We'll go with 70.1%. as a best guess, with the high & low ends being the extremes.

Best case: 45 GP = ~207 PPO * .271 PP% = 56.2 PPG * 81.3% PPP% = 45.7 PP Points
Worst case: 39 GP = ~180 PPO * .222 PP% = 39.8 PPG * 53.1% PPP% = 21.1 PP Points
Best guess: 42 GP = ~193 PPO * .223 PP% = 43.2 PPG * 70.1% PPP% = 30.3 PP Points

SH Points: We also need to know how many SH points he'd score. He didn't score any in '94 and only one in '01, so we'll discard those as anomalies due to injury/age. Instead we'll look at '96 & '97 in terms of how many SH points he scored as a % of non-SH points:

1996 = 9/152 or 5.9%
1997 = 6/116 or 5.2%

So the low end would be 5.2%, the high end 5.9%, and best guess the average of the two at 5.55%.

CONCLUSION:

Best case scenario, with about every benefit of the doubt given to Lemieux:

45 GP, 46.8 ESP, 45.7 PPP, 5.5 SHP = 98 Points

Worst case scenario, using the most conservative realistic estimates:

39 GP, 39 ESP, 21.1 PPP, 3.1 SHP = 63 Points

Best guess, given the great uncertainty of many variables:

42 GP, 42.8 ESP, 30.3 PPP, 3.7 SHP = 77 Points

So there's a good chance he would win the Ross, although not a certainty. As far as the fate of the Penguins in the playoffs, if we assume Lemieux's production is enough to put the Pens ahead of Quebec in the standings, then they would play the Rangers in the first round. I think it's safe to say the would have beaten them, given that they took the season series 3-0 and dispatched the Rangers both in '92 (in a tough series, mostly w/o Lemieux) and '96 (fairly easily). They still would have faced the Devils in the second round, whether Quebec or the Caps faced the Flyers, so no difference in their fate.

I know this was way longer than necessary, but I enjoyed the methodology of constructing a range and best guess for Lemieux's performance if he had played in 1994-95.

 

[Czech Your Math]

I would agree with the latter: considering the condensed schedule that year, he would have been sitting out plenty of games. He did that in normal years, there's no way it wouldn't happen in 1995 as well.

Question is would it have been enough to keep him from winning the Art Ross? Also consider that with Lemieux in the lineup, Jagr's totals would be wildly different: no longer the driving force on the Penguins, but benefitting from Lemieux in the lineup, it would be interesting to see what would happen to Jagr as well.

Jagr would still have been the driving force at even strength, at least as much as Lemieux, and I doubt they would have played on the same line, although it's possible. I think it was a mistake to do so in '96 playoffs (in ECF after Francis was injured in second round, allowing Florida to concentrate on one line) and in '97 (they still had Francis, Nedved, etc. to make two very good lines). The only time it made sense was in 2001, because the KLS line had its own chemistry. While it may have helped each's ES production to play together, it probably wasn't as much as you'd think (see Lemieux's ES PPG in '97 & '01 vs. '94 & '96... and Jagr was a top ES player already w/o Lemeiux), and it's not worth turning two excellent lines into one super line IMO. It also probably wouldn't have affected Jagr's PP production much, as the increased efficiency of the PP tended to be offset by the PP running thru Lemieux exclusively. What really would have helped Jagr, compared to Lemieux or Lindros (his main potential competitiors for the Ross in '95), would be to have a full schedule, instead of the reduced 48 game slate.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's hard to say "what if he had played" if we assume he plays through the fatigue of radiation treatment. I mean, I have to think that if he could have played successfully he would have done that.

It's a bit like asking what if Orr had kept playing after his knees were shot. Who knows what he would have looked like... it probably wouldn't be what we are imagining. There's a good reason these guys decided not to try it.

If we're assuming he didn't have to deal with the medical issues? I don't often made sweeping assumptions about performance because the NHL has a way of throwing wild and seemingly random results at us every year. Mario in 1995 would be an exception. If he played healthy in 1995 I have absolutely zero doubt whatsoever that he would have dominated his way to a Ross and a Hart. It's hard to over-appreciate a fully healthy Mario. There are maybe 2 other players in history that I would be more certain of a spectacular (statistical) outcome.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Best case scenario, with about every benefit of the doubt given to Lemieux:

45 GP, 46.8 ESP, 45.7 PPP, 5.5 SHP = 98 Points

i would say that this being mario, if the best case scenario occurred and he was within four points of 100 going into game 48, there is a greater than 50% chance he guns for it wilt chamberlain-style and gets to 100.

it almost seems silly to say, being that he fell a single point short of 200 in 1989, but just knowing how much stats meant to mario, imagining that the refs would have helped him out at least a little, and given how lethal he was on the PP, i wouldn't bet against him putting up four that game.

on the other hand, i just looked up who that game would have been against. john vanbiesbrouck and the panthers, sixth stingiest team in the league that year and held jagr to one assist in that game, robbing him of an outright scoring title.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Automatic Art Ross

 

[Czech Your Math]

It's hard to say "what if he had played" if we assume he plays through the fatigue of radiation treatment. I mean, I have to think that if he could have played successfully he would have done that.

It's a bit like asking what if Orr had kept playing after his knees were shot. Who knows what he would have looked like... it probably wouldn't be what we are imagining. There's a good reason these guys decided not to try it.

If we're assuming he didn't have to deal with the medical issues? I don't often made sweeping assumptions about performance because the NHL has a way of throwing wild and seemingly random results at us every year. Mario in 1995 would be an exception. If he played healthy in 1995 I have absolutely zero doubt whatsoever that he would have dominated his way to a Ross and a Hart. It's hard to over-appreciate a fully healthy Mario. There are maybe 2 other players in history that I would be more certain of a spectacular (statistical) outcome.

I think we're assuming he still has health issues, but is healthy enough to play a good part of that season. Let's remember it's a shortened schedule, he would have had several months to get at least some of his necessary treatments and rest (last games played in April 1994, season doesn't start until late Jan. 1995), and he had played and performed well (at least a good deal of the time) in '93 while dealing with some combination of cancer, treatments, and severe back problems. We don't know that he couldn't have played in 1994-95, perhaps he made the wise decision to deal with his health issues and rest, before deciding whether to come back the following year. It's in the set of possibilities that he could have played in '94-95, but then immediately retired for good... or played a partial or near-full season in '96 and/or '97 and then retired for good. The possibilities are nearly endless, but we're not addressing seasons beyond '95 in this case (nor pretending that him playing in '95 wouldn't have affected his actual performance in the seasons following, if he even played in them).

i would say that this being mario, if the best case scenario occurred and he was within four points of 100 going into game 48, there is a greater than 50% chance he guns for it wilt chamberlain-style and gets to 100.

it almost seems silly to say, being that he fell a single point short of 200 in 1989, but just knowing how much stats meant to mario, imagining that the refs would have helped him out at least a little, and given how lethal he was on the PP, i wouldn't bet against him putting up four that game.

on the other hand, i just looked up who that game would have been against. john vanbiesbrouck and the panthers, sixth stingiest team in the league that year and held jagr to one assist in that game, robbing him of an outright scoring title.

That's sort of a natural inclination, but the 98 points is an extreme best case scenario, where the stars align for each uncertain variable (but given his health issues). There's only a small chance he would have been anywhere in that neighborhood IMO.

 

[The Panther]

Most likely, if he plays all the games, he wins the Art Ross. But I wouldn't say it's 100% certainty. We saw in 1994 that his production was already down, while in 1995-96 he was outscored at even-strength not only by Jagr but also by Peter Nedved (!). And 1995 was a tough, grueling schedule of a game every other day with little rest, with scoring totals for almost all stars noticeably reduced.

Czech Your Math's post (above) is the best way to look at it. A lot would have depended on PP's.

(It is interesting to speculate how Mario's being there would affected Jagr. He wouldn't have had that big break-out season as the League's top -- or, co-top, with Lindros -- player if Lemieux had been there.)

 

[Czech Your Math]

Most likely, if he plays all the games, he wins the Art Ross. But I wouldn't say it's 100% certainty. We saw in 1994 that his production was already down, while in 1995-96 he was outscored at even-strength not only by Jagr but also by Peter Nedved (!). And 1995 was a tough, grueling schedule of a game every other day with little rest, with scoring totals for almost all stars noticeably reduced.

Czech Your Math's post (above) is the best way to look at it. A lot would have depended on PP's.

(It is interesting to speculate how Mario's being there would affected Jagr. He wouldn't have had that big break-out season as the League's top -- or, co-top, with Lindros -- player if Lemieux had been there.)

He would have lost the spotlight for sure, but it's not even a given that Lemieux would have won the Ross if he played in '95 (with his health issues).
Lemieux's edge over Jagr was on the power play. There were significantly more PPOs in '96 than '95 (~0.52/game per team). Even then, late in the '96 season Lemieux had a very small edge over Jagr... like a couple of points, a handful at most... and then I think he scored 7 points against the expansion Sharks and solidified his grasp on the Ross... but that was with a less condensed schedule and several months of extra rest (compared to playing in '95). Jagr had come into his own in '94 in Lemieux's absence, and I think he would have emerged as the player he was in '95, regardless of whether Lemieux was there.

 

[K Fleur]

i would say that this being mario, if the best case scenario occurred and he was within four points of 100 going into game 48, there is a greater than 50% chance he guns for it wilt chamberlain-style and gets to 100.

it almost seems silly to say, being that he fell a single point short of 200 in 1989, but just knowing how much stats meant to mario, imagining that the refs would have helped him out at least a little, and given how lethal he was on the PP, i wouldn't bet against him putting up four that game.

on the other hand, i just looked up who that game would have been against. john vanbiesbrouck and the panthers, sixth stingiest team in the league that year and held jagr to one assist in that game, robbing him of an outright scoring title.

The 95 season was just a few months after Mario stormed out of the penalty box looking to f*** up Kerry Fraser(Ron Francis saved both guys that night). Can’t imagine Lemieux was high on the refs list of favorite players around this time.

 

[The Panther]

The 95 season was just a few months after Mario stormed out of the penalty box looking to f*** up Kerry Fraser(Ron Francis saved both guys that night). Can’t imagine Lemieux was high on the refs list of favorite players around this time.

I give Mario a lot of credit for that. Whereas young-Gretzky merely yapped at Fraser and got ejected with a misconduct (in 1982), late-prime Mario actually tried to kill Fraser.

I would pay money to see Lemieux destroy Fraser.