What if Lemieux was in his prime today?

[TheMoreYouKnow]

How much of the power play decline now is due to players having adapted to the new rule interpretations and how much of it is down to the refs falling back into old habits?

 

[tarheelhockey]

How much of the power play decline now is due to players having adapted to the new rule interpretations and how much of it is down to the refs falling back into old habits?

Just my point of view, it seems about 50/50. Players definitely don't hook and hold as much as they used to. Obstruction has more to do with body positioning, especially on dump-ins where the defenseman forces the forechecker out of the play momentarily. But at the same time, the refs aren't nearly as sensitive to defenders using their free hand or using their stick in a horizontal position. Just after the lockout, those penalties were extremely harsh and seemed to come out of nowhere over the smallest bit of contact. Now the refs don't really seem to be looking for them anymore.

 

[Seanconn*]

Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, knew NO LIMITS.

no red line, less clutching and grabbing. Mario could score over 200 points on his record year, maybe twice.


the who "teams score 250 goals on average" now thing is stupid. If Mario and Gretzky were playing on some of these high scoring teams, they would be scoring 300+ easily.

If Sid was on pace for 150 at one point, Mario and Wayne could still find ways to crack 200. If Wayne and Mario were playing in their primes, the whole game would change.. just like it did when Wayne first entered the NHL

 

[tarheelhockey]

the who "teams score 250 goals on average" now thing is stupid. If Mario and Gretzky were playing on some of these high scoring teams, they would be scoring 300+ easily.

It sounds like you've misread the argument. The highest scoring teams today barely crack 250. Vancouver was the league's top-scoring team, with the Art Ross winner and two of the top 5 goal scorers... and they scored only 262 goals. Ironically, Vancouver was also the lowest-scoring team in the league in 1989, led by Petri Skriko's 66 points ... and they still scored 251 goals as a team.

Now I'm willing to buy the idea that you could put Mario on that team and they would crack 300. But there are a couple of wrinkles to be considered:

1) Putting Mario on the ice means taking someone else off. You can't just say 262 + Mario = new scoring total. He would replace Henrik as the team's top center, so Henrik's production would go down (probably quite a lot considering the ice time Mario would take). The formula would be 262 + Mario - difference in Henrik's production, which would probably land them somewhere in the mid-300s.

2) The dynamics of the salary cap are tied to any question of "what if X played today?". Mario would be a $10m player if there ever was one. Vancouver has the cap space to handle him, but their annual profit is a little over $17m. Financial reality would probably lead them to drop a large contract in order to bring him on board, which probably means a Kesler or Hamhuis. So you have to subtract their production as well, dropping the team a little further back to the low 300s (never mind what that would mean for them on defense).

Realistically, we could peg the Canucks as scoring something like 320-330 goals with Mario on board (bearing in mind he would be joining THE top offensive team in the league). If he were to score over 200 points, that would represent over 60% of the team's scoring total... AFAIK the highest number in league history... and he would be doing it on a top-scoring team where such a feat is even more unlikely.

BTW, this isn't just about Mario, it's about any other player from history. Orr, Gretzky... it's just not feasible to put up a 200-point season in this league regardless of talent level.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Point Distribution

It sounds like you've misread the argument. The highest scoring teams today barely crack 250. Vancouver was the league's top-scoring team, with the Art Ross winner and two of the top 5 goal scorers... and they scored only 262 goals. Ironically, Vancouver was also the lowest-scoring team in the league in 1989, led by Petri Skriko's 66 points ... and they still scored 251 goals as a team.

Now I'm willing to buy the idea that you could put Mario on that team and they would crack 300. But there are a couple of wrinkles to be considered:

1) Putting Mario on the ice means taking someone else off. You can't just say 262 + Mario = new scoring total. He would replace Henrik as the team's top center, so Henrik's production would go down (probably quite a lot considering the ice time Mario would take). The formula would be 262 + Mario - difference in Henrik's production, which would probably land them somewhere in the mid-300s.

2) The dynamics of the salary cap are tied to any question of "what if X played today?". Mario would be a $10m player if there ever was one. Vancouver has the cap space to handle him, but their annual profit is a little over $17m. Financial reality would probably lead them to drop a large contract in order to bring him on board, which probably means a Kesler or Hamhuis. So you have to subtract their production as well, dropping the team a little further back to the low 300s (never mind what that would mean for them on defense).

Realistically, we could peg the Canucks as scoring something like 320-330 goals with Mario on board (bearing in mind he would be joining THE top offensive team in the league). If he were to score over 200 points, that would represent over 60% of the team's scoring total... AFAIK the highest number in league history... and he would be doing it on a top-scoring team where such a feat is even more unlikely.

BTW, this isn't just about Mario, it's about any other player from history. Orr, Gretzky... it's just not feasible to put up a 200-point season in this league regardless of talent level.

This is by far the most striking example of how point distribution amongst team mates has shifted to the elite players. The bottom tier simply cannot contribute without a well rounded skill set beyond short shift speed.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

It sounds like you've misread the argument. The highest scoring teams today barely crack 250. Vancouver was the league's top-scoring team, with the Art Ross winner and two of the top 5 goal scorers... and they scored only 262 goals. Ironically, Vancouver was also the lowest-scoring team in the league in 1989, led by Petri Skriko's 66 points ... and they still scored 251 goals as a team.

Now I'm willing to buy the idea that you could put Mario on that team and they would crack 300. But there are a couple of wrinkles to be considered:

1) Putting Mario on the ice means taking someone else off. You can't just say 262 + Mario = new scoring total. He would replace Henrik as the team's top center, so Henrik's production would go down (probably quite a lot considering the ice time Mario would take). The formula would be 262 + Mario - difference in Henrik's production, which would probably land them somewhere in the mid-300s.

2) The dynamics of the salary cap are tied to any question of "what if X played today?". Mario would be a $10m player if there ever was one. Vancouver has the cap space to handle him, but their annual profit is a little over $17m. Financial reality would probably lead them to drop a large contract in order to bring him on board, which probably means a Kesler or Hamhuis. So you have to subtract their production as well, dropping the team a little further back to the low 300s (never mind what that would mean for them on defense).

Realistically, we could peg the Canucks as scoring something like 320-330 goals with Mario on board (bearing in mind he would be joining THE top offensive team in the league). If he were to score over 200 points, that would represent over 60% of the team's scoring total... AFAIK the highest number in league history... and he would be doing it on a top-scoring team where such a feat is even more unlikely.

BTW, this isn't just about Mario, it's about any other player from history. Orr, Gretzky... it's just not feasible to put up a 200-point season in this league regardless of talent level.

Good post.

Everyone seems to be so rapped up in point totals. You can't just judge a player by points anymore (never really could), there's so much more to look at. It's sort of alarming how anyone could come to the conclusion Lemieux would score anything higher than 160 in the league today, let alone absurd totals like 180 or 200 points. They're simply just ignoring a whole lot of facts and over glorifying Lemieux. He would likely be somewhere between 120-140 today and I still don't think a lot of people understand how amazing that would be.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

Not sure about that. Another explanation is that Lemieux thrived on the power play, and Pittsburgh's power-play opportunities dropped massively between the '95-'96 season and the '96-'97 season—from 420 opportunities to 339—and, as a result, the team scored 74 fewer PP goals. (It didn't help that Jagr was out for part of the year, either.)

All that had a noticeable effect on Lemieux's production—he scored 16 fewer PP goals and 26 fewer PP assists, which pretty much accounts for his entire drop in points between the two years. (His even-strength play didn't tail off at all, suggesting he wasn't having much of an off-year.)

--

It'd be great if someone could do a more rigorous statistical analysis, but I have a strong hunch that overall scoring—and scoring for the top superstars, especially—depends pretty heavily on how often penalties are getting called. The year Lemieux put up 199 points, in '88-'89, Pittsburgh went on the power play a whopping 491 times. This year, for comparison's sake, Pittsburgh was only on the power play 311 times—less than in Lemieux's "off year." No way that doesn't have an impact.

Lemieux today would still be the best center in the league by a fair margin and do ridiculous things, but I'd bet his numbers (for this season, at least) would be closer to that 122-point year than the 199-point year.

This.

In 1996 the average team got 413 power-play chances.
In 1997 the average team got 335 power-play chances.
...
In 2011 the average team got 291 power-play chances.

The average kept going down in the dead-puck era, spiked up after the lock-out (in 2006 the average team was getting 480 power play chances), but it's been going down ever since, and by now we're basically back to the dead-puck era in terms of penalties being called. Individual teams do deviate from these trends, but usually not by much.

I definitely agree that a team with Mario Lemieux might get somewhat more chances than the average team (because, like you say, he was so hard to stop and teams had to hook, slash, and hold him to have any chance), but there seem to be real and significant league-wide trends in officiating that have a big effect on scoring. There's only so much one player can do to change that.

--

You can see this in the current NHL era. Immediately after the lockout, refs were calling penalties left and right, power plays were much more common, and all of the sudden lots of players were putting up career numbers—Thornton and Crosby had their 120 point years, Alfredsson and Staal hit 100, Brian Gionta was nearly a 50 goal scorer, etc.

But penalties have been getting rarer and rarer since then—again, we're back to dead-puck-era levels of power plays now, and I think that partly explains why 100 points and 50 goals have become so uncommon again. (Which I also think underscores what a ludicrously good year Crosby was having before getting his head whacked.)

This.

I agree and ahve said that i think Wayne would be affectd the least due motsly to his vision as Both Orr and Mario dsiplayed a significant physical and skill adavantage on their peers. greatzy has the best "it" factor, that undefineable ability to do more, slow down the game more and see teh paly before it ahppens than any other player that i ahve ever seen.

That being said I think it would even be hard for him to get over 150 points on any regular basis in a 2010 NHL. 130-140 seems more reasonable and likely given the difficulty his wingers would have in converting the chances Wayne provided them. also the extremely close checking and better ability and systems of defensive teams would cut into his total. The fact is that we will never really know for sure but I would lean closer to the 130, 140 mark than the 160,170 mark that some are suggesting.

The fact is that we have only seen 3 seasons of over 120 points in the post lockout era and to me it is in large part because of the difficulty in scoring not due to any lack of talent in the NHL today

To expand on that, 2 of them came in the 05-06 season where scoring was higher, and Crosby's came the year after, and half his points were on the powerplay (61 pp 59 es).

Only three players have cracked 110 since the 07-08 season, and Ovechkin is the only one to do it twice.

Also to everyone who thinks Lemieux would take advantage of all these powerplays today, look at how many penalty minutes were called in Pittsburgh games in 2000-01 compared to any team last year. Just choose whatever year you want to see here from 97-98 and on.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/app

1573 penalty minutes were called in Pittsburgh games in 2000-01 the year of Lemieux's comeback, and the top team last year had 1357.

And that.

Anyone want to try and explain how he'd manage to score above 160 today? It's just not reasonable to think that.

 

[007]

I think the best way to measure this would be to look at Crosby, then add a fair bunch of points to his best total. I'm thinking Lemieux would break 150 and even 160 points. Here's my thinking:

1) We're talking about Lemieux in his prime -- Crosby's still insanely young for all that he has accomplished, and will get even better (God willing he doesn't get injured);

2) I think that Lemieux was even more talented than Crosby, and the worst you can argue is that Lemieux was "only" as talented as Crosby; however, Lemieux had physical gifts of size and reach that Crosby never will;

3) This might be stretching the hypothesis too far, but if he were playing today, Lemieux would have no choice but to have a healthier lifestyle. Players in general are much, much more health-conscious today than they were in the '80s and '90s -- I'd say the gap is almost as great as it was between the '90s and the '70s.

The only thing that knock's Lemieux back a bit, is that there wouldn't be a player as fearsomely talented as Jagr by his side.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

In 1996 the average team got 413 power-play chances.
In 1997 the average team got 335 power-play chances.
...
In 2011 the average team got 291 power-play chances.

The average kept going down in the dead-puck era, spiked up after the lock-out (in 2006 the average team was getting 480 power play chances), but it's been going down ever since, and by now we're basically back to the dead-puck era in terms of penalties being called. Individual teams do deviate from these trends, but usually not by much.

I definitely agree that a team with Mario Lemieux might get somewhat more chances than the average team (because, like you say, he was so hard to stop and teams had to hook, slash, and hold him to have any chance), but there seem to be real and significant league-wide trends in officiating that have a big effect on scoring. There's only so much one player can do to change that.

--

You can see this in the current NHL era. Immediately after the lockout, refs were calling penalties left and right, power plays were much more common, and all of the sudden lots of players were putting up career numbers—Thornton and Crosby had their 120 point years, Alfredsson and Staal hit 100, Brian Gionta was nearly a 50 goal scorer, etc.

But penalties have been getting rarer and rarer since then—again, we're back to dead-puck-era levels of power plays now, and I think that partly explains why 100 points and 50 goals have become so uncommon again. (Which I also think underscores what a ludicrously good year Crosby was having before getting his head whacked.)

thanks for that. i didn't realize that penalties have decreased so much since 2006. you've definitely changed my mind on mario's offensive ceiling (speaking only about numbers) if he were playing today.

 

[Unaffiliated]

In 1996 the average team got 413 power-play chances.
In 1997 the average team got 335 power-play chances.
...
In 2011 the average team got 291 power-play chances.

The average kept going down in the dead-puck era, spiked up after the lock-out (in 2006 the average team was getting 480 power play chances), but it's been going down ever since, and by now we're basically back to the dead-puck era in terms of penalties being called. Individual teams do deviate from these trends, but usually not by much.

I definitely agree that a team with Mario Lemieux might get somewhat more chances than the average team (because, like you say, he was so hard to stop and teams had to hook, slash, and hold him to have any chance), but there seem to be real and significant league-wide trends in officiating that have a big effect on scoring. There's only so much one player can do to change that.

--

You can see this in the current NHL era. Immediately after the lockout, refs were calling penalties left and right, power plays were much more common, and all of the sudden lots of players were putting up career numbers—Thornton and Crosby had their 120 point years, Alfredsson and Staal hit 100, Brian Gionta was nearly a 50 goal scorer, etc.

But penalties have been getting rarer and rarer since then—again, we're back to dead-puck-era levels of power plays now, and I think that partly explains why 100 points and 50 goals have become so uncommon again. (Which I also think underscores what a ludicrously good year Crosby was having before getting his head whacked.)

what was the average power-play chances in 00-01?

(year that 37-year-old mario scored at a ~67 goal, ~144 pt pace, and also part of dead puck era)

edit: just noticed clickable links -- checking now

edit2: 376 -- quite a bit

 

[Unaffiliated]

going off my previous post with mario scoring at ~67-144 pt pace during a year with 376 PP opportunities, as a 36/37-year-old, i don't have much trouble believing he could easily be at 160+ directly after the lockout.
[although admittedly playing with jagr]


after all, a non-prime crosby was at 120 pts that year, as pointed out.




imo, PEAK lemieux happened in the year he was diagnosed with hodgkin's, and mario's 199-point season happened 4 years before that.

 

[lextune]

They're simply just ignoring a whole lot of facts and over glorifying Lemieux. He would likely be somewhere between 120-140 today and I still don't think a lot of people understand how amazing that would be.

Oh yeah, right up there with Crosby and Sedin. Real "amazing".

 

[Seanconn*]

It sounds like you've misread the argument. The highest scoring teams today barely crack 250. Vancouver was the league's top-scoring team, with the Art Ross winner and two of the top 5 goal scorers... and they scored only 262 goals. Ironically, Vancouver was also the lowest-scoring team in the league in 1989, led by Petri Skriko's 66 points ... and they still scored 251 goals as a team.

Now I'm willing to buy the idea that you could put Mario on that team and they would crack 300. But there are a couple of wrinkles to be considered:

1) Putting Mario on the ice means taking someone else off. You can't just say 262 + Mario = new scoring total. He would replace Henrik as the team's top center, so Henrik's production would go down (probably quite a lot considering the ice time Mario would take). The formula would be 262 + Mario - difference in Henrik's production, which would probably land them somewhere in the mid-300s.

2) The dynamics of the salary cap are tied to any question of "what if X played today?". Mario would be a $10m player if there ever was one. Vancouver has the cap space to handle him, but their annual profit is a little over $17m. Financial reality would probably lead them to drop a large contract in order to bring him on board, which probably means a Kesler or Hamhuis. So you have to subtract their production as well, dropping the team a little further back to the low 300s (never mind what that would mean for them on defense).

Realistically, we could peg the Canucks as scoring something like 320-330 goals with Mario on board (bearing in mind he would be joining THE top offensive team in the league). If he were to score over 200 points, that would represent over 60% of the team's scoring total... AFAIK the highest number in league history... and he would be doing it on a top-scoring team where such a feat is even more unlikely.

BTW, this isn't just about Mario, it's about any other player from history. Orr, Gretzky... it's just not feasible to put up a 200-point season in this league regardless of talent level.

dude, you're just plain wrong. To say it is not feasible for Mario or Gretzky to reach 200 points in todays game is ridiculous.

Crosby was on pace for around 150 points at one point this season. You're absolutely off your rocker if you think "ruh oh" if we gotta add Mario , we gotta say goodbye to Ryan Kesler. which will mean a dip in production.... WRONG.

Lemieux put some of his biggest numbers up with the biggest no names... Kevin Stevens, Joe Mullen.

you're absolutely MAD if you think Mario has no shot at getting to 200 points, because teams would have to say good bye to players like Kesler, or even someone like Toews.

I really don't think you have much of an idea of the type of player Mario was... or you put too much stock in the players of today. Mario would reach 200 points... maybe only once, but he could definitely do it in todays league as a 23-25 year old in his prime... and he wouldn't need to be on an all star team to do it, either.

I think a lot of people are forgetting Mario put up his best numbers WITHOUT Jaromir Jagr. but with the likes of Joe Mullen and Kevin Stevens.

Imo, Mario is the perfect made player for today's game. He'd outscore Gretzky on a consistent basis if they entered the league as 18 year olds today...

 

[Blades of Glory]

Lemieux put some of his biggest numbers up with the biggest no names... Kevin Stevens, Joe Mullen.


I think a lot of people are forgetting Mario put up his best numbers WITHOUT Jaromir Jagr. but with the likes of Joe Mullen and Kevin Stevens.

In 1992, The Hockey News listed the players they deemed to be true "superstars." The list featured Gretzky, Lemieux, Bourque, Roy, Sakic, Hull, Chelios, Yzerman, and Stevens. No, they were not referring to Scott Stevens. Kevin Stevens was the best left wing in the game from 1991 to 1993. He absolutely carried the Penguins when Lemieux was injured in 1991, during both the regular season and the playoffs. He could put the offense on his back for weeks at a time because of his ability to create offense individually. Stevens was simply a great player. It's unfortunate that he succumbed to injuries and substance abuse.

 

[Irato99]

Imo, Mario is the perfect made player for today's game. He'd outscore Gretzky on a consistent basis if they entered the league as 18 year olds today...

I don't think so, especially since Gretzky was a lot better than Mario at 18.

 

[Passchendaele]

Lemieux put some of his biggest numbers up with the biggest no names... Kevin Stevens, Joe Mullen.

Joe Mullen has 500 career goals and is in the HHOF, for the record.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

Oh yeah, right up there with Crosby and Sedin. Real "amazing".

Crosby and Sedin haven't scored more than 112 points in the past four years (let alone between 120-140 as I mentioned). A big part of that is because, you know... penalties are decreasing. Lemieux's bread and butter. Try and keep up with the thread.

 

[Unaffiliated]

Crosby and Sedin haven't scored more than 112 points in the past four years (let alone between 120-140 as I mentioned). A big part of that is because, you know... penalties are decreasing. Lemieux's bread and butter. Try and keep up with the thread.

I know it's not what's asked by the thread, but if he was in his prime now, he would have been at least close to his prime in 05-06, 06-07.




A little off-topic, but this seems to me like what Lemieux would be like all the time with his reach/skill and the lack of clutch/grab:

 

[hatrick51*]

140 points consistently. 160 in a Huge year. If Ovechkin can hit 65 a couple of years ago and Crosby can score 32 goals in 41 games than Lemieux should be good for 70-80 per year with 70-80 assists on top and thats every season.

 

[lextune]

Crosby and Sedin haven't scored more than 112 points in the past four years (let alone between 120-140 as I mentioned). A big part of that is because, you know... penalties are decreasing. Lemieux's bread and butter. Try and keep up with the thread.

You try and keep up little fella. (Since you decided to play the "mocking" card; quite feebly I might add).

As I said, (since you aren't keeping up; [makes for a real grown up conversation huh?]), the biggest factor in my opinion is not how many goals are being scored, or how many power plays are being handed out, but instead it is the type of play, and type of goals, that are scored by today's skill players.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

I know it's not what's asked by the thread, but if he was in his prime now, he would have been at least close to his prime in 05-06, 06-07.




A little off-topic, but this seems to me like what Lemieux would be like all the time with his reach/skill and the lack of clutch/grab:

In 05-06, a prime healthy Lemieux playing with Jagr would almost certainly have scored 140 points.

Then again put peak Crosby and Ovechkin in the same situation and I think they could do the same. Anything between 120-160 is a matter of opinion what he would score in today's game, anything higher than that is to not recognize the state of the modern NHL.

 

[hatrick51*]

Imagine a 6 ft 4 Pavel Datsyuk with more talent. That was what Lemieux was. He would run the league. Even more than Ovechkin and Crosby do already.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

This is by far the most striking example of how point distribution amongst team mates has shifted to the elite players. The bottom tier simply cannot contribute without a well rounded skill set beyond short shift speed.

IMO this is because the talent is spread far too thin among 30 teams. Look at the Habs. Plekanec is a genuine first line centre who averages about 60 points a year. IMO he is talented enough to score 90 points a year with 2 top six wingers. Cammy can be top 6 but he doesn't always play top six. AK is just to inconsistent to be top 6, but shows flashes. And then there is Gomez. A second line centre scoring 7 goals and 38 points? Unacceptable. And he plays with Gionta.

 

[habsjunkie2*]

dude, you're just plain wrong. To say it is not feasible for Mario or Gretzky to reach 200 points in todays game is ridiculous.

Crosby was on pace for around 150 points at one point this season. You're absolutely off your rocker if you think "ruh oh" if we gotta add Mario , we gotta say goodbye to Ryan Kesler. which will mean a dip in production.... WRONG.

Lemieux put some of his biggest numbers up with the biggest no names... Kevin Stevens, Joe Mullen.

you're absolutely MAD if you think Mario has no shot at getting to 200 points, because teams would have to say good bye to players like Kesler, or even someone like Toews.

I really don't think you have much of an idea of the type of player Mario was... or you put too much stock in the players of today. Mario would reach 200 points... maybe only once, but he could definitely do it in todays league as a 23-25 year old in his prime... and he wouldn't need to be on an all star team to do it, either.

I think a lot of people are forgetting Mario put up his best numbers WITHOUT Jaromir Jagr. but with the likes of Joe Mullen and Kevin Stevens.

Imo, Mario is the perfect made player for today's game. He'd outscore Gretzky on a consistent basis if they entered the league as 18 year olds today...

Wrong.

 

[Rhiessan71]

In 05-06, a prime healthy Lemieux playing with Jagr would almost certainly have scored 140 points.

Then again put peak Crosby and Ovechkin in the same situation and I think they could do the same. Anything between 120-160 is a matter of opinion what he would score in today's game, anything higher than that is to not recognize the state of the modern NHL.

....and you continuing to put Sid and OV in the same class as Wayne and Mario, clearly shows that your own recognition skills are juuuuuuuust a little lacking themselves.