What if Lemieux was in his prime today?

[Big Phil]

He'd be the best player in the league for certain. 130 points would be a low-end season.

This pretty much. His last season before his retirement saw him garner 122 points and it was an "off year" for him. This was at the height of the crease rule, clutch and grabbing and with no two line passes. Lemieux was the best player in the NHL when he retired in 1997. He would be the best today and there wouldn't be much argument. Crosby's head is scrambled right now, Malkin plays when he wants to and Ovechkin has never quite hit the Lemieux level either. This leaves the next best in the NHL as Stamkos, Sedins, St. Louis etc. Nice talent, but it's similar to when Stastny, Hawerchuk etc. were the next level below Gretzky in a way. No doubt Lemieux still dominates the NHL.

 

[tarheelhockey]

How much did he smoke? How do you know he ate junk?

Lemieux was notorious for liking junk food. Once time an interviewer asked him what he did to stay in shape over the offseason -- his response was "Starting a month before the season, I stop ordering french fries with my club sandwich".

As for how much he smoked, I have heard that early in his career he was smoking a half-pack a day of Marlboro Lights. He eventually quit after a few seasons.

 

[lextune]

As great as Lemiuex was it's highly improbable that he would ever score 200 in today's game even if a coach let him cherry pick.

my best guess is the 140ish mark depending on team, teammates and situation and that would be peak.

Lol....yeah. Crosby 120, Lemieux 140.

Mario towers over Crosby talent-wise and the league favors talent more now than ever before.

Thinking that Lemieux would only put up 20 more points than the likes of Crosby is the height of absurdity.

 

[Rhiessan71]

I think it's funny when people say the league is faster now as a reason why Mario and Wayne wouldn't be as effective.

Wayne and Mario made people play at whatever speed they damn well wanted. It was another thing that made them so special.
They never reacted to you, you reacted to them period.

A lot of younger folk just don't realise how watered down and robotic the league is now for the sake of that speed.

 

[lextune]

I've long been on record explaining that it is not only "how many goals" are being scored in any given "era", (although an utterly broken down, old, Mario still scored at a ridiculous pace in a lower scoring era than today), but also the "type of goals" that are scored.

The kinds of plays and goals that Mario made/scored are perfectly suited to how we see the game today. The only way he was stopped are all penalties now.

If he was in his prime now, (as opposed to '89), he would score more than he did then.

 

[lextune]

A lot of younger folk just don't realise how watered down and robotic the league is now for the sake of that speed.

Well said.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I've long been on record explaining that it is not only "how many goals" are being scored in any given "era", (although an utterly broken down, old, Mario still scored at a ridiculous pace in a lower scoring era than today), but also the "type of goals" that are scored.

The kinds of plays and goals that Mario made/scored are perfectly suited to how we see the game today. The only way he was stopped are all penalties now.

If he was in his prime now, (as opposed to '89), he would score more than he did then.

The first two paragraphs are true. That last line, though, is not accounting for the difference in goaltending in the current league. There is no way any player, from any era, would score 85 goals in this league. Let alone achieving that feat while also dominating in the assists category as well.

As someone else said, a high-scoring team today scored about 250 goals in a season. There's no way even a prime Lemieux goes out and registers more than 200 points.

 

[Rhiessan71]

The first two paragraphs are true. That last line, though, is not accounting for the difference in goaltending in the current league. There is no way any player, from any era, would score 85 goals in this league. Let alone achieving that feat while also dominating in the assists category as well.

As someone else said, a high-scoring team today scored about 250 goals in a season. There's no way even a prime Lemieux goes out and registers more than 200 points.

Better to just leave exactly how many points Wayne or Mario would get, out of it. It only leads to silliness on both sides every time.
Better just to say that Wayne and Mario would be by and far the best players in the league by a wider margin then there is between anyone else currently and leave it at that imo.

All I know and believe is that if Sid can pace himself for 130-150 points, Wayne and Mario could pace for noticeably more.
Of that I have no doubt.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Very True

I think it's funny when people say the league is faster now as a reason why Mario and Wayne wouldn't be as effective.

Wayne and Mario made people play at whatever speed they damn well wanted. It was another thing that made them so special.
They never reacted to you, you reacted to them period.

A lot of younger folk just don't realise how watered down and robotic the league is now for the sake of that speed.

Very true.

Both Gretzky and Lemieux like Howe and other greats before them understood that offensively and defensively the play had to flow thru specific areas. They understood the time and space elements of each part of the rink.

Speed today often produces negative results. Too often players accomplish nothing with their efforts but they manage to do it faster.

 

[edog37]

I think it's funny when people say the league is faster now as a reason why Mario and Wayne wouldn't be as effective.

Wayne and Mario made people play at whatever speed they damn well wanted. It was another thing that made them so special.
They never reacted to you, you reacted to them period.

A lot of younger folk just don't realise how watered down and robotic the league is now for the sake of that speed.

couldn't have put it any better. A lot of people on this board never saw prime Lemieux play. I had the pleasure of growing up & watching him in his prime. While it is true that Lemieux's work habits were below the bar, so was the rest of the league at that time. His work habits changed when he made his 2nd comeback & the results were there. A prime Lemieux today with good work habits would have absolutely destroyed this watered down league. 220+ would have easily been within reach. Some on here mentioned Ovechkin, Stamkos & even Crosby in the same breath. Not even close. I'm a huge Crosby fan, but he can't even hold Lemieux's skates. Stamkos & Ovechkin are goal scorers, but not game changers the way Lemieux was. Lemieux was the type of player who could decide games on his own. A prime Lemieux today with Crosby & Malkin on the team would have meant utter annihilation for the rest of the league....

 

[tarheelhockey]

Better to just leave exactly how many points Wayne or Mario would get, out of it. It only leads to silliness on both sides every time.
Better just to say that Wayne and Mario would be by and far the best players in the league by a wider margin then there is between anyone else currently and leave it at that imo.

I agree that it's better not to get into specifics, but at the same time there are realistic predictions and then there are unrealistic predictions. The idea that Lemieux could singlehandedly outscore 4 or 5 teams is pretty far out in left field. Even prime Gretzky never came close to outscoring any team, let alone several in one season. Scoring 200 points in today's game would be equivalent to scoring around 280 in 1989, something that was never even considered a possibility in Lemieux's healthiest and most dominant seasons.

All I know and believe is that if Sid can pace himself for 130-150 points, Wayne and Mario could pace for noticeably more.
Of that I have no doubt.

Crosby has never come close to 150 points in a season. This season he was on pace for 130, which would have easily been his career high (and his first time near that range since his sophomore season in a higher-scoring league). Could he have continued that pace? Maybe, but on the day Crosby was injured we also had Stamkos on pace for 67 goals.

IMO, a realistic prediction would be for a prime Mario or Gretzky to land in the 130-160 range depending on their circumstances. Higher than 160 is getting into an unrealistic range for any player.

 

[Mansfield]

Difficult to say. I'd think he'd put up at least 130. Don't see him doing more than 175 though.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

What if Lemieux was in his prime today?

same as when he played, he would tear the league apart.

it's really hard to say what his prime totals would be. my guess is if ovechkin can score 65 in a peak year, mario could hit 70 in his best year. i don't see him getting more than 75 in a season though; the goaltending just seems too advanced. with the rise of the shot blocking goalie, there are times when there is literally no possible shot that can beat a goaltender, because he's covered the entire net. in this situation, mario would probably pick up an assist instead, but if it were still 1988, that would have been a goal.

150 points seems like a good average for a 5-8 year prime, presuming health.

i seriously doubt he'd hit 85 and 199, or whatever he was on pace for in '93, but he might actually be a more dominant player than he was in his actual prime.

- he may have been the deadliest power play threat of all time, and with the increase in penalties, plus the rule where you get an offensive zone faceoff to start all power plays, that could only help him.

- i think he'd be more durable in today's game due to the rule changes. but on top of that, at times the only way to stop him was to have two guys jump on his back. that wouldn't happen now, and he'd be tougher to stop, let alone injure. and he would still be huge by today's standards, so you can't use the ridiculous "humans have evolved in the last 15 years" argument.

- as someone above mentioned, he would be a far better conditioned athlete today than he was when he played. his opposition obviously would be too, but i suspect mario getting closer to 100% out of his body would be a much bigger advantage than the difference between an average '11 shutdown center getting 100% out of his body and an average '88 shutdown center who spends all summer doing kegstands. just thinking mathematically, 20% more lemieux is probably > 40% more of almost anyone else, right?

 

[overpass]

There aren't more penalties and power plays today than when Lemieux played. This isn't 2006 anymore.

Several of his big years {1988, 1993, 1996} had a ton of power plays as part of the NHLs periodic obstruction crackdowns.

 

[shazariahl]

As many others have said, I think 130-150 is reasonable; maybe peaking at around 160 at his absolute best. But as mentioned, numbers aren't really important. He would carve this league up in today's age just like he did in his actual playing days.

 

[Rhiessan71]

I always feel it's a little easier to make a prediction for Wayne over Mario.
With Wayne, you pretty much start at around 100 assists and then estimate how many goals he would get.
Mario on the other hand was more of a pure goal scorer and his assists varied greatly over the years.
That makes him harder to predict.

I'll just say this though, if Mario was playing in his prime today, we wouldn't be waiting and wondering in the last week of the season whether anyone would score 50 heh.
Maybe if he missed 1/3 of the season or something, then it might get interesting

 

[lextune]

As many others have said, I think 130-150 is reasonable

How is that "reasonable"; when it flies in the face of reason?

Again; we are talking about a league where Crosby put up 120, where Henrik Sedin put up 112. You do not think that a prime Mario would tower over their numbers?

....and I am a well known Crosby lover.

 

[tarheelhockey]

- as someone above mentioned, he would be a far better conditioned athlete today than he was when he played. his opposition obviously would be too, but i suspect mario getting closer to 100% out of his body would be a much bigger advantage than the difference between an average '11 shutdown center getting 100% out of his body and an average '88 shutdown center who spends all summer doing kegstands. just thinking mathematically, 20% more lemieux is probably > 40% more of almost anyone else, right?

The bigger question IMO is how he would perform against contemporary defensemen. They're generally a lot more mobile than they used to be, and the low-end talents are better hockey players than the low-end talents of the 1980s. Add the fact that they really don't rush the puck anymore, and are often coached to sit back and block shots all night rather than challenge the puckhandler, and you have a lot less opportunity to embarrass them the way Mario used to do.

To me, between the improvement in goalies and the generally different usage in defensemen it simply isn't possible to score at a crazy pace. When players like Ovechkin and Stamkos go on extended scoring droughts, it says something about the quality of defense in today's league. Mario of course is at a different level than those guys, but it's hard to imagine him putting up 2 ppg when there aren plenty of teams out there who struggle to break 2.5 ppg as an entire group.

How is that "reasonable"; when it flies in the face of reason?

Again; we are talking about a league where Crosby put up 120, where Henrik Sedin put up 112. You do not think that a prime Mario would tower over their numbers?

Well if he hit 150 that would be a 33% improvement over Crosby's career high (which was in a higher-scoring league than today) so that is pretty much towering over everyone else, right?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Size vs Size

The bigger question IMO is how he would perform against contemporary defensemen. They're generally a lot more mobile than they used to be, and the low-end talents are better hockey players than the low-end talents of the 1980s. Add the fact that they really don't rush the puck anymore, and are often coached to sit back and block shots all night rather than challenge the puckhandler, and you have a lot less opportunity to embarrass them the way Mario used to do.

To me, between the improvement in goalies and the generally different usage in defensemen it simply isn't possible to score at a crazy pace. When players like Ovechkin and Stamkos go on extended scoring droughts, it says something about the quality of defense in today's league. Mario of course is at a different level than those guys, but it's hard to imagine him putting up 2 ppg when there aren plenty of teams out there who struggle to break 2.5 ppg as an entire group.



Well if he hit 150 that would be a 33% improvement over Crosby's career high (which was in a higher-scoring league than today) so that is pretty much towering over everyone else, right?

Today's defensemen have a marked advantage over today's forwards in terms of size and wing span which allows them to establish a much larger dead zone circumference than in the past. So you have relatively immobile d-men like Hal Gill, Zdeno Chara who look good because they are basically playing against shrimps.

Sidney Crosby is 5' 11", Stamkos is a generous 6'1", Ovechkin is 6'2" but plays short because he tends to keep the puck close to the body.The rest of the league features offensive talents that are smurfs - Briere, Giroux, types. Or the Stamkos, Ovechkin types who keep the puck close to the body.

Mario Lemieux was a tall 6'4" with a longer reach than most men his size plus he was the only player his size who could dangle with the puck AND he kept the puck as far away from his body as possible while retaining the ability to bring it in close to protect it.

This rarer ability combined with speed - he was faster than he looked, allowed him then and would allow him know to neutralize the advantages of tall d-men, change passing and shooting lanes or angles, thereby generating scoring from situations that none of the players today can. Plus Lemieux was a RHS center who loved to set-up on the LW boards, midway, giving him a greater angle to the key scoring areas as a passer and shooter

 

[Unaffiliated]

well, imagine if pavel datsyuk was the size of eric lindros and had sakic's shot and crosby's passing and vision.

 

[Long Duk Dong]

If he was born in 85 instead of 65, there is no doubt he would destroy the league. His biggest fault was conditioning. Training has improved exponentially since then. He'd still have his size and brain, and would adjust his opponents to do whatever he felt like doing in a game.

The size of todays players isn't as much as an issue. When Mario was drafted, he was considered huge. He was never really fast, but he was deceptive. What someone else posted, he would control the tempo of the game, dumb it down, and take advantage. Crosby/Ovy don't do that. Malkin does on a very rare occasion.

I'm not sure on point totals, but I'm guessing he'd be probably 30-40 ahead of everyone else.

Lemieux was as close to a perfect hockey player as one could be.

 

[Gobo]

He'd **** on the league. 170 points on average.

 

[Dissonance]

His last season before his retirement saw him garner 122 points and it was an "off year" for him.

Not sure about that. Another explanation is that Lemieux thrived on the power play, and Pittsburgh's power-play opportunities dropped massively between the '95-'96 season and the '96-'97 season—from 420 opportunities to 339—and, as a result, the team scored 74 fewer PP goals. (It didn't help that Jagr was out for part of the year, either.)

All that had a noticeable effect on Lemieux's production—he scored 16 fewer PP goals and 26 fewer PP assists, which pretty much accounts for his entire drop in points between the two years. (His even-strength play didn't tail off at all, suggesting he wasn't having much of an off-year.)

--

It'd be great if someone could do a more rigorous statistical analysis, but I have a strong hunch that overall scoring—and scoring for the top superstars, especially—depends pretty heavily on how often penalties are getting called. The year Lemieux put up 199 points, in '88-'89, Pittsburgh went on the power play a whopping 491 times. This year, for comparison's sake, Pittsburgh was only on the power play 311 times—less than in Lemieux's "off year." No way that doesn't have an impact.

Lemieux today would still be the best center in the league by a fair margin and do ridiculous things, but I'd bet his numbers (for this season, at least) would be closer to that 122-point year than the 199-point year.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Not sure about that. Another explanation is that Lemieux thrived on the power play, and Pittsburgh's power-play opportunities dropped massively between the '95-'96 season and the '96-'97 season—from 420 opportunities to 339—and, as a result, the team scored 74 fewer PP goals. (It didn't help that Jagr was out for part of the year, either.)

All that had a noticeable effect on Lemieux's production—he scored 16 fewer PP goals and 26 fewer PP assists, which pretty much accounts for his entire drop in points between the two years. (His even-strength play didn't tail off at all, suggesting he wasn't having much of an off-year.)

--

It'd be great if someone could do a more rigorous statistical analysis, but I have a strong hunch that overall scoring—and scoring for the top superstars, especially—depends pretty heavily on how often penalties are getting called. The year Lemieux put up 199 points, in '88-'89, Pittsburgh went on the power play a whopping 491 times. This year, for comparison's sake, Pittsburgh was only on the power play 311 times—less than in Lemieux's "off year." No way that doesn't have an impact.

Lemieux today would still be the best center in the league by a fair margin and do ridiculous things, but I'd bet his numbers (for this season, at least) would be closer to that 122-point year than the 199-point year.

definitely lemieux thrived on the PP. there may never have been anyone better on the PP than him. i don't know if the league-wide numbers back me up, but i do suspect that the drop in penalties has a lot to do with the way the game was transitioning into the DPE.

lemieux was such an unstoppable force that he was one of, if not the, greatest player ever at drawing penalties. it may not be 2006 anymore, but i think he'd draw a lot more penalties today than in that last "off" year of his. this year's penguins didn't draw a lot of penalties, but after crosby they weren't exactly a dangerous team. how many more would they have drawn with mario in the lineup? what are today's league-wide penalty numbers vs. 1997?

 

[Dissonance]

how many more would they have drawn with mario in the lineup? what are today's league-wide penalty numbers vs. 1997?

In 1996 the average team got 413 power-play chances.
In 1997 the average team got 335 power-play chances.
...
In 2011 the average team got 291 power-play chances.

The average kept going down in the dead-puck era, spiked up after the lock-out (in 2006 the average team was getting 480 power play chances), but it's been going down ever since, and by now we're basically back to the dead-puck era in terms of penalties being called. Individual teams do deviate from these trends, but usually not by much.

I definitely agree that a team with Mario Lemieux might get somewhat more chances than the average team (because, like you say, he was so hard to stop and teams had to hook, slash, and hold him to have any chance), but there seem to be real and significant league-wide trends in officiating that have a big effect on scoring. There's only so much one player can do to change that.

--

You can see this in the current NHL era. Immediately after the lockout, refs were calling penalties left and right, power plays were much more common, and all of the sudden lots of players were putting up career numbers—Thornton and Crosby had their 120 point years, Alfredsson and Staal hit 100, Brian Gionta was nearly a 50 goal scorer, etc.

But penalties have been getting rarer and rarer since then—again, we're back to dead-puck-era levels of power plays now, and I think that partly explains why 100 points and 50 goals have become so uncommon again. (Which I also think underscores what a ludicrously good year Crosby was having before getting his head whacked.)