What Do You Think? Draft Pick Point Value Charts

[Beerfish]

if anyone cares, there's a new pick chart value that has been published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1329&context=jqas

An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance

Michael Schuckers

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the National Football League Pick Value Chart and propose an
alternative. The current Pick Value Chart was created approximately 20 years ago and has been
used since to determine the value of draft selections for trading of draft selections. For this paper,
we analyze the first 255 draft selections for the years 1991 to 2001. As part of our analysis, we
consider four non-position dependent metrics to measure and model player performance at each of
the first 255 draft selections. We perform a nonparametric regression of each performance metric
onto player's selections. A comparison is then made between each fitted line and the Pick Value
Chart. Having considered these comparisons, we propose an alternative Pick Value Chart.

...


1 1000 33 670 65 449 97 301 129 209 161 149 193 135 225 123
2 988 34 661 66 443 98 297 130 206 162 148 194 135 226 122
3 976 35 653 67 438 99 293 131 204 163 147 195 135 227 121
4 964 36 644 68 433 100 289 132 202 164 146 196 135 228 121
5 953 37 636 69 427 101 286 133 200 165 145 197 135 229 120
6 941 38 628 70 422 102 282 134 197 166 145 198 135 230 119
7 930 39 620 71 417 103 279 135 195 167 144 199 135 231 118
8 918 40 612 72 412 104 275 136 193 168 143 200 134 232 117
9 907 41 604 73 407 105 272 137 191 169 143 201 134 233 117
10 896 42 597 74 403 106 269 138 189 170 142 202 134 234 116
11 885 43 589 75 398 107 265 139 187 171 141 203 134 235 115
12 874 44 581 76 393 108 262 140 185 172 141 204 134 236 114
13 863 45 574 77 388 109 259 141 183 173 140 205 133 237 113
14 853 46 566 78 383 110 256 142 181 174 140 206 133 238 113
15 842 47 559 79 378 111 253 143 179 175 139 207 132 239 112
16 832 48 552 80 374 112 250 144 177 176 138 208 132 240 111
17 821 49 545 81 369 113 247 145 175 177 138 209 131 241 111
18 811 50 538 82 364 114 244 146 173 178 138 210 131 242 110
19 801 51 531 83 360 115 241 147 171 179 138 211 131 243 109
20 791 52 525 84 355 116 239 148 169 180 137 212 130 244 109
21 781 53 518 85 351 117 236 149 167 181 137 213 130 245 108
22 771 54 512 86 346 118 234 150 165 182 137 214 130 246 107
23 761 55 506 87 342 119 232 151 164 183 137 215 129 247 107
24 752 56 500 88 337 120 229 152 162 184 137 216 129 248 106
25 742 57 494 89 333 121 227 153 160 185 137 217 128 249 106
26 733 58 489 90 329 122 225 154 158 186 137 218 128 250 105
27 724 59 483 91 325 123 223 155 157 187 137 219 127 251 105
28 714 60 477 92 321 124 220 156 155 188 137 220 127 252 104
29 705 61 471 93 316 125 218 157 154 189 137 221 126 253 104
30 696 62 466 94 312 126 216 158 152 190 136 222 125 254 103
31 687 63 460 95 308 127 213 159 151 191 136 223 125 255 103
32 679 64 454 96 305 128 211 160 150 192 136 224 124

This chart makes no sense to me at all as far as value goes. I'm not sure how they came up with it. The point spreads between players is way too small with no real showing of value plateaus. It certainly would be no use when trying to determine trade values.

 

[Mathletic]

This chart makes no sense to me at all as far as value goes. I'm not sure how they came up with it. The point spreads between players is way too small with no real showing of value plateaus. It certainly would be no use when trying to determine trade values.

I was surprised as well. Maybe the chart is worth nothing or it shows that we put too much stock into drafting ranks. Perhaps you're just better off getting a bunch of picks than few high picks.

 

[Blackjack]

This chart makes no sense to me at all as far as value goes. I'm not sure how they came up with it. The point spreads between players is way too small with no real showing of value plateaus. It certainly would be no use when trying to determine trade values.

I was surprised as well. Maybe the chart is worth nothing or it shows that we put too much stock into drafting ranks. Perhaps you're just better off getting a bunch of picks than few high picks.

This is for the NFL. In the NFL a third rounder probably starts the same year he is drafted. In the NHL a third rounder has maybe a 10% chance of becoming a permanent fixture in the league.

 

[Mathletic]

This is for the NFL. In the NFL a third rounder probably starts the same year he is drafted. In the NHL a third rounder has maybe a 10% chance of becoming a permanent fixture in the league.

yeah, I'm aware it's for the NFL, don't have to say it over and over

point is that most NFL trade charts put a lot of value on high picks no matter what. This chart is much more balanced. When you get a bigger discrepancy between pick values people say, oh well it's the NFL, it's different, and when they're much closer, people say again, oh well it's the NFL, it's different. Ok I get it, I know the NHL and NFL are different, and hockey is such a unique sport that nothing can be measured, ok I get that too.

however, the methodology they use could be used for an NHL chart and perhaps someone could try to apply that method.

 

[Fiddie]

This is for the NFL. In the NFL a third rounder probably starts the same year he is drafted. In the NHL a third rounder has maybe a 10% chance of becoming a permanent fixture in the league.

It's still a bad chart. This chart says if you posses pick 255 and pick 10 you should be able to trade them for the first overall, which is not likely.

 

[Mathletic]

It's still a bad chart. This chart says if you posses pick 255 and pick 10 you should be able to trade them for the first overall, which is not likely.

It doesn't say you should be able to make the trade. It says they're worth the same.

 

[Fiddie]

It doesn't say you should be able to make the trade. It says they're worth the same.

I do not see the difference? If two things are worth the same they are interchangeable all other things being equal. All we are looking at here is the value of an individual pick in reference to the other picks in the draft.

Some trades from this past NFL draft
#10 (896) for #16(832) and #49(545)
#21(781) for #27(724) and #70(422)
#36(644) for #45(574), #108(262) and #141(204)

In each one of these trades according to this chart the team trading for multiple picks can out like bandits.

 

[Beerfish]

This is for the NFL. In the NFL a third rounder probably starts the same year he is drafted. In the NHL a third rounder has maybe a 10% chance of becoming a permanent fixture in the league.

Not even remotely close, not even a little. That chart is way way off for any league. You and the chart are using a value that a player just makes the team and assigns values to that? Not at all useful.

 

[Beerfish]

It doesn't say you should be able to make the trade. It says they're worth the same.

All it is taking into account is if a player makes a team it seems. Would you rather have Sydney Crosby or three 3rd line grinders? You can take 20 5th round picks and they are probably not worth the 1st overall pick.

 

[Mathletic]

I do not see the difference? If two things are worth the same they are interchangeable all other things being equal. All we are looking at here is the value of an individual pick in reference to the other picks in the draft.

Some trades from this past NFL draft
#10 (896) for #16(832) and #49(545)
#21(781) for #27(724) and #70(422)
#36(644) for #45(574), #108(262) and #141(204)

In each one of these trades according to this chart the team trading for multiple picks can out like bandits.

well the way most charts are made is by tracking all past trades, therefore trying to figure out how teams value picks. The way this chart is made is by valuing the quality of players at that pick.


The way you wrote your post it meant that if I have the 255 and 10th pick then I should be able to move to n'1. That isn't true. The team at n'1 very likely values the pick a whole lot more ... here I'm just talking generally, not talking about that huge contract the guy will get and whatnot ...

like you said, this chart, however, says that teams trading down make out like bandits ... that's what the Patriots do every year btw ... most of the time

I don't know if that chart is legit. However, it tells that teams value high picks too much and that you're much better off trading down. NFL teams that use analysts actually trade down a lot, so I wouldn't be surprised if that chart gave a better picture of reality than former charts since it values picks for players taken at that spot unlike other charts that value how people value those picks.

All it is taking into account is if a player makes a team it seems. Would you rather have Sydney Crosby or three 3rd line grinders? You can take 20 5th round picks and they are probably not worth the 1st overall pick.

yeah but the chart averages out various drafts. For every Manning ... maybe not every but some ... there's a Jamarcus Russell

You'll always get that 1 draft with a n'1 pick who's very likely to reach his potential.

That said, it's not like I fully agree with the results or method used rather. However, the point authors make is that people value high picks more than they should and probably undervalue lower picks. At least, that's my understanding and it reflects what I believe as well.

 

[Beerfish]

That said, it's not like I fully agree with the results or method used rather. However, the point authors make is that people value high picks more than they should and probably undervalue lower picks. At least, that's my understanding and it reflects what I believe as well.

I understand that from just a statistical long term chart but not from a value chart for an individual draft. One would have to look at the finer details of how they did things. In any case it is not at all useful for trying to come up with mock trade up/trade downs.

 

[Mathletic]

I understand that from just a statistical long term chart but not from a value chart for an individual draft. One would have to look at the finer details of how they did things. In any case it is not at all useful for trying to come up with mock trade up/trade downs.

yeah but you can use the chart anyway you want. Instead of using averages from past drafts you may use use your own observations. Say you believe this player will play for x amount of years and y level of production then you can come up with your own chart. From that point on you can move up and down the draft while optimizing the value your getting from your picks.

I don't understand that sentence

In any case it is not at all useful for trying to come up with mock trade up/trade downs.