What Do You Think? Draft Pick Point Value Charts

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Hasbro, Apr 21, 2011.

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  1. Hasbro

    Hasbro Can He Skate?! Sponsor

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    They're in common use in the NFL. And the NHL has a comparable sized draft (32 teams 7 rounds).

    I think they're in use as a guideline by some teams. For instance this minor trade in 2007. The Avs traded 3/91 to San Jose for 4/113, 5/143 and 6/170. 136 for 68+34.5+23.4=125.9.
     
  2. TheMistyStranger

    TheMistyStranger ミスト

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    The NFL also drafts older players. NHL draft is more of a crapshoot, even at the top.
     
  3. CB Joe

    CB Joe Registered User

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    Agreed. The value of draft picks from year to year in the NHL fluctuates too much for a chart to be much use.
     
  4. The Saw Is the Law

    The Saw Is the Law Registered User

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    Different sports, different drafts, different pick values
     
  5. Mathletic

    Mathletic Registered User

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    it's not that far off when you look at recent trades. Even in the NFL it's not 1 for 1, it only gives general guidelines.
     
  6. Sensfanman

    Sensfanman Registered User

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    When the Dallas Cowboys invented this, they went on to win Superbowls as a result of swindling teams. Unfortunately, people in the Cowboys left over time and took the chart with them so it's become standard. It wasn't perfect when it was created but it did highlight obvious market opportunities.

    I was thinking of making one for the NHL but the data for this is a nightmare to process.
     
  7. fazon

    fazon Registered User

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    No because the value of the 5th overall pick this year could easily be the value of a 10th overall pick next year.
     
  8. CB Joe

    CB Joe Registered User

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    I tried to make one using the trades since the lockout, but there is just to much fluctuation from year to year for it to be accurate enough.
     
  9. Mathletic

    Mathletic Registered User

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  10. CB Joe

    CB Joe Registered User

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    You can have the one I attempted to do, but I sort of gave up on for now. It's a good start, but its probably not as accurate as it can be. There is a blank template on the second tab if anyone feels like making there own.

    I made it using the newest version of Office, so I don't know how compatible it will be with any older versions, or open office.

    A couple notes. The values in round 1, especially top 10 can very dramatically from draft to draft. When trading a pick that is for the following years draft (e.g. 2012 draft pick at 2011 draft) the value usually drops about 20-30 spots. This is because of the uncertainty of where the team trading the pick will finish, and the team receiving the pick has to add a full year to the development cycle of getting a potential prospect into the NHL.
     
  11. Mathletic

    Mathletic Registered User

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    no big deal but just wondering why you'd have

    10 1050
    11 1000
    12 960
    13 910

    since there's a 40 point difference between the 11th and 12th spot whereas the 12th spot is worth 50 more points than the 13 spot

    I don't have my trade history file with me, so I can't check how much it explains past transactions but the goal is only to give general indications. I don't think it's necessary or even possible to have a unique chart that would satisfy everyone.

    I'm sure it's possible to build some form of chart that could assess the cost of a pick for an individual team. However, it would have to take into account how much you value winning now vs winning in the future. How much you value each player in the draft and so on. From that point on it would be interesting to build some form of algorithms to optimize a team's strategy for the draft. I could see someone using the Kelly criterion knowing the cost of a pick, the expected payoff for that pick and likeliness of the player to reach a performance threshold
     
  12. CB Joe

    CB Joe Registered User

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    Probably just an oversight. I was changing the value of the top 15 alot.

    Edit: If you wanted to make your own here is a link to pretty good website for tracking draft pick trades. http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/
     
  13. Mathletic

    Mathletic Registered User

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    cool, I wasn't aware they kept archives of past drafts. I visited that website only to check the current draft order.
     
  14. Sensfanman

    Sensfanman Registered User

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    That's the best site for the info but it's a nightmare to clean up without some slick coding.
     
  15. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    Even in the NFL, I think most people concede that the draft pick value chart is a little outdated nowadays. The inherent difference between the sports is the sheer number of positions that football has, along with the general nature that guys will be expected to contribute immediately. Ie, if your team needs a strong safety and you know the next five teams already have a young starting strong safety, you can feel safer in dropping back. But if your NHL teams like a defenseman, do you feel safe dropping back 5+ spots or would you fear somebody taking your guy?

    The other assumption is that values assigned to individual picks stay the same year to year. Even in the NFL, there are some years where there is no consensus #1 and teams would love to trade back for less than "equal" value according to the chart.

    I remember in 2008, somebody suggested that the Blues could trade up from #4 to #1 to get Stamkos for just a pair of 3rd rounders since that's what Tampa got in 1999 from trading down from #1 to #4.

    In 2004, the Blue Jackets traded #4 for #8 and #59. In 2006, the Capitals turned down an offer from Boston who wanted #4 for #5 and #37.
     
  16. CB Joe

    CB Joe Registered User

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    This is exactly the problem in the NHL, and the reason I gave up. There are dozens of examples like this though the last 5 years. The variation though the years is just to great to make even a somewhat accurate chart.

    Edit: Here are a few draft pick swaps since the lockout.

    Round 1
    #7 for #9, #40
    #8 for #12, #49, #207
    #12 for #17, #28
    #12 for #16, #41
    #12 for #16, #77, #181
    #15 for #19, #59
    #16 for #20, #53
    #16 for #19, #42
    #16, #77 for #26, #37, #62, #92
    #18 for #24, #70
    #20 for #23, #84
    #21 for #23, #54
    #21 for #26, #27
    #21 for #30, #36
    #22, #113 for #27, #57
    #25 for #30, #77
    #27 for #47, #52
    #28 for #35, #39
    #29 for #32, #75
    #29, #152 for #41, #47
    #30 for #35, #58

    Round 2
    #35 for #38, #69
    #38 for #46, #76
    #45 for #56, #66
    #47 for #49, #109
    #56 for #62, #92
    #59 for #69, #99

    Round 3
    #66 for #79, #109
    #68 for #72, #102
    #71 for #98, #126
    #74 for #87, #96
    #74 for #81, #101
    #74 for #84, #107
    #76 for #99, #111
    #88 for #115, #119

    Round 4
    #94 for #128, #129, #149
    #95 for #117, #119, #202
    #97 for #107, #137
    #98 for #108, #173
    #104 for #114, #144
    #110 for #141, #171
    #112 for #116, #146

    Round 5
    #143 for #155, #169

    Round 6
    #158 for #169, #199
    #161 for #188, #196
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2011
  17. Mathletic

    Mathletic Registered User

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    if anyone cares, there's a new pick chart value that has been published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

    http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1329&context=jqas

    An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance

    Michael Schuckers

    Abstract

    In this paper, we consider the National Football League Pick Value Chart and propose an
    alternative. The current Pick Value Chart was created approximately 20 years ago and has been
    used since to determine the value of draft selections for trading of draft selections. For this paper,
    we analyze the first 255 draft selections for the years 1991 to 2001. As part of our analysis, we
    consider four non-position dependent metrics to measure and model player performance at each of
    the first 255 draft selections. We perform a nonparametric regression of each performance metric
    onto player's selections. A comparison is then made between each fitted line and the Pick Value
    Chart. Having considered these comparisons, we propose an alternative Pick Value Chart.

    ...


    1 1000 33 670 65 449 97 301 129 209 161 149 193 135 225 123
    2 988 34 661 66 443 98 297 130 206 162 148 194 135 226 122
    3 976 35 653 67 438 99 293 131 204 163 147 195 135 227 121
    4 964 36 644 68 433 100 289 132 202 164 146 196 135 228 121
    5 953 37 636 69 427 101 286 133 200 165 145 197 135 229 120
    6 941 38 628 70 422 102 282 134 197 166 145 198 135 230 119
    7 930 39 620 71 417 103 279 135 195 167 144 199 135 231 118
    8 918 40 612 72 412 104 275 136 193 168 143 200 134 232 117
    9 907 41 604 73 407 105 272 137 191 169 143 201 134 233 117
    10 896 42 597 74 403 106 269 138 189 170 142 202 134 234 116
    11 885 43 589 75 398 107 265 139 187 171 141 203 134 235 115
    12 874 44 581 76 393 108 262 140 185 172 141 204 134 236 114
    13 863 45 574 77 388 109 259 141 183 173 140 205 133 237 113
    14 853 46 566 78 383 110 256 142 181 174 140 206 133 238 113
    15 842 47 559 79 378 111 253 143 179 175 139 207 132 239 112
    16 832 48 552 80 374 112 250 144 177 176 138 208 132 240 111
    17 821 49 545 81 369 113 247 145 175 177 138 209 131 241 111
    18 811 50 538 82 364 114 244 146 173 178 138 210 131 242 110
    19 801 51 531 83 360 115 241 147 171 179 138 211 131 243 109
    20 791 52 525 84 355 116 239 148 169 180 137 212 130 244 109
    21 781 53 518 85 351 117 236 149 167 181 137 213 130 245 108
    22 771 54 512 86 346 118 234 150 165 182 137 214 130 246 107
    23 761 55 506 87 342 119 232 151 164 183 137 215 129 247 107
    24 752 56 500 88 337 120 229 152 162 184 137 216 129 248 106
    25 742 57 494 89 333 121 227 153 160 185 137 217 128 249 106
    26 733 58 489 90 329 122 225 154 158 186 137 218 128 250 105
    27 724 59 483 91 325 123 223 155 157 187 137 219 127 251 105
    28 714 60 477 92 321 124 220 156 155 188 137 220 127 252 104
    29 705 61 471 93 316 125 218 157 154 189 137 221 126 253 104
    30 696 62 466 94 312 126 216 158 152 190 136 222 125 254 103
    31 687 63 460 95 308 127 213 159 151 191 136 223 125 255 103
    32 679 64 454 96 305 128 211 160 150 192 136 224 124
     
  18. Beerfish

    Beerfish Registered User

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    I created an NHL draft value chart last year based on the NFL chart and previous draft pick for draft pick trades. It is included in my NHL mock draft creator spreadsheet. Not sure if the google docs link to it is working but if anyone wants to see if fire me off a pm and I'll email it to you. I could try and post it in a thread, I'm not sure what the formatting would end up looking like though. I'll try and repost the link to it this evening when I get home.

    Link to the google docs mock draft creator with draft value chart:

    Mock draft creator
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2011
  19. Fiddie

    Fiddie Registered User

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    Mine if anyone wants it. Like Fazon said draft picks differ in value every year so this is just a GENERAL guideline.


     
  20. PensBeerGeek

    PensBeerGeek Registered User

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    I've always thought that the NHL 1st overall was more valuable than the 1st overall in the NFL based upon the Entry Level Contract system in the NHL.

    If Cam Newton falls under the old CBA, then he could easily come into the NFL as one of the 7 or 8 highest paid players in the NFL without playing a single game.

    The 1st overall in the NHL, on the other hand, makes less than a million dollars in base salary, and will come in at a cap hit of less than $4 million. There's a value in that cost-certainty.

    In all honesty, I've always thought that the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft was as much an albatross as a blessing (and I've heard personnel gripings say the same thing); would anyone say the same thing about having the first pick in the NHL?
     
  21. Leafs87

    Leafs87 Mr. Steal Your Job

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    Its really different. In the NFL there is a lot more positions. Say you pick 10th overall, you could still get the top rated QB if no other team before you selects a QB.
     
  22. Blackjack

    Blackjack Registered User

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    The NFL and NHL drafts are completely different beasts, and I think a value chart makes a little more sense in football than it would for hockey:

    There are 32 NFL teams that have 53 players apiece. That's almost 1700 players. The NFLPA (which technically doesn't exist anymore) claims that the average NFL career is only 3.3 years. No matter how you slice the numbers, you're looking at hundreds of new players coming in every year via the draft. Your 1st and 2nd round picks had better be stars, and your 3rd, 4th, & 5th round picks need to be solid contributors (maybe equivalent to a 55 point 2nd line forward in the NHL).

    In the NHL it's much harder to project talent, and that makes it more important to draft the BPA, and it means that a top five pick in 2003 is very different than a top five pick in 1999.
     
  23. Beerfish

    Beerfish Registered User

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    Any of these charts are just going to be guidelines, I think those of us that have created ones have used the NFL one as a base but then adjusted. I took the NFL values and then tried to manipulate them to match real NHL trades over the past 5-10 years. Obviously the more data the better. Much like the NFL draft things change from year to year with plateaus of talent at different parts of the draft.

    What these charts do however is allow the average fan to at least be in the ball park with some trade ideas rather than being way out in left field. It also allows the average fan to even add players into the equation (you need to decided what draft value a player would be.)

    Someone with a big back ground in stats could probably come up with the most accurate version based on past results.
     
  24. nags

    nags Registered User

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    The fact that this methodology even works for football shows why hockey is just so much more interesting. Hockey seems to be more like "real life" with surrounding conditions always changing while football seems more like a computer simulation.
     
  25. Blackjack

    Blackjack Registered User

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    For me it has everything to do with the longevity of the players. If you look at an NFL roster one year, it will be unrecognizable 3 years later. In the NHL you get attached to the stars, support players, and role players that are on the team year after year, and it's fun to see them develop, improve, regress a little, and then improve again.
     

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