The U.S. is currently experiencing 3,000 deaths and 226,000 new cases daily. The Thanksgiving travelers and family gatherings numbers haven't actually been a big part of the current surge as you need to deal with a 14 day time span before those infected during that week we will see the numbers surge in the next few days and many of those who enjoyed big gatherings on Thanksgiving will be in the hospital or worse, their families will be having small gatherings for their funerals right around Christmas.
Speaking of Christmas, I expect the "I have a right to my freedom" idiots (Yes, because being asked to wear a cloth mask over your nose and mouth when in the presence of others in order to extend some protection to them from you and you from them is such a freedom deprivation!) to be in even larger numbers for Christmas gatherings, many involving several days and overnights all in the same dwelling. Then a week later we'll have the many New Year's parties. They are currently predicting 300,000 and up to 400,000 new cases daily and up to 3,5000-4,000+ daily deaths by February. I sure do hope this doesn't come to fruition.
Therefore, I would speculate the January 1 start date is really farfetched and Bettman has already admitted that they will have to follow the Govt. guidelines as they are changed and re-esatblished. If the February numbers are to become a reality, and the numbers predictions by the experts have been spot on thus far, Playing hockey in major U.S. cities is going to be dangerous to say the least. The NFL and college football have been heavily effected by the Virus and they have much greater access to replacements than hockey, but games have still been postponed and some cancelled altogether.
This is really playing with fire in the U.S. and there will be a new administration in January who will have a much more serious attitude in treating the pandemic.
Vaccines will not have any influence for some time and the earliest optimistic prediction as to when they will have had the opportunity to offer it to all Americans is June. Then again 37% of those polled across the country say they will not opt to take the vaccine. I don't know about Canada, but the U.S. has a huge number of anti vaxxers. Combine them with the anti mask and social distancing numbers and the virus will still be spreading itself around for quite some time even when others are getting the vaccine.
If there is hockey it, will be in empty rinks and the restaurants they'll need may very well be closed. Thus, pick up or delivery of all meals will have the teams dining under ridiculous restrictions as will any movement the players are used to doing when on the road. New York City has just announced all restaurants will be closed to in house dining until further notice. As things get worse in the predicted long dark winter, many more cities and states will establish the same rules and enact many more as the tighten the grip on movement outside by anyone other than essential workers.
I can't see hockey being considered more important than the health of the U.S. in spite of the number of jerks they are trying to protect that don't want the help.
** This isn't a political opinion. It's simply reporting the situation on the ground here and and how it may influence our beloved game.