I agree that this is the probability with pay cuts. Players that stay don't often experience declining salaries. That said, a major injury does not apply to all cases. Leivo's limited track record and the flat cap the same.
Effectively, you're saying the flat cap, major injury and limited track record should not affect Leivo's re-signing rate here, but may affect Leivo's signing rate elsewhere?
Or, are you saying that those three caveats should not affect him regardless of where he goes? That he has earned a raise despite all factors to the contrary?
This is my last post because this is going circular and I feel that I'm repeating the points.
It's not a matter simply of him suffering a major injury. It's contingent upon how he is recuperating from that injury.
Canucks don't need another winger of 4th-line/spare calibre, especially one that doesn't kill penalties. So if that's what they think Leivo is likely to be due to the injury, they shouldn't sign him at all-- not even with a pay cut.
On the other hand, if they are optimistic about his recuperation and his future status, then why would they risk losing him by offering him a pay cut, especially something in the 30% or more category? Given the market circumstances I would think there's a good chance that he might accept a one-year deal at the same money as last season. If he comes back as the same player that's a very good bargain. Lowballing in that scenario doesn't make sense as it would probably just chase him out the door. Remember that it's his kneecap; he'll know best how it's progressing and the better it feels the more confident he'll be about his contractual demands and his future as a player.