What can you expect from each round of the draft?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Winnipeg Jets, May 25, 2011.

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  1. Winnipeg Jets

    Winnipeg Jets Lucky #7

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    I'm trying to learn more about the draft and I'd like to know what kind of players would you expect from each round of the draft.

    For example, from what I've seen from years past is the top 5ish players are expected to turn out to be exceptional NHL players down the road. The rest would be solid NHL players filling the 1st/2nd lines.

    Now I know draft position has an extremely small factor in how successful a prospect might develop but for the most part the earlier picks are considered safer bets. We've seen countless times where lower draft picks have gone above and beyond their higher drafted counterparts.

    What I'd like to know is what type of players should you expect from the later rounds of the draft? Perhaps role players/bottom 6 types? I know there are sometimes diamonds in the rough as we've seen countless times from different organizations in Weber, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc,.

    What about later rounds (i.e: Round 4, 5, 6, 7). Where are goalies usually taken?

    Thanks.

    Edit: Also does anyone know of any good literature regarding scouting/the NHL entry draft, etc? I've found this one (The Art of Scouting) and I think I might buy it.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2011
  2. Kevin Forbes

    Kevin Forbes Registered User

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    Check out Future Greats and Heartbreaks by Gare Joyce.
    I preferred it to the Art of Scouting.
     
  3. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960

    I've brought this article up before. From '95 to '04 the chances of a 2nd rounder playing 100+ NHL games was a little below 30%. Those percentages obviously go down as you progress into the later rounds.

    If you get two contributing NHLers out of a draft you are doing very well. So I guess if you get a roster player out of the first round and one more out of rounds 2-7 you're having success. The hope is that one of those guys is a difference maker.
     
  4. Nalens Oga

    Nalens Oga Registered User

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    I dunno if that book is so good. It'd probably be a better investment to read hockey draft magazines. The most obvious one is The Hockey News ($6 CDN), it's available to view online from thn.com. It isn't the best one for sure but it's short and cheaper than the other ones (the next cheapest one is $20 but it's much more in depth, Future Considerations and HockeyProspects 2011 Draft Guides). There's a sticked thread at the top of the prospects forum page about all the guides, go through one or two of them to learn about this draft. But it's a guess although all of these give decent scouting reports on each player around 90-120 or whatever depending on the guide.

    If you wanna get a feel for past drafts then just look through hockeydb or wikipedia but each one is different and some of the NHL's patterns now are different from previously. This is the link which gives player draft position and it lists NHL stats next to each player, you can select which draft year.:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html

    This is the link for the 2004 draft:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2004e.html
    The players in this draft have had a decent length of time to crack the NHL. So you can see how the players in the higher rounds usually get more opportunity to play even if they aren't currently NHLers. The amount of games played between 6th-9th round players is pretty even, also remember that the NHL no longer has 9 rounds, it has 7 in the draft. As far as forwards go, there were a lot of busts in that draft after Ovechkin/Malkin but there are guys in later rounds like Callahan who've emerged and there's also a lot of good dmen like Edler and Streit in later rounds. Another pattern is that NHL teams especially recently avoid taking European players in higher rounds even if they have a good scout rating and good reviews. There's always a bit of a risk so players like Kabanov and Kitsyn (recent examples) slip despite being ranked as potential first rounders. So a lot of players taken in later rounds who're regular NHLers now are Europeans but obviously a lot of first rounders become busts.
     
  5. Winnipeg Jets

    Winnipeg Jets Lucky #7

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    Great article, it's funny reading some of their rankings now :laugh:
     

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