What can the Sabres realistically do between now and October to avoid a bottom 8 finish?

[SackTastic]

Sabres are not over the cap now. Bogosian is not on LTIR, and is counting against the cap today.

Looking forward: Even with RFAs Ullmark, ERod, McCabe, Elie signed the Sabres will exceed the cap by ~$2-2.5M, which is allowed (up to 10% of cap) in the offseason.
But note also the Sabres will also need to drop 2 contracts off their current roster by season's start.
If they drop contracts via waivers, only the portion of 1-way contracts >$1.025M assigned to the AHL count towards the cap which means the Sabres can:
Waive Wilson for assignment and only count $25k against the cap.
Waive Hunwick and only count $1.225M against the cap.
Waive Nelson with no cap hit.

They will also have a second window for buyouts in about 2 weeks in August, sometime between the 6th and 10th or so (although I don't believe it makes sense to buy anyone out now, the time for that was before 7/1/19, IMO).

And the scenarios above don't assume any trades (Risto rumors, etc.) because I assume they either won't happen, or (conservatively) would be net-neutral for salary.

So, strictly speaking, the Sabres aren't over the cap now, won't be with the RFAs signed, and have several straightforward means to be cap compliant come season's start, and Bogo's health doesn't need to be factored in (although I assume the Sabres will put both Bogo and Pilut on LTIR for roster reasons, not cap reasons).

But I truly agree they could have used their cap space better since Botts has been GM. Let's hope he gets religion in that regard.

To me, the way things are lining up, Botts feels confident that the Rochester kids will start forcing their way into the NHL lineup this season, which gives him more flexibility to dump some pending UFAs at the deadline for picks, move the kids up the NHL on ELCs, and use those picks to restock Rochester.

This is the same formula that's generally worked in the salary cap era, we just haven't seen it here because the team has not executed it, and tried to buy their way out of the hole.

For me, I don't consider a team to be in 'cap jail' until they reach a point where they start limiting their flexibility more than 2 seasons out. It's why I cringe every time someone suggests a buyout; the duration of the penalty is usually punitive. (They're still paying for Hodgson, although I'm glad he's finally healthy and doing well.) They should be fine to give Reinhart a fair deal after this year, and still have enough room to give Dahlin a big 8yr deal after next year, and that's assuming they don't move Risto.

Only real albatross right now is Okposo, but my fingers are crossed he can find it again.

 

[jc17]

I am not sure if this dude is one of you guys, but aside from the coaching change, this is the biggest reason I have hope:

If we take it literally though, adding 20 goals still puts the team at a 47% GF. Sp while I think those three are huge, more is necessary

 

[Djp]

I don't even think he'll be healthy for camp, right? making any presumptions moot?

Don't know what you mean by that. Not arguing, educating:

Sabres are not over the cap now. Bogosian is not on LTIR, and is counting against the cap today.

Looking forward: Even with RFAs Ullmark, ERod, McCabe, Elie signed the Sabres will exceed the cap by ~$2-2.5M, which is allowed (up to 10% of cap) in the offseason.
But note also the Sabres will also need to drop 2 contracts off their current roster by season's start.
If they drop contracts via waivers, only the portion of 1-way contracts >$1.025M assigned to the AHL count towards the cap which means the Sabres can:
Waive Wilson for assignment and only count $25k against the cap.
Waive Hunwick and only count $1.225M against the cap.
Waive Nelson with no cap hit.

They will also have a second window for buyouts in about 2 weeks in August, sometime between the 6th and 10th or so (although I don't believe it makes sense to buy anyone out now, the time for that was before 7/1/19, IMO).

And the scenarios above don't assume any trades (Risto rumors, etc.) because I assume they either won't happen, or (conservatively) would be net-neutral for salary.

So, strictly speaking, the Sabres aren't over the cap now, won't be with the RFAs signed, and have several straightforward means to be cap compliant come season's start, and Bogo's health doesn't need to be factored in (although I assume the Sabres will put both Bogo and Pilut on LTIR for roster reasons, not cap reasons).

But I truly agree they could have used their cap space better since Botts has been GM. Let's hope he gets religion in that regard.

They are tight against the cap right now and possibly worse after arbitration. Yes zbogo can go on LTIR to start the season. Thry don’t have room to make a UFA signing or a trade where slot more money is coming back.

I see at least $7M for the 3 to sign. Thst puts them over the cap.

It does open a buy out window for them to use buy out on Sobotka saving $2M in cap space this year. Hunwick can get buried saving another $1M

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If we take it literally though, adding 20 goals still puts the team at a 47% GF. Sp while I think those three are huge, more is necessary

That'd be good enough for a top 25 finish right? MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

 

[SackTastic]

They are tight against the cap right now and possibly worse after arbitration. Yes zbogo can go on LTIR to start the season. Thry don’t have room to make a UFA signing or a trade where slot more money is coming back.

I see at least $7M for the 3 to sign. Thst puts them over the cap.

It does open a buy out window for them to use buy out on Sobotka saving $2M in cap space this year. Hunwick can get buried saving another $1M

If all 3 pending RFA got 2x salary increases, that's $6M, leaving them $900k over the cap. That would not be a big deal to cover, and it's also very unlikely all 3 will get raises that large.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

I am not sure why people push the fake Mantha rumor. It was never a real rumor. TSN commentator said a player like Mantha and then Buffalo fans started pushing it. People really should listen to the sound bite. He said a player LIKE Mantha.

Mantha, Ehlers, Cirelli are all pipe dreams. I don't get how anyone could argue in favor of Risto over any of them.

 

[brian_griffin]

Looking forward: Even with RFAs Ullmark, ERod, McCabe, Elie signed the Sabres will exceed the cap by ~$2-2.5M, which is allowed (up to 10% of cap) in the offseason.

So, the remaining rfa’s are all coming in under 5 mil total? I disagree.

Also, per your solutions: yes, I expect bogo on ltir eventually, which does relieve this. No, I don’t expect any buyouts, and yes, a trade would impact this, although, specifically in a risto trade, I see us taking more salary back, than giving away, in basically any scenario.

I definitely challenge the notion of cap space not being an issue in the short term, given that I still expect team improvement.

Follow the math:
Current Sabres cap = 76.4
NHL Cap = 81.5
Difference = 5.1
b_g cap excess prediction = 2 - 2.5
Total = 7.1 - 7.6M
Divide 7.1 - 7.6 by RFAs ERod 2.1, McCabe 2.6, Ullmark 2.5 = 7.2M
Elie isn't worth more than his QO, regardless he will be $<1.025M and waived to Roch and will not count against the cap.

And again, teams can be 10% over the cap in the offseason. No moves / actions are needed "now".

If all 3 pending RFA got 2x salary increases, that's $6M, leaving them $900k over the cap. That would not be a big deal to cover, and it's also very unlikely all 3 will get raises that large.

Exactly.

 

[Gabrielor]

Follow the math:
Current Sabres cap = 76.4
NHL Cap = 81.5
Difference = 5.1
b_g cap excess prediction = 2 - 2.5
Total = 7.1 - 7.6M
Divide 7.1 - 7.6 by RFAs ERod 2.1, McCabe 2.6, Ullmark 2.5 = 7.2M
Elie isn't worth more than his QO, regardless he will be $<1.025M and waived to Roch and will not count against the cap.

And again, teams can be 10% over the cap in the offseason. No moves / actions are needed "now".

Exactly.

Yeah, I got that. I get the summer inflator. I did do the math.

Edit: nvm, you’re just cherry picking my post; not interested.

 

[Jim Bob]

Projecting the 2019-20 NHL standings: How does each roster...

Right now, this projection has the Sabres finishing t-5th worst with the Ducks.

 

[old kummelweck]

After re-watching 20 or so game recaps and condensed games from Nov-Jan, there were a few things I noticed.

1. The Sabres in the first half were able to put up points consistently and appeared to be a competitive, playoff team.
2. Right around the all star break, the goal-tending, lack of effective defensive zone system and/or lack of right personnel, and the lack of depth scoring appeared to hit them at the same time and they dropped right when the teams built for the second half started coming on.

I would say in order to address their second-half struggles, Botterill needed to address those issues from the second half. He's done a number of those things to various degrees.

1. He hired new coaches: head coach, assistants, video, goal tending. This could help in a lot of those areas I mentioned after the all star break.
2. He added depth scoring in Johansson and Vesey.
3. He transformed the defense from a personnel perspective.

I'm not sure it's quite enough, but if they can turn 30%-50% of the second half losses into wins, they make the playoffs. Would better personnel like a 2nd line C and an established goalie improve that situation? Yes. But I would question whether doing anything before October is necessary.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Forfeit the 2019/20 season

Ok I'm going back into hibernation.

 

[Howie Hodge]

Forfeit the 2019/20 season

Ok I'm going back into hibernation.

Said the Tartigrade....

 

[Montag DP]

Projecting the 2019-20 NHL standings: How does each roster...

Right now, this projection has the Sabres finishing t-5th worst with the Ducks.

Who cares? Projections like that are almost completely worthless.

 

[threeVo]

They really just need the goalie tandem to put together an outlier season and they will be in the playoffs. With a slightly better defense and no Sobotka, if the goalies play better than career averages (or in Huttons case slightly above) that will propel them into a WC spot. It happens every season where a goalie just has it going for him and goes back to normal the next year.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Who cares? Projections like that are almost completely worthless.

I agree although this one is at least based off data instead of random picks by someone.

They used the lineup projections tool which goes by wins above replacement for each player. It's a fun tool to play around with but I wouldn't expect it to give an accurate prediction.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Get a mid 20's middle six centermen. Someone like RNH, without selling the whole god damn farm, which doesn't seem possible, but that's what it looks like to me.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Also a f***ing coach who is realistic enough to realize, playing a scrub like Sobotka isn't doing this team any favors when other players with youth and speed can be in the line up. Krueger needs to be the complete antithesis of what Housley was. Have some spine too. Structure is fine, but playing dead weight veterans who give this team no legs, is a joke. Sorry Vladdy, sorry Kyle, you're at your end.

 

[lauraP]

Also a ****ing coach who is realistic enough to realize, playing a scrub like Sobotka isn't doing this team any favors when other players with youth and speed can be in the line up. Krueger needs to be the complete antithesis of what Housley was. Have some spine too. Structure is fine, but playing dead weight veterans who give this team no legs, is a joke. Sorry Vladdy, sorry Kyle, you're at your end.

you think our coach is gonna just stop playing okposo? doesn't work like that when you pay someone 6million, okposo will have every chance to make the top six in camp/pre season(Pominvile last year) and if that fails he'll play on the 4th line w larson/girgs

 

[joshjull]

I’m still going with stuff and things

 

[McPhatty00]

How about this Sam Reinhart guy?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Bottom 9 center. Boyle, Sheahan, and Lindberg are the only three remaining UFAs that could even sniff that job.

Still think Botterill should make a run at Tierney or Bonino.

 

[darcyRegier]

After re-watching 20 or so game recaps and condensed games from Nov-Jan, there were a few things I noticed.

1. The Sabres in the first half were able to put up points consistently and appeared to be a competitive, playoff team.
2. Right around the all star break, the goal-tending, lack of effective defensive zone system and/or lack of right personnel, and the lack of depth scoring appeared to hit them at the same time and they dropped right when the teams built for the second half started coming on.

I would say in order to address their second-half struggles, Botterill needed to address those issues from the second half. He's done a number of those things to various degrees.

1. He hired new coaches: head coach, assistants, video, goal tending. This could help in a lot of those areas I mentioned after the all star break.
2. He added depth scoring in Johansson and Vesey.
3. He transformed the defense from a personnel perspective.

I'm not sure it's quite enough, but if they can turn 30%-50% of the second half losses into wins, they make the playoffs. Would better personnel like a 2nd line C and an established goalie improve that situation? Yes. But I would question whether doing anything before October is necessary.

Adding onto your post, I thought that the team was playing with a high level of confidence in the first half as well. They played energized, fast and crisp. Forwards chased down pucks effectively, and were pressuring the hell out of defenders (especially the Larson line).

On top of that, it seemed like the team was never out of a game. I recall several late 3rd period comebacks, and I could tell that the team was playing very confidently.

If they can get that swagger back, I think we should be contending for a wildcard spot all the way until the end. Krueger and depth additions in combo with the growth of our youngsters should be a big boost.

 

[old kummelweck]

Adding onto your post, I thought that the team was playing with a high level of confidence in the first half as well. They played energized, fast and crisp. Forwards chased down pucks effectively, and were pressuring the hell out of defenders (especially the Larson line).

On top of that, it seemed like the team was never out of a game. I recall several late 3rd period comebacks, and I could tell that the team was playing very confidently.

If they can get that swagger back, I think we should be contending for a wildcard spot all the way until the end. Krueger and depth additions in combo with the growth of our youngsters should be a big boost.

I think they caught a lot of teams who maybe didn't prepare for them because they took them lightly. They never really seemed to have any type of structure or style other than relying purely on their high-end talent. Once teams starting shutting those (few) big guns down, or attacking the weakness in the defense and goal tending, the copy-cat league would just run the same playbook that other team were using to beat them.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think they caught a lot of teams who maybe didn't prepare for them because they took them lightly. They never really seemed to have any type of structure or style other than relying purely on their high-end talent. Once teams starting shutting those (few) big guns down, or attacking the weakness in the defense and goal tending, the copy-cat league would just run the same playbook that other team were using to beat them.

Agreed. The game that sticks out in my head is the 1-0 loss to Dallas. The Stars roughed up Eichel and the top forwards, and the Sabres could never counter. The Sabres got shutout in the opener against Boston, but scored in every game from there to the ASB. They were shutout 6 times after the ASB, including twice against the Stars. The Sabres beat the Blues (ROR's return) and the Caps (who they always play tough) but didn't win against any physical hockey team after the ASB. Depending on what your definition of physical is, they won about 10 games against physical teams prior to the ASB.

Sabres need to use the old Red Wings model and just play through the physical play. Worked for Chicago and Pittsburgh over the past decade, winning 6 Cups.

 

[Bisons6]

Agree with Chainshot... No matter how improved we are, cannot make playoffs with sub-standard goalies, and ours have been atrocious for years. Also, I would hire a new GM and coach and get new owners, firing Terry & Kim. That's it. Cinch we're in after that.