1st ballot isn't really a thing in hockey, but he could get in his first year of availability depending on his competition.
Yeah, exactly.
I'd say his biggest barrier to being a first ballot would've been a better goalie retiring in the same year, but that doesn't seem like it poses much risk. Can Lundqvist stretch out one more year and is that all Fleury has left? Or maybe Fleury plays 4 more seasons as a backup until he's 40 and that's all Carey Price has left too. Rask??
The 2003 draft class is probably loaded with future HHOFers, so maybe 5-6 of his top peers (Bergeron, Staal, Getzlaf, Suter, Weber, Burns) all retire at the same time and that's what blocks his first go around. 2004 has Ovechkin and Malkin easily ahead of him, and then 2005 has Crosby, Price and Kopitar. Guessing Fleury likely retires before Toews, Backstrom, Giroux, Marchand, Kessel from 2006, a couple of which are behind him anyways and may not actually make the Hall. 2002 has Duncan Keith as a future HHOFer, 2001 probably no one.
Hard to say, but unless four of Keith, Bergeron, Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Price, Kopitar, and/or Toews retire in the same season, I think the committee makes the case for him above the rest. Definitely not saying that's how I would vote, just how I think they will see it (with Backstrom being the most egregious snub for Fleury IMO.)