What are the chances Toronto's 2020 1st round pick is in the top 10 if they lose to Columbus?

67Leafs67

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Nov 8, 2014
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It's not irrational. The design of the playoffs make it rational.

Also losing to Boston in 7 doesn't mean TOR was the 3rd best team in the playoffs.

Winning a series will do wonders for:
1) young players
2) Andersen
3) Keefe / Dubas / Shanny (they keep their jobs)
Or the design of the playoffs is irrational...? Like, I'm sorry, but if you finish in the top half of your Conference, you should be playing a team that, over 82 games, finished with a worse record than you.

I never said Toronto was the third best team in the playoffs last year either? All I'm suggesting is that, losing to a really good team in the playoffs doesn't make you a bad team, or a team that is "not getting anywhere" or akin to teams "drafting near the top every year".

Of course winning a play-in series is beneficial, but will it do wonders? I highly doubt it. Our players already know what it takes to win three playoff games out of five. Plenty of them have gone on much further than that in past playoffs with other teams as well. All of the narratives about "knowing what it takes to win" and "clutch" players are overblown factors that do play a role, but a much smaller one than most give them credit for, I would imagine. Even then...this series against Columbus isn't even a real playoff series. It is basically akin to winning the games down the stretch necessary to beat out other teams for a playoff spot - which Toronto has done for the past three seasons. This isn't like some new hurdle and learning experience for the team.

Also, Keefe, Dubas, & Shanahan are going to keep their jobs regardless of whether or not we succeed in the playoffs this year. Trust me, if buffoons like Burke or Ferguson Jr. could hold onto GM positions for 3 or more seasons, Dubas has a lot more leash left, and Keefe hasn't even had a full season behind the bench yet.
 

ottomaddox

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Or the design of the playoffs is irrational...? Like, I'm sorry, but if you finish in the top half of your Conference, you should be playing a team that, over 82 games, finished with a worse record than you.

I never said Toronto was the third best team in the playoffs last year either? All I'm suggesting is that, losing to a really good team in the playoffs doesn't make you a bad team, or a team that is "not getting anywhere" or akin to teams "drafting near the top every year".

Of course winning a play-in series is beneficial, but will it do wonders? I highly doubt it. Our players already know what it takes to win three playoff games out of five. Plenty of them have gone on much further than that in past playoffs with other teams as well. All of the narratives about "knowing what it takes to win" and "clutch" players are overblown factors that do play a role, but a much smaller one than most give them credit for, I would imagine. Even then...this series against Columbus isn't even a real playoff series. It is basically akin to winning the games down the stretch necessary to beat out other teams for a playoff spot - which Toronto has done for the past three seasons. This isn't like some new hurdle and learning experience for the team.

Also, Keefe, Dubas, & Shanahan are going to keep their jobs regardless of whether or not we succeed in the playoffs this year. Trust me, if buffoons like Burke or Ferguson Jr. could hold onto GM positions for 3 or more seasons, Dubas has a lot more leash left, and Keefe hasn't even had a full season behind the bench yet.

I cannot figure out which side of the fence you're on. It will be beneficial, but it won't do wonders?
 

67Leafs67

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I cannot figure out which side of the fence you're on. It will be beneficial, but it won't do wonders?
It really shouldn't be that hard to differentiate between the terms 'beneficial' and 'working wonders'. But if you need me to delineate them for you - just because something is beneficial doesn't mean the benefit is significant, or long lasting (ie. some gained experience that will continue to benefit our team's players in the future). I would assume that 'working wonders' implies some kind of significant, long lasting benefit, that will totally change the future outlook of the team.
 

Stephen

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Yeah trading up is pretty much always a bad idea, unless it is very, very early in the draft for lesser commodities. Most of the time, more picks is always better, especially in the late rounds. Teams are always leaving tons of good, but overlooked, prospects on the table for the Leafs to scoop up.

That's not really true at all. Trading up and down are both valid maneuvers. But here are some examples where trading down for more picks didn't really do any good:

-Leafs traded down to draft Dermott, Dzierkals and Bracco and missed a chance to take Travis Konecny. Bracco and Dzierkals are useless and Dermott is just okay. Konecny looks like he's going to be a core Flyers piece.

-Leafs traded the 5th overall pick in 1992 (Darius Kasparaitis) for the 8th and 32nd pick. They took Brandon Convery and then packaged the 32nd pick to Washington for a first round pick (Grant Marshall) and some other random picks. All things considered, they should have just used the pick on Kasparaitis.
 

LeafsNation75

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-Leafs traded down to draft Dermott, Dzierkals and Bracco and missed a chance to take Travis Konecny. Bracco and Dzierkals are useless and Dermott is just okay. Konecny looks like he's going to be a core Flyers piece.
Even if the Leafs had never traded down they weren't going to select Konecny.

Besides selecting Marner 4th overall they also had the 24th pick which was acquired from Nashville for Cody Franson, which was traded to Philadelphia.

Because of that they had the 29th pick which they traded to Columbus.

It should also be mentioned that Brendan Shanahan put Dubas in charge of getting extra picks that year. It was also Mark Hunter who was running the draft and had the final say on who they selected. So he obviously wanted Dermott and was still able to select him in the 2nd round, along with getting those extra picks.

Today it's easy to say how Bracco and Dzierkals are useless, however in the end just because Konecny was a great pick for the Flyers wouldn't have mattered since Hunter was never going to draft him.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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That's not really true at all. Trading up and down are both valid maneuvers. But here are some examples where trading down for more picks didn't really do any good:

-Leafs traded down to draft Dermott, Dzierkals and Bracco and missed a chance to take Travis Konecny. Bracco and Dzierkals are useless and Dermott is just okay. Konecny looks like he's going to be a core Flyers piece.

-Leafs traded the 5th overall pick in 1992 (Darius Kasparaitis) for the 8th and 32nd pick. They took Brandon Convery and then packaged the 32nd pick to Washington for a first round pick (Grant Marshall) and some other random picks. All things considered, they should have just used the pick on Kasparaitis.

There is two parts to this though. Trade value and the selection. Value-wise, I would say the Dermott deal worked out fine. Having a chance in one of the deepest drafts in a long time to get some extra talents, especially in a pool which severely lacked talent, was important. We needed quantity probably more than we needed quality.

There is also the "what-if" factor. What if Konecny busted? What if we chose Aho instead of Dermott, or Cirelli instead of Dzierkals, etc. Suddenly it is not looking like a bad move.

The main thing to consider when you are making a decision about trading up or down is your board. Is someone falling that you had ranked very highly (i.e. Konecny). Are there a ton of prospects you like and figure that as long as you get one of them, you would rather get extra draft capital (i.e. Sandin and SDA), then trade down. Is there one clear choice or a lack of enticing trade options, then stay pat. You need to have a strong board and strong drafting philosophy.

Other than that, it mostly just comes down to trade value. Most people use pick charts and that is it. I think that is foolish, but it works in a pinch when you are just casually evaluating. Pro teams hopefully use a much more sophisticated system.
 
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Stigma

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It's none of my business what TOR fans cheer for, but I've never seen so much excitement over the slim possibility of landing the first overall. It's fun to geek out about these best case losing scenarios, but are we losing perspective here? Why cheer for losing? We can draft until our hearts content by moving Marner, Rielly, Matthews, Nylander, Muzzin, etc. but what is the point? Is this a product of HFBOARDS culture or are people starting to see a cynical side to this current team + organization?
I think people are just killing time. Having some fun.

I also think that, deep down, everybody knows that, if the Leaf got #1 overall, they're not doing anything with it. It's fun to talk scenarios, but I will guarantee nothing will happen. They will keep the pick.
 
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ottomaddox

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It really shouldn't be that hard to differentiate between the terms 'beneficial' and 'working wonders'. But if you need me to delineate them for you - just because something is beneficial doesn't mean the benefit is significant, or long lasting (ie. some gained experience that will continue to benefit our team's players in the future). I would assume that 'working wonders' implies some kind of significant, long lasting benefit, that will totally change the future outlook of the team.

Winning in the playoffs is beneficial and significant.
 

deletethis

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The Leafs getting cute with 1st round picks has never seemed to work. I'm at a loss for an example where moving up or down turned out well for my Leafs.
 

LeafsNation75

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The Leafs getting cute with 1st round picks has never seemed to work. I'm at a loss for an example where moving up or down turned out well for my Leafs.
Originally in the 2018 draft the Leafs 1st round pick was 25th overall and Dubas traded down to the 29th overall, however he was still able to draft Rasmus Sandin.
 
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67Leafs67

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It's not called playoffs but when you're in a lose and go home series it's the playoffs.
Except that you could say the exact same thing about the regular season. Lose or go home. Beat Columbus in the race for the playoffs, or go home before the four round, Stanley Cup playoff tournament begins. At that point it is just semantics. This play in round is essentially just abbreviating the final dozen or so regular season games for the teams that actually had a shot at making the playoff cutoff.
 

ACC1224

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Except that you could say the exact same thing about the regular season. Lose or go home. Beat Columbus in the race for the playoffs, or go home before the four round, Stanley Cup playoff tournament begins. At that point it is just semantics. This play in round is essentially just abbreviating the final dozen or so regular season games for the teams that actually had a shot at making the playoff cutoff.
All teams participate in the regular season. Not all teams are participating in this Play In round.
 

67Leafs67

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It would still be a series win since they need to win three games against Columbus to make the playoffs. So it's something their core players minus Tavares, Muzzin, Andersen, and Clifford have not done at the NHL level.
Except they have. Last year. Beat Boston 3-2. They've also won the necessary games to secure a playoff spot, especially in 2017. Whether it is a head on head series, or a race down the stretch doesn't really make a difference in pressure or gained experience.

What we haven't done is won a best of seven series against a team that was actually in the top eight in the conference, and the benefits of experiencing that - beyond the joy and pride of winning, are most likely negligible.
 

67Leafs67

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All teams participate in the regular season. Not all teams are participating in this Play In round.
Not all teams are participating actually having a chance at making the playoffs down the stretch in the regular season though. In fact, this play-in is, if anything, diluting the quality of play, and increasing the number of teams participating in a playoff push. Teams like Montreal & Chicago, who had the smallest chances of making the playoffs, are now suddenly plunged back into the race. None of the seven teams who are left out were even in the mix anyways, they were all essentially eliminated already.
 

ACC1224

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Not all teams are participating actually having a chance at making the playoffs down the stretch in the regular season though. In fact, this play-in is, if anything, diluting the quality of play, and increasing the number of teams participating in a playoff push. Teams like Montreal & Chicago, who had the smallest chances of making the playoffs, are now suddenly plunged back into the race. None of the seven teams who are left out were even in the mix anyways, they were all essentially eliminated already.
Yes, those 7 Teams not playing would have had to play out the string against Teams trying to make the playoffs.
Some would see those as easier matchups than these play in series.
 

67Leafs67

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Yes, those 7 Teams not playing would have had to play out the string against Teams trying to make the playoffs.
Some would see those as easier matchups than these play in series.
Sure, but every team has to play them over the course of the season, and so every team has equal pressure to beat them. Your 'series' against Columbus consists not only of head to head matchups, but also matching or exceeding what they are able to do against every other team, including those seven teams. Look no further than Montreal and their play against Detroit to see how that can bite you in the ass.
 

LeafsNation75

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Except they have. Last year. Beat Boston 3-2. They've also won the necessary games to secure a playoff spot, especially in 2017. Whether it is a head on head series, or a race down the stretch doesn't really make a difference in pressure or gained experience.

What we haven't done is won a best of seven series against a team that was actually in the top eight in the conference, and the benefits of experiencing that - beyond the joy and pride of winning, are most likely negligible.
Yes they won 3 games against Boston in 2018 and 2019, however that didn't win them those series. So this year if they win those 3 games against Columbus this time they win a series that gets them into the playoffs.
 

ACC1224

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Sure, but every team has to play them over the course of the season, and so every team has equal pressure to beat them. Your 'series' against Columbus consists not only of head to head matchups, but also matching or exceeding what they are able to do against every other team, including those seven teams. Look no further than Montreal and their play against Detroit to see how that can bite you in the ass.
You don't feel Columbus will be more motivated in this series then say a team like Detroit who were out of the playoffs by Christmas and just playing out the string?
 

Myopic

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Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on this topic. Can someone give a brief summary on what's happening in the draft for the Leafs? I know they traded their first rounder but I assume there were clauses built in for a lottery pick? What's the latest?
 

LeafsNation75

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Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop on this topic. Can someone give a brief summary on what's happening in the draft for the Leafs? I know they traded their first rounder but I assume there were clauses built in for a lottery pick? What's the latest?
If Toronto defeats Columbus in their play in series Carolina gets their 1st round pick this year and it will fall between 16th - 31st overall.

If Toronto loses their play in series and wins the next lottery they get the 1st overall pick in 2020, so Carolina gets their 2021 1st round pick without any conditions.

If Toronto loses their play in series and doesn't get the 1st overall pick, Carolina gets the Maple Leafs pick this year and it will fall between 11th - 15th overall.
 

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