What are the chances Toronto's 2020 1st round pick is in the top 10 if they lose to Columbus?

[crump]

Well if the leafs get by the Jackets, it would be huge to actually win a playoff round, albeit a preliminary 5 gamer. I would like to see them try for teh cup, but if things don't work out against the jackets, it's still just a chance at the number 1 choice, not for sure, so I would take a cup run right now.

 

[Notsince67]

laf is projected to be a superstar right?
If he is there is no way they would trade him.

No. Not by everyone.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Any chance the Leafs would trade the pick?

I know it's crazy to even contemplate but I have to think they could address their blue line needs rather quickly in some package that brings a legit top 2/4 RD on a great contract (read: underpaid and with term)? They clearly have enough offence and are not exactly hurting on the left side with Mikheyev and Hyman in the top 6, plus Johnsson.

Barrie and Ceci will be gone before next season which means the right side has only Holl and Liljegren as natural RDs - the latter not guaranteed he's a full-time NHLer yet either. They still desperately need a top RD regardles.

Just throwing it out there but I'd think Dubas would listen to serious offers. At least I'd be curious what team would be willing to ante up for an NHL ready potential franchise player.

I was thinking of a scenario where the Leafs have the #1 pick & offer it to the Sens for picks #3 & #5.With the two picks the Leafs draft two high end blueliners.

 

[13pacheco31]

laf is projected to be a superstar right?
If he is there is no way they would trade him.

As nice as he'd be, I see an attractiveness I'm drafting a guy like byfield. He would instantly slot into that third line center role and the thought of having him on a line with Roberson and kapanen, sounds very appealing. I would definitely trade down with LA of they gave us a bunch of picks and/or prospects

 

[Canada4Gold]

I was thinking of a scenario where the Leafs have the #1 pick & offer it to the Sens for picks #3 & #5.With the two picks the Leafs draft two high end blueliners.

IMO there's only 1 defenceman worthy of being picked top 10 this year in Drysdale. Some are saying Sanderson but even if so that's still more in the range of 8. There's also a clear top 3 that doesn't include Drysdale. Taking Drysdale at 3 and Sanderson at 5 would both be considered big reaches.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If the Leafs win the draft lottery and are presented with the first overall selection, could they trade down out of the lottery to fulfill the Marleau contract terms and get a first round pick for 2021? Could they not trade the first overall selection with the team that holds #29/30/31 and also nab a selection for next year or multiple second/third/fourth round picks?

Yes they could do a stupid thing

 

[The Iceman]

Any chance the Leafs would trade the pick?

I know it's crazy to even contemplate but I have to think they could address their blue line needs rather quickly in some package that brings a legit top 2/4 RD on a great contract (read: underpaid and with term)? They clearly have enough offence and are not exactly hurting on the left side with Mikheyev and Hyman in the top 6, plus Johnsson.

Barrie and Ceci will be gone before next season which means the right side has only Holl and Liljegren as natural RDs - the latter not guaranteed he's a full-time NHLer yet either. They still desperately need a top RD regardles.

Just throwing it out there but I'd think Dubas would listen to serious offers. At least I'd be curious what team would be willing to ante up for an NHL ready potential franchise player.

Trading with Montreal who own a boatload of picks would make good sense for us.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Trading with Montreal who own a boatload of picks would make good sense for us.

Da habs and Sens accumulated those 2020 picks for a very good reason ... why would they change their strategy in best draft class in forever

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Trading with Montreal who own a boatload of picks would make good sense for us.

We have 6 picks in 6th and 7th rounds ... what Dubie should try to do is trade them for 2 3rd round picks ... that way we end up with a 2nd rounder and 2 3rd rounders or 3 chances in a draft which will go for 3 rounds ... good chance we get a player or 2 out of it rather than 6 lottery ball chances

 

[kb]

We have 6 picks in 6th and 7th rounds ... what Dubie should try to do is trade them for 2 3rd round picks ... that way we end up with a 2nd rounder and 2 3rd rounders or 3 chances in a draft which will go for 3 rounds ... good chance we get a player or 2 out of it rather than 6 lottery ball chances

No, unless you are going into the top-15, you might as well keep all your picks. Especially with Bergman.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No, unless you are going into the top-15, you might as well keep all your picks. Especially with Bergman.

You can keep all those picks but it is like having 6 1 in a 50,000 shots ... personally I would take the 2 3rd ounders in a deep draft but after thinking about it no one is going to do it for us ... we are going to have 1 good shot in 2020 so I am hoping Dubie pulls it off again and hits another home run ... it is possible in this draft class

 

[kb]

You can keep all those picks but it is like having 6 1 in a 50,000 shots ... personally I would take the 2 3rd ounders in a deep draft but after thinking about it no one is going to do it for us ... we are going to have 1 good shot in 2020 so I am hoping Dubie pulls it off again and hits another home run ... it is possible in this draft class

Well, the Leafs have done much better (recent) historically from the 6th/7th rounds rather than the 3rd. IMO I wouldn't trade up as the odds of getting an NHL player go up very little.

 

[kevsh]

As nice as he'd be, I see an attractiveness I'm drafting a guy like byfield. He would instantly slot into that third line center role and the thought of having him on a line with Roberson and kapanen, sounds very appealing. I would definitely trade down with LA of they gave us a bunch of picks and/or prospects

Still doesn't make sense to trade down to get a player filling a position they Leafs are already strong at while kicking the can down the road on an RD. I'd rather them just take Lafreniere at #1 if they're essentially set on keeping the pick. While they are solid on the left side as well (and the right) none of Johnsson, Hyman or Mikheyev is a legit 1st liner; Alexis likely will be.

And if they do either (draft Lafrieniere or move down for Byfield) what is their plan to address the blue line? Pray they outbid 8-10 teams for Pietrangelo?

Less important as Byfield could be moved around, even to the wing in the top 6, is pairing him with Kapanen. They both really love carrying the puck. Really love it. Not enough puck time to go around.

 

[67Leafs67]

Toronto's chances of picking 1st overall are 12.5% if they lose to Columbus.

Their odds of winning the Cup if they beat Columbus are probably ~6.5% give or take (depending on who they match up against in the first round).

Rationally, losing makes the most sense. Twice as good odds of winning something (1st OA pick), but this something is not only a 1x Championship, but a valuable asset and commodity that will increase future odds of winning the Cup for the next 15+ years if managed correctly.

Emotionally though - I just want to see this team win a playoff series. It's been 16 years. I don't want to make it 17, at the hands of Columbus of all teams, just to have a 12.5% chance at being the luckiest losers. Especially considering the depth of this draft...we have 10 picks in this draft (even though it is heavily backloaded), and I trust Dubas & Co's strength at the draft table to pick out some gems that other teams pass on.

Either way it will be a good draft for us, I have no doubt, so I just hope we beat Columbus, and hopefully win a few more rounds along the way.

 

[13pacheco31]

Still doesn't make sense to trade down to get a player filling a position they Leafs are already strong at while kicking the can down the road on an RD. I'd rather them just take Lafreniere at #1 if they're essentially set on keeping the pick. While they are solid on the left side as well (and the right) none of Johnsson, Hyman or Mikheyev is a legit 1st liner; Alexis likely will be.

And if they do either (draft Lafrieniere or move down for Byfield) what is their plan to address the blue line? Pray they outbid 8-10 teams for Pietrangelo?

Less important as Byfield could be moved around, even to the wing in the top 6, is pairing him with Kapanen. They both really love carrying the puck. Really love it. Not enough puck time to go around.

Byfield adds the sandpaper they so desperately need though. This is the unicorn that dubas has been looking for. Skill, but with size and some grit. I'll take that over laf. It also gives the leafs some flexibility to trade some guys and maybe get that RD. I'm not holding my breath on pie coming here

 

[67Leafs67]

Well, the Leafs have done much better (recent) historically from the 6th/7th rounds rather than the 3rd. IMO I wouldn't trade up as the odds of getting an NHL player go up very little.

Yeah trading up is pretty much always a bad idea, unless it is very, very early in the draft for lesser commodities. Most of the time, more picks is always better, especially in the late rounds. Teams are always leaving tons of good, but overlooked, prospects on the table for the Leafs to scoop up.

 

[ACC1224]

Toronto's chances of picking 1st overall are 12.5% if they lose to Columbus.

Their odds of winning the Cup if they beat Columbus are probably ~6.5% give or take (depending on who they match up against in the first round).

Rationally, losing makes the most sense. Twice as good odds of winning something (1st OA pick), but this something is not only a 1x Championship, but a valuable asset and commodity that will increase future odds of winning the Cup for the next 15+ years if managed correctly.

Emotionally though - I just want to see this team win a playoff series. It's been 16 years. I don't want to make it 17, at the hands of Columbus of all teams, just to have a 12.5% chance at being the luckiest losers. Especially considering the depth of this draft...we have 10 picks in this draft (even though it is heavily backloaded), and I trust Dubas & Co's strength at the draft table to pick out some gems that other teams pass on.

Either way it will be a good draft for us, I have no doubt, so I just hope we beat Columbus, and hopefully win a few more rounds along the way.

Won't losing show that this Team is regressing and is further away from a cup than they were the past 3 years?
I don't see how that could be viewed positively.

 

[ottomaddox]

It's none of my business what TOR fans cheer for, but I've never seen so much excitement over the slim possibility of landing the first overall. It's fun to geek out about these best case losing scenarios, but are we losing perspective here? Why cheer for losing? We can draft until our hearts content by moving Marner, Rielly, Matthews, Nylander, Muzzin, etc. but what is the point? Is this a product of HFBOARDS culture or are people starting to see a cynical side to this current team + organization?

 

[67Leafs67]

Won't losing show that this Team is regressing and is further away from a cup than they were the past 3 years?
I don't see how that could be viewed positively.

A best of five playoff series is essentially a coin toss, so I don't see it as any kind of definitive evidence that the team is regressing, especially after a 3+ month hiatus from real, game scenario hockey.

Even if it were a regression, that's pretty normal. No NHL team progresses in a linear fashion. Some seasons you take a little step back, and then you take a little step forward, and keep going up and down. Look at teams like the Capitals, Lightning, or Bruins, who have been in the mix for the last decade or so, but have all even missed the playoffs at least once in the same time, but then retooled to be a bit stronger. At a certain level you can't get "better" every season - you just do your best to stay good. Good enough to make the playoffs, which are essentially a slightly weighted crapshoot every season, based more on hot-sticks, streaky goaltending, and good luck than the actual on-ice talent of each team involved in a series. Ideally, you stay good for 25+ seasons like Detroit, and maybe win 4-5 championships in that time.

The positive of losing the series is that it doubles our odds of getting something good (12.5% of lottery win vs 6.5% chance of Stanley Cup win), and that thing we might win (Lafreniere) is an actual asset, not just a trophy memorializing a tournament victory. Of course, the Stanley Cup carries a lot more significance, but not technical value that can be accrued towards winning more games & Stanley Cups in the future.

 

[67Leafs67]

It's none of my business what TOR fans cheer for, but I've never seen so much excitement over the slim possibility of landing the first overall. It's fun to geek out about these best case losing scenarios, but are we losing perspective here? Why cheer for losing? We can draft until our hearts content by moving Marner, Rielly, Matthews, Nylander, Muzzin, etc. but what is the point? Is this a product of HFBOARDS culture or are people starting to see a cynical side to this current team + organization?

I for one, am not excited about it at all, and I'm absolutely cheering for them to win this series. I'd hate to see them lose, but I can't deny that rationally, losing makes more sense, as much as my emotional attachment to the slight chance of winning the Cup rebels against that notion.

 

[ottomaddox]

I for one, am not excited about it at all, and I'm absolutely cheering for them to win this series. I'd hate to see them lose, but I can't deny that rationally, losing makes more sense, as much as my emotional attachment to the slight chance of winning the Cup rebels against that notion.

"slight chance of winning the Cup" I think perhaps all of us should be cheering for a play-in win and more. It seems to me that getting a chance to beat CBJ and hopefully more would be more valueable than any draft pick. There are so many examples (even recent ones) of teams drafting near the top year after year and not getting anywhere.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Well, the Leafs have done much better (recent) historically from the 6th/7th rounds rather than the 3rd. IMO I wouldn't trade up as the odds of getting an NHL player go up very little.

This years 3rds are like most years 2nds.
Next year -2021's- many many teams 1st rounders will get traded for UFA pickups. I think you will see almost every playoff team including hopefully our Leafs give up their 1st for a player down stretch. Next year is ideal year to do it when player draft pool is weak.

 

[67Leafs67]

"slight chance of winning the Cup" I think perhaps all of us should be cheering for a play-in win and more. It seems to me that getting a chance to beat CBJ and hopefully more would be more valueable than any draft pick. There are so many examples (even recent ones) of teams drafting near the top year after year and not getting anywhere.

Of course I'm cheering for us to win.

But denying that all we have is a slight chance is foolish. Even the best teams have at best, about a 20% chance of making it through the gauntlet of four series of best-of-seven. It is 4x more likely that they will lose than that they will win.

I also don't agree that winning a play-in series has any value to the team, beyond a morale boost for the fans, and a pleasant experience. The whole notion of 'experience' and 'winning culture' seems very overblown if that's what you are implying. We've already gone 3-2 in the playoffs before, so it won't be a new experience for us.

Also, Toronto is not at all comparable to the teams that draft at the top year after year and never get anywhere. We've been a playoff team for 4 years in a row now, and haven't picked in the top half of the first round since then. Just because we've irrationally had to play a team better than us in the first round each of the last two seasons, and have struggled to win, doesn't mean we 'haven't gotten anywhere'. A team like Buffalo, who has been 'rebuilding' for years (or Toronto from 2005 to 2015 for that matter), is a totally different animal than if Toronto were to get Lafreniere in some weird, pandemic induced oddball chance.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[ottomaddox]

Of course I'm cheering for us to win.

But denying that all we have is a slight chance is foolish. Even the best teams have at best, about a 20% chance of making it through the gauntlet of four series of best-of-seven. It is 4x more likely that they will lose than that they will win.

I also don't agree that winning a play-in series has any value to the team, beyond a morale boost for the fans, and a pleasant experience. The whole notion of 'experience' and 'winning culture' seems very overblown if that's what you are implying. We've already gone 3-2 in the playoffs before, so it won't be a new experience for us.

Also, Toronto is not at all comparable to the teams that draft at the top year after year and never get anywhere. We've been a playoff team for 4 years in a row now, and haven't picked in the top half of the first round since then. Just because we've irrationally had to play a team better than us in the first round each of the last two seasons, and have struggled to win, doesn't mean we 'haven't gotten anywhere'. A team like Buffalo, who has been 'rebuilding' for years (or Toronto from 2005 to 2015 for that matter), is a totally different animal than if Toronto were to get Lafreniere in some weird, pandemic induced oddball chance.

It's not irrational. The design of the playoffs make it rational.

Also losing to Boston in 7 doesn't mean TOR was the 3rd best team in the playoffs.

Winning a series will do wonders for:
1) young players
2) Andersen
3) Keefe / Dubas / Shanny (they keep their jobs)