What’s up with Kadri?

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,532
Ottawa
Kadri played very well last night. He's been getting his share of chances, they just haven't been going in. He has an oiSH% of 3.4% right now. I dare to say that's unsustainable...
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
51,546
32,305
He's been really unlucky and on a cold streak essentially. He's missed some glorious chances in the last couple games especially.

He hasn't been dominating or anything but definitely better than what his stats line shows.
 

BillNy

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
477
198
It's eight games. Kadri went long stretches without goals at points the last two years. He's played with Connor Brown, Par Lindholm, and a little with Josh Leivo. He's more of a facilitator on the powerplay, the shooting opportunities go to Tavares and Matthews. His xG total (I'm generally more of a Corsi purist with analytics, but fwiw), is 1.46 at 5on5. So, multiply that by 10.25, because 10.25x8GP=82... well, that's about 15 5on5 goals, which is fine. From 2015-16 to 2017-18, he had 44 goals on 46.33 xGF, so it pretty much works out, if he had 46.33 xGF the last three years, well 1/3 of that is just a little over 15. His individual xG/60 at 5on5 from 2015-16 to 2017-18 is 0.84, and this year it's 0.83. All this really tells you? He's still taking shots/shot attempts, and they're still from around the net. He probably scored a little better than he should have in 2016-17 and 2017-18, and a good chunk less than you should have expected in 2015-16.

He's probably a 25-27 goal scorer as a true talent, but on this three year stretch, had a disaster first year, and a strong last two, but that round 30 goal number blows some minds. Do the math, 81 goals in three years = 27 goals per year. You don't say "well, he'll go on a tear to make up for the first eight games" cuz that's a gambler's fallacy, but the pucks will start going in for him. He still drives play. He has the highest CF% of any Leaf forward despite everyone in the top-six having a linemate who might make the Hall of Fame (this is MIGHT, don't jump down my throat over counting Marleau and Marner, I wouldn't vote Marleau anyway), while he plays with Connor Brown and Par Lindholm. He gets like, decently rough zone starts. I think he's fine, and hey, maybe he'll get lucky when Nylander gets back and he'll have one of him or Kapanen to play with.

Anyway, Kadri will be fine. I actually think the Leafs look like shit early on, and while I think a lot of the "they're not ready!" talk is dumb, it's not the kids holding them back as it's the fact that Zaitsev, Marleau and Hainsey are cooked, and uh okay, one kid, and I love him, but Connor Brown has not looked good since his rookie year. They also have a really predictable game plan that Babcock refuses to fix, and their breakouts lead to a lot of times where Hainsey or Zaitsev have to advance the puck and float it into the neutral zone, and if they don't, whichever of Rielly, Gardiner, or Dermott are with them is trying to break out with two forwards on them. Justin Bourne had a good bit on it in The Athletic during the playoffs. But Kadri'll be fine, even if this is looking like another first round exit if they make the playoffs.
 

Nizdizzle

Offseason Is The Worst Season
Jul 7, 2007
13,861
6,874
Windsor, Ontario
twitter.com
I think Kadri has played pretty well for most of the games this season, I think he was really strong last night against the Penguins. He kept them pinned in their zone most of the time he was on the ice and had some really strong cycles (Kadri had 69.7% Corsi last night). He is a player that gets in his own head when snakebit (I'm surprised people don't remember that the "Whats wrong with Kadri??" is a yearly thread, and then he ends up scoring 30 goals), and gets frustrated. Once he pops his first this year, the gates will open.
 

TOGuy14

Registered User
Dec 30, 2010
12,061
3,571
Toronto
HFBoards: It is way too small of a sample size to call Matthews, Marner and Tavares elite at their current production!

Also HFBoards: 8 games underperforming? Kadri definitely sucks and here come a bunch of definitive hot takes about him
 

Coffey

☠️not a homer☠️
Sponsor
Sep 27, 2017
9,529
14,925
Phase 4 HMV
Kadri own goal?

FaRXUHP.jpg


(Don't attack me, Leaf fans. I need this after the Russell debacle.)
 

Sypher04

Registered User
Jan 20, 2011
11,360
9,540
99% of Leafs fans have expected he'd have at least some degree of regression in his production with Tavares coming in, so to anyone trying to paint this situation as 'the realist non-Leafs fans telling the unrealistic leaf fans this would happen' they can kindly cram it.

Also we're 8 games in. Kadri has had worse stretches in the last 2 years.
 

NotNotALeafsFan

Registered User
Oct 11, 2013
516
179
Toronto
Leafs fans told me he would score 30g 30assist on the third line lol
Not quite 30 assists but he has scored 32 goals & 23+ assists on the third line, twice, lol.

No ice time and the second PP hardly gets out an misses Nylander.
Kadri plays first line PP & his ice time is down 1 minute a game from the last 2 seasons.

I was told he was supposed to be feasting against weak competition this year playing on the 3rd line?
He did the last two years, what makes you think differently? 8 games?

Not really a surprise, you'd expect his numbers will go down this year as the 3rd line C.
If his numbers go down, it’s not because he’s playing third line. He’s played third line for the past two seasons & has 64 goals over those two seasons.

Marner refitalized his year last year. Now has much worse wingers and Kadri can’t carry a line. Not a shutdown C either.
Marner & Kadri played separate lines last year, minus a few games.

Clearly a lot of people who are just complaining and don’t know much about the player.
 
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Bedards Dad

I was in the pool!!
Nov 3, 2011
13,716
8,272
Toronto
Snake bitten. He had a WIDE open net last night and Murray robs the living crap out of him. It happens.

Bad start, I hope he can get going soon, even the 4th line has been more productive.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
3 C ... Kadri vs. Lowry (just the stats)...

2017/18 and 2018/19 (to date), 5v5:

Points / 60: Kadri 1.65, Lowry 2.14
CF%: Kadri 49.0, Lowry 56.8
relCF%: Kadri -1.26, Lowry +4.9
G +/-: Kadri -3, Lowry +7
GF%: Kadri 48.4, Lowry 57.8
xGF%: Kadri 48.9, Lowry 58.7

Pretty clear-cut advantage for Lowry...
 

Paris in Flames

Registered User
Feb 4, 2009
15,903
7,935
So it’s too early to draw positive conclusions about anyone’s start, but it’s a fair time to draw negative conclusions? Hmm. That doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.

It’s almost like HF wants to push a narrative rather than provide insight? Weird.

Came to post this. It's funny that it's too early to praise people but it seems like plenty of enough time to condemn people.

Kadri is fine. He's hit multiple posts. He's getting chances. They'll start to go in.
 

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