What I was attempting to convey is that when one takes into consideration the player evaluation side in this case, it ultimately makes the decision worse. If I sell a stock today at $42.00, and its $47.00 next month, its a bad decision. If the underlying quantitative and qualitative data that existed at the time indicated that there was a likelihood said stock would increase, then it means I did a very bad job at evaluating said stock.
Dwight Smith producing 0.7 fWAR in his first 21 MLB games, which would make him the 3rd highest grossing Blue Jay to date this season, looks bad, small sample size or not.
Maybe the front office determined that the "likelihood" of the stock increasing was slim to none hence why they made the trade.
But again you are forming your opinion leaving key elements out of the equation that need to be considered;
1. Sample size (huge huge huge factor here)
2. Sure you sold at $42 and now its at $47, but a stock can drop below that or go higher. There isnt always an upward trajectory, stocks can drop faster than they rise (i.e. injury)
3. Its a simplistic approach as there are many variables your comparison doesnt take into account - mainly other factors forcing you to move this stock (player) or another, limited spots etc.
There is too much time for Smith's value to drop or even raise. Its reckless to make this determination after 90 PAs, its like me saying i expect Galvis to keep up and be a 4-5 WAR player after 92 PAs.
The difference being that those two players are not, and were not, ready for the majors. Which has been confirmed in the case of Romano, and yet to be determined in the case of Bergen. Further to the prior point, wanting to move him is not intelligent - which is ultimately my point.
This is the fundamental disagreement. Other than saying you "liked" him you never once called out Jays for saying this is not an intelligent move at the time. You even said "very meh on his future outlook." Looks like a hindsight is 20/20.
Blue Jays Discussion: - So long Pillar, and thanks for all the catches
Give it time, if we are here in July and Smith is substantially better player than 3-4 of Grichuk, McKinney, Alford, Pompey and/or Hernandez and we did nothing with the IFA space then i will be glad to revisit this conversation and agree with you.
Again, the pool funds expire July 1. The majority of worthwhile prospects have signed or committed.
Again, still lots of time to use and even more to find out if they will amount to anything. We may not land a Yolbert Sanchez with the money but you can land lesser prospect who arent "worthwhile" but can still contribute down the line.
A lot has to be determined in this equation.
