NFL GDT: Week 5 - Part 2 - MNF conclusion

Oct 18, 2011
44,064
9,673
Damn Rivers has almost identical numbers to Mahomes yet he's really not getting much recognition this year
 

Roboturner913

Registered User
Jul 3, 2012
25,853
55,526
I mean, sure, if all you care about is rings, but that's even worse of a barometer than QB winz. Otherwise the table above tells a different tale.

Meh.

You disregard the stats Brees leads Manning in as "trash stats" while inflating the importance of the 5 stats from the table which are literally decimal point number differences. It's convenient for your argument but not a very honest look at the cumulative body of work for each player.

I don't buy the argument
 

Avs_19

Registered User
Jun 28, 2007
84,508
32,088
Did I hear this right, Stafford is currently on pace to break this record Brees just set?
 

Roboturner913

Registered User
Jul 3, 2012
25,853
55,526
Did I hear this right, Stafford is currently on pace to break this record Brees just set?

He would have to play until age 40 and keep putting up 4200-4400 yard seasons. And that's if Brees retired today or even after this year, which he probably won't.

IDK, that dude takes a lot of hits, hard to see him playing that long.
 

Avs_19

Registered User
Jun 28, 2007
84,508
32,088
He would have to play until age 40 and keep putting up 4200-4400 yard seasons. And that's if Brees retired today or even after this year, which he probably won't.

IDK, that dude takes a lot of hits, hard to see him playing that long.

Stafford holding the all-time passing yards record, even for a short period of time, just wouldn’t feel right.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
Meh.

You disregard the stats Brees leads Manning in as "trash stats" while inflating the importance of the 5 stats from the table which are literally decimal point number differences. It's convenient for your argument but not a very honest look at the cumulative body of work for each player.

I don't buy the argument

Because completion percentage and QB rating are trash stats. Cam's completion percentage this year is 65.7%, which is far higher than his career 58.8% mark. He didn't suddenly figure out how to throw the ball, he's throwing passes closer to the line of scrimmage. The rating formula incorporates this.

Those 5 stats are the ones that matter. How far you can move your team up the field, how often you throw TDs or interceptions, what percentage of your throws end up as one of those, and how many sacks you take (which is at least partially on the QB). Because they're rate statistics, those "literally decimal point number differences" matter. They add up. It's why Manning has 40 more TDs than Brees despite fewer attempts. It's completely honest. What's dishonest is looking at cumulative totals. Because someone has been doing something for longer does not mean they're better at it. Matthew Stafford is a prime example. Nobody should confuse him as being better than Brees simply because he throws the ball 39 times a game, but he has a decent chance to end up as the career yardage leader.

Brees is great, and it's a shame he doesn't get more recognition. But he isn't better than Peyton.
 

Roboturner913

Registered User
Jul 3, 2012
25,853
55,526
I won't argue this point anymore, because there's no point to it when you're intent on only paying attention to the stats that serve your own argument and everything else is "trash." This seems pretty disingenuous, but whatever, you're not going to change my mind and I'm not going to change yours.

I will however point out that I did not say "cumulative totals." I said "cumulative body of work" which would include statistics but is not limited to statistics.
 
Last edited:

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
I won't argue this point anymore, because there's no point to it when you're intent on only paying attention to the stats that serve your own argument and everything else is "trash." This seems pretty disingenuous, but whatever, you're not going to change my mind and I'm not going to change yours.

I will however point out that I did not say "cumulative totals." I said "cumulative body of work" which would include statistics but is not limited to statistics.

Suit yourself. I'm not sure what else you'd rely on. Maybe Brees is a better person, but that doesn't make him a better quarterback.

And I'm not intent on doing anything. I'm telling you what the numbers are, and the numbers don't lie. Whether you accept that or not is not my problem. They are what they are. It's hilarious to me that you think I'm writing a narrative because you don't understand (or care to accept) the difference between rates and totals.
 

m9

m9
Sponsor
Jan 23, 2010
25,107
15,229
Is there a stat anywhere that is simply "points per drive" for a QB? Many of the stats are skewed based on if at the end of a drive a QB passed it in or a RB ran it in.

I just care if the drive led the team to scoring a TD or a FG. Whichever QB is the best at that stat is the best QB. I would think that the best QB's in the league show up in the top five of that list every year.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
Is there a stat anywhere that is simply "points per drive" for a QB? Many of the stats are skewed based on if at the end of a drive a QB passed it in or a RB ran it in.

I just care if the drive led the team to scoring a TD or a FG. Whichever QB is the best at that stat is the best QB. I would think that the best QB's in the league show up in the top five of that list every year.

Football Outsiders has it:


989900010203040506070809101112131415161718
PM IND1.7 (12)2.25 (2)2.35 (4)2.01 (4)1.93 (15)2.48 (1)2.93 (1)2.64 (1)2.80 (1)2.70 (2)2.41 (4)2.43 (4)2.34 (3)
DB SD1.66 (21)1.65 (14)*2.54 (3)2.35 (4)
DB NO2.17 (4)1.92 (11)2.54 (1)2.56 (2)2.17 (7)2.98 (2)2.35 (4)2.40 (3)2.35 (5)2.24 (6)2.65 (2)2.44 (2)3.46 (1)
PM DEN2.38 (3)2.98 (1)2.48 (4)1.64 (24)*
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
*Denotes injury. Brees also missed one game in 2004, 2009, and 2015.

Manning has been in the top five in 13 of 17 seasons while Brees has done it in 12 of 16 and is currently doing it this year. Manning led the league in 5 years while Brees has done it once and is currently leading. Head to head, Manning beat Brees in points per drive in 10 of 13 seasons.

I didn't look too hard at Brady, but the Patriots do pop up here and there.

Sorry for the shitty visualization. Not sure why I didn't stick them next to each other, and it's not copy and pastable.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Avs_19

m9

m9
Sponsor
Jan 23, 2010
25,107
15,229
Football Outsiders has it:


989900010203040506070809101112131415161718
PM IND1.7 (12)2.25 (2)2.35 (4)2.01 (4)1.93 (15)2.48 (1)2.93 (1)2.64 (1)2.80 (1)2.70 (2)2.41 (4)2.43 (4)2.34 (3)
DB SD1.66 (21)1.65 (14)*2.54 (3)2.35 (4)
DB NO2.17 (4)1.92 (11)2.54 (1)2.56 (2)2.17 (7)2.98 (2)2.35 (4)2.40 (3)2.35 (5)2.24 (6)2.65 (2)2.44 (2)3.46 (1)
PM DEN2.38 (3)2.98 (1)2.48 (4)1.64 (24)*
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
*Denotes injury. Brees also missed one game in 2004, 2009, and 2015.

Manning has been in the top five in 13 of 17 seasons while Brees has done it in 12 of 16 and is currently doing it this year. Manning led the league in 5 years while Brees has done it once and is currently leading. Head to head, Manning beat Brees in points per drive in 10 of 13 seasons.

I didn't look too hard at Brady, but the Patriots do pop up here and there.

Sorry for the ****ty visualization. Not sure why I didn't stick them next to each other, and it's not copy and pastable.

That's awesome, thanks.

I've honestly never seen these charts, but this correlates perfectly in regards to my thoughts on these two guys and how to interpret their regular season stats. Both guys have had incredible careers, but Manning had just a couple extra years where he was the best QB in the league. Factor in the playoff work, and Manning gets the slight edge to me. It also shows how good Brees has been the last 2-3 years and has definitely been overshadowed by Brady, Rodgers, and some others.

I am sure Brady and Rodgers both do pretty well on this list too, though Brady is probably a bit lower but you'll have to factor his playoff success in there a ton.
 
  • Like
Reactions: What the Faulk

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->