We dodged a bullet with Neal

[Vegas Mac]

Looking back over the past season, I am thankful the Knights were shrewd enough to not invest in James Neal. His performance with the Flames last season from his career low in points to his defensive play leading to him being a healthy scratch prior to their early playoff exit seem to demonstrate the Knights took the right approach in letting another team ink him to that five year deal.

Sometimes the best deals for a GM are the ones he doesn't make.

Click to read more...

 

[CupInSIX]

And yet on the main board people are laughing about the big contracts McPhee has handed out to put them over the cap. Pretty ballsy to let Neal & Perron walk and trust the younger core. You gotta have stones.

Or at least one.

 

[CupInSIX]

Also dodged a bullet with Erik Karlsson.

 

[Super Cake]

We dodged a bullet with Neal, but we got hit by another bullet with Pacioretty.

 

[CupInSIX]

We dodged a bullet with Neal, but we got hit by another bullet with Pacioretty.

7m x 4 for a 2nd liner is the going rate these days

 

[Boris Zubov]

We dodged a bullet with Neal, but we got hit by another bullet with Pacioretty.

Why is everyone so down on Patches?

 

[Vegan Knight]

Why is everyone so down on Patches?

I think it has more to do with Stone and Gusev making him and his salary a bit redundant.

 

[Pirate Deadpool]

McPhee isn't God like many local fans believe him to be. He makes a lot of mistakes. Other teams fans are right because he has overpaid and made some suspect player choices. I feel that its worse to overpay bad players over overpaying good players. McPhee has underpaid many core guys yet he overpays scrubs. And Fleury also shouldn't have been extended after the first season. There was no way that he would have another career season so why not wait til this season to negotiate? He did that with Wild Bill and it paid off. I'm sure that Fleury could have been had for $6M or less especially when you point out the difference in tax rates if he signed elsewhere.

I still believe that Patches will bounce back. He did great in the playoffs. He just needs to stay healthy. I think that he gets into a few too many scraps that leads to his hand issues.

 

[CupInSIX]

McPhee isn't God like many local fans believe him to be. He makes a lot of mistakes. Other teams fans are right because he has overpaid and made some suspect player choices. I feel that its worse to overpay bad players over overpaying good players. McPhee has underpaid many core guys yet he overpays scrubs. And Fleury also shouldn't have been extended after the first season. There was no way that he would have another career season so why not wait til this season to negotiate? He did that with Wild Bill and it paid off. I'm sure that Fleury could have been had for $6M or less especially when you point out the difference in tax rates if he signed elsewhere.

I still believe that Patches will bounce back. He did great in the playoffs. He just needs to stay healthy. I think that he gets into a few too many scraps that leads to his hand issues.

Stastny - fair value for a UFA, very good considering the term
Patches - overpayment, but an acceptable term
Stone - fair value for a pending UFA. A bit of an overpayment but he's the best player on the team.
Marchessault - amazing value for a top line talent
McNabb - great value for a Methot-like player that can play on any pairing
Fleury - overpayment on a future HOF goaltender
Karlsson - amazing deal
Tuch - top 6 winger locked up before RFA costs skyrocket.
Theodore - #2 dman locked up long term before RFA costs skyrocket.
Schmidt - #1 dman locked up long term for under 6m.
Reaves - massively overpaid just to not give him 3 years term for some reason

So maybe 6m in overpayments
but around 8m in discounts plus a lot of good prospects on ELCs.

That's not even taking into account how good the Rielly Smith 'cap dump' looks, and Eakin's 3.8m comes off the books next season.

But getting back on topic, you also have to factor in not giving a bad contract to Neal...

 

[Vegas Mac]

McPhee isn't God like many local fans believe him to be. He makes a lot of mistakes. Other teams fans are right because he has overpaid and made some suspect player choices. I feel that its worse to overpay bad players over overpaying good players. McPhee has underpaid many core guys yet he overpays scrubs. And Fleury also shouldn't have been extended after the first season. There was no way that he would have another career season so why not wait til this season to negotiate? He did that with Wild Bill and it paid off. I'm sure that Fleury could have been had for $6M or less especially when you point out the difference in tax rates if he signed elsewhere.

I still believe that Patches will bounce back. He did great in the playoffs. He just needs to stay healthy. I think that he gets into a few too many scraps that leads to his hand issues.

Yeah and no GM bats a thousand. None of these guys' moves can stand up to long-term scrutiny.

But the truth is McPhee made more mistakes in his first big gig with Washington and probably learned from them. These guys are human. They're not the "characters" that board members want to paint them as, where with McPhee for example the old mistakes get dredged up and paraded around to prove he's not at the top of his game. The McPhee who was hired here in Vegas was older and wiser and frankly a better GM thus far than he was in Washington and that's saying a lot btw as he built some very impressive teams up there.

I think right now he's at the top of his game, either way. He has made mistakes here like the Reaves signing. But his mistakes are so overshadowed by the shrewd moves that I simply don't understand how fans can act like he's the same GM he was. He's not. He's the experienced GM who learned some things the hard way and emerged from those days in Washington ready to do it right in round two.

I'll close with the observation of how close this team was to another deep run. If that unfortunate ending to the series vs SJ had gone a little differently who knows what happens. Two years in our roster is strong with key players locked down under club control and the first wave of prospects due to emerge on the scene. We are living in a glorious era right now as fans.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Yeah and no GM bats a thousand. None of these guys' moves can stand up to long-term scrutiny.

But the truth is McPhee made more mistakes in his first big gig with Washington and probably learned from them. These guys are human. They're not the "characters" that board members want to paint them as, where with McPhee for example the old mistakes get dredged up and paraded around to prove he's not at the top of his game. The McPhee who was hired here in Vegas was older and wiser and frankly a better GM thus far than he was in Washington and that's saying a lot btw as he built some very impressive teams up there.

I think right now he's at the top of his game, either way. He has made mistakes here like the Reaves signing. But his mistakes are so overshadowed by the shrewd moves that I simply don't understand how fans can act like he's the same GM he was. He's not. He's the experienced GM who learned some things the hard way and emerged from those days in Washington ready to do it right in round two.

I'll close with the observation of how close this team was to another deep run. If that unfortunate ending to the series vs SJ had gone a little differently who knows what happens. Two years in our roster is strong with key players locked down under club control and the first wave of prospects due to emerge on the scene. We are living in a glorious era right now as fans.

Even if the right call was made we could have lost. If the Sharks get a power play they probably get one or two goals. That game still had to be won.

The Sharks also barely got by the Avalanche with another disputed call so we could have lost that series.

Point being, I think it isn't right to count last season as a de facto playoff run, we lost in the first round.

 

[Vegas Mac]

Even if the right call was made we could have lost. If the Sharks get a power play they probably get one or two goals. That game still had to be won.

The Sharks also barely got by the Avalanche with another disputed call so we could have lost that series.

Point being, I think it isn't right to count last season as a de facto playoff run, we lost in the first round.

I'm not counting it as anything. Rather I am observing that the difference in winning and losing in the playoffs is so tight that you can be close in terms of your roster building and still get knocked out early. Fans tend to see an early exit and take a very negative view. GMs are looking deeper and further. They understand how close things are once you get to a point and aren't going to overreact.

This roster is in very good shape and I think some fans miss that.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I'm not counting it as anything. Rather I am observing that the difference in winning and losing in the playoffs is so tight that you can be close in terms of your roster building and still get knocked out early. Fans tend to see an early exit and take a very negative view. GMs are looking deeper and further. They understand how close things are once you get to a point and aren't going to overreact.

This roster is in very good shape and I think some fans miss that.

We were also 16th in the league. Now, 60 games of Stone and 20 games of Schmidt might take that team higher but other teams have gotten better and had injuries or absences of players.

Our defense is worse, and our fourth line may be weaker. If we lose Gusev, our third line is no better.

I'm not saying McPhee has done awful or that I am personally upset with his work but things are not all rosy with the team. I think we have a good team but I would probably put the team in the third tier of contenders.

 

[HanSolo]

Also dodged a bullet with Erik Karlsson.

That's what I was worried about when we were a frontrunner. Injuries like that are no joke. Personally I'm glad we didn't pay what it would have cost.

 

[Vegan Knight]

That's what I was worried about when we were a frontrunner. Injuries like that are no joke. Personally I'm glad we didn't pay what it would have cost.

I would have had no problem paying a 1st, 2nd and 3rd on top of Suzuki to get him for our inaugural playoff run. We also would not have Pacioretty or Tatar but that's fine if we still trade for Stone. That contract he signed? No part of that.

 

[Vegas Mac]

We were also 16th in the league. Now, 60 games of Stone and 20 games of Schmidt might take that team higher but other teams have gotten better and had injuries or absences of players.

Our defense is worse, and our fourth line may be weaker. If we lose Gusev, our third line is no better.

I'm not saying McPhee has done awful or that I am personally upset with his work but things are not all rosy with the team. I think we have a good team but I would probably put the team in the third tier of contenders.

Our inaugural season the team played above their talent level. Last season they played below their talent level, and I think there were a lot of chemistry issues that prevented the team from maximizing their talent.

Rosters aren't always linear. It's not always going to be "this group is worse and if we lose xxx this unit is worse." GMs have to correctly see what their level of talent is and project where they need to improve. But anyway. Just looking at this roster, I think you are way off in expecting a bottom third tier team. I think Hague is going to be a fine addition to the blueline. Glass probably won't make the team in camp, but if he does even better. Roy is a bit of a wildcard, but between him and Glass you have two skilled young players who can give the bottom half of the roster a boost.

2019-20 is gonna be a good time for us.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Our inaugural season the team played above their talent level. Last season they played below their talent level, and I think there were a lot of chemistry issues that prevented the team from maximizing their talent.

Rosters aren't always linear. It's not always going to be "this group is worse and if we lose xxx this unit is worse." GMs have to correctly see what their level of talent is and project where they need to improve. But anyway. Just looking at this roster, I think you are way off in expecting a bottom third tier team. I think Hague is going to be a fine addition to the blueline. Glass probably won't make the team in camp, but if he does even better. Roy is a bit of a wildcard, but between him and Glass you have two skilled young players who can give the bottom half of the roster a boost.

2019-20 is gonna be a good time for us.

I think I meant a third tier contending team. There are teams in categories for me, with four or five in each group and I think there are two groups of four or five ahead of this team.

Hague would probably not play most of the season, in my opinion. Whitecloud is a RD and Schuldt is older and more ready to make the leap to the NHL. I think they want to give Hague plenty of time to work on his skating.

Glass probably spends a lot of the season in the AHL. Roy may help ease Bellemare not being re-signed but I think not more.

Engelland will be on the roster but is older and Miller is gone, our defense isn't good enough for me to put us higher than that.

 

[willy702]

Offshore sports books have Vegas as the second choice to win the Cup right now. They don't have to worry about local betting so those are pretty accurate views of the market.

Point being I think it's crazy to view this as a third tier whatever. Tampa clearly deserves #1 consideration but the Knights are really loaded for an NHL team. To think the floundering last month of the season or the slow start with no Nate were reflective of the talent today is foolish. If they are motivated, healthy, and going full on this is as good as any team, with or without Gusev.

 

[willy702]

McPhee isn't God like many local fans believe him to be. He makes a lot of mistakes. Other teams fans are right because he has overpaid and made some suspect player choices. I feel that its worse to overpay bad players over overpaying good players. McPhee has underpaid many core guys yet he overpays scrubs. And Fleury also shouldn't have been extended after the first season. There was no way that he would have another career season so why not wait til this season to negotiate? He did that with Wild Bill and it paid off. I'm sure that Fleury could have been had for $6M or less especially when you point out the difference in tax rates if he signed elsewhere.

I still believe that Patches will bounce back. He did great in the playoffs. He just needs to stay healthy. I think that he gets into a few too many scraps that leads to his hand issues.

No GM is a God, many fans don't even know who the GM is. You read too much into this. He's made mistakes here and of course in Washington, but I think he gets the big picture stuff right more often than not. He won't say it but the thing I think he doesn't get enough credit for is realizing the nature of team structure evolves and he hit it right. Part of that was just accepting the limitations of being an expansion team, but I think some big picture themes are playing out and VGK are doing well on them. For one, I think the gap between the top 5 D and say the 5th best D on most teams is nowhere near as great as it used to be. Wasn't that long ago you would use your 3rd pair D 5-7 minutes a game. You really had to, an elite D man could do things 5th and 6th D men could not do like carry the puck or make good passes in the offensive zone. Now you get a guy like Colin Miller who's thought of as an average at best D man with some deficiencies by us, but he would have been a 1st pairing player not that long ago. The lower end D is catching up and I think the GMs kind of figured out relying on a bunch of guys would work. I think that's what drove the Holden decision, but they just didn't see he wasn't quite a philosophical fit with the quick exits and joining the rush style.

I think they also saw how much you build around your center depth and how having two-way players is preferrable to guys like Neal and Perron who regularly can get undressed in their own end because they aren't paying attention to the details. Those kind of details seem to drive the decisions. They certainly don't get them all right and every team tends to overpay their own guys to some degree. I'm sure if he knew Gusev was coming before last season's signing period things might have played out differently, but that was a very uncertain turn of events and hard to fault a guy for not planning on having a few million dollars around when he didn't expect to need them. `

 

[Vegan Knight]

Offshore sports books have Vegas as the second choice to win the Cup right now. They don't have to worry about local betting so those are pretty accurate views of the market.

Point being I think it's crazy to view this as a third tier whatever. Tampa clearly deserves #1 consideration but the Knights are really loaded for an NHL team. To think the floundering last month of the season or the slow start with no Nate were reflective of the talent today is foolish. If they are motivated, healthy, and going full on this is as good as any team, with or without Gusev.

I think top 2 is way overestimating the lineup. We have a great top 6. We have a solid, not great bottom 6 without Gusev.

We have a middle of the road defense top to bottom.

We have a goalie who is mostly good with flashes of greatness. We have a backup goalie the team does not value to play the way we need him to in order to succeed.

 

[Pirate Deadpool]

No GM is a God, many fans don't even know who the GM is. You read too much into this. He's made mistakes here and of course in Washington, but I think he gets the big picture stuff right more often than not. He won't say it but the thing I think he doesn't get enough credit for is realizing the nature of team structure evolves and he hit it right. Part of that was just accepting the limitations of being an expansion team, but I think some big picture themes are playing out and VGK are doing well on them. For one, I think the gap between the top 5 D and say the 5th best D on most teams is nowhere near as great as it used to be. Wasn't that long ago you would use your 3rd pair D 5-7 minutes a game. You really had to, an elite D man could do things 5th and 6th D men could not do like carry the puck or make good passes in the offensive zone. Now you get a guy like Colin Miller who's thought of as an average at best D man with some deficiencies by us, but he would have been a 1st pairing player not that long ago. The lower end D is catching up and I think the GMs kind of figured out relying on a bunch of guys would work. I think that's what drove the Holden decision, but they just didn't see he wasn't quite a philosophical fit with the quick exits and joining the rush style.

I think they also saw how much you build around your center depth and how having two-way players is preferrable to guys like Neal and Perron who regularly can get undressed in their own end because they aren't paying attention to the details. Those kind of details seem to drive the decisions. They certainly don't get them all right and every team tends to overpay their own guys to some degree. I'm sure if he knew Gusev was coming before last season's signing period things might have played out differently, but that was a very uncertain turn of events and hard to fault a guy for not planning on having a few million dollars around when he didn't expect to need them. `

Lots of people I know talk about McPhee and how he's God. Too many of them read sinbin and Ken always talks about McPhee and Foley. I called all of it last year. How Fleury, Reaves, and Holden were overpaid and not counting every million in cap would end up hurting this team. And how not trading for ROR (traded for peanuts) over signing Stastny (good player but not in his prime like ROR) was a mistake and ROR just showed the world that he's one of the best two way centers.

And if he trades Gusev, he'll regret it more than trading for Erat.

Maybe I work with too many people that read sinbin because Ken worships McPhee and Foley way too much. But lately they have been coming around and can't believe that I called everything right last summer.