Series Talk: WCQF: Winnipeg Jets Vs. Colorado Avalanche (COL lead 3-1)

[PocketNines]

Winnipeg has a tough goalie situation. They have to score 7 to win due to the issue in net. It's so weird because I always hear how this guy is the best? I never got that but, sure, he's the best

 

[S E P H]

If the Jets stand any kind of chance they need to stay out of the box. 10 minutes in penalties by the halfway point of the 3rd is a recipe for disaster against the Avs. Refs need to stop calling the ticky tacky shit if it's not going to go both ways. Obviously puck over glass and high sticking should be called every time.

The calls were legit though; a straight-up trip from the faceoff and a double-minor high sticking. Now I don't know if they missed anything major against the Avs, but nobody can complain that the Jets calls were "ticky-tacky" because they were not.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Based on the regular season between the two teams, we should have been confident. But we also should have been able to raise our game, and we haven’t.

Just some advice; don’t ever take too much from regular season results when you’re talking about a recent Stanley Cup champion.

These teams have gone through the rigors and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. Regular seasons aren’t the measuring stick for teams like the Avs and they don’t get worried about losing some relatively meaningless games.

 

[Eltuna]

It's not like either of the Avs or Jets goalie are inspiring confidence. They can play a solid shut down game. Have just as good of a transition from the backend as the Avs while playing better shutdown than the Jets.

They have guys that can make you pay in transition like the Avs and enough firepower to make you pay on the PP.

Lets not pretend like either of the Jets or Avs have been stalwarts defensively and Vegas is the kind of team where one mistake and it's in the back of your net. They don't need a high volume of shots to make you pay. They can play a heavy and fast game and pick their spots.

Both teams will get destroyed in the next round if they keep playing like they have. It's not even going to be particularly close.

This is Vegas' final form and we are just now seeing it this playoffs and with each game they will continue to get better.

Vegas offence has only generated 45 all purpose scoring chances in 2 games so they only average 22.5 per game. The wins and goaltending are masking their expected performance against Dallas, they are very lucky it is 2-0.

Avs for reference have carved the Jets defence for 37 scoring chances per game and the Jets had a pretty decent defence this year.

If the Avs offence keeps playing this way they will be a really tough out for anyone and they could even get Drouin/Landeskog back, Carolina is the only team generating more chances than the Avs are

 

[JKG33]

The play of Hellebuyck in this series is a real concern for Jets fans. 16 goals against in 3 games? Yikes. Jets have no chance if he lets in 5 goals a game.

But I was told Hellebuyck is some amazing playoff goalie.

Gunna be some crow served if he doesn't turn it around this series

If you told me the Avs were going average 5 goals past Helly I’d say you’re crazy.

I know the Avs are a potent offence, but that’s crazy for this year’s likely Vezina winner.

I wouldn't.

Hellebuyck is a playoff fraud and the Avs have at least 3 players better than anyone on the Jets. I've never been an Avs fan but this isn't all that surprising

 

[Wasted Talent]

At least Helleybuck is trending upwards, he should be hitting .876 SV% by game 7.

 

[JKG33]

People thinking it was gonna be a cakewalk for the jets looking quite stupid right now.

You love to see it

 

[josra33]

The calls were legit though; a straight-up trip from the faceoff and a double-minor high sticking. Now I don't know if they missed anything major against the Avs, but nobody can complain that the Jets calls were "ticky-tacky" because they were not.

Don’t forget the delay of game

Helly vs Georgiev has to be the most lopsided goalie matchup of the playoffs, no? I still see Colorado winning this in 7.

Man you’re right… it has been lopsided… but not in the way you’re thinking.

 

[JKG33]

I've never understood why everyone was so enamored with the Jets. Sure they're a well coached team, had a good regular season and beat who they were supposed to beat. But this team just isn't inspiring.

Scheifele is not nearly good enough offensively to justify how bad he is defensively (and what a whiny bitch he is). None of their other top 6 forwards are anything special either. Good players for sure, but I don't look at any of Connor, Ehlers, Toffoli, Monahan, Vilardi and think yup that's a guy about to win a series for me. Lowry is a fantastic matchup 3C, he's the only guy on the Jets I look at as a playoff warrior.

On D Morrissey is great but he's not what you think of when you think all situation shut down guy. And everyone else at their position on the depth chart is average at best.

A good team sure, but certainly not a contender. Sure they could have a playoff run like Montreal did during the covid cup if Hellebuyck took them there. But at this point comparing playoff Hellebuyck to Price is a pretty big slap in the face to Price.

 

[josra33]

Ok.
Let’s talk about when the Jets beat them 6-2 earlier this year. Still too recent? Ok how about when the Jets beat them 4-2 before that.

How’s that regular season treating them now?

 

[Daximus]

Logan Thompson isn’t a guy that’s likely to Tim Thomas his way through a playoffs either. Vegas might look invincible when they're getting .920 goaltending, but most teams do. Your tactics tend not to look as brilliant when you get an .867.

Yes, they're very dangerous, but chaotic pinball/volume hockey is pretty dangerous too. How many goals last night were just, fling it at the net and see what happens?

Thompson isn't even really being challenged all that much from what I've seen. Vegas just does a good job of keeping most stuff to the outside. Of course that's just from what I've seen the stats might bear out something different.

The calls were legit though; a straight-up trip from the faceoff and a double-minor high sticking. Now I don't know if they missed anything major against the Avs, but nobody can complain that the Jets calls were "ticky-tacky" because they were not.

There was a trip right before the high stick. A call on Scheif that probably should have made it a 5 on 3. A pretty blatant interference on Pionk that went uncalled (and when I say blatant I mean like well beyond the slowing guys down on entry) among others. The ticky tacky shit was definitely going one way last night once the Jets were up.

 

[Daximus]

Vegas offence has only generated 45 all purpose scoring chances in 2 games so they only average 22.5 per game. The wins and goaltending are masking their expected performance against Dallas, they are very lucky it is 2-0.

Avs for reference have carved the Jets defence for 37 scoring chances per game and the Jets had a pretty decent defence this year.

If the Avs offence keeps playing this way they will be a really tough out for anyone and they could even get Drouin/Landeskog back, Carolina is the only team generating more chances than the Avs are

The Jets had a great defence this year but have been abysmal in this series. They so far are looking a lot more like they did in their losing skid than during their winning run to end the season. It's a tale of two teams.

I wouldn't expect you can do to Vegas what you are doing to us. Night and day difference between the two teams right now.

I've never understood why everyone was so enamored with the Jets. Sure they're a well coached team, had a good regular season and beat who they were supposed to beat. But this team just isn't inspiring.

Scheifele is not nearly good enough offensively to justify how bad he is defensively (and what a whiny bitch he is). None of their other top 6 forwards are anything special either. Good players for sure, but I don't look at any of Connor, Ehlers, Toffoli, Monahan, Vilardi and think yup that's a guy about to win a series for me. Lowry is a fantastic matchup 3C, he's the only guy on the Jets I look at as a playoff warrior.

On D Morrissey is great but he's not what you think of when you think all situation shut down guy. And everyone else at their position on the depth chart is average at best.

A good team sure, but certainly not a contender. Sure they could have a playoff run like Montreal did during the covid cup if Hellebuyck took them there. But at this point comparing playoff Hellebuyck to Price is a pretty big slap in the face to Price.

When has anyone compared playoff Hellebuyck to playoff Price? I'd like to see the receipts on that one.

 

[Freaky Styley]

But I was told Hellebuyck is some amazing playoff goalie.

Gunna be some crow served if he doesn't turn it around this series


I wouldn't.

Hellebuyck is a playoff fraud and the Avs have at least 3 players better than anyone on the Jets. I've never been an Avs fan but this isn't all that surprising

I still don't get this perspective. Hellebuyck stood on his head through 2 periods last night before the Avs PP went to work, and while he hasn't stolen any games yet he's played well enough for the Jets to win.

Maybe this is just coming from an Avs fan that forgets what reliable goaltending looks like, but Hellebuyck certainly hasn't been the issue.

Jets have had pretty good defensive metrics during the season (top 10-15 in most cats) but they are middle of the pack in high danger chances against/60 and 2nd in high danger save %/60 during the regular season according to natural stat trick

Which basically tells me they are a decent defensive team that gets bailed out by a Vezina goalie. This seems to be playing out except that when you play the highest scoring team in the league multiple times in a row these trends cannot be sustained.

 

[JKG33]

The Jets had a great defence this year but have been abysmal in this series. They so far are looking a lot more like they did in their losing skid than during their winning run to end the season. It's a tale of two teams.

I wouldn't expect you can do to Vegas what you are doing to us. Night and day difference between the two teams right now.



When has anyone compared playoff Hellebuyck to playoff Price? I'd like to see the receipts on that one.

That's not what I meant at all. I mean the Jets could only go on a run if Hellebuyck took them there. But it would take a Price level performance to get them there, which I don't think Hellebuyck is capable of

 

[Daximus]

That's not what I meant at all. I mean the Jets could only go on a run if Hellebuyck took them there. But it would take a Price level performance to get them there, which I don't think Hellebuyck is capable of

I thought he was great through 2 periods yesterday. When you start the first half of the 3rd period with 10 minutes in penalties against the Avs it's tough sledding.

There are nearly 18 other players on the ice that have had much worse showings than Helle in this series. Much much worse.

Ehlers has been a complete no show, putting on his best Marner impression. Toffoli and Monahan have been complete non-factors. Everyone on the backend outside of Morrissey has been nearly useless. Scheif and the rest of the top line have been dreadful outside of the offensive zone and really not even great there. The only forward that you can really say has been great is Lowry who basically kept them in game 1 all by himself.

 

[JKG33]

I still don't get this perspective. Hellebuyck stood on his head through 2 periods last night before the Avs PP went to work, and while he hasn't stolen any games yet he's played well enough for the Jets to win.

Maybe this is just coming from an Avs fan that forgets what reliable goaltending looks like, but Hellebuyck certainly hasn't been the issue.

Jets have had pretty good defensive metrics during the season (top 10-15 in most cats) but they are middle of the pack in high danger chances against/60 and 2nd in high danger save %/60 during the regular season according to natural stat trick

Which basically tells me they are a decent defensive team that gets bailed out by a Vezina goalie. This seems to be playing out except that when you play the highest scoring team in the league multiple times in a row these trends cannot be sustained.

My buddy has partial season tickets and recently broke up with his GF, so I've been to more Jets games this season than I'd ever care to.

The Jets made Brossoit look like a serviceable starter when he was in net. I know obviously Hellebuyck got the harder matchups and starters workload but there was not nearly a big enough gap between the two to say that they were bailed out by Helle.

To me they're the definition of a team built to look good in the regular season but not good enough to win in the playoffs unless they get an extremely favorable matchup (like EDM's been getting)

 

[Ararana]

Clearly not. Avs were on the powerplay for the ENTIRE third period. Literally the whole period. If it wasn't for Hellebuyck, the score would have been much worse lol.

 

[lionsDen]

Vegas offence has only generated 45 all purpose scoring chances in 2 games so they only average 22.5 per game. The wins and goaltending are masking their expected performance against Dallas, they are very lucky it is 2-0.

Avs for reference have carved the Jets defence for 37 scoring chances per game and the Jets had a pretty decent defence this year.

If the Avs offence keeps playing this way they will be a really tough out for anyone and they could even get Drouin/Landeskog back, Carolina is the only team generating more chances than the Avs are

It’s been really really quiet since the playoffs about landy I have a feeling it’ll be late if at all if he comes back

 

[JKG33]

I thought he was great through 2 periods yesterday. When you start the first half of the 3rd period with 10 minutes in penalties against the Avs it's tough sledding.

There are nearly 18 other players on the ice that have had much worse showings than Helle in this series. Much much worse.

Ehlers has been a complete no show. Toffoli and Monahan have been complete non-factors. Everyone on the backend outside of Morrissey has been nearly useless. Scheif and the rest of the top line have been dreadful outside of the offensive zone and really not even great there. The only forward that you can really say has been great is Lowry who basically kept them in game 1 all by himself.

The problem is those were about the only 2 periods where he was great all series. I'd expect a lot better than 2 outta 9 periods for a guy who's a media darling and just got signed to a monster extension.

The Avs are clearly in his head. In the 3rd period his body language and positioning were completely out the window.

The rest of your post is 100% spot on and similar to what I said a few posts up. Lowry is really the only playoff guy they've got

 

[Eltuna]

It’s been really really quiet since the playoffs about Kandy I have a feeling it’ll be late if at all if he comes back

That is likely but you never know, a 50% Landeskog would still be a big boost in the second or third round

 

[Daximus]

My buddy has partial season tickets and recently broke up with his GF, so I've been to more Jets games this season than I'd ever care to.

The Jets made Brossoit look like a serviceable starter when he was in net. I know obviously Hellebuyck got the harder matchups and starters workload but there was not nearly a big enough gap between the two to say that they were bailed out by Helle.

To me they're the definition of a team built to look good in the regular season but not good enough to win in the playoffs unless they get an extremely favorable matchup (like EDM's been getting)

Brossoit is a solid backup and always has been with us even during his first stretch when we were giving up more shots than anyone else in the league. He's actually a really solid goalie and should get the credit for playing as well as he has.

 

[Daximus]

The problem is those were about the only 2 periods where he was great all series. I'd expect a lot better than 2 outta 9 periods for a guy who's a media darling and just got signed to a monster extension.

The Avs are clearly in his head. In the 3rd period his body language and positioning were completely out the window.

The rest of your post is 100% spot on and similar to what I said a few posts up. Lowry is really the only playoff guy they've got

The Avs just clearly have another gear. They were absolute garbage ass against us all season. Then all the sudden MacK and Makar decide to wakeup in the playoffs and we can't answer them. The Avs have a shit load of firepower, perhaps more than any other team that doesn't have McDavid.

He's definitely given up some uncharacteristic goals so far but the Avs are averaging nearly 40 shots a game so far when they didn't have a single game over 35 against us all season.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I still don't get this perspective. Hellebuyck stood on his head through 2 periods last night before the Avs PP went to work, and while he hasn't stolen any games yet he's played well enough for the Jets to win.

Maybe this is just coming from an Avs fan that forgets what reliable goaltending looks like, but Hellebuyck certainly hasn't been the issue.

Jets have had pretty good defensive metrics during the season (top 10-15 in most cats) but they are middle of the pack in high danger chances against/60 and 2nd in high danger save %/60 during the regular season according to natural stat trick

Which basically tells me they are a decent defensive team that gets bailed out by a Vezina goalie. This seems to be playing out except that when you play the highest scoring team in the league multiple times in a row these trends cannot be sustained.

At least one person has a reasonable take. I'm far from an Avs fan, but full marks to them bringing the heat.

 

[JKG33]

The Avs just clearly have another gear. They were absolute garbage ass against us all season. Then all the sudden MacK and Makar decide to wakeup in the playoffs and we can't answer them. The Avs have a shit load of firepower, perhaps more than any other team that doesn't have McDavid.

He's definitely given up some uncharacteristic goals so far but the Avs are averaging nearly 40 shots a game so far when they didn't have a single game over 35 against us all season.

I mean yea, that's the difference between a contender and a pretender. The Avs also loaded up their depth at the deadline, and have some scratches that could be 3rd/4th liners on other teams.

As for Hellebuyck.. again you're not wrong. But I'd expect far better than what he's done relative to the hype he got this season. A supposed world beater runaway Vezina winner should be doing better than this even if it is vs a wagon of a team. Especially when the majority of people were picking the Jets to win

 

[Playoffsareoverrated]

When MacKinnon will finally show up?