Series Talk: WCF: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers (EDM Leads 3-2)

[SeanAveryTheGreatOne]

Who y'all got?!
​

Dallas Stars (1C) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2P)​

Western Conference Final

Game 1: Oilers at Stars -- May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 2: Oilers at Stars -- May 25, 8 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 3: Stars at Oilers -- May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 4: Stars at Oilers -- May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ Game 5: Oilers at Stars -- May 31, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 6: Stars at Oilers -- June 2, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 7: Oilers at Stars -- June 4, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ if necessary ​

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[Nikki Potnick]

Prediction: Dallas loses game 1, because they have in every series since the 2020 finals. Oilers fans start actually thinking they'll win the series (because right now it's all false confidence). Then Dallas goes on to win the next 4.

Does anyone actually think that the Oilers have looked good these playoffs? I've yet to see a game of theirs where I thought, "this is a good team". Obviously they have some high end talent, but this isn't basketball where those players alone can win championships, depth does. Add on the fact that defense wins championships, and Oilers don't have that or goaltending. The ONLY thing Dallas can be slightly concerned about is special teams. At worst, Dallas is 6.

This is no disrespect towards the Oilers, Dallas is just that good this year.

 

[McSuper]

Oilers in 4

Dallas doesn't stand a chance. If they're super lucky they might steal away 1 win, but seems extremely unlikely

As an Oiler fan I don't come on here much during the playoffs because of dumb comments like this. No chance in hell the Oilers beat Dallas in 4 games. Oilers still need a goalie and a Ekholm like RD.

I like the Oilers to win as an Oiler fan but being logical I expect Dallas to win in 6 games.

 

[Ratsreign]

Ah yes, the invincible Dallas Stars who were an overtime goal away from being down 3-0 to the #8 seed in the opening round. People really out here acting like they’re the 90s Red Wings and Avalanche, or even their own 1999 and 2000 iteration. Oettinger is damn good, but he’s no Belfour and we’re what…a mere month out from the completion of a regular season where his own fans complained how ordinary he was? Give me a break with these “sweep” and “going to be so easy” comments. Dallas is far more beatable than many seem to believe. Honestly, McDavid and Draisaitl are probably putting up 10-15 points this series.

You say “the 8th seed” as if that team was some scrub level, lucky to be in the playoffs team, instead of the defending Cup champions.
It’s even more disingenuous than people trying to burn Boston last year for losing to “an 8th seed”.

Having said that, I don’t think they’ll walk all over the Oilers. But I think Dallas will prevail. Would like to see Edmonton pull off the victory, but idk if they can do it.

 

[Maria Sharapova]

Oilers made it out of the ahl+vegas division. Because vegas got moved to other bracket. This is going to go a lot like Avs oilers a few years back

 

[King Woodballs]

Dallas is legit. Edmonton just scraped by the Canucks….
I have a feeling the Stars are rolling over the Oilers

 

[ijuka]

It's almost as if quality of opponent matters. Crazy thought I know!

GA of VGK: 245
GA of COL: 254
GA of LAK: 215
GA of VAN: 223

Total GA VGK+COL: 499
Total GA LAK+VAN: 438


You need to make quite the adjustments to equate that to it being twice as easy to score vs LAK and VAN than vs VGK and COL. Whatever those adjustments might be, they won't be statistical. They will be your subjective guesswork and hypotheses.

As for Silovs and Demko. Reg, Demko had 22 goals saved above expected after 51 games. Playoffs, Silovs had 0.2 goals saved below expected after 10 games.

So let's scale that to 50 games, so Demko would prevent around 3 goals from Oilers extra in comparison to Silovs.

The numbers still won't be even close. This, in fact, isn't even enough to adjust for the difference in GA between VGK+COL vs LAK+VAN.

 

[Chet Manley]

The voter list for Dallas in 4 is just full of HF all-stars. Mostly sour Leafs and Canucks fans... your teams don't deserve better with the karma you put out.

 

[Nikki Potnick]

I got an sneak peak of Benn's speech to the boys about the Oilers.

 

[Dr Pepper]

As an Oiler fan I don't come on here much during the playoffs because of dumb comments like this. No chance in hell the Oilers beat Dallas in 4 games. Oilers still need a goalie and a Ekholm like RD.

I like the Oilers to win as an Oiler fan but being logical I expect Dallas to win in 6 games.

I'd take that guy's posts with a grain of salt, he's been doing it all playoffs.

Not sure why, either.

 

[Nikki Potnick]

GA of VGK: 245
GA of COL: 254
GA of LAK: 215
GA of VAN: 223

Total GA VGK+COL: 499
Total GA LAK+VAN: 438


You need to make quite the adjustments to equate that to it being twice as easy to score vs LAK and VAN than vs VGK and COL. Whatever those adjustments might be, they won't be statistical. They will be your subjective guesswork and hypotheses.

Oh you're switching to regular season stats now?

GF Dallas: 298
GF Oilers: 294

So by you're own logic, Dallas is better. Gotcha!

And Dallas had 9 more points in the regular season, so they got this no problem, based on your regular season logic.

 

[Pucklington]

Oilers made it out of the ahl+vegas division. Because vegas got moved to other bracket. This is going to go a lot like Avs oilers a few years back

SO.... What your saying is Vegas is worse then an AHL team?

I guess Dallas beat an ECHL team and Colorado?

 

[Ratsreign]

Stars in 5-6. Voted 5.

But if Edmonton manages to get to the final they will face the same opposition nationwide that we did in 2011. Just my prediction.

If they meet FL, the GTA and their media will be all aboard the Oiler train

 

[Maria Sharapova]

I'd take that guy's posts with a grain of salt, he's been doing it all playoffs.

Not sure why, either.

I said the same thing before the Avs series too watch me be right again. I had an army of oilers fans ready to quote me that time too none ever did though

 

[flying squirrel]

Good luck to both fan-bases! Hoping for a hard fought, healthy, players/coaches deciding outcomes, and close WCF series that goes at least 6 or 7 games. Both Stars & Oilers are very "Cup" worthy, we'll probably be pulling for whoever wins this series during SCF's.

Again, good luck and hope both fan-bases enjoy awesome ride deep playoff provide.

 

[Maria Sharapova]

SO.... What your saying is Vegas is worse then an AHL team?

I guess Dallas beat an ECHL team and Colorado?

Vegas is nhl caliber hence they are a cut above the Mickey Mouse division thought it was obvious

 

[Frank Drebin]

Struggling to give Edmonton a game.

Dallas in 4.

Dallas had to go through Vegas and Colorado. Edmonton had to go through LA and a Demko and later Boeser-less Vancouver.

Love ya man. Hope you're doing alright through all of this.

 

[Satan]

good morning to all my fans in EDMONTON

 

[Frank Drebin]

Knights - 98 points - Elite
Kings - 99 points - Trash

Avalanche - 107 points - Elite
Canucks - 109 points - Trash

At least the games are early so by the time I'm done crying I can still get a good nights rest.

 

[North Cole]

Hoping this is a long series, would like to win a game in the 3rd round this time.

Barely remember the annual shit kicking by the stars from 20 years ago, thankfully. Should be a good one, Oilers will have to bring it for 60 minutes now.

Outside of wanting to see McDrai win a cup, I'd like to get to the SCF just see these sad Flamer fans join a 4th bandwagon. Guess Vancouver learned the hardway not to take the scraps of that team that got smoked in 5.

 

[Thomas Tatar]

Any team with Mackinnon, Rantanen and Makar is always a threat

Honest question. I keep seeing Dallas fans with this ‘we deserve it’ slogan. I assume it is the Stanley Cup that fans feel they deserve. Where does this come from? And why do Dallas fans feel their team or their fans deserve a Cup?

 

[Dr Pepper]

If they meet FL, the GTA and their media will be all aboard the Oiler train

If Edmonton gets by Dallas (and that's a pretty big "if"), yes, TSN and Sportsnet will go in very heavily on the Oilers, the whole "bring the Cup home" trash that we see every year. It's probably already started, actually......would be interested in seeing how many talking heads have picked the Oilers in this WCF matchup.

But going back to your comment on the GTA......I wouldn't be so sure about the fans around here being eager to jump on the Oilers bandwagon.

 

[SaltNPeca]

4 really quality and dangerous teams & a lot of puck still to be played!

NHL Playoff Odds
Team	Make 3rd Round	Make Final	Win Cup
Edmonton Oilers EDM	100%​	57%​	32.50%​
New York Rangers NYR	100%​	56.20%​	27.20%​
Dallas Stars DAL	100%​	43%​	22.10%​
Florida Panthers FLA	100%​	43.80%​	18.20%​

source: NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

 

[BLNY]

I see Dallas in 5/6 is leading the way at the time of my post. I was hedging between the two. Ended up on 6. I think they're too deep, too well structured, and arguably have the best goalie left in the playoffs.

 

[Coffey]

good morning to all my fans in EDMONTON

 

[Dr Pepper]

Honest question. I keep seeing Dallas fans with this ‘we deserve it’ slogan. I assume it is the Stanley Cup that fans feel they deserve. Where does this come from? And why do Dallas fans feel their team or their fans deserve a Cup?

A couple Stars fans have been repeating it for shits and giggles, mostly. Gets a rise out of some rival fans, but we're under no misconception that Dallas is really "owed" anything.