CanesFanBudMan
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As a normal person I don’t understand goalies and their voodoo or development so I will not have an opinion on this.
Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options
- Thread starter emptyNedder
- Start date
This seems like such a no brainer that I'm going to be pissed if we don't fix our goaltending in trade or FA...then draft a F with Askarov still on the board. (or a LHD, as unlikely as that is.)
Canes
Registered User
The thing is very few professionals that actually get paid to do this are any good at predicting their development either. You just have no clue how a goalie will do until they play in the NHL for a decent sample size. You can arguably say this for any position but it's especially true for goalies. It also doesn't really help that there's not much professional icetime to spread around for all of them except for the very top performers, most of which won't be anything more than average at the NHL level if they get there at all.
It took Shestyorkin and Sorokin 6 years to come over so even if we draft Askarov it could be a long time before he actually does anything here. The goalies that play for Moscow teams aren't in any rush to ride the busses in the AHL. Maybe he would come over in 2 years like Samsonov did for the Caps but I wouldn't hold my breath for Askarov to do the same unless he was basically guaranteed a NHL spot which is not how our front office works.
BB88
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- Jan 19, 2015
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Outside the top10 it’s tough to land franchise prospects.
Askarov is one and fits the new core perfectly.
I feel after the 1st pick he’s the most valuable pick
Canes
Registered User
I understand the immense potential he has but he's still 1) a goalie and 2) a Russian playing in Russia that many similar players in his situation are reluctant to leave. He could quite literally not come over until guys like Aho, TT, Slavin and Pesce are in the final years of their current deals or even gone to another team.
I would still be excited to have him in the pipeline if he falls to us and is our pick but people need to temper their expectations a bit.
BB88
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I understand the concerns but I see more positives and negatives than with Aho, Slavin, Svec franchise players Carolina being able to risk it and go for the biggest potential guy out there.
Outside the top10 it’s hard to find top end talent, and talent that would make an real impact in the next 2-3 years.
I understand goalies are the biggest ???? out there but Askarov is playing against men in the 2nd best league in the World and Rus is at the top o goaltending development right now.
Vasi 2.0 behind this team would be amazing
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CanesFanBudMan
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WreckingCrew
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- Feb 4, 2015
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Anyone know anything about G Vsevolod Skotnikov? He's virtually unranked (#223 by Future Considerations), but the dude's got a pretty legit VHL/MHL stat line and had a .952 in his only KHL game this year so far (stopped 20 of 21). He is "small" though at 6'0"
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
I think we should draft a B-level forward, and look for a low-priced UFA goalie who has put up good numbers as a backup.
If it doesn't work, we can just keep repeating it every year until it does.
If it doesn't work, we can just keep repeating it every year until it does.
Canes
Registered User
1. Trade for/sign the modern version of Martin Gerber
2. Lockout
3. Promote rookie goalie to backup
4. ????
5. Profit
DaveG
Noted Jerk
There's a couple small guys that have the potential to be there late. He'd make the list along with Levi (no relation... I think)
SvechneJerk
Christ is King
Vagrant
The Czech Condor
i have a couple feelings on this askarov business and the first one is more important than the second. first of all, he's not going to be there. he's about as good of a chance as i have seen since carey price as the consensus first goaltender that was so far and away from everyone else to the point that you couldn't really guess if a team has him at 3rd or 14th on their boards. i don't recall if there have been any top 10 goalies drafted since price. if people think they're looking at a slam dunk franchise starter it's going to be hard to talk them off that once the top 3 or 4 "locks" are taken. the other unique thing about him is that he's putting tape out in a time when everyone else's stock is staying pretty static. not only is he putting tape out, he's raising his profile considerably for it.
BB88
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I think why he could be there at 13 but not much after than is the teams in front of you, 8-12 need high end F prospects, and have promising goalie prospects.
12th overall Florida Knight, similar to Askarov,
11th overall Nashville, really needs high end offensive prospects and has Saros ready to take over(stil bit of a risk to go for Askarov),
Jets, desperate for #2C/defense, Helle in his early prime 10th overall.
Minnesota 9th overall, the most desperate for C's from all the teams in the league, they really have zero at C with saying goodbye to Staal& Koivu. Also have a promising goalie prospect in Kahkonen
Vagrant
The Czech Condor
i think if he makes it that far down the board, someone will have jumped us to take him. i think it's getting pretty serious that he's flirting with top 10 because of the paranoia factor associated with what was mentioned earlier about it only taking one team that's wild about him in the 5th to 8th range to take him. if it starts to get where he's floating around at 11th or something it's going to be fair game. his stock seemed to be peaking towards the end of the season and the fact that he's able to play and not only hold serve, but show some improvements just puts him in front of so many more eyeballs.
and there's also the factor that teams are really dumb sometimes and things like both finals goalies being russian without semantics could cause somebody to get those old school gut vibes.
BB88
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When teams need high end talent as bad as those teams can they really trade down?
Draft and the top is your best bet trying to address C issues
Vagrant
The Czech Condor
if there's any year to do it, this is the one. it's shockingly bereft of sure things in my opinion. the mandatory picks end after 3rd overall. 4th-10th can do whatever they want within reason. probably 5th overall if you consider drysdale as the best defense available a must at 4th overall but he seems more like a charlie mcavoy than a cale makar. i think he goes on riser watch at 5th with ottawa and 9th to minnesota could be a thing if teams are locked in. the problem with addressing center issues is there have to be centers available that you like better and that might be a challenge with what appears to be one of the best bets at the position in years. plus, even teams with young goalies already in say the 24-28 range could conceivably be on the back 9 by the time an 18 year old goalie is available to help you. especially since there's probably no chance you get him to north america before he's 22 or 23. i don't know if we have that kind of time. our need seems more immediate, but at 13th that proposition becomes more enticing just as it does to teams slightly above it. like a draft and stash player in the nba he's just over there in russia doing his thing waiting for time to pass until it would be acceptable to risk bringing him in. there's a lot of variables, but i think he goes higher. not saying it's right or wrong.
You are forgetting about Detroit and Jersey. As @Vagrant is saying, after the 3rd pick, he could/should be anyone's BPA at that point. And there are several franchises that have more time to wait out a goalie with the "Russian factor" than we do realistically based on their "window". But, again as @Vagrant said, our decision will be easy....he won't be there.
Going back to Hartford, I've suffered it feels like 30 years of this plan.
We need to not be cute. If the goalie is there, take him. Hell, I know I'm alone on this...I'd overpay to move up for Askarov.
We don't really have an unaddressed C issue. Staal was the 2C, he faltered. We moved a lot of assets to trade for Tro to fill that role and hasn't even been here long enough to show if he fills the role. Necas projects to a top-6 C role by most accounts...and if he sticks at the wing, we still have Suzuki, Rees, Drury in the system.
How many times over do we need to solve the same problem while neglecting our other needs?
SvechneJerk
Christ is King
It's highly doubtful that anyone we select at 13 is going to be on the roster for probably 2 years - are we all in agreement on this?
Serious question (*and I know he's an outlier, so don't flame me for it*) - where was this level of talk for Carter Hart in his draft year & who knew he'd be
the starter D+2 & doing as well as he has? I KNOW there are variables with Askarov: goalies are voodoo, Russian factor, etc..., but isn't this a calculated
risk you take? Doesn't he fit the bill of the Borg's "swing-for-the-fences" MO?
I'll hang up & listen.
EDIT: IF he's still there at 13.
Serious question (*and I know he's an outlier, so don't flame me for it*) - where was this level of talk for Carter Hart in his draft year & who knew he'd be
the starter D+2 & doing as well as he has? I KNOW there are variables with Askarov: goalies are voodoo, Russian factor, etc..., but isn't this a calculated
risk you take? Doesn't he fit the bill of the Borg's "swing-for-the-fences" MO?
I'll hang up & listen.
EDIT: IF he's still there at 13.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Jersey I don't see because they have Blackwood. He's not quite Hart level for the young goalies but he's probably the #2 or 3 young goalie in the league right now. I don't see them as a serious threat to take Askarov
Detroit is the wildcard since they need literally everything. Including a goalie. I think they're just high enough in the draft that a top tier skater should be there though.
bleedgreen
Registered User
I’d love to get him but agree with the consensus he isn’t going to be there. He wasn’t going to be there a few months ago imo, and obviously his recent success is only going to make him rise higher.
No team ahead of us should be considering moving down, I think this requires notable overpayment to be in the game. My biggest problem with all of it is this kid is likely five years away from being who he’s going to be at all.
This core could conceivably be past its prime before he’s even ready to be a starter, honestly we’re most likely to be at least a different team by the time he is. This doesn’t solve our goalie issue at all between now and then and we are on our prime now. That’s not a reason to not draft him but it still leaves the goalie issue on the table for a few years.
We still may still need to overpay tomorrow fix the issue until he arrives. I think the only reason we’re wringing our hands here is because before his recent play he “seemed” to be a guy who only has to fall a spot or two and seemed in reach.
I don’t think he’s ever been in reach and it’ll be difficult to move up enough to get him over the others that want him at least as much as we do that are ahead of us.
No team ahead of us should be considering moving down, I think this requires notable overpayment to be in the game. My biggest problem with all of it is this kid is likely five years away from being who he’s going to be at all.
This core could conceivably be past its prime before he’s even ready to be a starter, honestly we’re most likely to be at least a different team by the time he is. This doesn’t solve our goalie issue at all between now and then and we are on our prime now. That’s not a reason to not draft him but it still leaves the goalie issue on the table for a few years.
We still may still need to overpay tomorrow fix the issue until he arrives. I think the only reason we’re wringing our hands here is because before his recent play he “seemed” to be a guy who only has to fall a spot or two and seemed in reach.
I don’t think he’s ever been in reach and it’ll be difficult to move up enough to get him over the others that want him at least as much as we do that are ahead of us.
GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
If a team doesn’t trade up and jump the line ahead of us then the teams that I see a potential candidates to take Askarov are the following...
Ottawa @5 - They have the 3rd pick as well and will surely be taking a forward there. Is 5 too early to take a goalie though? They need help everywhere so they should be going BPA. If they view Askarov as that then he’s gone. If not then he keeps moving down the line.
Buffalo @ 8 - Buffalo have invested into their forwards but need high end talent at D and in net. They are obviously trying to compete now with their recent moves as to not piss off King Eichel and waste his prime. They do need a goalie though so maybe they grab him at 8 or maybe they overpay for Holtby or something like that in FA.
Nashville @ 11 - Nashville needs high end forward talent and while this draft is deep there is a drop off after the first few heavy hitters. They have Saros tabbed as the next starter in net but are they confident? Askarov could go there to keep the goalie pipe line going. They had a very good franchise goalie in Rinne for a very long time so maybe that is something that they value having.
I don’t see Detroit, NJ, or Minny as strong options.
Detroit @ 4 is just like Ottawa in that they need everything, goalie included but at that slot they should be guaranteed a very good forward or dman which they desperately need. However Detroit did go off the bird last year so you never know.
NJ @ 7 - They should be taking BPA and after trading Hall, having Palmieri going into UFA they need forward talent. Their D is weak as well but this is a strong offseason to grab some impact D in trade or via UFA. Also Blackwood is good and young so I don’t see the need to spend a high pick on a goalie.
Minny @ 9 - Given what Guerin just did this week, if they don’t draft a C then I give up. They have said they need to make a goalie move but that sounds like something more immediate and they will be in on UFA or someone via trade. They just have no centers. Lundell seems like a forgone conclusion there.
All the other teams ahead of us I just don’t see it. If Askarov is there then I think you have to take him. He might not be ready for 2 years but goalies like him don’t come around often and having stability in net can extend your window another 5-10 years potentially it all works out right.
Ottawa @5 - They have the 3rd pick as well and will surely be taking a forward there. Is 5 too early to take a goalie though? They need help everywhere so they should be going BPA. If they view Askarov as that then he’s gone. If not then he keeps moving down the line.
Buffalo @ 8 - Buffalo have invested into their forwards but need high end talent at D and in net. They are obviously trying to compete now with their recent moves as to not piss off King Eichel and waste his prime. They do need a goalie though so maybe they grab him at 8 or maybe they overpay for Holtby or something like that in FA.
Nashville @ 11 - Nashville needs high end forward talent and while this draft is deep there is a drop off after the first few heavy hitters. They have Saros tabbed as the next starter in net but are they confident? Askarov could go there to keep the goalie pipe line going. They had a very good franchise goalie in Rinne for a very long time so maybe that is something that they value having.
I don’t see Detroit, NJ, or Minny as strong options.
Detroit @ 4 is just like Ottawa in that they need everything, goalie included but at that slot they should be guaranteed a very good forward or dman which they desperately need. However Detroit did go off the bird last year so you never know.
NJ @ 7 - They should be taking BPA and after trading Hall, having Palmieri going into UFA they need forward talent. Their D is weak as well but this is a strong offseason to grab some impact D in trade or via UFA. Also Blackwood is good and young so I don’t see the need to spend a high pick on a goalie.
Minny @ 9 - Given what Guerin just did this week, if they don’t draft a C then I give up. They have said they need to make a goalie move but that sounds like something more immediate and they will be in on UFA or someone via trade. They just have no centers. Lundell seems like a forgone conclusion there.
All the other teams ahead of us I just don’t see it. If Askarov is there then I think you have to take him. He might not be ready for 2 years but goalies like him don’t come around often and having stability in net can extend your window another 5-10 years potentially it all works out right.
One of the main reasons I like the idea of Askarov is because when he is ready in 3-4 years the Canes will be closing up their current window where Aho, Teravainen, Pesce, Skjei, and Slavin will be at the end of their contracts. What better way to convince some of that group to stay on than to say "We have a franchise goalie coming in and you are reaching your prime, let's keep this going".
I am starting to agree that he won't be there when the Canes pick. Some team will fall in love and select him, even as high as Detroit at #4. Yzerman does what he pleases. Which means some other top prospect will fall and that is OK. I see a pretty clear top-13 and think the Canes will pick pretty much whoever falls.
I am starting to agree that he won't be there when the Canes pick. Some team will fall in love and select him, even as high as Detroit at #4. Yzerman does what he pleases. Which means some other top prospect will fall and that is OK. I see a pretty clear top-13 and think the Canes will pick pretty much whoever falls.
