Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by 42 jerks, Oct 3, 2019.

  1. Lempo We were on a pause! Sponsor

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    But don't you want to rub their face to the fact that they want our guy but we don't want their guy.
     
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  2. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    That argument would also apply to Samsonov and Francouz in the AHL last season—doubly so in the playoffs.
    The other point is that the good team/good goalie point is actually chicken/egg. The good Checkers didn't make any difference in 14 games during their Calder Cup season. It is possible that playing in front of Ned makes teams better.

    I am not certain that Ned will succeed in the NHL, but many of the arguments that he won't succeed are not logically consistent.
     
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  3. Joe McGrath Registered User

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    I’d like to rub their faces in it that they can’t have either guy.
     
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  4. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    I have made that point on several occasions. I know why it shouldn't hold true. Would be interested in others' opinions why is apparently is holding true.
     
  5. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    I think the reason that it is holding true is that, contrary to most people's opinions, younger goalies perform better than than older goalies. Also, UFA goalies also get paid a premium which takes resources from the other parts of the team.
     
  6. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    HockeyTV is free the next few days. So I watched the USNTDP 18 v. Boston U game. Reinforced two opinions, created a new one, and changed a few.

    I was a big Berard fan before watching him play an entire game. After watching him against college players, I am even more impressed. He doesn't let his size keep him from engaging and going to the front of the net. He created something almost every time he had the puck on his stick. He was also terrific at disrupting 50/50 plays to create an opportunity for himself or a teammate to gain control. Berard was especially noticeable on the power play where he pressured the defense every time before making a quick pass. After watching him, he is one of three players (along with Seeley and Finley) who I hope the Canes can draft with their late second and two thirds.

    Faber has a lot of potential. He didn't have a good game—two pretty sloppy turnovers—but still showed strong skating and even laid at least two good hits. While not in my top 3, I think he would also be a good use of one of the picks.

    Commesso. Like most, I don't know exactly what makes a good goalie prospect. Still, I saw a lot of McElhinney. He is really calm even when there is a scrum in the crease. Never seemed out of position. Another player I would be good with if the Canes decided to draft a goalie.

    None of Smilinac, Peterson, Slaggert stood out in this game. Maybe using a fourth on any of these three would be ok—though there are other players I would prefer.

    Sanderson would be a great pick if the Canes lose in the play-in and up 14/15. Doubt he will still be available, but he is one defender who would be worth picking up in the first round. The combination of skating, physicality, and vision are really impressive.

    As far as already-drafted players: Farrance was easily the best player on the ice. He seemed able to take the puck pretty much wherever he wanted. His defense was solid, not NHL shutdown level but no major holes. Fensore is both quick and fast. On the power play he can make plays. However, he lost the puck 6 of the 7 times I noticed he was engaged. His size is likely going to mean he won't make the NHL.
     
  7. Unsustainable Bunch of Jerks

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    I think we should draft a Finn
     
  8. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    One of the 7ths for a goalie: Leevi Meriläinen.
    or
    Joona Kiviniemi—good size, apparently a decent skater who slipped off the radar when he moved from CHL back to Finland. Canes should be familiar with him as he played with Tieksola.
     
  9. DaveG Noted Jerk

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  10. Azor Aho Win for Doogie Sponsor

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    I actually agree with pretty much everything you put here. I'm a fan of Berard and Faber, and at the very least recognize that Commesso seems like a good goalie prospect to grab if possible. The other three you listed strike me as somewhat meh, but probably decent enough mid round fodder as you say.

    Sanderson does seem like a pretty good prospect, but I don't see any scenario where he'll matter to us.
     
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  11. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    Why is it that if the season resumes there is the chance the Canes (and Pens and Oilers and etc) have the chance to miss the playoffs even though they are in by points percentage, but if the season gets canceled those teams aren’t involved in the draft lottery? I think they need to open up the lottery to the sixteen teams that are in the playin games or get rid of the playin games.
     
  12. MrazeksVengeance VENGEANCE

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    I am just gonna warn that anyone badmouthing Francouz in my presence is doing so at their own risk.
     
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  13. Gocanes0506 Kayleigh McEnany‘s hockey fan twin

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    Who?
     
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  14. MrazeksVengeance VENGEANCE

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    This. I get super tribal when it comes to Czech goalies. Surprise, surprise.
     
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  15. DaveG Noted Jerk

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    I mean both fair takes.

    That said I was also 100% onboard the Francouz train when he was available. He and VV were my #1 and 2 in goalie mancrushes that season. It's funny we always seem to be in the running for these guys but never the ones to get them.
     
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  16. MrazeksVengeance VENGEANCE

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    People act like the guy is new, but he’s represented us at Worlds and he was a stud in KHL. Yes he’s new to NA, but he’s not coming out of nowhere.
     
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  17. Vagrant The Czech Condor

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    there's an incredibly specific role that the team has identified as far as what they're wanting out of the type of player that fensore is and my supposition is that this year would be viewed as a net positive for him despite some tough transition moments. the good thing is that many of those were counteracted to a degree by flashes of what could be on the way. he started out the year pretty tough, but he was able to hang on and make adjustments that started manifesting on the scoresheet.

    the style that they want from a defender like this is as a trap breaker. systems in the league now are focusing a lot on the defensive blueline in a literal sense making that the 4th and goal line. you'll see teams put 3 on the line spaced out appropriately by the time the puck arrives to the attacking zone. each player takes about a third of the width of the rink and reacts laterally to the attempted point of entry. once the puck is stopped, the player either has to dump and go off or kick it back to the defender who made the outlet and try to time him at full speed and just puncture that defensive structure by attacking a point on the line that the defense has vacated before adjustment happens, if any of that makes sense. the ideal player for that role is one that can stickhandle in a phone booth and has the straight line speed to slingshot from the point of first denial on entry. it's especially prominent on the powerplay, but the same basic concepts are starting to be seen at even strength also.

    this goes back to the transition to positionless hockey (stop groaning!) where skill and speed in the 2nd level of attack can break that trap with pure speed if they can navigate their lane correctly. vancouver and colorado have been doing that with hughes and makar. the benefit in having a player at top speed gain the zone against flat footed defenders with enough wiggle to to freeze the second level of defense after they get the line is just plain disruptive.

    for fensore, that high risk kind of game is going to take some time because it's a style of game that takes a ton of confidence and more risk than you commonly see freshmen take. the presence of farrance as perhaps the best on the collegiate level of doing exactly what was described above was something of double edged sword. fensore got an up close and personal exhibition on how to play that role from him, but it limited fensore's usage in that capacity. if farrance leaves the program to turn professional, you should see a dramatic uptick in fensore's counting stats. taking a college player that has some things to sort out but might be dynamic by the time they are a junior is a dangerous game, so hopefully carolina is establishing that relationship early. my feeling is that when fensore breaks through, he's going to break through hard. his speed and hands are nhl caliber but he needs refining. honka is in a similar boat across the atlantic.
     
  18. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Toronto's 1st round pick is at a bit of a tipping point with both Pittsburgh and Edmonton down 1-2.

    If Edmonton, Pittsburgh, and Toronto all lose their play-ins that would give the Canes a pick at either #12 or #13 depending on the winner of the FLA/NYI series. Which would make it good that EDM/PIT lost as they better Toronto's pick by taking up the #14 and #15 spot.
    If Edmonton and Pittsburgh loses their play-ins but Toronto wins then that would give the Canes a pick up into the #21-22 range depending on FLA/NYI. Which would make it bad that EDM/PIT lost as they jump ahead of TOR in the Draft order.

    This would be assuming the 87.5% chance that Toronto didn't win the lottery if they lost their play-in.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020 at 11:18 AM
  19. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    Let's go Jackets!
     
  20. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    #12 or #13 is a pretty sweet spot. Could catch a falling Perfetti, Askarov, or Lundell. Alternatively the Canes could have their pick of the next tier of forwards including Jarvis, Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Zary, Quinn, and Holloway. Or they could trade back, gain even more Draft capital, and pick a guy they were preparing to take around ~#19 when the Draft nearly happened in June.

    It's a nice spot to be able to sit back and root against Toronto for the rest of the play-ins while not worrying about the Canes.
     
  21. Big Daddy Cane Lion Reaves

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    At least the pick New York owns drops a spot if Montreal wins. That pick is at 19 now. It would go to 20 in that scenario. For every RR team not named Dallas that makes the Conference Finals, it goes down another spot. Of course, if this team goes on another deep run, it's 27-31.

    There was some fretting by this fanbase and some excitement on the other side about that pick not having lottery protection. It will probably turn out to be a ho-hum pick in the early to early-mid 20s.
     
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  22. SlavinAway Registered Jerk Sponsor

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    And the only thing we gave up for the pick in the first place is a few Benjamin's out of Dundon's wallet.
     
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  23. GIN ANTONIC Registered User

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    Well we’ve got a bit more of an idea where we’ll be potentially picking now.

    62.5% chance at pick #13
    25% chance of pick #14
    12.5% chance of no 1st round pick this year (Leafs win lottery and we get 2021 1st instead)

    So who we taking???
     
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    A very good player.
     
  25. Gocanes0506 Kayleigh McEnany‘s hockey fan twin

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    Depends who falls.
    Askarov
    Mercer
    Jarvis

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade down with NJ if our guy goes before 13th / 14th.
     
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