OT: Washington Football Team 2021 Offseason Thread 2: Roster Roulette

[Neil Racki]

Heh, touche. But actually the NFL guard cap hits these days are all creeping up above $15M, not just those two. And into 2022 and beyond, the trend continues.

Also, I'm not sure it will take 5/90/50 to get it done. I've seen 4/60/35 as what it will take, so we will just have to see what he ends up at, either here or elsewhere.

Bottom like to me is, you don't rebuild the Hogs by cheaping out and hoping 4th rounders become something they've never shown. Scherff's deal may seem expensive today, but he'll be well under market when the deal ends.

End of the day, if they sign Scherff to 15 per, I’m fine with it. I like him, he is one of our few studs. We usually have 8-10m in unused cap per year anyway.
But in a perfect roster building world, guards don’t get double digit money.
I thought they offered him 14 per last year and he declined. anything more than 15 ... idk.

 

[kicksavedave]

it’s beyond dumb, but look who we are, the WFT....so bad for so long, fans embrace bad moves lol...

Right Guard Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

No one is suggesting a guard should be the highest cap hit on the team, other positions can and will have higher hits. But the best OL on the team by far having the highest cap hit on the OL, that's not dumb, its how you keep your best players. Letting All Pro's walk over a few million is not how you build a great OL.

And the numbers from Overthecap don't paint the whole picture. Sportrac shows the future years which shows average values in a much more accurate light.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

End of the day, if they sign Scherff to 15 per, I’m fine with it. I like him, he is one of our few studs. We usually have 8-10m in unused cap per year anyway.
But in a perfect roster building world, guards don’t get double digit money.
I thought they offered him 14 per last year and he declined. anything more than 15 ... idk.

I’m with you....much more than 15 and he can walk.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No one is suggesting a guard should be the highest cap hit on the team, other positions can and will have higher hits. But the best OL on the team by far having the highest cap hit on the OL, that's not dumb, its how you keep your best players. Letting All Pro's walk over a few million is not how you build a great OL.

And the numbers from Overthecap don't paint the whole picture. Sportrac shows the future years which shows average values in a much more accurate light.

I think the picture was just fine. You can see position salaries and cap # through 2024....

 

[kicksavedave]

I think the picture was just fine. You can see position salaries and cap # through 2024....

Then you would have seen that $15M would have put Scherff around 5th or 6th among guards in 21,22,23, right? Right around where he belongs. Zach Martin's avg per year is $14, but his hits in the next few years will be up around $17. Same with Brooks and some others.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Then you would have seen that $15M would have put Scherff around 5th or 6th among guards in 21,22,23, right? Right around where he belongs. Zach Martin's avg per year is $14, but his hits in the next few years will be up around $17. Same with Brooks and some others.

I think you should note (if you didn’t) the careful distinction in cap hit vs cash spent each year....some of the top guys, that margin is significant in some years. And deals are reworked so often in the NFL, not sure how accurate anyone can be about what the real cap hits will be in 2 years to suggest 18 mil will be a bargain or even good value down the road.

15 cap hit is fine, 16- 18 is not IMO.

If he doesn’t want to sign, I might just franchise him, eat 1-2 more of his last prime years and be done with him.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

If you didn't want to give up the assets for DeShaun Watson, would you do it for the exact same asking price for Russell Wilson?

No. Wilson is 5 years older and after reading that The Athletic article brings a lot of drama and entitlement.

Edit: Wilson is 32 so 7 years older than Watson.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think you should note (if you didn’t) the careful distinction in cap hit vs cash spent each year....some of the top guys, that margin is significant in some years. And deals are reworked so often in the NFL, not sure how accurate anyone can be about what the real cap hits will be in 2 years to suggest 18 mil will be a bargain or even good value down the road.

15 cap hit is fine, 16- 18 is not IMO.

If he doesn’t want to sign, I might just franchise him, eat 1-2 more of his last prime years and be done with him.

I fully get all that, and its part of why people worrying right now about how much we're going to pay him are missing the more important issue - how much is guaranteed and how much flexibility does the team have to dump future years or restructure. We could give him a deal that makes him the highest paid guard by $2M if you look at total AAV, and people would be howling mad around the internets. But if he's guaranteed only so much of that and its backloaded, it becomes meaningless, so we have to look only at what he's guaranteed to count against the cap. We could give him a fat deal right now and cut him in 2023 and eat some cap hit, then when we look back it could be he was the 6th highest paid LG over that term, and it would be a fair outcome.

My main point is, we need to keep him, and the numbers will sort themselves out. I'd rather lock him up for 3-4 years but I would easily franchise him if a deal can't be done.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But it won’t be backloaded really, it would just keep getting reworked at some point.....

He’s going to get a crap ton of guaranteed money up front. I’d go as high as 16 per on caphit initially and say thanks for your service if he’s not willing to sign.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Im not a huge Villanueva fan either and I probably sign someone else at another position and just ride with Lucas but his position, LT > RG. Guards are plug and play position imo. Weve been able to find good production last 2 offseasons signing good value Gs in Flowers and Schweitzer.

You pay QB, LT, WR, CB 15M plus.

You dont pay a damn guard 15M plus and Scherff is looking for like 18M AAv? For a guard? I understand OL is important and BS is our best OL player ... but hes also a guard.

Besides ... weve been drafting 4th round guards for this very reason. Let Martin and Charles or some Schweitzer clone battle it out for G, take the 3R comp pick and use that 15-18M on a LB or WR or CB.

Where did it say he was looking for 18m a year? That’s the tag, right. I get that. It’s slotted, nothing anyone can do about it.

but annually, as in long term? Never read or heard that. Anywhere.

If he wants 15m for 4 years and he’s got a clause that gets him there w games played? Sure. Why not? So we pinch him for 13m a year and chase off our best home grown lineman over 1% of the cap? Whose an utmost team guy and an anchor to the squad?

doesn’t sound smart to me.

 

[Ridley Simon]

My half-assed draft update:

Still like Mac Jones.

Prefer both Rondale and Elijah Moore to Toney if #19 is spent at WR. The first two get separation and break open plays. Toney has one excellent first juke but I don't think it'll translate to more than a gadget Mecole Hardman type.

Nick Bolton is a beast at the LB position that I think is getting overlooked bc of Parsons.

Eichenberg would make a great LT/RT pick at #51 if he drops.

Agreed on WR. Do not want Toney at 19. Sure, I may look stupid saying that in a year or 2, but whatever — wouldn’t be the first or last time.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Resigning Brandon Scherff to a 5yr/90M/50M guaranteed is literally throwing away your last two 4th round picks.

Pointing out that Howie Roseman and Jerry Jones think paying guards 15M plus ... is not a good argument for why signing Scherff to 15M plus is the right decision.

Its a guard. I love Scherff ... but hes a guard. We got the best years out of him. Time to move on and not lock yourself into dead cap nightmare 2 years from now.

Literally the second least important and easiest position to fill next to running back.

A f***ing guard.

Again — why are we fixated on 5/18per? Where has that been mentioned as what “has to happen”?

did I miss something?

I would bet it will be 5/72.5/37m and that would be assuming be plays most of the games each season. Any season under 12-14 starts will be discounted.

I think you are peering over the edge of the cliff, and it’s taken your brain from you

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Aside from not being a big upgrade and likely being too expensive, Villanueva went to West Point so I'm a hard no on him.

That said, I begrudgingly have to give him credit. He was recruited to West Point as a tight end, then played on the DL his freshman year before converting to LT and starting and playing at LT his sophomore and junior years and then being asked again, as a team captain no less, to switch positions his senior year to WR. He was a 6'9" prior TE/DL/LT WR his senior year, which was a sight to see. And he's a Bronze Star winner with a combat "V" for valor for his actions in Afghanistan as a Ranger.

But most importantly, he went 0-4 against Navy.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

My half-assed draft update:

Still like Mac Jones.

Prefer both Rondale and Elijah Moore to Toney if #19 is spent at WR. The first two get separation and break open plays. Toney has one excellent first juke but I don't think it'll translate to more than a gadget Mecole Hardman type.

Nick Bolton is a beast at the LB position that I think is getting overlooked bc of Parsons.

Eichenberg would make a great LT/RT pick at #51 if he drops.

I like Mac Jones as well. However, something tells me he's going top 10, especially after Matt Rhule got to watch him up close. As for who they chose at 19, I'm fine with the best player available approach. If it's a corner, cool. If it's a wide receiver, cool. If it's a linebacker, cool. But I think a quarterback is out in the first. I fully expect that they're going to stick with the current quarterhacks under contract.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I like Mac Jones as well. However, something tells me he's going top 10, especially after Matt Rhule got to watch him up close. As for who they chose at 19, I'm fine with the best player available approach. If it's a corner, cool. If it's a wide receiver, cool. If it's a linebacker, cool. But I think a quarterback is out in the first. I fully expect that they're going to stick with the current quarterhacks under contract.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Smith is gone. No way he goes public with the comments about Ron not wanting him and him f***ing up Ron’s plans if he thinks he’s back.

 

[kicksavedave]

I see more than a few mocks with Mac Jones going to WFT at 19. One scouting report I saw on him said he was not very effective on the run (duh) but that when he was under pressure, he was actually phenomenal. His completion ratio when being pressured in the pocket was outstanding, which makes one think he's making good quick reads and processing information quickly under duress, or his receivers are just ridiculously open all the time... and its probably a little of both.

 

[max21]

I personally hope Smith is gone, I thank him for his contributions and his story is amazing seems like a great guy but uhm yeah I want more cap space.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I see more than a few mocks with Mac Jones going to WFT at 19. One scouting report I saw on him said he was not very effective on the run (duh) but that when he was under pressure, he was actually phenomenal. His completion ratio when being pressured in the pocket was outstanding, which makes one think he's making good quick reads and processing information quickly under duress, or his receivers are just ridiculously open all the time... and its probably a little of both.

As mentioned, I certainly hope that's who Washington drafts. If he makes it to 19, they should be running up to the podium. I get that he isn't as mobile as a guy like Fields, but Rhule and others have already stated that his mobility is much better than what scouts saw. I was also reading about his stats under pressure and I think his touchdown to interception ratio was something like 13:2. On top of it, this article here, Treash: Alabama QB Mac Jones has orchestrated what is arguably the best passing attack in college football history | NFL Draft | PFF, compares Jones' performance to that of Joe Burrow and Jones beats him in every category but passer rating under pressure. And before people start on about Mac's offensive teammates, I'm pretty certain Burrow had: Edwards-Helaire, Jefferson, Chase, and Marshall Jr to throw to and he had a great offensive line he played behind as well, so it's not as if Burrow didn't benefit from that as well.

 

[kicksavedave]

I was also reading about his stats under pressure and I think his touchdown to interception ratio was something like 13:2. On top of it, this article here, Treash: Alabama QB Mac Jones has orchestrated what is arguably the best passing attack in college football history | NFL Draft | PFF, compares Jones' performance to that of Joe Burrow and Jones beats him in every category but passer rating under pressure. And before people start on about Mac's offensive teammates, I'm pretty certain Burrow had: Edwards-Helaire, Jefferson, Chase, and Marshall Jr to throw to and he had a great offensive line he played behind as well, so it's not as if Burrow didn't benefit from that as well.

Reading that article, talking about his accuracy in tight windows (double that of Fields, higher rate than Tua last year), talking about his limiting negative plays, his low rate of uncatchable deep balls (way better than Burrow) and his performance under pressure, yeah I'm in agreement, they cannot let him slip past them. I'd even contemplate moving up a few slots for him depending on how the draft plays out.

Mac or bust in 2021!!!

 

[EroCaps]

I like Mac Jones as well. However, something tells me he's going top 10, especially after Matt Rhule got to watch him up close. As for who they chose at 19, I'm fine with the best player available approach. If it's a corner, cool. If it's a wide receiver, cool. If it's a linebacker, cool. But I think a quarterback is out in the first. I fully expect that they're going to stick with the current quarterhacks under contract.

Kyle Allen or Heineke? Horrible.

This is Year 2 of Rivera and they know they need a franchise guy.

I would be shocked if they don't address the position.

 

[kicksavedave]

Kyle Allen or Heineke? Horrible.

This is Year 2 of Rivera and they know they need a franchise guy.

I would be shocked if they don't address the position.

I think they want to address it, but shopping for "franchise QBs" isn't like shopping for 3rd string LBs. As we've seen they cost a fortune to trade for, and drafting one is a crapshoot, especially at 19. They've inquired about several of the names being rumored out there but thats mega trades are so hard to pull off. We just have to wait for the draft to see if they like Mac Jones or Lance or one of the QBs, and if one of them even fall to us.

Point is, they want to address it but its not always easy. I doubt they will be happy to go into 2021 with Allen and Heneken and Smith.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Kyle Allen or Heineke? Horrible.

This is Year 2 of Rivera and they know they need a franchise guy.

I would be shocked if they don't address the position.

So your position is that the team needs to force the issue, regardless of anything else?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The reality is, they’re not really on the clock to win a Champion until they get THE GUY under center.

You’re just spinning your wheels, aging out your good younger, more inexpensive guys....


This is the same old argument.....

Some believe they shouldn’t pay a hefty price to get the guy, and some realize it’s the same old Washington cycle until they do....(get the guy, not necessarily overpay)....


So they need to get that guy in this draft. If that means moving up, they should. It’s either that or you overpay for the proven guy.

doing neither.....is pure WFT.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The reality is, they’re not really on the clock to win a Champion until they get THE GUY under center.

You’re just spinning your wheels, aging out your good younger, more inexpensive guys....


This is the same old argument.....

Some believe they shouldn’t pay a hefty price to get the guy, and some realize it’s the same old Washington cycle until they do....(get the guy, not necessarily overpay)....


So they need to get that guy in this draft. If that means moving up, they should. It’s either that or you overpay for the proven guy.

doing neither.....is pure WFT.

who is arguing against this? I’d love to hear any single one poster that is?

or will it be “I don’t want to name names!” (Which means there aren’t any)