Washed up...

[Byrddog]

Only three teams in the NHL averaged 3 or more goals a game last season. Pittsburgh (3.33), Boston and Philadelphia (3.17 each). We averaged 2.83/game. Averaging 3 goals a game throughout a season rarely happens. Basically every team will average between 2 and 3 a game. The Kings were actually second-to-last in goals per game last year, they just happened to catch fire at the right time. Philly and Pittsburgh also gave up more goals than we did, which is a factor in my mind of just how we play. We play a defensive style and hope to get as much offensive contributions as possible.

Offense gets noticed but defense wins games. Two of those top three teams in offense didn't get out of the first round, while the Kings won the Cup.


Yeah I'm trying to not worry too much about it right now. We started off really badly last year also and I think the way we're playing right now is a lot better than the struggling we had last season. Right now we just aren't catching many breaks. Last year we were just outplayed all the time.

Ok I get it.. Let me put it another way with the current roster I am not comfortable with the offensive production to compete this year with the western confrence. It will take 3 goals on any given night in the west to get a win. Florida and Columbus are the two teams in the league with poorer goal production.

And while its early in the season when will you be concerned???
In 7 games 1/4 of the season is done So Feb 10 will be game 10 is that the time to get concerned? theres a real chance that on the morning of feb 13th the Preds have 10 points or less. Its probably going to take 60 point to make playoffs so that means 50 points in 38 games or playing .6578 hockey.

So when will you become concerned.

 

[Drake744]

Ok I get it.. Let me put it another way with the current roster I am not comfortable with the offensive production to compete this year with the western confrence. It will take 3 goals on any given night in the west to get a win. Florida and Columbus are the two teams in the league with poorer goal production.

And while its early in the season when will you be concerned???
In 7 games 1/4 of the season is done So Feb 10 will be game 10 is that the time to get concerned? theres a real chance that on the morning of feb 13th the Preds have 10 points or less. Its probably going to take 60 point to make playoffs so that means 50 points in 38 games or playing .6578 hockey.

So when will you become concerned.

I'll be concerned when we start consistently looking bad on a nightly basis. There's more to the game than wins and losses through the course of the season. Obviously wins and losses matter in the end, but the way these things happen can make us either more or less optimistic. We got badly outplayed in St. Louis and we all know that, but the other four games we've played pretty well in my mind. I mean we do have a point in four of our five games. That is a good sign after all. I look back to last year when we struggled out of the gate and we looked reeeeally bad. I don't feel the same way right now this season.

However one thing I'll say will start to concern me isn't necessarily "Oh we aren't scoring get new players!", it's the execution and gameplan of the offense. We're last in the league right now in shots per game (although only 5 games in, and 13 against STL really drags that number down) and I think that's a bigger problem than the players we have. We don't look bad in my mind, we just look rusty and out of sync at times. Although we're last in shots/game, we're near the top in fewest allowed. Honestly I think we're just playing a very defensive style game right now. It's not going to be this way the whole season, even though we cant ALWAYS be good. I think the kinks will get worked out and we'll be fine.

A flat performance tomorrow though, against a 1-4 Phoenix team in a building that will probably have no more than 7,000 fans in it, and I may start to crank up the panic meter a little. Or the annoyance meter at the very least.

 

[tserberis*]

I'll be really impressed if we score four+ in more then 10 games this season...

 

[triggrman]

I'm wondering after we lost Suter if that idea lost some steam within the organization. I'm not against it, but defensive depth is a little more scarce than it has been.

Defensive depth through the organization is still there.

Weber
Klein
Ellis
Josi
Blum
Ekholm

are all below 30 How much depth do you need?

 

[Paranoid Android]

What we need to do is trade a defensive prospect for an offensive one. Blum or Ekholm for a guy on the verge of being NHL ready...

Problem is these types of trades rarely happen. Occasionally you'll see struggling forward prospects swapped, but not F for D prospects. GMs don't like to trade off NHL ready forwards because you can basically never have enough of them.

 

[Byrddog]

People make overlook the Yotes game due to there record but they have scored 17 goals but allowed 20. They pretty much have the opposite problem of the preds. There goaltending has came back down to earth and there D is suspect. But true to form I expect they play well against the Preds. After that game the Kings are hungry and are gonna break out at some point and the Sharks are just destroying teams Marleau is as hot as he has ever been and he KILLs the Preds. Then on the way home the NHL says here Preds have another go at the Blues. Gee thanks NHL.

I think your right the game tomorrow is critical. I would have bet the farm that the SOG would have been addressed before the Anaheim game but they only put 21 shots on a first time starter. Were not going to see a change in the system nor a significant signing even if #27 is out for the year.

 

[Drake744]

Defensive depth through the organization is still there.

Weber
Klein
Ellis
Josi
Blum
Ekholm

are all below 30 How much depth do you need?

I didn't say we weren't deep still I was just wondering if the organization would've felt more comfortable making a deal with both Weber and Suter on board, but, I guess since it never happened the answer is probably just no. But I would say you can never really have too much. And who knows maybe when Poile floats those names out there he's not getting any offers he likes. I mean, if I was a GM I wouldn't exactly be giving out a decent player for Blum.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Things we've been told since day 1...

1. Poile will build through the draft. He will stockpile puck moving defensemen and eventually trade that depth to fill holes in other areas.

2. Barry Trotz is a great coach who is basically guaranteed to be better than any other coach that could be brought in to replace him. Players around the league respect Trotz so much that almost anyone would love the chance to play for him.

3. Nashville is a great market that players love to play in because there isn't a lot of pressure and they can be relatively anonymous away from the rink.

Yet when any sort of changes to the team or the staff are brought up, there is always some excuse for the Preds...

-It's soooo difficult to pull off trades in the NHL
-Nobody wants to trade for player type X
-Nobody wants to trade away player type Y
-It's moronic to get into the free agency game because you're guaranteed to grossly overpay.
-A lot of players don't want to sign in a market like Nashville
-We have a lot of PMD, but we'll need to hold on to them because there are holes coming up in the blueline in the next 4-5 years.


At some point, there has to stop being excuses and start being results. This team when they're focused and getting some bounces can be really good and go on long stretches where they are a top 5 team in the NHL, and if they get lucky to have a favorable matchup in the playoffs they can even advance. But there is never that feeling that the pieces are there to really be a serious contender to win a championship.

There has to be some sort of offensive firepower added to the roster, somehow, someway. The Preds need a real offensive center and a real goal scoring winger if they are ever going to be in that next tier of legit threats to win a Cup. It's not coming through Milwaukee, Watson is the best thing we've got coming up and he's probably going to be a nice player but a lot more of the same thing we've already got.

I'm not sure what David Poile's salary is, but I have a feeling that he makes an awful lot of money to be going on 15 years without supplying the roster with scoring forwards.

 

[Jarnberg]

Things we've been told since day 1...

1. Poile will build through the draft. He will stockpile puck moving defensemen and eventually trade that depth to fill holes in other areas.

2. Barry Trotz is a great coach who is basically guaranteed to be better than any other coach that could be brought in to replace him. Players around the league respect Trotz so much that almost anyone would love the chance to play for him.

3. Nashville is a great market that players love to play in because there isn't a lot of pressure and they can be relatively anonymous away from the rink.

Yet when any sort of changes to the team or the staff are brought up, there is always some excuse for the Preds...

-It's soooo difficult to pull off trades in the NHL
-Nobody wants to trade for player type X
-Nobody wants to trade away player type Y
-It's moronic to get into the free agency game because you're guaranteed to grossly overpay.
-A lot of players don't want to sign in a market like Nashville
-We have a lot of PMD, but we'll need to hold on to them because there are holes coming up in the blueline in the next 4-5 years.


At some point, there has to stop being excuses and start being results. This team when they're focused and getting some bounces can be really good and go on long stretches where they are a top 5 team in the NHL, and if they get lucky to have a favorable matchup in the playoffs they can even advance. But there is never that feeling that the pieces are there to really be a serious contender to win a championship.

There has to be some sort of offensive firepower added to the roster, somehow, someway. The Preds need a real offensive center and a real goal scoring winger if they are ever going to be in that next tier of legit threats to win a Cup. It's not coming through Milwaukee, Watson is the best thing we've got coming up and he's probably going to be a nice player but a lot more of the same thing we've already got.

I'm not sure what David Poile's salary is, but I have a feeling that he makes an awful lot of money to be going on 15 years without supplying the roster with scoring forwards.

You forgot to add that we can't draft them because we've never have a good spot to pick. Also making trades will guarantee you to end up like Columbus, Edmonton or the Islanders.

 

[triggrman]

I agree. However, I also think some problems are with Trotz system. Look at how many players struggle offensively in their 2nd or 3rd year here.

Trotz has no patience with turnovers, which are a bad side effect for true offensive players.

 

[PredsV82]

And we're going on about 9 consecutive seasons of saying this exact same thing, yet it never happens. Our GM is very smart, and makes a lot of smart and safe decisions with our assets... yet at the same time that mindset seems to handcuff him from doing other things that we can all see make total sense.

Basically, Poile is great at building a stockpile of two-way 3rd liners and puck moving defensemen with the premise that those players are coveted around the league and make good bargaining chips... but if it came down to it and he did move those assets for some more offensive minded talent then our stockpile would no longer resemble the Poile trademark and that might not be something he's comfortable with.

This is not a direct criticism of the team's record to start this season, but an observation of Poile's M.O. over the course of his Predators tenure.

did you ever think that maybe Poile operates the way he does because this market wont tolerate the three or four years of absolute mind-numbing suckage that preceeded the recent rise of teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago?

these go for broke deals(assuming they can even be made, which is far from certain) either work spectacularly or fail spectacularly.

Poile does quite well with what he's got to work with, and if you'd rather us be Columbus or Minnesota, well have at it...

and before you say "oh thats what all you Poile defenders say" , well, we say it because its true...

 

[Legionnaire11]

It's true? You know 100% that if Poile tries to make improvements to the offense that the Preds will turn into Columbus?

If Poile is really one of the elite GM's that we always say he is, then surely he can also identify and acquire offensive talent that won't lead to a total collapse of the franchise.

 

[triggrman]

Why can't it end up like Dallas or San Jose? Neither has had crippling rebuild years and both seem to find offensive players. Ducks, Sens and Kings, are other examples. It's funny the Blues and the Kings had GMs that commented on building like Nashville, both seem to have done it better.

 

[Legionnaire11]

and don't get me wrong here, i'm not saying we need a change in overall organization philosophy. We don't have to tank for MacKinnon and build through multiple #1 picks. Just find a way to bring in a couple of players who can put the puck in the net.

Right now this team is scoring 1.6 goals per game, and not counting shootout goals, they are giving up 2.6 per game. The second number isn't bad, it's in line with what the Preds have traditionally done and I feel like if they are holding teams to 2 goals more often than not, that they should be putting up wins. But the offense is so incredibly inept that even 2.6 is too much to overcome.

 

[triggrman]

I still think it's a system issue myself. How does an entire team regress offensively like this? It's not just this season either, it started toward the last quarter of last season. If it wasn't for the powerplay last season our offensive numbers would had been awful.

 

[PredsV82]

It's true? You know 100% that if Poile tries to make improvements to the offense that the Preds will turn into Columbus?

If Poile is really one of the elite GM's that we always say he is, then surely he can also identify and acquire offensive talent that won't lead to a total collapse of the franchise.

Why can't it end up like Dallas or San Jose? Neither has had crippling rebuild years and both seem to find offensive players. Ducks, Sens and Kings, are other examples. It's funny the Blues and the Kings had GMs that commented on building like Nashville, both seem to have done it better.

you guys slay me... of course it isnt 100% sure that the moves would backfire, but it is almost 100% sure that several consecutive years of columbus-like hockey would likely kill this franchise

and the Blues have been a good team for what, two years after sucking ass for about 4? I know they had at least one top 5 pick which we havent had, well since legwand.... and the Kings were what, one point away from missing the playoffs all together and Lombardi getting fired instead of hoisting a Cup

Dallas hasnt done squat in years, and San Jose has done much the same as Poile, retool as you go without blowing things up.

 

[triggrman]

you guys slay me... of course it isnt 100% sure that the moves would backfire, but it is almost 100% sure that several consecutive years of columbus-like hockey would likely kill this franchise

and the Blues have been a good team for what, two years after sucking ass for about 4? I know they had at least one top 5 pick which we havent had, well since legwand.... and the Kings were what, one point away from missing the playoffs all together and Lombardi getting fired instead of hoisting a Cup

Dallas hasnt done squat in years, and San Jose has done much the same as Poile, retool as you go without blowing things up.

If I ever need a spin doctor, I'll be sure to call you.. St. Louis barely missed the playoffs 3 years ago and had a 2 year stretch where injuries were a major issue.

You know you're right though, damn us for expecting better.. We should always except status quo.

 

[Byrddog]

I still think it's a system issue myself. How does an entire team regress offensively like this? It's not just this season either, it started toward the last quarter of last season. If it wasn't for the powerplay last season our offensive numbers would had been awful.

This is a very good point. If you do not play the system you find yourself playing 4th line minutes, scratched or leaving your contract for the KHL. For the most part veterans with offensive games have not lasted either, even though they have an established NHL game. Heck some become the whipping boy of even the fans Dumont is an example. The guy offensivly was as good as any player on the team was given time to change his game did not the was incrementally move down on the depth chart and bought out. He was not an elite player but had abilities far superior to the pile of 4th liners that continued on.

It basically comes down to one thing, elite players have NTC's UFA's have choice where there going to play. Nashville has not shown in the past to be a career enhancing place to be. Nashvilles strong point has been to draft and train top pair defensemen and thired line offensive players. The one offensive gem that came thru the system soured on the situation and sold out to the KHL. Not every top offensive prospect works out. For the most part our top offensive prospects seem to be at best 3rd line talent including Austin Watson. Some here contend he is an elite prospect while most scouting reports outside the Preds system place his potential to be a 3rd liner prospect bordering on 2nd line.

This is the poop on what Hockeys future thinks.
"Watson is a solid two-way centerman but with the versatility to play the wing and the shutdown role against the opposition's best forwards. He can take over games with his effort and determination. The big forward does all the little things well in order to win hockey games: blocking shots, making the big hit, winning the important face-offs and scoring the timely goals. The first round pick has good offensive skills but does not project into a big goal scorer at the NHL level just a solid shutdown center with some offensive upside. Watson is the type of player that a team needs to win playoff games.

This is not going to help the current situation even when he is ready. His shutdown role will probably earn him 1st line duties here. Why its because its what Trotz does.

 

[token grinder]

Why can't it end up like Dallas or San Jose? Neither has had crippling rebuild years and both seem to find offensive players. Ducks, Sens and Kings, are other examples. It's funny the Blues and the Kings had GMs that commented on building like Nashville, both seem to have done it better.

in fairness, Dallas had the luxury of being pretty good on the move south and has maintained and SJ sucked a few years, and they fleeced Jumbo Joe from Boston which made a huge difference.

STL scouting department is better than ours I think. They did well on the back end with Pietrangelo and Cole, but have peiced it together via trade (johnson for Shattenkirk) and keeing the right guys like Jackman. Where they blow us away is finding offensive talent, or rather the right talent-Backes, Oshie, Perron, Berglund, Taransenko Blow ours away right now as far as drafted talent. We have guys with simialr qualities in Wilson, Budish, watson, Hornquist, (had) Radulov smith, but aren't there yet. STL also had the luxury of letting them play top minutes while they had no answer in net. A perfect Storm for them.

I think we are a victim of our own success a bit here too. We never have that top 5 pick. But we haven't found that 5th-6th round gem that is an all world player. Hornquist is nice and I think any team would take 30 goals a year out of the 7th round, but I am talking those late gems like Detroit had, or a Jaime Benn. Part of me thinks we keep drafting forwards in those mid rounds hoping we find a faster, more skilled erat in the 4th, or that center that always is lacking in the 6th.

 

[token grinder]

If I ever need a spin doctor, I'll be sure to call you.. St. Louis barely missed the playoffs 3 years ago and had a 2 year stretch where injuries were a major issue.

You know you're right though, damn us for expecting better.. We should always except status quo.

they had top 5 picks in 06 and 08 (Eric Johnson turned into Stewart and Shattenkirk) and Pietrangelo. They have hit with their first rounders in a big way though with Tarensenko, Oshie, Shwartz, who I forgot about earlier, They missed the playoffs 5 out of the last 7 years and accumulated a ton of talent like they were supposed to and made the right trade in bringing in Halak for Eller-another 1st rounder. We should be envious of how they built their team, becasue we had some mid picks and they haven't panned out yet (or will) We also miss a couple of top talents becasue we made a push and came away with Brenden Witt and Mike Fisher.

I fear we end up having 25 years of making the playoffs like they did, but suffer the same fate of winning nothing because we maintain a high standard, yet never have enough to get over the top.

 

[deanwormer]

I think one of the things everyone is forgetting - when it comes to FA choosing Nash as a place to play, etc - is that until very recently, we flat couldn't pay them, we could only get them on-the-cheap. It takes a while to outgrow that; look how unhappy we all get when some wise-ass in canada stills lumps us in with the downtrodden mistakes and says we can't fill our stadium - seems like we should have outgrown that by now, doesn't it? We got Peks and Webs signed - those help set the tone, elite players who stayed. I'm willing to cut Poile a little slack on this off-season since I think he genuinely believed Sutes was staying and that whole thing consumed his time and even if he had a plan B there wasn't time to execute it. (that said, I didn't agree tying up the cash in 3 defenders was a good idea anyway, but that was the plan they all settled on so they needed to execute it.)

This team is a first-round PO team at best and we're not gonna' be a whole lot better than that this year - we need Wilson to continue developing, Josi to make strides, Blum to get his act together, Ellis to keep heading in the right direction, and Smith to blossom. If most of that goes in the right direction this year next year needs to be the season Poile gets that scorer for 3-4 year deal, cause we'll be strong and our old-guys should not have had too much decline. His plan B if he doesn't sign one best be to move Ellis cause seems he's most likely to bring us what we need and be replaced internally. That doesn't happen I just don't see how we get over the hump, unless somewhere we magically get a legit 1st line center and/or a sniper that I just don't see in our system.

 

[Drake744]

I think one of the things everyone is forgetting - when it comes to FA choosing Nash as a place to play, etc - is that until very recently, we flat couldn't pay them, we could only get them on-the-cheap. It takes a while to outgrow that; look how unhappy we all get when some wise-ass in canada stills lumps us in with the downtrodden mistakes and says we can't fill our stadium - seems like we should have outgrown that by now, doesn't it? We got Peks and Webs signed - those help set the tone, elite players who stayed. I'm willing to cut Poile a little slack on this off-season since I think he genuinely believed Sutes was staying and that whole thing consumed his time and even if he had a plan B there wasn't time to execute it. (that said, I didn't agree tying up the cash in 3 defenders was a good idea anyway, but that was the plan they all settled on so they needed to execute it.)

Nashville is probably outgrowing its stigma as a novelty market to an extent. I'm sure a lot of people think it's a fun little place to play on the road, with the weird and crazy fans and Broadway stuff next door but from a "Gee, I'd like to sign and commit to playing here for ____years" standpoint, it's not happening yet. I don't know how seriously people take us as contenders. That's just the feeling I get.