Was 2022-23 a one off year for Jason Robertson?

[Felidae]

With the anonymous player poll voting him as the 3rd most overrated player, and his production dropping significantly. Do you think last year was a one off?

Last season, Robertson finished 7th in goals, 10th in assists, 6th in points and 7th in PPG. A 30 point jump from his previous year.

This year, he's just above a point per game. Which is very similar to the season before he exploded offensively

Interestingly enough, his shooting% was not uncharacteristically high, and the team is actually better offensively 5 on 5 now than it was last season. The PP% hasn't changed much either, going from 5th to 8th best in the league.

So, will 2022-23 be a one off in Robertson's career, or will he have more seasons as a top 10 point producer in the league? Will be interesting to look back at this in a year or two..

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[Peasy]

Will he be a threat to hit 100 points in a season every year? Probably not.

Will he be around ppg for several years? Likely.

Did people expect him to be a consistent 100 point scorer?

 

[Felidae]

Will he be a threat to hit 100 points in a season every year? Probably not.

Will he be around ppg for several years? Likely.

Did people expect him to be a consistent 100 point scorer?

I think there's a middle ground between being "just" a PPG player and being a threat for top 10 in points every year though.

A good example is Gaudreau, who finished top 10 in points 3 times, but each season spread out over 6 years. (I know he only reached 100 points once, but different scoring environments)

Lots of players with a few truly great years but without the yearly consistency of a player like Mackinnon or Kucherov.

 

[Peasy]

I think there's a middle ground between being "just" a PPG player and being a threat for top 10 in points every year though.

A good example is Gaudreau, who finished top 10 in points 3 times, but each season spread out over 6 years. (I know he only reached 100 points once, but different scoring environments)

Lots of players with a few truly great years but without the yearly consistency of a player like Mackinnon or Kucherov.

Yeah I get what youre saying. I just personally dont see Robertson getting multiple 100 point seasons. Even after last year I figured 80-90 would be his norm. Possible he has another 100 point season but I wouldnt bet my life on it. I would have more faith in someone like Nylander hitting 100 again (if he does it this year) in his career than someone like Robertson just based on their abilities, way they can drive a line, and their current situations/deployment.

 

[Dominance]

In a year or two he’ll be a key part of one of the best lines in hockey:

Robertson-Johnston-Stankoven

 

[Regal]

I think it’s likely it’ll end up a career season. He’s very good but not really 109 points good. I think it was one of those years where everything went right and his line had great chemistry. One thing to note about Dallas though is that they spread the minutes out due to depth. If Johnston keeps his progression toward a star and the team loses depth, I could see Robertson having another big year on his wing in more minutes. But I think he’s more of an 80-90ish point guy moving forward.

 

[M88K]

His linemates haven't been as productive as last year. He's had a couple rough stretches of play himself.
I would expect him to be a consistent upper 85-95 point player in most years with the occasional +/- year

 

[2for1PizzaPastuh]

yes and it's good for the rest of the West

unfortunately the rest of the top 9 is loaded regardless

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Depends, right now he is playing 2-5 minutes less than most star players in the league per game. Dallas is too deep to give a single forward 20+ minutes ATOI.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

In a year or two he’ll be a key part of one of the best lines in hockey:

Robertson-Johnston-Stankoven

He’s already part of one of the best lines

 

[chirrrs]

For Robertson, 109 points may well end up his career high. Is he capable of hitting numbers like that again? Sure, but the way this team is set up now versus even just last year, it's just not necessary. Dallas has had some trouble in past playoff series relying too much on their top line. If you could shut down Robertson/Hintz/Pavelski, it really caused problems as the depth just wasn't there. That's not the case this year, and scoring has been way more spread out across all lines. Consider these stats:

2022-23 Regular Season

Robertson - 46G 109P
Benn - 33G 78P
Pavelski - 28G 77P
Hintz - 37G 75P in 73GP
Heiskanen - 11G 73P
Seguin - 50P
Johnston - 41P
Marchment - 31P

You have 5 guys over 70 points, but there's a huge drop between Heiskanen and Seguin, the only other guy to crack 50 last year. You've got two lines plus Miro there doing all the scoring. So when Dallas went to the playoffs, there was concern about having depth scoring. That was of course made worse when Pavelski got injured round one. Here's how that played out:

2022-23 Playoffs

Hintz - 19GP 24P
Robertson - 19GP 18P
Pavelski - 14GP 14P
Domi - 19GP 13P
Heiskanen - 19GP 12P
Benn - 19GP 11P
Dadanov - 16GP 10P
Seguin - 19GP 9P

That's everyone over 0.5 PPG in the playoffs. Still a bit top heavy, with some help from the second line. Now compare that to this season so far:

2023-24 Regular Season (as of 3/31/24)

Robertson - 76P
Pavelski - 63P
Duchene - 62P
Hintz - 62P
Johnston - 59P
Benn - 54P
Marchment - 51P
Seguin - 49P
Heiskanen - 48P
Harley - 40P
Stankoven - 12P in 17GP

Now instead of 5 guys over 70P and 6 over 50P with a huge drop off after that, they're probably going to end up with between 1-4 over 70P, 5 over 60P, and 9 over 50P. Plus, they've got another defenseman over 40P and a rookie playing near a 60 point pace. Domi and Dadanov out, Duchene and Stankoven in. Johnston and Harley have improved significantly. It's just a much more balanced, well rounded team. Now they have three forward lines that are a serious scoring threat. Teams can't just focus on one line or a couple of players. Dallas has gone from 7th in scoring to currently at #2.

To me, that's why Jason's numbers have dropped this year. I don't think it's due to lack of talent or that he was just a flash in the pan, he's just not having to carry the team as much from one game to the next. Sure, he may have also had everything go right last year to put up those numbers, but I think if the goal each season was to see just how many points Robertson could score, he probably could break 100 several times. It's just not necessary.

tl;dr: Robertson's points dropped because Dallas has spread out their scoring this year far better than last year. They're a much deeper team than they were when he put up 109. Was last year a one of year? I guess maybe by definition, but that has more to do with circumstance than losing a step.

 

[Magic Mittens]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 50 one year, and I could definitely see another 100 point year.

Like other have mentioned, Dallas has a really deep team and they spread the minutes out.

Robertson averages 18:19 TOI

Others over 100 points

Mackinnon - 22:57
McDavid - 21:31
Kucherov - 21:39
Panarin - 20:04
Pasta - 20:01
Rantanen - 23:13

I'm not saying he'd outscore any of these guys, but if Dallas's top line averaged over 20 mins, it's possible he would of finished closer to 90 this season

Also, holy Mack and Rantanen play alot. Rantanen almost averages 5 minutes more a game then Robertson.

 

[Kcb12345]

Wouldn't shock me if he hits 100 again. Especially if he gets to play with Johnston over these next couple of years or if the teams depth takes a hit.

As others have mentioned, Dallas is a deep team and the scoring is spread out, and so are the minutes. Also, his goal scoring is down this year and I don't expect that to continue into future years considering he put up 40+ in the previous 2 seasons.

Even despite all this, he still leads the team in points by a solid amount (13), and I'd consider this a down season for him.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 50 one year, and I could definitely see another 100 point year.

Like other have mentioned, Dallas has a really deep team and they spread the minutes out.

Robertson averages 18:19 TOI

Others over 100 points

Mackinnon - 22:57
McDavid - 21:31
Kucherov - 21:39
Panarin - 20:04
Pasta - 20:01
Rantanen - 23:13

I'm not saying he'd outscore any of these guys, but if Dallas's top line averaged over 20 mins, it's possible he would of finished closer to 90 this season

Also, holy Mack and Rantanen play alot. Rantanen almost averages 5 minutes more a game then Robertson.

Fueled by quinoa

 

[Coffey]

In a year or two he’ll be a key part of one of the best lines in hockey:

Robertson-Johnston-Stankoven

Who the hell are those guys?

 

[HockeyWooot]

He will. Probably not a consistent 100pt forward, rather regularly in the 85-100 pt range with occasional years higher.

I’d be very surprised if last season is his best when all is said and done. Helluva player.

 

[Connor McConnor]

In a year or two he’ll be a key part of one of the best lines in hockey:

Robertson-Johnston-Stankoven

Yeah and he might be the 3rd best player on that line, definitely at best 2nd

 

[oconnor9sean]

You have to consider team scheme into this. I can't remember the last time I've seen a team roll three scoring lines as evenly as Dallas does. It's not automatically Robo's lines coming on whenever there's an offensive zone draw, favorable situation, etc

It's great for Dallas, but it does hurt Robertson's production.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

It will be hard to top, if you watch all of his goals from that season, he was really in the zone shooting, quite a few ranged goals where he sniped the same exact spot inside the left post. That can be hard to recapture season after season though he still has a laser. He does go quiet in games more often than you would expect, he does need teammates that can play drive and help buy him time to get his space.

High level finisher, but situationally dependent for top tier production.